J. Risk Financial Manag., Volume 13, Issue 6 (June 2020) – 31 articles

It is generally argued that Islamic banks are safer than conventional banks. The prime reason is that their product structure is essentially asset-backed financing, while conventional banks rely heavily on leveraging, which was considered one of the main causes of the 2008 global financial crisis. This paper examines the riskiness of Islamic and conventional banks during the 2008 global crisis by measuring overleveraging, defined as the difference between actual and optimal debt. This research conducted empirical analysis on the overleveraging of 20 banks (10 conventional and 10 Islamic banks) from five different countries, namely, Bahrain, Kuwait, Malaysia, the United States, and the United Kingdom. The analysis is double-folded: on the one hand, the results in this paper suggest that excess debt, rather than the mere holding of debt, was the reason behind the severe financial meltdown in 2007–2009; on the other hand, this paper shows that Islamic banks, in most of the countries in context, performed better during the recent crisis, but were subject to the second-round effect of the global crisis around the years of 2011–2013. Full article

This paper studies the relationship between portfolio diversification and fund performance, based on an unexplored, hand-collected dataset of buyout funds. The dataset comprises detailed information at the level of portfolio companies, which allows measuring the concentration of the fund portfolios towards individual companies, industrial, and geographical focus. Our results suggest that diversification within, but not across industries, associates with higher buyout fund performance. We do not find a significant relationship between geographical diversification and performance. These results partly contradict results documented in prior literature. Full article

This paper introduces risk factors in the field of healthcare and discusses the clinical risks, identification, risk management methods, and tools as well as the analysis of specific situations. Based on documentary analysis, an efficient and coherent methodological choice of an informative and non-interpretative approach, it relies on “unobtrusive” and “non-reactive” information sources, such that the research results are not influenced by the research process itself. To ensure objective and systematical analysis, our research involved three macro-phases: (a) the first involved a skimming (a superficial examination) of the documents collected; (b) the second reading (a thorough examination) allowed a selection of useful information; (c) the third phase involved classification and evaluation of the collected data. This iterative process combined the elements of content and thematic analysis that categorised the information into different categories which were related to the central issues for research purposes. Finally, from the perspective of safety analysis and risk management, we suggest that comprehensive control and operation should be conducted in a holistic way, including patient safety, cost consumption, and organizational responsibility. An organizational strategy that revolves around a constant and gradual risk management process is an important factor in clinical governance which focuses on the safety of patients, operators, and organizations. Full article

This study investigates the determinants for the use of derivatives by firms in the Indian market. Using a sample of 433 firms listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) in India for the period 2013–2018, we find that firm size, debt to equity, turnover, price–earnings ratio and the magnitude of international transactions are significant influential drivers responsible for pushing the firm to use derivatives for risk management. The findings also document that the financial distress of the firm, which is one of the important reasons for the use of derivatives in advanced economies, happens to be insignificant when it comes to developing countries like India. Using logistic regression, it is observed that highly levered firms condense the use of derivatives as part of a financial risk management strategy, which contradicts existing literature. All other findings are generally consistent with the theory of derivatives as well as with international evidence. Full article

The current literature focuses on the cocreation of brands in dynamic contexts, but the impact of the relationships among brands on branding is poorly documented. To address this gap a concept is proposed concerning the relationships between brands and a model is developed, showing the influence of the latter on the identity and reputation of brands. Therefore, the goal of this study is to develop a brand relationships concept and to build a framework relating it with corporate brand identity and reputation, in a higher consumer involvement context like higher education. Structural equation modelling (SEM) was used for this purpose. In line with this, interviews, cooperatively developed by higher education lecturers and brand managers, were carried out with focus groups of higher education students, and questionnaires conducted, with 216 complete surveys obtained. Data are analyzed using confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modelling. Results demonstrate that the concept of brand relationships comprises three dimensions: trust, commitment, and motivation. The structural model reveals robustness regarding the selected fit indicators, demonstrating that the relationships between brands influence brand identity and reputation. This suggests that managers must choose and promote brand relationships that gel with the identity and reputation of the primary brand they manage, to develop an integrated balanced product range. Full article

The aim of the presented article is to compare and evaluate the occurrence and level of marketability discount in developed and emerging markets in the example of the United States of America (USA) and Poland. According to the hypothesis put forward in the article, due to the smaller degree of development and depth of emerging markets, the marketability discount obtained in the context of the initial public offering (IPO) is lesser in its extent, as compared to the case when the IPO takes place in the developed market. The authors have made a statistic and econometric analysis based on a sample of nearly 200 IPOs in Poland and 1200 IPOs in the USA. The study used an analysis of the statistical differences between the groups (t-test), and also a linear modelling of the determinants of liquidity discount volume. The obtained results show that the stated hypothesis was correct, and that there are significant differences between the studied markets in reference to the marketability discount. The authors also concluded that the discount is not related to the condition of the company. Full article

