Economies

19 pages, 1048 KB

Open AccessArticle

IMF Austerity in Practice: Lessons from Argentina and Implications for Lebanon’s Economic Recovery

by Johnny Accary, Jessica Abou Mrad and Nour Mohamad Fayad

Economies 2026, 14(4), 146; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies14040146 - 21 Apr 2026

Viewed by 1007

This paper provides a comparative analysis of the economic crises in Argentina and Lebanon to derive policy-relevant lessons for the design of IMF-supported adjustment programs in fragile economies. Using a structured comparative case study approach, the study examines crisis dynamics, policy responses, and [...] Read more.

This paper provides a comparative analysis of the economic crises in Argentina and Lebanon to derive policy-relevant lessons for the design of IMF-supported adjustment programs in fragile economies. Using a structured comparative case study approach, the study examines crisis dynamics, policy responses, and socioeconomic outcomes across both countries, with particular attention given to exchange rate collapse, banking sector distress, public debt, inflation, unemployment, and poverty. The findings suggest that programs centered primarily on macroeconomic stabilization and fiscal austerity, without adequate attention to institutional capacity, social protection, and debt restructuring, risk deepening economic contraction and social vulnerability. The Argentine experience shows that IMF-supported adjustment in institutionally fragile environments may fail to restore confidence or deliver sustainable recovery when reform sequencing is weak and complementary domestic policies are absent. For Lebanon, where the crisis is deeper and compounded by governance failures and geopolitical instability, IMF engagement appears necessary but insufficient on its own. The paper concludes that a sustainable recovery requires a hybrid strategy combining external financial support with country-specific reforms, including exchange rate unification, banking sector restructuring, debt resolution, stronger governance, and targeted social protection. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Macroeconomics, Monetary Economics, and Financial Markets)

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25 pages, 2655 KB

Open AccessFeature PaperArticle

Efficiency in the Hardware Retail Industry: A 22-Year Longitudinal Analysis of Chains Operating in Canada

by Pawoumodom M. Takouda, Mohamed M. S. Abdulkader and Mohamed Dia

Economies 2026, 14(4), 145; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies14040145 - 21 Apr 2026

Viewed by 374

Abstract

Efficiency refers to the performance level corresponding to using minimal inputs to achieve the maximum possible outputs. Despite its importance to the Canadian economy, such performance assessments has rarely been undertaken in the hardware retail industry in recent years. We present the results [...] Read more.

Efficiency refers to the performance level corresponding to using minimal inputs to achieve the maximum possible outputs. Despite its importance to the Canadian economy, such performance assessments has rarely been undertaken in the hardware retail industry in recent years. We present the results of a recent study of the relative efficiencies for three major chains of hardware and renovation retail stores operating in Canada (Home Depot, Lowe’s and Rona). We use the classic and bootstrap data envelopment analysis (DEA) models to measure performance levels over the 22 years from 2000 to 2021. Overall, the firms exhibited high efficiency during this period, and operations management was the primary source of inefficiency. However, an analysis of trends over the 22 years shows that all three companies experienced periods of declining efficiency at the beginning of the study period, followed by a phase of recovery that appears to have accelerated towards the end of the study period. Our longitudinal analysis also indicates that recent shocks and crises have impacted the firms. The succession of crises at the end of the 2000s, the 2007 forestry crisis in Canada, and the 2008 global financial crisis led to the lowest period of efficiency for all the firms, from which they started rebounding in 2011. The specific impact on Rona can explain Lowe’s acquisition of Rona in 2015. However, such a move did not seem to have had a significant improvement beyond accelerating a recovery that had started a few years earlier. This may explain Lowe’s sale of all its Canadian operations in 2022, leading to a new firm called Rona+. Finally, the COVID-19 pandemic also seems to have had a similar effect: accelerating the recovery from the 2008 financial crisis that the firms had started in 2011. Full article

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25 pages, 1926 KB

Open AccessArticle

Servicification in Global Value Chains and Services Trade Restrictions in Asian Economies

by Hiroyuki Taguchi and Ni Lar

Economies 2026, 14(4), 144; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies14040144 - 21 Apr 2026

Viewed by 399

Abstract

Global value chains have recently changed structurally (“servicification”)—that is, service sectors’ involvement in global value chain processes has become more intensive. We quantify services trade restrictions’ contribution to underdevelopment of global value chain servicification across Asian economies—an underexplored area. The study applies the [...] Read more.

Global value chains have recently changed structurally (“servicification”)—that is, service sectors’ involvement in global value chain processes has become more intensive. We quantify services trade restrictions’ contribution to underdevelopment of global value chain servicification across Asian economies—an underexplored area. The study applies the “structural” gravity trade model and constructs panel data based on the 2025 Trade in Value Added and the Services Trade Restrictiveness Index database developed by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. The empirical analysis covers five major service sectors—trade, transport, I&C, finance, and professional services. First, global value chain servicification remains relatively underdeveloped in most emerging and developing Asian economies, particularly across several service categories. Second, services trade restrictions’ presence significantly and negatively affects global value chain servicification’s extent in these economies. Third, these restrictive measures account for approximately 30–60% of servicification’s observed underdevelopment. Regarding policy implications, removing or easing such trade restrictions could substantially promote global value chain servicification, enhancing productivity and integration for emerging and developing Asian economies. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Economic Development)

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18 pages, 2476 KB

Open AccessArticle

Structural Spillovers Among Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold, and U.S. Equities: Evidence from the 2024 Spot ETF Institutionalization Regime

by Wisam Bukaita and Xinrui Li

Economies 2026, 14(4), 143; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies14040143 - 19 Apr 2026

Viewed by 964

Abstract

This study examines dynamic interdependencies and risk transmission among major cryptocurrencies and traditional financial assets, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, U.S. equities, and gold, over the period 2017–2024. Particular attention is given to the structural shift associated with the 2024 U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund [...] Read more.

This study examines dynamic interdependencies and risk transmission among major cryptocurrencies and traditional financial assets, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, U.S. equities, and gold, over the period 2017–2024. Particular attention is given to the structural shift associated with the 2024 U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval, which marked a significant milestone in the institutionalization of cryptocurrency markets. Using daily data, the analysis distinguishes volatility-driven co-movement from structural spillover effects across markets. Dependence structures are modeled using tail-sensitive Student-t copulas applied to GARCH-filtered returns to capture nonlinear and extreme co-movements, while a vector autoregressive framework combined with generalized impulse response functions and Diebold–Yilmaz connectedness measures is employed to evaluate order-invariant shock transmission dynamics across pre- and post-ETF regimes. The results reveal three main findings. First, cryptocurrencies display strong internal dependence and short-horizon contagion, with Bitcoin consistently acting as the dominant transmitter of shocks to Ethereum over an approximately three-day transmission window. Second, linkages between cryptocurrencies and equity markets remain moderate and largely regime-dependent rather than indicative of persistent structural spillovers. Third, gold remains weakly connected throughout the sample, maintaining its role as a diversification asset. Portfolio analysis further indicates that including Bitcoin can reduce portfolio variance by 4–7% and Value-at-Risk by up to 5%, although economic gains are sensitive to transaction costs. Overall, the findings suggest that cryptocurrencies function as a partially segmented asset class, offering conditional diversification benefits despite increasing institutional adoption. Full article

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34 pages, 2425 KB

Open AccessArticle

Economic and Institutional Convergence in Europe (2004–2023): EU Core, New Members, and the Western Balkans

by Goran Lalić and Dragana Trifunović

Economies 2026, 14(4), 142; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies14040142 - 19 Apr 2026

Viewed by 459

Abstract

This paper examines economic and institutional convergence between EU Core, EU New, and Western Balkan countries over the period 2004–2023 using a comprehensive panel dataset and multiple convergence frameworks. Evidence of absolute β-convergence is found, although at a slow pace, while conditional specifications [...] Read more.

