Climate

18 pages, 2227 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Costs of Overcoming Social and Institutional Barriers to Implementing Co-Benefit Solutions in Thailand’s Transport and Residential Energy Sectors: Methods and Applications

by Kaoru Akahoshi, Eric Zusman, Tatsuya Hanaoka, Supat Wangwongwatana, Nutthajit Onmek, Ittipol Paw-Armart, Tomoki Hirayama, Yurie Goto, Kazumasa Kawashima and Markus Amann

Climate 2025, 13(3), 64; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13030064 - 20 Mar 2025

Viewed by 491

Abstract

Interest in co-benefits—the multiple benefits from mitigating climate change while addressing other sustainability challenges—has grown as policymakers seek to lower the costs of decarbonization. Much of this interest stems from data-driven models that quantify how much improved air quality, better health, and other [...] Read more.

Interest in co-benefits—the multiple benefits from mitigating climate change while addressing other sustainability challenges—has grown as policymakers seek to lower the costs of decarbonization. Much of this interest stems from data-driven models that quantify how much improved air quality, better health, and other co-benefits can offset those costs. However, co-benefits research often features transport, residential energy, and other solutions that face greater social and institutional barriers than economic barriers to achieving estimated gains. Few studies have assessed the costs of overcoming these barriers. The main objective of this study was to develop and apply methods for estimating these costs. Toward that end, this study developed a mixed method approach that used original survey and budgetary data to estimate the costs of clearing social and institutional barriers to implementing transport and residential energy solutions in Thailand. The results revealed that the costs of overcoming key social and institutional barriers were approximately USD 170–270 million per year from 2022 to 2032 for the transport sector in Thailand. The costs of overcoming social and institutional barriers for residential energy solutions are approximately USD 0.07–0.1 million per year over a comparable period. The results suggested that the costs of overcoming barriers were likely lower than the benefits for all solutions and greater for transportation (driven by the implementation of inspection and maintenance programs) than residential energy in Thailand. More generally, the results underlined a need for greater integration between work on co-benefits and transaction costs to assist policymakers in understanding how much investing in institutional capacity building, coordination, awareness raising, and other enabling reforms can help align a healthier climate with other development priorities. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Policy, Governance, and Social Equity)

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26 pages, 5642 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Climate Change as a Double-Edged Sword: Exploring the Potential of Environmental Recovery to Foster Stability in Darfur, Sudan

by Abdalrahman Ahmed, Brian Rotich and Kornel Czimber

Climate 2025, 13(3), 63; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13030063 - 18 Mar 2025

Viewed by 1650

Abstract

The Darfur conflict, which emerged in the early 21st century, represents a multifaceted crisis driven by socio-political and environmental factors, with resource scarcity, exacerbated by climate change, playing a pivotal role in intensifying tensions between agricultural and pastoral communities. While climate change is [...] Read more.

The Darfur conflict, which emerged in the early 21st century, represents a multifaceted crisis driven by socio-political and environmental factors, with resource scarcity, exacerbated by climate change, playing a pivotal role in intensifying tensions between agricultural and pastoral communities. While climate change is typically associated with adverse environmental outcomes, an analysis of data spanning four decades (1980–2023) reveals a contrasting trend of increased precipitation, enhanced vegetation, and decreased drought frequency in recent years. This research explores the potential of these positive environmental changes to mitigate resource-based conflicts and foster political stability in Darfur as improved environmental conditions are posited to create a foundation for conflict resolution and sustainable peacebuilding. The present study integrates trends in the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to examine these shifts. EVI data, derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) at a 250 m resolution, was used to assess large-scale vegetation patterns in arid and semi-arid landscapes. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was employed to forecast future precipitation scenarios up to the year 2034, enhancing the understanding of long-term climatic trends. Data processing and analysis utilized advanced tools, including Google Earth Engine (GEE), ArcGIS Pro (version 3.4), and R software (version 4.3.2). The findings reveal a significant (33.19%) improvement in natural vegetation cover between 2000 and 2023, with degraded and unchanged areas accounting for 1.95% and 64.86%, respectively. This finding aligns with a marked increase in annual precipitation and a reduction in drought intensity over the study period. Historical SPEI analysis showed persistent drought events between 1980 and 2012, followed by a notable decline in drought frequency and severity from 2013 to 2024. Precipitation projections suggest a stable trend, potentially supporting further vegetation recovery in the region. These environmental improvements are preliminarily linked to climate-change-induced increases in precipitation and reductions in drought severity. This study’s findings contribute to a nuanced understanding of the interplay between environmental dynamics and socio-political stability in Darfur, offering actionable insights for policy interventions aimed at fostering sustainable peace and resilience in the region. Full article

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24 pages, 1922 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Multiple GCM-Based Climate Change Projections Across Northwest Region of Bangladesh Using Statistical Downscaling Model

by Md Masud Rana, Sajal Kumar Adhikary, Takayuki Suzuki and Martin Mäll

Climate 2025, 13(3), 62; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13030062 - 17 Mar 2025

Viewed by 781

Abstract

Bangladesh, one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change, has been experiencing significant climate change-induced risks. Particularly, the northwest region of the country has been severely affected by climate extremes, including droughts and heat waves. Therefore, proper understanding and assessment of future [...] Read more.