This paper examines economic and institutional convergence between EU Core, EU New, and Western Balkan countries over the period 2004–2023 using a comprehensive panel dataset and multiple convergence frameworks. Evidence of absolute β-convergence is found, although at a slow pace, while conditional specifications show that structural and institutional factors explain growth differences; institutional quality appears to affect growth primarily through direct effects rather than through significant interaction-based β-convergence. A Principal Component Analysis-based Institutional Index (PC1) explains 90% of the variance in institutional quality, highlighting its role in shaping cross-country growth differentials rather than directly influencing convergence speed. Group-specific models reveal heterogeneous convergence paths across European regions. EU Core economies exhibit relatively stable convergence patterns, reflecting their proximity to steady-state income levels. In contrast, EU New and Cohesion Economies do not display statistically significant β-convergence, suggesting that catch-up processes are uneven and not uniformly driven by initial income differences. Western Balkan economies show weak and limited convergence patterns, reflecting persistent structural and institutional constraints. Robustness tests (FE/RE, Hausman, VIF, Breusch–Pagan, residual diagnostics) confirm the validity of the results. Findings suggest an important role of institutional quality in supporting long-term growth and the accession process of the Western Balkans. Policy implications highlight the importance of governance reforms, human capital development, and EU integration mechanisms in accelerating convergence. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Economic Development)

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24 pages, 3460 KB

Open AccessArticle

From Prediction to Insight: Understanding Drivers of UK Tourism Demand with Machine Learning

by Athanasia Dimitriadou, Theophilos Papadimitriou and Periklis Gogas

Economies 2026, 14(4), 141; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies14040141 - 18 Apr 2026

Viewed by 472

Abstract

This study forecasts inbound tourism demand for the United Kingdom, using monthly data from February 1989 to February 2020. In the empirical analysis, we evaluate and compare the performance of five machine learning models (decision trees, random forests, XGBoost, and support vector regression [...] Read more.

This study forecasts inbound tourism demand for the United Kingdom, using monthly data from February 1989 to February 2020. In the empirical analysis, we evaluate and compare the performance of five machine learning models (decision trees, random forests, XGBoost, and support vector regression with the RBF and linear kernels) against a more traditional linear SARIMA regression model. Forecasting performance metrics included MSE, RMSE, MAE, R², and MAPE. The SVR RBF kernel model achieves the highest accuracy, with an MAPE of 0.014% on the training set. To enhance model interpretability, feature importance analysis is applied to identify the most influential predictors of tourist arrivals. This research offers significant policy implications, aiding government policymakers and private industry stakeholders in optimizing their planning and decisions, deploying better long-term business strategies and tourism-related services, and optimizing the allocation of public and private resources to support the tourism sector. Full article

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30 pages, 595 KB

Open AccessArticle

Digital Infrastructure and Firm Labor Productivity: Evidence from the Implementation of China’s Labor Contract Law

by Qian Hu, Yong Chen and Lu Zhao

Economies 2026, 14(4), 140; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies14040140 - 16 Apr 2026

Viewed by 607

Abstract

This paper utilizes panel data of Chinese A-share listed manufacturing firms from 2006 to 2022 and measures regional digital infrastructure by the number of internet broadband access ports per capita. It systematically examines the moderating role of digital infrastructure in the relationship between [...] Read more.

This paper utilizes panel data of Chinese A-share listed manufacturing firms from 2006 to 2022 and measures regional digital infrastructure by the number of internet broadband access ports per capita. It systematically examines the moderating role of digital infrastructure in the relationship between labor protection policies and firms’ labor productivity. The findings are as follows: (1) Digital infrastructure exhibits a positive moderating effect on the relationship between the Labor Contract Law and firms’ labor productivity. This conclusion remains generally robust across multiple robustness tests and endogeneity treatments, and the direction of the results remains consistent after applying an instrumental variable approach to alleviate endogeneity concerns. (2) The digital transformation channel exhibits a negative relationship, indicating that compliance pressure associated with the institutional reform generates a short-term “crowding-out effect” on firms’ digital investment; the human capital channel shows a positive relationship, indicating that digital infrastructure strengthens the institutional effect by improving the level of urban human capital. (3) The moderating effect is particularly pronounced in cities with strong digital industry foundations, abundant fiscal resources, and firms that have not received government digital subsidies. These results provide empirical support for optimizing the supporting environment of labor protection policies, accelerating digital infrastructure development, and enhancing enterprise adaptability to institutional changes. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Macroeconomics of the Labour Market)

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19 pages, 325 KB

Open AccessArticle

The Infrastructure Paradox in Ecuador: Public Investment and the Persistence of Territorial Disparities in Cantons with Low Initial Development

by Myriam Alexandra Urbina Poveda, Helen Magdalena Gómez, María Elena Jerez Calero, Erick Cuenca, Arcenio Córdova and Víctor Cuenca

Economies 2026, 14(4), 139; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies14040139 - 15 Apr 2026

Viewed by 726

Abstract

This paper examines the effects of public infrastructure spending across Ecuadorian cantons on adequate employment and the multidimensional poverty rate over the period 2008–2022, assessing whether such spending operated as a mechanism of convergence. The analysis is grounded in the hypothesis that infrastructure [...] Read more.

This paper examines the effects of public infrastructure spending across Ecuadorian cantons on adequate employment and the multidimensional poverty rate over the period 2008–2022, assessing whether such spending operated as a mechanism of convergence. The analysis is grounded in the hypothesis that infrastructure investment yields stronger effects in cantons characterized by lower initial levels of development. The coefficient of primary interest, associated with the interaction between low initial development and infrastructure expenditure, takes a value of −0.9542, which theoretically indicates a substantially larger impact on outcome variables in lagging cantons. This pattern is consistent with convergence theory and with the notion of investment spillovers, often described as a trickle-down process of development. Nevertheless, the estimated effect is marginally significant at the 10% level. In light of these results, the discussion revisits the convergence hypothesis by emphasizing the role of endogenous and institutional factors in shaping inclusive development across Ecuadorian cantons. The discussion underscores the importance of public expenditure quality in Latin America (LATAM) as a critical factor impacting the region’s economic growth, social equity, and overall development. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Economic Development)

27 pages, 664 KB

Open AccessArticle

Digital Connectivity, Financial Development, and Economic Performance in BRICS Economies: Evidence from Robust Panel Estimators and Distributional Dynamics

by Tulkin Imomkulov, Sardor Samiyev, Nuriddin Shanyazov, Zokir Mamadiyarov, Mohichekhra Kurbonbekova, Jurabek Kuralbaev and Oybek Odamboyev

Economies 2026, 14(4), 138; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies14040138 - 15 Apr 2026

Viewed by 692

Abstract

This study explores the drivers of economic growth in the BRICS economies—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—over the period 1994–2024, focusing on the roles of digital infrastructure and financial development. Using a balanced panel, we examine how internet connectivity and access to [...] Read more.