Bangladesh, one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change, has been experiencing significant climate change-induced risks. Particularly, the northwest region of the country has been severely affected by climate extremes, including droughts and heat waves. Therefore, proper understanding and assessment of future climate change scenarios is crucial for the adaptive management of water resources. The current study used the statistical downscaling model (SDSM) to downscale and analyze climate change-induced future changes in temperature and precipitation based on multiple global climate models (GCMs), including HadCM3, CanESM2, and CanESM5. A quantitative approach was adopted for both calibration and validation, showing that the SDSM is well-suited for downscaling mean temperature and precipitation. Furthermore, bias correction was applied to enhance the accuracy of the downscaled climate variables. The downscaled projections revealed an upward trend in mean annual temperatures, while precipitation exhibited a declining trend up to the end of the century for all scenarios. The observed data periods for the CanESM5, CanESM2, and HadCM3 GCMs used in SDSM were 1985–2014, 1975–2005, and 1975–2001, respectively. Based on the aforementioned periods, the projections for the next century indicate that under the CanESM5 (SSP5-8.5 scenario), temperature is projected to increase by 0.98 °C, with a 12.4% decrease in precipitation. For CanESM2 (RCP8.5 scenario), temperature is expected to rise by 0.94 °C, and precipitation is projected to decrease by 10.3%. Similarly, under HadCM3 (A2 scenario), temperature is projected to increase by 0.67 °C, with a 7.0% decrease in precipitation. These downscaled pathways provide a strong basis for assessing the potential impacts of future climate change across the northwestern region of Bangladesh. Full article

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22 pages, 2012 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Medium-Term Psychosocial Impact of the 2021 Floods in Belgium: A Survey-Based Study

by Nele De Maeyer, Nidhi Nagabhatla, Olivia Marie Toles, Dilek Güneş Reubens and Charlotte Scheerens

Climate 2025, 13(3), 61; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13030061 - 17 Mar 2025

Viewed by 714

Abstract

Background: This study investigates the medium-term psychosocial impacts of the 2021 floods in Belgium, which caused fatalities and considerable infrastructural damage. Given similar events’ significant impacts on psychosocial well-being, this study seeks to answer three questions: whether there are medium-term (two years and [...] Read more.

Background: This study investigates the medium-term psychosocial impacts of the 2021 floods in Belgium, which caused fatalities and considerable infrastructural damage. Given similar events’ significant impacts on psychosocial well-being, this study seeks to answer three questions: whether there are medium-term (two years and further) effects on residents’ psychosocial well-being, whether demographic variables influence these effects, and how flood exposure impacts psychosocial well-being. Methods: We collected data in affected municipalities through an online survey, assessing demographic variables (e.g., age, gender, education, SES), flood exposure (e.g., being physically hurt, being faced with financial difficulties), and psychosocial well-being, employing two validated instruments for quantitative evaluation: the RAND-36 and the Traumatic Exposure Severity Scale (TESS). Results: The sample included 114 participants, with 54% reporting a deterioration in their psychosocial well-being after the floods. Additionally, over 50% mentioned the psychosocial impact of the floods. SES was the only significant demographic variable impacting psychosocial well-being, with lower SES linked to higher deterioration. Financial difficulties generated by the floods were the only considerable exposure factor. Furthermore, 22% discussed being unhappy with the organized response measures. Due to the sample size, confounding effects could not be checked. Conclusions: This study found a medium-term effect of the 2021 floods on psychosocial well-being, highlighting the need for policy adaptations focused on post-disaster psychosocial support. With lower SES and financial difficulties as risk factors, one needs to design policies tailored to these vulnerable groups. With climate change expected to increase flood events, context-specific policies are essential to boost resilience. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change Responses and Mitigation at Technical, Economic, and Social Interfaces)

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17 pages, 1253 KiB

Open AccessReview

Adaptation to Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) in the Hindukush-Himalaya: A Review

by Sobia Shah and Asif Ishtiaque

Climate 2025, 13(3), 60; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13030060 - 17 Mar 2025

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1600

Abstract

This study examines adaptation strategies to mitigate the risks posed by Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) in the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region, encompassing Pakistan, India, Nepal, Bhutan, and Afghanistan. GLOFs occur when water is suddenly released from glacial lakes and they present [...] Read more.

This study examines adaptation strategies to mitigate the risks posed by Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) in the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region, encompassing Pakistan, India, Nepal, Bhutan, and Afghanistan. GLOFs occur when water is suddenly released from glacial lakes and they present significant threats to communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems in high-altitude regions, particularly as climate change intensifies their frequencies and severity. While there are many studies on the changes in glacial lakes, studies on adaptation to GLOF risks are scant. Also, these studies tend to focus on case-specific scenarios, leaving a gap in comprehensive, region-wide analyses. This review article aims to fill that gap by synthesizing the adaptation strategies adopted across the HKH region. We conducted a literature review following several inclusion and exclusion criteria and reviewed 23 scholarly sources on GLOF adaptation. We qualitatively synthesized the data and categorized the adaptation strategies into two main types: structural and non-structural. Structural measures include engineering solutions such as lake-level control, channel modifications, and flood defense infrastructure, designed to reduce the physical damage caused by GLOFs. Non-structural measures include community-based practices, economic diversification, awareness programs, and improvements in institutional governance, addressing social and economic vulnerabilities. We found that Afghanistan remains underrepresented in GLOF-related studies, with only one article that specifically focuses on GLOFs, while Nepal and Pakistan receive greater attention in research. The findings underscore the need for a holistic, context-specific approach that integrates both structural and non-structural measures to enhance resilience across the HKH region. Policy-makers should prioritize the development of sustainable mechanisms to support long-term adaptation efforts, foster cross-border collaborations for data sharing and coordinated risk management, and ensure that adaptation strategies are inclusive of vulnerable communities. Practitioners should focus on strengthening early warning systems, expanding community-based adaptation initiatives, and integrating traditional knowledge with modern scientific approaches to enhance local resilience. By adopting a collaborative and regionally coordinated approach, stakeholders can improve GLOF risk preparedness, mitigate socioeconomic impacts, and build long-term resilience in South Asia’s high-altitude regions. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydro-Meteorological Hazards: Causes, Impacts, and Mitigation Strategies)

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13 pages, 2426 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change Scenarios on Soil-Adjusted Vegetation Index in North African Arid Montane Rangeland: Case of Toujane Region

by Jamila Msadek, Abderrazak Tlili, Farah Chouikhi, Athanasios Ragkos and Mohamed Tarhouni

Climate 2025, 13(3), 59; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13030059 - 15 Mar 2025

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 649

Abstract

Radiometric vegetation indices are considered good indicators of vegetation health and can contribute to explaining its current and future evolutions. This study is carried out in the arid mountain rangeland of Toujane (southeast of Tunisia). The aim is to predict how climate change [...] Read more.

Radiometric vegetation indices are considered good indicators of vegetation health and can contribute to explaining its current and future evolutions. This study is carried out in the arid mountain rangeland of Toujane (southeast of Tunisia). The aim is to predict how climate change will affect the Soil-Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI) values under dryland conditions. Current and future SAVI indices are analyzed using the maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt). The Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5) represents the data source of two future climatic scenarios. These last, called Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP245, SSP585), concern four time periods (2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100). Three topographic, twelve soil, and nineteen climatic variables are undertaken during each period. The main results of the jackknife test show that temperature, precipitation, and some soil variables are the main factors influencing SAVI indices. Specifically, they affect plant growth and vegetation cover, which in turn modify the SAVI index. Based on the area under the receiving curve, the model shows high predictive accuracy for a high SAVI (AUC = 0.88 − 0.92). These findings show that land management strategies may be incumbent upon to reduce the vulnerability linked to climate change in Toujane rangelands. Full article

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24 pages, 9298 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Variation in the Extreme Temperatures and Related Climate Indices for the Marche Region, Italy

by Luciano Soldini and Giovanna Darvini

Climate 2025, 13(3), 58; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13030058 - 10 Mar 2025

Viewed by 549

Abstract

This paper presents a study on the evolution of extreme temperatures in the Marche region, Central Italy. To this end, a complete dataset compiled using data collected from available thermometric stations over the years 1957–2019 based on minimum and maximum daily temperatures was [...] Read more.

This paper presents a study on the evolution of extreme temperatures in the Marche region, Central Italy. To this end, a complete dataset compiled using data collected from available thermometric stations over the years 1957–2019 based on minimum and maximum daily temperatures was selected. The yearly mean values of extreme temperature and relative climate indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices were calculated, and a trend analysis was performed. The spatial distribution of the trends was assessed, and the variations in extreme temperatures in the medium–long term were considered by calculating mean values with respect to different climatological standard normals and decades. The analyzed parameters show that extreme heat events characterized by increasing intensity and frequency have occurred over the years, while cold weather events have decreased. A high percentage of stations recorded an increase in all indices related to daily maximum temperatures, and a simultaneous decline of those related to daily minimum values, under both nighttime and daytime conditions. This phenomenon characterizes the entire Marche region. A detailed analysis of the heat wave indices confirms an increasing trend, with a notable increase beginning in the early 1980s. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Variability in the Mediterranean Region)

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27 pages, 6566 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Climate Change and Its Impact on Natural Resources and Rural Livelihoods: Gendered Perspectives from Naryn, Kyrgyzstan

by Azamat Azarov, Maksim Kulikov, Roy C. Sidle and Vitalii Zaginaev

Climate 2025, 13(3), 57; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13030057 - 10 Mar 2025

Viewed by 1134

Abstract

Climate change poses significant threats to rural communities in Kyrgyzstan, particularly for agriculture, which relies heavily on natural resources. In Naryn Province, rising temperatures and increasing natural hazards amplify vulnerabilities, especially in high mountain areas. Addressing these challenges requires understanding both environmental factors [...] Read more.

Climate change poses significant threats to rural communities in Kyrgyzstan, particularly for agriculture, which relies heavily on natural resources. In Naryn Province, rising temperatures and increasing natural hazards amplify vulnerabilities, especially in high mountain areas. Addressing these challenges requires understanding both environmental factors and the perceptions of affected communities, as these shape adaptive responses. This study enhances understanding of climate change impacts on communities in Naryn Province by combining environmental and social assessments through a gendered lens, with a particular focus on women. Environmental data, including air temperature, precipitation, river discharge, and satellite-derived vegetation indices, were analyzed to evaluate changes in vegetation and water resources. Social data were collected through interviews with 298 respondents (148 women and 150 men) across villages along the Naryn River, with chi-square analysis used to examine gender-specific perceptions and impacts on livelihoods. The results indicated a noticeable rise in temperatures and a slight decline in precipitation over recent decades, affecting vegetation and grazing areas near settlements. While respondents of both genders reported similar observations, differences emerged in how changes affect their roles and activities, with localized variations linked to household and agricultural responsibilities. The findings highlight the need for inclusive adaptation strategies that address diverse experiences and priorities, providing a foundation for equitable and effective climate resilience measures. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Climate Adaptation and Mitigation)

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18 pages, 382 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Addressing the Impact of Complex English Use in Communicating Climate Change in Nigerian Communities Through Contextual Understanding

by Chinwe P. Oramah, Tochukwu A. Ngwu and Chinwe Ngozi Odimegwu

Climate 2025, 13(3), 56; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13030056 - 9 Mar 2025

Viewed by 917

Abstract

The effective implementation of preparedness and response strategies toward climate change resilience has evolved into a technical, sociopolitical, and communication issue. We argue that, for climate communication to effectively contribute to community resilience, it demands meaningful dialogue and engagement to facilitate understanding. Using [...] Read more.