This study explores the drivers of economic growth in the BRICS economies—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—over the period 1994–2024, focusing on the roles of digital infrastructure and financial development. Using a balanced panel, we examine how internet connectivity and access to credit shape growth, both independently and in combination, while accounting for gross fixed capital formation, urbanization, and government expenditure. Given the macro-panel structure, which exhibits heteroskedasticity, serial correlation, and cross-sectional dependence, we employ robust estimation techniques, including Driscoll–Kraay standard errors (DKSE), Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS), and Panel-Corrected Standard Errors (PCSE). To capture potential heterogeneity across different growth scenarios, we further apply the Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR) as a robustness check. Our findings show that both internet connectivity and financial development consistently promote economic growth across all main specifications. Importantly, the interaction between these two factors is also significant, indicating that the benefits of digital infrastructure are stronger in countries with deeper financial systems, and vice versa. Among the control variables, capital accumulation and government spending positively contribute to growth, while urbanization exhibits a negative association, reflecting the structural challenges of rapid urban expansion. MMQR results confirm that these relationships hold across low-, medium-, and high-growth periods, highlighting their broad relevance. These findings highlight the synergistic role of technological and financial development and underscore the importance of integrated policies to sustain long-term, inclusive growth in the BRICS economies. This study suggests that policymakers should adopt integrated strategies that enhance digital connectivity, deepen financial development, and support productive public investment to sustain inclusive and resilient economic growth. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Emerging Trends in the Digital Economy: Opportunities, Challenges, and Implications for Developing Countries)

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31 pages, 1277 KB

Open AccessArticle

Minimum Wage Impacts on Employment in Greece: Estimates for the Period 2016–2024

by Athanasios Nazos, George Konteos, Grigoris Giannarakis and Yakinthi Pavlaki

Economies 2026, 14(4), 137; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies14040137 - 13 Apr 2026

Viewed by 1084

Abstract

This paper aims to provide evidence of the impact on the minimum wage to employment in Greece over the period 2016 to 2024. The main contribution of this paper is the examination of the effects of the minimum wage during a period characterized [...] Read more.

This paper aims to provide evidence of the impact on the minimum wage to employment in Greece over the period 2016 to 2024. The main contribution of this paper is the examination of the effects of the minimum wage during a period characterized by many difficulties and research interest not only nationwide but also across regions with high heterogeneity. The case of Greece is particularly interesting to study during this period as it provides a unique context to explore the effects of minimum wage increases on employment. Greece constitutes a distinctly singular case within the European context due to the exceptional structural characteristics of its labor market. Following a protracted economic crisis, successive waves of labor market reforms, and the additional disruptions generated by the COVID-19 pandemic, Greece provides an illustrative, and in many respects unique, example of how extensive policy interventions interact with a gradually recovering economy and persistently elevated unemployment levels. Overall, the results strongly indicate that there is little to no impact of the minimum wage on employment and the findings vary considerably across the different regional contexts. Finally, the DiD methodology used supports the credibility of the findings and suggests that the lack of impact of the minimum wage is not due to model specification or timing bias. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Labour Market Dynamics in European Countries)

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19 pages, 483 KB

Open AccessArticle

Transportation Infrastructure, ICT Trade, Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in Saudi Arabia: Evidence from ARDL and Threshold Regression Models

by Besma Hamdi, Awatef Louhichi, Olfa Gammoudi and Mouna Aloui

Economies 2026, 14(4), 136; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies14040136 - 13 Apr 2026

Viewed by 505

Abstract

A strong transportation infrastructure is critical in advancing ICT trade by facilitating the efficient movement of goods and services. This efficiency enhances supply chains and attracts greater foreign direct investment, ultimately supporting technological development and boosting the economy. This article evaluates the relationship [...] Read more.

A strong transportation infrastructure is critical in advancing ICT trade by facilitating the efficient movement of goods and services. This efficiency enhances supply chains and attracts greater foreign direct investment, ultimately supporting technological development and boosting the economy. This article evaluates the relationship between transportation infrastructure (TI), information and communication technology trade openness (ICT trade), foreign direct investment (FDI), and economic growth (GDP) in Saudi Arabia from 1990 to 2023. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, we found that ICT trade has a statistically significant positive effect on long-run GDP growth. However, in the short run, ICT trade has a positive but non-significant impact on GDP growth. Additionally, the results show that TI has a statistically significant negative effect on short-run GDP growth. Moreover, the non-linear Threshold Regression model results show a threshold value for information and communication technology trade openness (ICT trade) of approximately 0.4051. Specifically, the findings indicate that increased ICT trade reduces the negative impact on economic growth beyond a certain threshold. This study is highly significant for Saudi Arabian decision-makers, as it highlights the roles of transportation infrastructure and ICT trade in attracting FDI and bolstering the economy. Full article

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24 pages, 1407 KB

Open AccessArticle

Research on the Shadow Economy and Assessment of Its Scale: On the Example of Kazakhstan

by Aziza Mergenbayeva, Kulyanda Nurasheva, Aizhan Abishova and Gulnara Urazbayeva

Economies 2026, 14(4), 135; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies14040135 - 12 Apr 2026

Viewed by 837

Abstract

The manuscript aims to assess the scale of shadow economic processes within the non-observed economy, focusing on the self-employment sector, which is insufficiently reflected in national statistics. The research methodology includes an analysis of the conceptual foundations of the shadow economy, decomposition of [...] Read more.