The effective implementation of preparedness and response strategies toward climate change resilience has evolved into a technical, sociopolitical, and communication issue. We argue that, for climate communication to effectively contribute to community resilience, it demands meaningful dialogue and engagement to facilitate understanding. Using the risk communication theory, we assessed the impact of complex English language on climate change understanding in Nigerian communities where local languages are predominant. Through surveys and semi-structured interviews, we found that current communication strategies are ineffective and misaligned with the local context, traditional knowledge systems, and specific community concerns, therefore marginalizing local actors from meaningful participation. The translation of climate communication into climate change action is challenging for local actors due to prevailing exclusion from discussion and a lack of engagement, which contributes to misunderstanding and poor climate change action. The study indicates that enhancing climate change communication in Nigeria necessitates the development of integrative strategies tailored to the language, cultural, and educational context that will encourage the local actors to participate effectively in this discussion. The paper recommends translating information into local languages and integrating local proverbs and mythological interpretations that can be positively employed to combat climate change within these communities more organically. Full article

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19 pages, 722 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Social Acceptance of Renewable Energy Communities: The Role of Socio-Political Control and Impure Altruism

by Marialuisa Menegatto, Andrea Bobbio, Gloria Freschi and Adriano Zamperini

Climate 2025, 13(3), 55; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13030055 - 6 Mar 2025

Viewed by 1217

Abstract

The ever-worsening climate crisis necessitates a shift toward sustainable energy systems that prioritise citizen participation. Renewable Energy Communities (RECs) present a unique opportunity to enhance local resilience, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and foster climate mitigation and adaptation through participatory governance. This exploratory study [...] Read more.

The ever-worsening climate crisis necessitates a shift toward sustainable energy systems that prioritise citizen participation. Renewable Energy Communities (RECs) present a unique opportunity to enhance local resilience, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and foster climate mitigation and adaptation through participatory governance. This exploratory study investigates the psychosocial predictors of social acceptance for RECs, with a focus on Socio-political Control and Warm-glow Motivation as key determinants. To this end, we collected 107 questionnaires completed by residents of the metropolitan city of Padua, which is engaged in the EU’s 100 Climate-Neutral Cities by 2030 mission. The results indicate a generally favourable attitude toward RECs and reveal that Socio-political Control, defined as the perceived ability to influence societal and political systems, positively predicts community energy acceptance. Furthermore, Impure Altruism (Warm-glow Motivation) mediates this relationship, underscoring the importance of intrinsic emotional rewards in fostering support for sustainable energy projects. These findings highlight the interplay between individual agency and emotional satisfaction in promoting energy transitions. This study underscores the need for participatory governance and tailored communication strategies to enhance public engagement with RECs. Limitations and avenues for future research are discussed, emphasising the need for broader cross-cultural investigations and experimental designs. Full article

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14 pages, 5208 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Long-Term and Seasonal Analysis of Storm-Wave Events in the Gulf of California

by Cuauhtémoc Franco-Ochoa, Yedid Guadalupe Zambrano-Medina, Sergio Alberto Monjardin-Armenta and Sergio Arturo Rentería-Guevara

Climate 2025, 13(3), 54; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13030054 - 4 Mar 2025

Viewed by 739

Abstract

Coastal zones are threatened by extreme meteorological phenomena such as storm–wave events. Understanding storm-wave events is essential for sustainable coastal management. This study analyzed the temporal variability (both long-term and seasonal) of the frequency and energy content of storm-wave events in the Gulf [...] Read more.

Coastal zones are threatened by extreme meteorological phenomena such as storm–wave events. Understanding storm-wave events is essential for sustainable coastal management. This study analyzed the temporal variability (both long-term and seasonal) of the frequency and energy content of storm-wave events in the Gulf of California for the period 1980–2020 using storm-wave data from the fifth-generation climate reanalysis dataset (ERA5). The results indicate that storm events in the Gulf of California are becoming more frequent and energetic. Storm-wave events coming from the north are more frequent but less energetic than those coming from the south. Throughout the year, storm-wave events from both the north and south show seasonal behavior. This paper aims to enhance the understanding of storm-wave events in the Gulf of California and serve as a foundation for future studies, such as coastal impact assessments. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Coastal Hazards under Climate Change)

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17 pages, 10152 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Analysis of the Relationship Between Microclimate and Building Energy Loads Based on Apartment Complex Layout Types

by Sumin Lee, Sukjin Jung and Seonghwan Yoon

Climate 2025, 13(3), 53; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13030053 - 3 Mar 2025

Viewed by 638

Abstract

This study provides fundamental data for optimal planning by analyzing key factors influencing microclimate and building energy loads. * to provide fundamental data for optimal planning. A total of 11 apartment layout types, including tower-type, flat-type, and mixed-type configurations, were analyzed using ENVI-met [...] Read more.

This study provides fundamental data for optimal planning by analyzing key factors influencing microclimate and building energy loads. * to provide fundamental data for optimal planning. A total of 11 apartment layout types, including tower-type, flat-type, and mixed-type configurations, were analyzed using ENVI-met simulations. The results indicate that layout types significantly influence microclimate and energy consumption. Tower-type layouts enhanced wind flow, reducing surface temperatures and cooling loads. In contrast, dense flat-type layouts restricted airflow, leading to heat accumulation and increased cooling energy demand. Mixed layouts exhibited varied effects depending on the proportion of open spaces and high-density clusters. Additionally, south-facing layouts optimized solar radiation, reducing heating loads, whereas east–west-facing layouts experienced imbalanced solar exposure, increasing cooling demand by 15–20% in the summer. Horizontal parallel and staggered layouts improved ventilation efficiency and mitigated heat accumulation, making them effective strategies for enhancing microclimate and reducing energy consumption. This study confirms that apartment layout planning plays a crucial role in microclimate regulation and energy efficiency. The findings can guide architectural strategies to improve thermal comfort and reduce building energy consumption. Full article

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20 pages, 1469 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Wither Adaptation Action

by Janet Stanley and Michael Spencer

Climate 2025, 13(3), 52; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13030052 - 3 Mar 2025

Viewed by 928

Abstract

Longitudinal research commenced in 2012 and was repeated in 2022 in two regional areas in Victoria, Australia. The researchers sought to understand the facilitators and barriers to climate adaptation, given the perception of the authors that climate adaptation was making little progress, a [...] Read more.

Longitudinal research commenced in 2012 and was repeated in 2022 in two regional areas in Victoria, Australia. The researchers sought to understand the facilitators and barriers to climate adaptation, given the perception of the authors that climate adaptation was making little progress, a view supported following an extensive literature review and international consultations. Adaptation was not part of the debate when climate change was first discussed by the UN General Assembly in 1988 and not identified by the IPCC until 2007. Recent Australian governments have shown a ‘hands-off’ and uniformed approach. Research workshops and consultations sought the views of residents, community organisations, local governments and representatives of state agencies, who were invited or requested attendance. The workshops were designed to understand the perspective of participants, using a Search Conference methodology with both guided questions and participant-led issues. The results suggest that, despite the presence of many adaptation plans, the fundamental arrangements needed for the scale of adaptation required were not in place in 2012, nor in 2022. There was a lack of federal and state government action beyond their own institutional structures, responsibility for action being passed down the line to local government, business and community. Yet this devolvement was commonly not accompanied by financial support, supportive and inclusive governance arrangements, expert advice, data, or clear guidance for action. Climate adaptation policy remains disconnected from the broader economy, with little progress on how to achieve this task, which is rapidly growing in size and complexity. There is not an accepted roadmap for effective adaptation, an approach that does not easily fit into the risk-averse approach of public sector management that has prevailed in Australia since the 1980s. Full article

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39 pages, 12565 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Integrating Land Use/Land Cover and Climate Change Projections to Assess Future Hydrological Responses: A CMIP6-Based Multi-Scenario Approach in the Omo–Gibe River Basin, Ethiopia

by Paulos Lukas, Assefa M. Melesse and Tadesse Tujuba Kenea

Climate 2025, 13(3), 51; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13030051 - 28 Feb 2025

Viewed by 1087

Abstract

It is imperative to assess and comprehend the hydrological processes of the river basin in light of the potential effects of land use/land cover and climate changes. The study’s main objective was to evaluate hydrologic response of water balance components to the projected [...] Read more.

It is imperative to assess and comprehend the hydrological processes of the river basin in light of the potential effects of land use/land cover and climate changes. The study’s main objective was to evaluate hydrologic response of water balance components to the projected land use/land cover (LULC) and climate changes in the Omo–Gibe River Basin, Ethiopia. The study employed historical precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature data from meteorological stations, projected LULC change from module for land use simulation and evaluation (MOLUSCE) output, and climate change scenarios from coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) global climate models (GCMs). Landsat thematic mapper (TM) (2007) enhanced thematic mapper plus (ETM+) (2016), and operational land imager (OLI) (2023) image data were utilized for LULC change analysis and used as input in MOLUSCE simulation to predict future LULC changes for 2047, 2073, and 2100. The predictive capacity of the model was evaluated using performance evaluation metrics such as Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), the coefficient of determination (R2), and percent bias (PBIAS). The bias correction and downscaling of CMIP6 GCMs was performed via CMhyd. According to the present study’s findings, rainfall will drop by up to 24% in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s while evapotranspiration will increase by 21%. The findings of this study indicate that in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s time periods, the average annual Tmax will increase by 5.1, 7.3, and 8.7%, respectively under the SSP126 scenario, by 5.2, 10.5, and 14.9%, respectively under the SSP245 scenario, by 4.7, 11.3, and 20.7%, respectively, under the SSP585 scenario while Tmin will increase by 8.7, 13.1, and 14.6%, respectively, under the SSP126 scenario, by 1.5, 18.2, and 27%, respectively, under the SSP245 scenario, and by 4.7, 30.7, and 48.2%, respectively, under the SSP585 scenario. Future changes in the annual average Tmax, Tmin, and precipitation could have a significant effect on surface and subsurface hydrology, reservoir sedimentation, hydroelectric power generation, and agricultural production in the OGRB. Considering the significant and long-term effects of climate and LULC changes on surface runoff, evapotranspiration, and groundwater recharge in the Omo–Gibe River Basin, the following recommendations are essential for efficient water resource management and ecological preservation. National, regional, and local governments, as well as non-governmental organizations, should develop and implement a robust water resources management plan, promote afforestation and reforestation programs, install high-quality hydrological and meteorological data collection mechanisms, and strengthen monitoring and early warning systems in the Omo–Gibe River Basin. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Modelling for the Influences of Climate and Landscape Processes on Hydrology)

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26 pages, 359 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Coalition Formation with Cooperation-Enhancing Transfers When Players Are Heterogeneous and Inequality-Averse

by Marco Rogna and Carla Vogt

Climate 2025, 13(3), 50; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13030050 - 28 Feb 2025

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 420

Abstract

Obtaining significant levels of cooperation in public goods and environmental games, under the assumption of players being purely selfish, is usually prevented by the problem of free riding. Coalitions, in fact, generally fail to be internally stable, and this causes a serious under-provision [...] Read more.