The manuscript aims to assess the scale of shadow economic processes within the non-observed economy, focusing on the self-employment sector, which is insufficiently reflected in national statistics. The research methodology includes an analysis of the conceptual foundations of the shadow economy, decomposition of its components, identification of factors negatively affecting the economy, development of an algorithm for sociological research, and the selection of appropriate models for evaluating the non-observed economy. The study formulates the concept of the shadow economy and shows that shadow business activity in Kazakhstan contributes to income inequality, hidden unemployment, and the exclusion of certain goods and services from official GDP statistics. Using statistical data from 2005 to 2024 and applying methods such as system and statistical analysis, modeling approaches, and the MIMIC (Multiple Indicator Multiple Cause) and DGE (Dynamic General Equilibrium) models, the study estimates the size of the shadow sector. The results reveal insufficient statistical data on shadow activities within self-employment and SMEs. The study concludes that the most reliable assessment of the shadow economy requires an integrated methodological approach, including targeted sociological research and models that account for the influence of multiple factors on informal self-employment. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Development Economics: New Perspectives, Evidence and Challenges)

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30 pages, 939 KB

Open AccessArticle

AI-Driven Financial Solutions for Climate Resilience and Geopolitical Risk Mitigation in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

by Abdelrahman Mohamed Mohamed Saeed and Muhammad Ali

Economies 2026, 14(4), 134; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies14040134 - 10 Apr 2026

Viewed by 759

Abstract

Climate change disproportionately threatens low- and middle-income countries, yet integrated assessments combining socio-economic fragility with physical hazards remain limited. This study quantifies multi-dimensional climate vulnerability and derives optimized adaptation policies for six representative nations (Bangladesh, Colombia, Kenya, Morocco, Pakistan, Vietnam) by fusing socio-economic [...] Read more.

Climate change disproportionately threatens low- and middle-income countries, yet integrated assessments combining socio-economic fragility with physical hazards remain limited. This study quantifies multi-dimensional climate vulnerability and derives optimized adaptation policies for six representative nations (Bangladesh, Colombia, Kenya, Morocco, Pakistan, Vietnam) by fusing socio-economic indicators with climate risk data (2000–2024). A computational framework integrating unsupervised learning, dimensionality reduction, and predictive modeling was employed. Principal Component Analysis synthesized eight indicators into a Compound Vulnerability Score (CVS), while K-Means and DBSCAN identified distinct vulnerability regimes. XGBoost quantified driver importance, and Graph Neural Networks captured systemic interconnections. XGBoost identified projected drought risk (31.2%), precipitation change (18.1%), and poverty headcount (14.3%) as primary drivers. Graph networks demonstrated significant risk amplification in African nations (Morocco SRS: 0.728–0.874; Kenya SRS: 0.504–0.641) versus damping in Asian countries. A Reinforcement Learning (RL) agent was trained using Deep Q-Networks with experience replay to optimize intervention portfolios under budget constraints. The RL policy achieved a 23% reduction in systemic risk compared to uniform allocation baselines, generating context-specific priorities: drought management for Morocco (score 50) and Pakistan (40); poverty alleviation for Kenya (40); coastal protection for Bangladesh (40); agricultural resilience for Vietnam (35); and institutional capacity building for Colombia (50). In conclusion, socio-economic fragility non-linearly amplifies climate hazards, with poverty and drought risk constituting critical vulnerability multipliers. The AI-driven framework demonstrates that targeted interventions in high-sensitivity systems maximize systemic risk reduction. This integrated approach provides a replicable, evidence-based foundation for strategic adaptation finance allocation in an increasingly uncertain climate future. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Energy Consumption, Financial Development and Economic Growth)

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19 pages, 459 KB

Open AccessArticle

Domestic Structural Transformation in a Critical Mineral Economy: A Multisectoral Assessment of Indonesia’s Nickel Downstreaming Strategy

by Abimanyu Hendi Asyono, Palupi Lindiasari Samputra and Hary Djatmiko

Economies 2026, 14(4), 133; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies14040133 - 10 Apr 2026

Viewed by 690

Abstract

Critical minerals are central to industrial strategies in the Global South, but evidence on how such policies reshape domestic production is limited. This paper maps Indonesia’s nickel ecosystem before and after the 2014 export ban using input–output multipliers and labor intensity from the [...] Read more.

Critical minerals are central to industrial strategies in the Global South, but evidence on how such policies reshape domestic production is limited. This paper maps Indonesia’s nickel ecosystem before and after the 2014 export ban using input–output multipliers and labor intensity from the 2010, 2016, and 2020 input–output tables. We provide a descriptive account of nickel’s evolving economic trajectory during the downstreaming push. Three patterns stand out. Forward linkages declined from 16 to 8 and backward linkages moved from 75 to 73, suggesting a narrower structure with greater specialization in higher value, more capital-intensive activities. Output multipliers rose most in sectors that support the electric vehicle supply chain, including professional and technical services, machinery, fabricated metals, transport equipment, energy, and finance. In contrast, the labor multiplier fell from about 6514 to 3366 jobs per IDR 1 trillion of final demand, implying a higher value added alongside lower employment intensity. Overall, downstreaming appears to work through structural concentration and growth in complementary sectors rather than broad-based diversification. Complementary policies in skills, regional development, and energy infrastructure are therefore critical for inclusive industrial transformation. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Macroeconomics, Monetary Economics, and Financial Markets)

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19 pages, 763 KB

Open AccessArticle

The Missing Link Between Inflation and Macroeconomic Fundamentals: Evidence from Türkiye

by Burak Buyun and İlayda İsabetli Fidan

Economies 2026, 14(4), 132; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies14040132 - 10 Apr 2026

Viewed by 543

Abstract

This study investigates the structural relationship between inflation and key macroeconomic fundamentals in Türkiye, an emerging economy characterized by persistently high and divergent inflation dynamics. Using monthly data for the 2011–2024 period, we apply the Kapetanios, Shin, and Snell (KSS) nonlinear cointegration framework, [...] Read more.

This study investigates the structural relationship between inflation and key macroeconomic fundamentals in Türkiye, an emerging economy characterized by persistently high and divergent inflation dynamics. Using monthly data for the 2011–2024 period, we apply the Kapetanios, Shin, and Snell (KSS) nonlinear cointegration framework, which captures asymmetric adjustment dynamics that standard linear models fail to detect. The aggregate model reveals no long-run cointegration between inflation and monetary and fiscal fundamentals, indicating that conventional transmission channels have weakened and inflation has become decoupled from its traditional determinants. Pairwise analyses show that this decoupling is not complete; rather, the relationship persists in a fragmented, nonlinear, and variable-specific manner. Short-run Granger causality tests further reveal that only fiscal expansion and real money supply retain explanatory power over inflation, while the policy rate proves ineffective. Collectively, these findings indicate that inflation in Türkiye has increasingly evolved into an endogenous and self-reinforcing process, shaped more by policy incoherence than by any single macroeconomic driver. Restoring a coordinated, rule-based monetary and fiscal policy framework emerges as a necessary condition for re-establishing the link between inflation and macroeconomic fundamentals and ensuring durable price stability. Full article

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35 pages, 2872 KB

Open AccessArticle

Decomposing the Welfare Consequences of Population Aging in Thailand: Labor, Saving, and Fiscal Channels in a Multi-Household CGE Model

by Montchai Pinitjitsamut

Economies 2026, 14(4), 131; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies14040131 - 10 Apr 2026

Viewed by 755

Abstract

Population aging in middle-income economies produces macroeconomic and distributional consequences that aggregate frameworks cannot detect. This paper develops a multi-household CGE model calibrated to a 26-sector Social Accounting Matrix for Thailand (2024) and traces the labor, saving, and fiscal channels of aging across [...] Read more.