Obtaining significant levels of cooperation in public goods and environmental games, under the assumption of players being purely selfish, is usually prevented by the problem of free riding. Coalitions, in fact, generally fail to be internally stable, and this causes a serious under-provision of the public good, together with a significant welfare loss. The assumption of relational preferences, capable of better explaining economic behaviours in laboratory experiments, helps to foster cooperation, but, without adequate transfer scheme, no substantial improvements are reached. The present paper proposes a cooperation-enhancing transfer scheme under the assumption of players having Fehr and Schmidt utility functions, whose objectives are to guarantee internal stability and to maximize the sum of the utilities of coalition members. The transfer scheme is tested on a public goods contribution game parameterized on the data provided by the RICE model and benchmarked with other popular transfer schemes in environmental economics. The proposed scheme outperforms its benchmarking counterparts in stabilizing coalitions, and sensibly increases cooperation compared to the absence of transfers. Furthermore, for high but not extreme values of the parameter governing the intensity of dis-utility from disadvantageous inequality, it manages to support very large coalitions. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Policy, Governance, and Social Equity)

14 pages, 3483 KiB

Open AccessArticle

From Optimism to Risk: The Impact of Climate Change on Temperature Sums in Central Europe

by Martin Minárik, Vladimír Kišš, Agnieszka Ziernicka-Wojtaszek, Martin Prčík, Ján Čimo and Katarína Mikulová

Climate 2025, 13(3), 49; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13030049 - 28 Feb 2025

Viewed by 828

Abstract

This study examines the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity in Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and Poland, focusing on temperature sums influencing the growing season. Using meteorological data from 2001 to 2020, the research analyses the onset and termination of temperatures ≥5 [...] Read more.

This study examines the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity in Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and Poland, focusing on temperature sums influencing the growing season. Using meteorological data from 2001 to 2020, the research analyses the onset and termination of temperatures ≥5 °C (growing season). Temperature sums for two periods (2001–2010, 2011–2020) were calculated and future temperature projections under three scenarios (+1.5 °C, +2.6 °C, +3.6 °C) were developed. Results indicate regional variation in temperature sums, with 69% of the area falling in the 2900–3100 °C range, and Poland showing the highest percentage (81%). In the second decade of the 21st century, temperature sums shifted to the 3100–3300 °C range, affecting 63% of the region. The projections indicate a substantial increase in temperature sums, with the most optimistic scenario (+1.5 °C) leading to the dominance of the 3700–3900 °C range. The warmest areas (West Pannonian Basin), show a temperature sum of 4900–5100 °C. The comparison of predicted and observed temperature sums for 2011–2020 shows a minimal error (±3% in Slovakia and ±4% in Poland and the Czech Republic), confirming the projections. These findings highlight the importance of adaptive strategies in agriculture, particularly fruit farming, to mitigate the climate change effects. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Climate Dynamics and Modelling)

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19 pages, 3961 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Examining Recent Climate Changes in Ghana and a Comparison with Local Malaria Case Rates

by Ekuwa Adade, Steven Smith and Andrew Russell

Climate 2025, 13(3), 48; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13030048 - 27 Feb 2025

Viewed by 719

Abstract

This study investigated recent climate changes in Ghana and compared these changes to a new malaria case rates dataset for 2008–2022. The analysis was implemented at three spatial scales: national, regional, and by ‘climate zone’ (i.e., coastal, savannah, and forest zones). Descriptive statistics, [...] Read more.

This study investigated recent climate changes in Ghana and compared these changes to a new malaria case rates dataset for 2008–2022. The analysis was implemented at three spatial scales: national, regional, and by ‘climate zone’ (i.e., coastal, savannah, and forest zones). Descriptive statistics, qualitative discussion and correlation analysis were used to compare the climate variability to the malaria case rates. The climate analysis identified a general warming over the period with a mid-2010s maximum temperature peak in the forest and savannah zones, also associated with changes in the annual temperature cycle. Malaria case rates increased between 2008 and 2013, decreased sharply in 2014, and then decreased steadily from 2015 to 2022 for all scales. The sharp decline was broadly coincident with a change in the temperature regime that would provide a less favourable environment for the malaria vectors (precipitation and humidity showed no comparable changes). These coincident changes were particularly noticeable for an increase in maximum temperatures in the savannah and coastal zones in the key malaria transmission months after 2014. Correlation analysis showed statistically significant (p < 0.05) relationships between malaria case rates and mean and maximum temperatures at the national scale, and malaria case rates and mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures for the coastal climate zone (precipitation and humidity showed no significant correlations). However, more sophisticated methods are required to further understand this multidimensional system. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change, Health and Multidisciplinary Approaches)

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17 pages, 6963 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Projected Drought Intensification in the Büyük Menderes Basin Under CMIP6 Climate Scenarios

by Farzad Rotbeei, Mustafa Nuri Balov, Mir Jafar Sadegh Safari and Babak Vaheddoost

Climate 2025, 13(3), 47; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13030047 - 26 Feb 2025

Viewed by 634

Abstract

The amplitude and interval of drought events are expected to enhance in upcoming years resulting from global warming and climate alterations. Understanding future drought events’ potential impacts is important for effective regional adaptation and mitigation approaches. The main goal of this research is [...] Read more.

The amplitude and interval of drought events are expected to enhance in upcoming years resulting from global warming and climate alterations. Understanding future drought events’ potential impacts is important for effective regional adaptation and mitigation approaches. The main goal of this research is to study the impacts of climate change on drought in the Büyük Menderes Basin located in the Aegean region of western Türkiye by using the outcomes of three general circulation models (GCMs) from CMIP6 considering two different emission scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). Following a bias correction using a linear scaling method, daily precipitation and temperature projections are used to compute the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The effectiveness of the GCMs in projecting precipitation and temperature is evaluated using observational data from the reference period (1985–2014). Future drought conditions are then assessed based on drought indices for three periods: 2015–2040 (near future), 2041–2070 (mid-term future), and 2071–2100 (late future). Consequently, the number of dry months is projected and expected to elevate, informed by SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, during the late-century timeframe (2071–2100) in comparison to the baseline period (1985–2014). The findings of this study offer an important understanding for crafting adaptation strategies aimed at reducing future drought impacts in the Büyük Menderes Basin in the face of changing climate conditions. Full article

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23 pages, 13840 KiB

Open AccessArticle

A Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Simulation of Changes in Precipitation and Snowpack in a Warmer Climate over the Interior Western United States

by Yonggang Wang, Bart Geerts, Changhai Liu and Xiaoqin Jing

Climate 2025, 13(3), 46; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13030046 - 24 Feb 2025

Viewed by 553

Abstract

This study investigates the impacts of climate change on precipitation and snowpack in the interior western United States (IWUS) using two sets of convection-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations. One simulation represents the ~1990 climate, and another represents an ~2050 climate using [...] Read more.

This study investigates the impacts of climate change on precipitation and snowpack in the interior western United States (IWUS) using two sets of convection-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations. One simulation represents the ~1990 climate, and another represents an ~2050 climate using a pseudo-global warming approach. Climate perturbations for the future climate are given by the CMIP5 ensemble-mean global climate models under the high-end emission scenario. The study analyzes the projected changes in spatial patterns of seasonal precipitation and snowpack, with particular emphasis on the effects of elevation on orographic precipitation and snowpack changes in four key mountain ranges: the Montana Rockies, Greater Yellowstone area, Wasatch Range, and Colorado Rockies. The IWUS simulations reveal an increase in annual precipitation across the majority of the IWUS in this warmer climate, driven by more frequent heavy to extreme precipitation events. Winter precipitation is projected to increase across the domain, while summer precipitation is expected to decrease, particularly in the High Plains. Snow-to-precipitation ratios and snow water equivalent are expected to decrease, especially at lower elevations, while snowpack melt is projected to occur earlier by up to 26 days in the ~2050 climate, highlighting significant impacts on regional water resources and hydrological management. Full article

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13 pages, 1212 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Clean Air Benefits and Climate Penalty: A Health Impact Analysis of Mortality Trends in the Mid-South Region, USA

by Chunrong Jia, Hongmei Zhang, Namuun Batbaatar, Abu Mohd Naser, Ying Li and Ilias Kavouras

Climate 2025, 13(3), 45; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13030045 - 22 Feb 2025

Viewed by 974

Abstract

The lowering air pollution in the US has brought significant health benefits; however, climate change may offset the benefits by increasing the temperature and worsening air quality. This study aimed to estimate the mortality changes due to air pollution reductions and evaluate the [...] Read more.

The lowering air pollution in the US has brought significant health benefits; however, climate change may offset the benefits by increasing the temperature and worsening air quality. This study aimed to estimate the mortality changes due to air pollution reductions and evaluate the potential climate penalty in the Mid-South Region of the US. Daily concentrations of PM_2.5 and ozone measured at local monitoring stations in 1999–2019 were extracted from the US Environmental Protection Agency’s Air Quality System. Meteorological data for the same period were obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Local Climatological Data. Annual average age-adjusted all-cause mortality rates (MRs) were downloaded from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s WONDERS Databases. MRs attributable to exposure to PM_2.5, ozone, and high temperatures in warm months were estimated using their corresponding health impact functions. Using Year 1999 as the baseline, contributions of environmental changes to MR reductions were calculated. Results showed that annual average concentrations of PM_2.5 and ozone decreased by 46% and 23% in 2019, respectively, compared with the base year; meanwhile, the mean daily temperature in the warm season fluctuated and displayed an insignificant increasing trend (Kendall’s tau = 0.16, p = 0.30). MRs displayed a significant decreasing trend and dropped by 215 deaths/100,000 person-year in 2019. Lower PM_2.5 and ozone concentrations were estimated to reduce 59 and 30 deaths/100,000 person-year, respectively, contributing to 23% and 17% of MR reductions, respectively. The fluctuating temperatures had negligible impacts on mortality changes over the two-decade study period. This study suggests that improved air quality may have contributed to mortality reductions, while the climate penalty effects appeared to be insignificant in the Mid-South Region. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Confronting the Climate Change and Health Nexus: Interactions, Impacts, and Adaptation Strategies)

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18 pages, 18199 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Diel Variation in Summer Stream Temperature in an Idaho Desert Stream and Implications for Identifying Thermal Refuges

by Mel Campbell, Donna Delparte, Matthew Belt, Zhongqi Chen, Christopher C. Caudill and Trevor Caughlin

Climate 2025, 13(3), 44; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13030044 - 22 Feb 2025

Viewed by 963

Abstract

Thermal refuges in streams are essential for the survival of coldwater fish species such as Redband trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in landscapes with stressful or lethal stream temperatures. We utilized an uncrewed aerial system (UAS) mounted with thermal and natural color sensors [...] Read more.