Population aging in middle-income economies produces macroeconomic and distributional consequences that aggregate frameworks cannot detect. This paper develops a multi-household CGE model calibrated to a 26-sector Social Accounting Matrix for Thailand (2024) and traces the labor, saving, and fiscal channels of aging across eleven counterfactual scenarios. Three findings emerge. First, aging’s primary macroeconomic cost operates through capital accumulation, not output contraction: investment falls seven times faster than the GDP under a savings-driven closure, because middle-aged households—the economy’s dominant net savers—compress lifecycle saving in response to aging. The saving channel alone amplifies the labor supply shock four-fold (range: 3.5–4.5). Second, aging can raise elderly welfare. When elderly households retain labor market attachment, wage gains from tighter factor markets outweigh declining capital returns—a welfare reversal invisible to representative agent and OLG frameworks by construction. The critical labor income threshold is

α_{L}^{*} = 35.5 %

(range: 34.8–36.2%), confirmed across all participation increments tested (elderly welfare gain: THB 341–521 million). Third, no single instrument satisfies efficiency and equity simultaneously. Pension transfers crowd out investment nonlinearly above 12 percent of tax revenue (range: 10–14%); health demand expansion is the decisive complement that converts redistribution into a near-Pareto improvement. Policy complementarity is an empirical necessity, not a theoretical refinement. Collectively, these results reframe demographic aging as a factor price redistribution mechanism whose welfare incidence is determined by the cohort-level income composition—with direct implications for aging policy in middle-income economies facing rapid demographic transitions under tighter fiscal constraints than for advanced economies encountered at equivalent demographic stages. Full article

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25 pages, 368 KB

Open AccessArticle

Climate Transition Risk, Bank Risk-Taking, and Financial Stability: Evidence from China’s Commercial Banks

by Yong Chen, Qian Hu and Haiming Song

Economies 2026, 14(4), 130; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies14040130 - 10 Apr 2026

Viewed by 692

Abstract

Against the backdrop of an accelerated green transition and increasingly stringent climate policies, climate transition risk has emerged as a significant exogenous shock to the financial system. Using a panel of 57 listed commercial banks in China over the period 2010–2024, this study [...] Read more.

Against the backdrop of an accelerated green transition and increasingly stringent climate policies, climate transition risk has emerged as a significant exogenous shock to the financial system. Using a panel of 57 listed commercial banks in China over the period 2010–2024, this study investigates whether and how climate transition risk shapes bank risk-taking behavior and identifies the mechanisms involved. Empirical evidence shows that rising climate transition risk significantly lowers bank risk-taking, a conclusion that holds consistently under various endogeneity and robustness checks. Second, the evidence suggests that climate transition risk may indirectly reduce bank risk-taking by impairing growth capacity and increasing operational costs per unit. Third, moderating effect analysis reveals that higher levels of digital transformation and the implementation of the Paris Agreement help alleviate the adverse effects of climate transition risk, whereas increased economic policy uncertainty amplifies this effect. Fourth, heterogeneity analysis shows that large banks exhibit greater resilience, while banks with higher carbon-intensive exposure are more sensitive to climate transition risk. Overall, these findings provide empirical evidence and policy implications for enhancing climate-related financial regulation and facilitating the green transformation of the financial system. Full article

28 pages, 398 KB

Open AccessArticle

Labor Reallocation as a Mediating Channel: Farmland Transfer and Household Financial Vulnerability in Rural China

by Zhongrui Lu, Jie Hu and Jianchao Luo

Economies 2026, 14(4), 129; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies14040129 - 9 Apr 2026

Viewed by 510

Abstract

The reallocation of production factors, particularly labor, is central to understanding economic development and household welfare. This paper investigates how the transfer of farmland, a fundamental shift in factor endowment, affects rural household financial vulnerability, with a specific focus on the mediating role [...] Read more.

The reallocation of production factors, particularly labor, is central to understanding economic development and household welfare. This paper investigates how the transfer of farmland, a fundamental shift in factor endowment, affects rural household financial vulnerability, with a specific focus on the mediating role of labor mobility. While factor market liberalization is theorized to enhance efficiency, the micro-level pathways through which land transactions influence financial resilience remain underexplored. Utilizing a unique household survey dataset from Shaanxi Province, China, and employing ordered Probit model alongside propensity score matching (PSM), the impact of farmland transfer-out on the financial vulnerability of rural households is revealed. The results show that farmland transfer-out significantly reduces household financial vulnerability. Mechanism analysis confirms that this effect operates primarily by releasing surplus agricultural labor and promoting its shift into non-farm employment, thereby expanding both the sectoral and geographic scope of household labor supply. Heterogeneity analysis further reveals that the responsiveness of labor mobility to land transfer is more pronounced among households with older heads, higher human capital, and stronger social networks. However, the ultimate mitigating effect on financial vulnerability is consistent across diverse household types. These findings contribute to the literature on factor market integration and household finance in developing economies and offer direct policy implications for designing land institutions and labor policies that synergistically enhance rural economic resilience. Full article

20 pages, 4468 KB

Open AccessArticle

Regional Integration, University Resources, and Firm Performance: Evidence from the Yangtze River Delta in China

by Jiawen Zhou, Fei Peng, Qi Chen and Sajid Anwar

Economies 2026, 14(4), 128; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies14040128 - 9 Apr 2026

Viewed by 474

Abstract

Universities play a critical role in knowledge creation and technological innovation, serving as key drivers of regional development. However, existing research has paid limited attention to the mechanisms through which university innovation inputs translate into firm-level performance, particularly in the context of science [...] Read more.

Universities play a critical role in knowledge creation and technological innovation, serving as key drivers of regional development. However, existing research has paid limited attention to the mechanisms through which university innovation inputs translate into firm-level performance, particularly in the context of science and technology corridors in emerging economies. This study investigates how university innovation resources affect enterprise performance in the G60 Science and Technology Corridor within China’s Yangtze River Delta, one of the country’s most dynamic innovation regions. Using a panel dataset of 55 universities across nine cities from 2008 to 2017, we employ spatial analysis and fixed-effects panel regression models to examine the relationship between university innovation inputs and firm performance and further explore the mediating roles of local human capital and firm R&D investment. The results show that university innovation inputs significantly enhance enterprise performance, although excessive human resource inputs exhibit a negative effect on both short-term and long-term outcomes. Local human capital and firm R&D investment serve as key mediating mechanisms, with input and output resources influencing enterprise performance through distinct pathways. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that non-state-owned enterprises and small- and medium-sized enterprises derive greater long-term benefits from university resources. These findings contribute to the literature by clarifying the conceptual distinction between university innovation inputs and outputs, and by demonstrating the micro-level mechanisms—R&D investment and human capital—through which university-generated knowledge affects firm performance. The results also provide empirical evidence from an emerging economic context, extending the applicability of knowledge spillover and absorptive capacity theories. Policy implications include optimizing university human resource allocation, strengthening university–enterprise collaboration, and providing targeted support for non-state-owned enterprises and SMEs. Future research may extend the analysis to include institutional factors and university heterogeneity. Full article

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28 pages, 1225 KB

Open AccessArticle

Digitalization and Institutional Quality in the EU Shadow Economy: Complementarity, Substitution, and Nonlinearity

by Lavinia Mastac, Raluca Andreea Trandafir and Liliana Nicodim

Economies 2026, 14(4), 127; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies14040127 - 9 Apr 2026

Viewed by 438

Abstract

This study examines how digitalization and institutional quality jointly influence the size and dynamics of the shadow economy across EU member states. It adopts an integrated framework in which digital capacity is treated as an operational extension of state capacity that can either [...] Read more.

This study examines how digitalization and institutional quality jointly influence the size and dynamics of the shadow economy across EU member states. It adopts an integrated framework in which digital capacity is treated as an operational extension of state capacity that can either complement strong institutions or compensate for institutional weaknesses. The empirical analysis is based on a two-dataset panel covering 27 EU countries over the periods 2013–2022 and 2017–2022. Institutional quality is measured using the Worldwide Governance Indicators, while digitalization is captured through detailed indicators from the Digital Economy and Society Index. Fixed-Effects models with Driscoll–Kraay standard errors are employed, alongside interaction and nonlinear specifications. Results show that institutional quality is consistently associated with lower levels of the shadow economy, but its effect exhibits diminishing returns at higher levels of governance, indicating institutional saturation. Digitalization effects are domain-specific. In isolation, both citizen- and business-oriented digital services show a positive association with the shadow economy, a finding termed the Digitalization Paradox, reflecting a phase where technological facilitation of informal activity outpaces regulatory adaptation. However, their interaction with institutional quality reveals divergent mechanisms. Citizen-oriented services tend to substitute for weaker governance, while business-oriented services complement strong institutional frameworks. The findings indicate that digitalization serves as an institutional amplifier whose final impact on the shadow economy, whether formalizing or facilitating, is dictated by the maturity of the host institution. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Corruption, Institutions and the Macroeconomy)

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25 pages, 1410 KB

Open AccessArticle

Digital Transformation and Technological Innovation in Emerging Economies: Substitution Effects and Regional Heterogeneity in China’s Foreign Trade

by Qian Jiang, Yi Tu and Jun Tu

Economies 2026, 14(4), 126; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies14040126 - 9 Apr 2026

Viewed by 441

Abstract

The rapid expansion of the digital economy is reshaping the global production and trade system, bringing new opportunities for developing economies seeking to enhance their international competitiveness, while also posing structural challenges. This study focuses on China, a typical emerging economy, and uses [...] Read more.

The rapid expansion of the digital economy is reshaping the global production and trade system, bringing new opportunities for developing economies seeking to enhance their international competitiveness, while also posing structural challenges. This study focuses on China, a typical emerging economy, and uses provincial panel data from 2015 to 2024 to empirically examine how digital transformation and technological innovation jointly affect foreign trade competitiveness. The core variables are measured as follows: The digitalization level is constructed using principal component analysis (PCA) based on three dimensions: digital infrastructure, digital industrialization, and industrial digitization; technological innovation is proxied by the logarithm of technology market transaction volume. This study employs a fixed-effects model with interaction terms to estimate the independent effects of digitalization and technological innovation and to explore their interaction within the framework of the digital economy. The empirical results show that both digital transformation and technological innovation have a significant positive impact on foreign trade competitiveness. Specifically, a 10-point increase in the digitalization index is associated with an approximately 0.10-unit increase in the trade competitiveness index, and a 1% increase in technological innovation input is associated with an increase of 0.032–0.042 units. However, their interaction coefficient is significantly negative (−0.001, p < 0.01), indicating a substitution effect: an increase in technological innovation investment weakens the marginal contribution of digitalization to export competitiveness, and vice versa. Further heterogeneity analysis shows that the direct effects of digital transformation and technological innovation are more significant in less developed regions, while the substitution effect is stronger in economically developed regions. The findings suggest that policies promoting digital transformation and technological innovation should avoid a uniform approach and instead adopt coordinated and phased strategies that are suitable for regional development conditions. By providing new empirical evidence on the interaction between digital economy development and innovation investment, this study enriches the existing literature and offers policy implications for emerging economies seeking to achieve sustainable foreign trade development under increasing global trade uncertainty. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Emerging Trends in the Digital Economy: Opportunities, Challenges, and Implications for Developing Countries)

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16 pages, 627 KB

Open AccessArticle

Asymmetric Effects of Oil Price Shocks on Stock Markets: A NARDL Analysis for Türkiye and Kazakhstan

by Özkan İmamoğlu

Economies 2026, 14(4), 125; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies14040125 - 8 Apr 2026

Viewed by 722

Abstract

This study examines the asymmetric responses of stock market indices in Türkiye and Kazakhstan to oil price shocks during the 2010–2025 period. Using the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model, the study decomposes the nonlinear effects of oil price fluctuations on financial markets. [...] Read more.

This study examines the asymmetric responses of stock market indices in Türkiye and Kazakhstan to oil price shocks during the 2010–2025 period. Using the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model, the study decomposes the nonlinear effects of oil price fluctuations on financial markets. Empirical findings reveal that in Türkiye, a net oil importer, the stock market exhibits a dual-sensitivity: while exchange rate dynamics (2.34) remain the dominant driver, oil price increases (−0.12) exert a direct and statistically significant negative pressure. In contrast, Kazakhstan, a net oil exporter, shows a high vulnerability to oil price decreases (−1.05) at the 1% significance level, confirming a strong asymmetric structure (p = 0.0122). Furthermore, the error correction speed is significantly higher in Türkiye (28%) than in Kazakhstan (4%), indicating divergent market efficiency and recovery mechanisms. These results demonstrate that financial market reactions to external shocks differ fundamentally based on energy trade structures. The findings suggest that oil-importing countries must prioritize exchange rate stability, while oil-exporting nations must develop specific policy buffers against the persistent downside risks of global energy cycles. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Economic Impact of Natural Resources)

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25 pages, 525 KB

Open AccessArticle

Digital Transformation and Quality-Oriented Tourism Supply as Determinants of Destination Competitiveness in Developing Economies

by Antun Marinac and Barbara Pisker

Economies 2026, 14(4), 124; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies14040124 - 7 Apr 2026

Viewed by 743

Abstract

Digital transformation is increasingly reshaping how tourism destinations enhance service quality and strengthen competitive positioning, particularly in developing economies characterized by heterogeneous digital maturity and structural constraints. This study develops and empirically tests a conceptual model examining the relationship between destination digital transformation, [...] Read more.