Thermal refuges in streams are essential for the survival of coldwater fish species such as Redband trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in landscapes with stressful or lethal stream temperatures. We utilized an uncrewed aerial system (UAS) mounted with thermal and natural color sensors to conduct hourly flights over a 24 h period in the desert stream Little Jacks Creek during late summer when temperatures were near seasonal maximums and streamflow was near seasonal minimums. We used fine-resolution imagery to map stream temperatures and characterize how our thermal sensor exhibits variability across a diel period in an environment where thermal sensor viability had not yet been assessed. Thermal imagery from 3 out of 24 flights showed no significant differences when compared to true water temperatures from in-stream temperature loggers, which appeared to be highly dependent on atmospheric conditions. The thermal imagery (range of

9.17

to

21.04 °

C) consistently underestimated HOBO logger stream temperatures (range of

13.6

to

17.1 °

C) during cooler, nighttime flights and overestimated temperatures during hotter, afternoon hours, resulting in a global RMSE of 2.12

°

C. Between-flight RMSE values ranged from 0.53

°

C to 4.00

°

C, within the error range of the thermal sensor. The thermal data support existing findings of optimal hours for flying UAS thermal surveys and showed specific patterns in TIR sensor accuracy that were dependent on the time of flight. This study yields valuable lessons for future stream temperature data collection in environments with highly variable temperatures, aiding in the calibration of thermal sensors on UAS missions. Furthermore, our results provide insights into environmental stressors such as increased stream temperatures, which is vital for conservation efforts for organisms that rely on coldwater refuges within desert streams. Full article

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39 pages, 4035 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Feedback Trends with ECS from Energy Rates: Feedback Doubling and the Vital Need for Solar Geoengineering

by Alec Feinberg

Climate 2025, 13(3), 43; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13030043 - 21 Feb 2025

Viewed by 880

Abstract

This paper provides climate feedback trends, quantifies the feedback-doubling (FD) period, considers urbanization influences, and provides related equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) estimates using data from 1880 to 2024. Data modeling is accomplished by focusing on statistically significant stable normalized correlated rates (NCRs, i.e., [...] Read more.

This paper provides climate feedback trends, quantifies the feedback-doubling (FD) period, considers urbanization influences, and provides related equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) estimates using data from 1880 to 2024. Data modeling is accomplished by focusing on statistically significant stable normalized correlated rates (NCRs, i.e., normalized related slopes). Estimates indicate that the global warming NCR is increasing by a factor of 1.65 to 2.33 times faster than the energy consumption NCR, from 1975 to 2024. The reason is feedback amplification. This is supported by the fact that the NCR for forcing and energy consumption shows approximate equivalency in the period studied. Results provide feedback yearly trend estimates at the 95% confidence level that key results will fall within the IPCC AR6 likely range. The projected 2017–2024 feedback amplification estimates, using the EC approach, range from 2.0 to 2.16, respectively. A feedback amplification of 2.0 (approximately equal to −2.74 Wm⁻² K⁻¹) doubles the forcing, indicating that in 2024, more than half of global warming (53.7%) is likely due to feedback. Relative to the feedback-doubling (FD) threshold (i.e., the point where feedback exceeds forcing), the FD overage is 3.7% in 2024. This is the amount of feedback exceeding the FD threshold found to have a surprisingly aggressive 3.1% to 3.9% estimated overage growth rate per decade. We now ask, shouldn’t we try to mitigate feedback as well as GHG forcing, and if forcing could be removed, how would global warming fully “self-mitigate”? Additionally, CO₂ yearly increases are complex, with poor reduction progress. Therefore, this study’s risk assessment urgently recommends supplementary “mild” annual solar geoengineering as a minimum requirement, to reduce the dominant aggressive feedback. SG reduces the primary solar warming source creating 62% higher mitigation efficiency than CDR. Urgency is enhanced since solar geoengineering must be timely and can take years to develop. This study also estimates that 75% to 90.5% (83% average) of the feedback problem is due to water vapor feedback (WVF). High WVF also plagues many cities needing local SG. Trend analysis indicates that by 2047, the earliest we may reach 10 billion people, feedback amplification could reach a value of 2.4 to 2.8. Furthermore, by 2082, the year estimated for 2× CO₂, at the current rate, feedback amplification could range from 2.88 to 3.71. This yields an ECS range from 2.4 °C to 3.07 °C, in reasonable agreement with the reported estimated range in AR6. An overview of recent urbanization forcing attribution indicates the ECS value may be lower by 10.7% if this forcing is considered. For numerous reasons, the lack of albedo urbanization Earth brightening requirements in the Paris Agreement, is unsettling and urgently needed. In addition, a model assesses effective forced feedback (EFF) temperature characteristics of up to 1.9 °C, providing interesting feedback insights that may relate to high GW land and pipeline temperature estimates. Lastly in addition to urbanization, solar geoengineering in the Arctic and Antarctic is advised. Worldwide efforts in GHG mitigation, with no significant work in SG, appears highly misdirected. Full article

(This article belongs to the Collection Adaptation and Mitigation Practices and Frameworks)

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Climate, Volume 13, Issue 3 (March 2025) – 22 articles

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