Digital transformation is increasingly reshaping how tourism destinations enhance service quality and strengthen competitive positioning, particularly in developing economies characterized by heterogeneous digital maturity and structural constraints. This study develops and empirically tests a conceptual model examining the relationship between destination digital transformation, tourism supply quality, and destination competitiveness, with a specific focus on the mediating role of quality-oriented tourism supply. Survey data were collected from 242 tourism stakeholders and analyzed using hierarchical regression and bootstrapped mediation analysis (PROCESS Model 4, 5000 samples). The results show that digital transformation has a significant positive total effect on destination competitiveness (β = 0.48, p < 0.001), explaining 56% of the variance in competitiveness (R² = 0.56). However, a substantial portion of this effect is transmitted indirectly through tourism supply quality. The mediation analysis confirms a statistically significant partial mediation effect, with approximately 41% of the total effect operating through quality-oriented mechanisms. The findings demonstrate that digital transformation enhances competitiveness primarily when embedded within structured quality management, online reputation management, and smart governance practices, rather than through technological adoption alone. The study contributes to the literature by integrating digital transformation and tourism supply quality into a unified competitiveness framework tailored to developing economy contexts and provides practical guidance for policymakers and destination managers seeking inclusive and sustainable growth through quality-oriented digital strategies. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Emerging Trends in the Digital Economy: Opportunities, Challenges, and Implications for Developing Countries)

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21 pages, 1968 KB

Open AccessArticle

Why Non-Performing Assets Persist: Uncovering the Structural and Macroeconomic Drivers of India’s Banking Stress

by Faiz ur Rehman, Mohammad Ammar Ahsan, Bilal Asghar, Ali Saleh Alshebami, Elham Alzain and Abdullah Hamoud Ali Seraj

Economies 2026, 14(4), 123; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies14040123 - 7 Apr 2026

Viewed by 640

Abstract

Rising non-performing assets (NPAs) remain a persistent threat to banking stability in emerging economies, including India. This study examines the role of conventional macroeconomic determinants in shaping NPA dynamics using annual panel data from 30 Indian banks over the period 2003–2022. Employing Robust [...] Read more.

Rising non-performing assets (NPAs) remain a persistent threat to banking stability in emerging economies, including India. This study examines the role of conventional macroeconomic determinants in shaping NPA dynamics using annual panel data from 30 Indian banks over the period 2003–2022. Employing Robust Least Squares and dynamic modelling techniques, the analysis evaluates the impact of GDP growth, inflation, exchange rate movements, and repo rates, while addressing heteroscedasticity, autocorrelation, and bank-level heterogeneity. The findings indicate that currency depreciation significantly increases NPAs, whereas inflation and tighter monetary policy exert a moderating effect. GDP, however, does not exhibit a significant influence, suggesting limited macroeconomic transmission to banking asset quality. To ensure appropriate model specification, stationarity tests are conducted, guiding the inclusion of dynamic elements in the analysis. Once the model is adjusted accordingly, the results consistently highlight the relative importance of macroeconomic factors without yielding conflicting interpretations. While broader theoretical perspectives such as institutional memory and balance-sheet effects are acknowledged for contextual relevance, they are not empirically tested in this study. Overall, the findings emphasize that conventional macroeconomic variables play a meaningful, though selective, role in explaining NPA behaviour, offering clearer and more consistent insights for policy and banking practice. Full article

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16 pages, 293 KB

Open AccessArticle

Examining the Connection Between Financial Inclusion and Income Inequality in Indonesia

by Paidi Paidi

Economies 2026, 14(4), 122; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies14040122 - 7 Apr 2026

Viewed by 594

Abstract

This study examines the impact of financial inclusion on income inequality across 33 provinces in Indonesia from 2015 to 2023, while controlling for human development and investment-related factors. Specifically, it investigates the effects of the Financial Inclusion Index (FII), Human Development Index (HDI), [...] Read more.

This study examines the impact of financial inclusion on income inequality across 33 provinces in Indonesia from 2015 to 2023, while controlling for human development and investment-related factors. Specifically, it investigates the effects of the Financial Inclusion Index (FII), Human Development Index (HDI), foreign investment (FI), and domestic investment (DI) on provincial income inequality. This study used balanced-panel data for each province and year. Employing a dynamic panel data approach, this study utilizes the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator to address potential endogeneity, unobserved heterogeneity, and dynamic persistence in income inequality. The empirical findings indicate that financial inclusion, as measured by the Financial Inclusion Index, has a statistically significant negative effect on income inequality, suggesting that greater access to formal financial services contributes to a more equitable income distribution. Similarly, the Human Development Index is found to reduce income inequality, highlighting the importance of human capital development in mitigating income disparities. In contrast, foreign investment and domestic investment exhibit positive and significant effects on income inequality, implying that investment inflows may disproportionately benefit higher-income groups. Overall, the results underscore a high degree of inequality in Indonesia, consistent with the lagged coefficient reaching 0.97. Therefore, inclusive policy frameworks are required to ensure that investment-driven growth is more evenly distributed across provinces. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Economic Development)

20 pages, 873 KB

Open AccessArticle

Non-Trade in the MENA Revisited: A Gravity Model Analysis

by Libby Lahar, Binyam Afewerk Demena and Peter A. G. van Bergeijk

Economies 2026, 14(4), 121; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies14040121 - 7 Apr 2026

Viewed by 508

Abstract

This paper provides a historical perspective on comparatively low levels of trade in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, focusing on studies addressing the impact of the Israeli–Palestinian conflict. Our literature review identifies best practices and reviews trade potential estimates and [...] Read more.

This paper provides a historical perspective on comparatively low levels of trade in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, focusing on studies addressing the impact of the Israeli–Palestinian conflict. Our literature review identifies best practices and reviews trade potential estimates and finds that the last year for which a relevant trade potential estimate for the region accounting for the influence of the Israeli–Palestinian conflict is available is 1999. First, we replicate the seminal study that provided the earliest estimation of trade potential. Next, we extend and update this study, using a best practice panel PPML gravity model with ex(/im)porter-year fixed effects for 76 countries (1991–2019 inclusive). Finally, we use two alternative approaches to estimate the intra-MENA trade potential that could have been reaped as a consequence of a geopolitically more stable and open Middle East (ME). In the year 2019, this ‘pot of gold’ (POG) in per cent of intra-MENA trade amounted to 10% to 54% (import-based) and 21% to 48% (export-based), substantially lower than earlier literature reports. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section International, Regional, and Transportation Economics)

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22 pages, 1372 KB

Open AccessArticle

Effects of Monetary Policy on Investment Dynamics in Latin American Economies Through a Model with Heterogeneous Firms

by Rodney Menezes

Economies 2026, 14(4), 120; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies14040120 - 7 Apr 2026

Viewed by 396

Abstract

This study examines how firms’ financial heterogeneity shapes the transmission of monetary policy to investment in Latin American economies. It develops an extended theoretical model with heterogeneous firms, calibrated for Latin American economies, and validates it empirically through local projection models. These projections [...] Read more.

This study examines how firms’ financial heterogeneity shapes the transmission of monetary policy to investment in Latin American economies. It develops an extended theoretical model with heterogeneous firms, calibrated for Latin American economies, and validates it empirically through local projection models. These projections are applied to both a dataset of 72 of the most representative firms from the six analyzed Latin American economies and simulated data from the theoretical model, enabling direct comparison of the results. The research yields three main findings. First, it shows that financial heterogeneity is crucial and determines how firms respond to a monetary shock. Firms with fragile structures or high levels of indebtedness tend to restrict investment following monetary expansions, whereas firms with stronger financial positions or greater distance to default tend to increase it. The aggregate effect depends on the distribution of financial structures in the economy and which group dominates. Second, a transmission mechanism is identified via a financial channel based on a price–quantity sequence. The drop in the real rate compresses spreads and raises the price of capital; if financial constraints are active, the monetary relief is used to repair balance sheets rather than to invest; otherwise, the stimulus quickly translates into investment. Finally, the study shows that ignoring heterogeneity—as in representative–agent models—leads to a significant overestimation of both the magnitude and persistence of investment responses to monetary policy shocks. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Macroeconomics and Financial Markets: From an International Perspective)

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20 pages, 1183 KB

Open AccessArticle

Empowering Urban Women Street Vendors Through the Impact of Digital Payments: An Empirical Investigation in the Megacity of Delhi

by Gayatri Mallick, Sonia Singla, Suraj Kumar Mallick, Netrananda Sahu, Martand Mani Mishra and Ayush Varun

Economies 2026, 14(4), 119; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies14040119 - 6 Apr 2026

Viewed by 792

Abstract

This article investigates whether increasing economic status through adopting digital payment capabilities in Delhi fosters economic and financial inclusion among urban women street vendors in Mahila Haat. Digital freedom is a new step forward in technology for everyone. Still, a woman not only [...] Read more.

This article investigates whether increasing economic status through adopting digital payment capabilities in Delhi fosters economic and financial inclusion among urban women street vendors in Mahila Haat. Digital freedom is a new step forward in technology for everyone. Still, a woman not only balances the social responsibilities of childbearing, caring for her children and family, and struggling with economic issues, health issues, and undernourishment, but can also balance the household job of street vending to increase self-esteem and financial independence. This research work conducted a sampling survey and applied the Kruskal–Wallis H-test with a p-value (0.05) significance level by evaluating 11 variables to investigate the relationship between the digital capabilities and economic independence of street vendors in Mahila Haat (a women’s market where the vendors are all women) in the Red Fort area of New Delhi. UPI systems were created using measurements based on a five-point Likert scale to analyze different levels of satisfaction in clusters of digital capabilities on digital platforms. Further, the ordinary least squares (OLS) method was used to estimate quality of life and social happiness in the context of digital empowerment. Digital payment systems positively influence women’s empowerment. Women vendors can adopt digital payment methods, making them economically independent. The positive relationship between women vendors and customer satisfaction before UPI use and after UPI use is also analyzed. This research will be helpful for both government and non-government organizations to provide financial assistance, informational awareness, skill development training, and advocacy for gender equality to increase women’s empowerment. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Economic Development, Labour Markets, and Education in the Digital Age)

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22 pages, 1544 KB

Open AccessArticle

Mapping Foreign Direct Investment Research in Africa

by Widad Miliani, María del Pilar Casado-Belmonte and Antonio Jesus Garcia-Amate

Economies 2026, 14(4), 118; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies14040118 - 5 Apr 2026

Viewed by 1387

Abstract

Foreign direct investment (FDI) plays a vital role in Africa’s economic development; however, the rapidly expanding body of literature on this topic remains highly fragmented. This dispersion creates a significant research problem, obscuring structural evolution, persistent thematic gaps, and collaborative networks within the [...] Read more.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) plays a vital role in Africa’s economic development; however, the rapidly expanding body of literature on this topic remains highly fragmented. This dispersion creates a significant research problem, obscuring structural evolution, persistent thematic gaps, and collaborative networks within the field. To address this, a bibliometric analysis is necessary, as it provides an objective, macro-level methodology capable of synthesising vast amounts of publication data and uncovering hidden intellectual structures that traditional systematic reviews cannot easily capture. Consequently, this study maps the development of FDI research in Africa by analysing and visualising scientific publications to reveal the structure, evolution, and interdisciplinary nature of the field, identifying leading scholars, collaboration networks, and core thematic areas. Using data from the Scopus database, the study examines 2003 documents through Biblioshiny and VOSviewer. The findings are presented in three sections. The descriptive analysis shows a steady rise in FDI publications from 1986 to 2024, with strong growth in the past two decades. The most productive institutions are in South Africa and Nigeria, while major contributing countries include South Africa, the United States, China, and the United Kingdom. Keyword and collaboration analyses highlight themes such as Sub-Saharan Africa, economic growth, capital flow, renewable energy, and natural resources. Ultimately, this mapping goes beyond descriptive trends to provide critical analytical insights, revealing a significant thematic shift from traditional economic paradigms toward sustainable development and environmental economics. Practically, these findings offer strategic guidance for policymakers and investors by identifying key institutional hubs and regional knowledge gaps. Scientifically, the study establishes a foundation for future research by directing attention toward underexplored, emerging issues such as climate resilience, digital transformation, and subnational FDI dynamics. Full article

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23 pages, 737 KB

Open AccessArticle

Symmetric and Asymmetric J-Curve Effects of the Real Exchange Rate on the Manufacturing Trade Balance Between Türkiye and Germany

by Derya Hekim

Economies 2026, 14(4), 117; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies14040117 - 4 Apr 2026

Viewed by 549

Abstract

This study investigates whether fluctuations in the real exchange rate give rise to symmetric or asymmetric J-curve effects in manufacturing trade between Türkiye and Germany, thereby positioning the analysis within and contributing to the broader scholarly discourse on exchange rate–trade balance dynamics. Using [...] Read more.

This study investigates whether fluctuations in the real exchange rate give rise to symmetric or asymmetric J-curve effects in manufacturing trade between Türkiye and Germany, thereby positioning the analysis within and contributing to the broader scholarly discourse on exchange rate–trade balance dynamics. Using monthly data for the period 2013M01–2025M07, the paper first estimates a linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model for the bilateral manufacturing trade balance and subsequently extends the framework to a nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) specification, which explicitly incorporates symmetry and asymmetry by decomposing real exchange rate changes into positive (depreciation) and negative (appreciation) partial sums. The linear ARDL results provide no evidence of a conventional J-curve and suggest that the aggregate impact of the real exchange rate is weak and often statistically insignificant. In contrast, the NARDL estimates uncover pronounced long-run and cumulative short-run asymmetries: real depreciations of the Turkish lira are associated with a persistent improvement in the bilateral manufacturing trade balance, whereas appreciations exert weak and statistically insignificant effects, a finding that remains robust when a real effective exchange rate measure is employed. Overall, the evidence indicates that Türkiye–Germany manufacturing trade does not conform to the standard J-curve pattern. These findings suggest that trade policy should adopt an asymmetric stance toward exchange rate movements: since depreciations yield persistent trade balance improvements while appreciations produce negligible effects, policies designed to support export competitiveness should prioritize the management of depreciation episodes rather than assuming symmetric adjustment dynamics. Full article

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