In this paper, we suggest improved estimation strategies based on preliminarily test and shrinkage principles in a seemingly unrelated regression model when explanatory variables are affected by multicollinearity. To that end, we split the vector regression coefficient of each equation into two parts: one includes the coefficient vector for the main effects, and the other is a vector for nuisance effects, which could be close to zero. Therefore, two competing models per equation of the system regression model are obtained: one includes all the regression of coefficients (full model); the other (sub model) includes only the coefficients of the main effects based on the auxiliary information. The preliminarily test estimation improves the estimation procedure if there is evidence that the vector of nuisance parameters does not provide a useful contribution to the model. The shrinkage estimation method shrinks the full model estimator in the direction of the sub-model estimator. We conduct a Monte Carlo simulation study in order to examine the relative performance of the suggested estimation strategies. More importantly, we apply our methodology based on the preliminarily test and the shrinkage estimations to analyse economic data by investigating the relationship between foreign direct investment and several economic variables in the “Fragile Five” countries between 1983 and 2018. Full article

This paper is the first paper to provide a comprehensive review of the US regulatory treatment of a relatively recent and controversial source of funds, namely brokered deposits. To do this, we consider the extent to which banks rely on brokered deposits, as well as the impact of these funds on bank performance, bank failures, and bank failure costs. We also consider the changes taking place in technologies and how they continue to affect the way banks obtain funds and provide services to their customers. Our conclusion is that, without sufficient evidence to the contrary, such deposits should be treated no differently from all other deposits and other purchased funds. Full article

This work aims to illustrate an advanced quantitative methodology for measuring the credit risk of a loan portfolio allowing for diversification effects. Also, this methodology can allocate the credit capital coherently to each counterparty in the portfolio. The analytical approach used for estimating the portfolio credit risk is a binomial type based on a Monte Carlo Simulation. This method takes into account the default correlations among the credit counterparties in the portfolio by following a copula approach and utilizing the asset return correlations of the obligors, as estimated by rigorous statistical methods. Moreover, this model considers the recovery rates as stochastic and dependent on each other and on the time until defaults. The methodology utilized for coherently allocating credit capital in the portfolio estimates the marginal contributions of each obligor to the overall risk of the loan portfolio in terms of Expected Shortfall (ES), a risk measure more coherent and conservative than the traditional measure of Value-at-Risk (VaR). Finally, this advanced analytical structure is implemented to a hypothetical, but typical, loan portfolio of an Italian commercial bank operating across the overall national country. The national loan portfolio is composed of 17 sub-portfolios, or geographic clusters of credit exposures to 10,500 non-financial firms (or corporates) belonging to each geo-cluster or sub-portfolio. The outcomes, in terms of correlations, portfolio risk measures and capital allocations obtained from this advanced analytical framework, are compared with the results found by implementing the Internal Rating Based (IRB) approach of Basel II and III. Our chief conclusion is that the IRB model is unable to capture the real credit risk of loan portfolios because it does not take into account the actual dependence structure among the default events, and between the recovery rates and the default events. We underline that the adoption of this regulatory model can produce a dangerous underestimation of the portfolio credit risk, especially when the economic uncertainty and the volatility of the financial markets increase. Full article

Very recently, the link between exchange rate volatility and trade flows has entered into a new direction in which researchers assess the possibility of asymmetric response of trade flows to a measure of exchange rate uncertainty. We add to this literature by estimating a linear and a nonlinear ARDL model to learn about the experiences of Asian countries, i.e., Pakistan, Japan, China, Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, the Philippines, and India. Like other studies in the literature, nonlinear models yielded relatively more significant results. In some cases, while the linear models showed no significant effects of exchange rate volatility on trade flows, the nonlinear models revealed significant effects. In some other cases, the opposite was true. Full article

In this reply, we provide detailed answers to the remarks made by Tsionas on the use of stochastic frontier-based measures of market power in a part of our empirical study, which examines the fragmentation and convergence dynamics of market power, concentration and credit risk in the euro area banking sector during 2005–2017. Our answers clarify all the issues raised by Tsionas and show that the only challenging, in our opinion, point of the criticism has been based on a hypothesis that does not hold in the case of our study. Full article

Expansion of green bond markets as an appropriate way to lower environmental pollution is one of the most debatable issues among scholars. However, the expansion of this market is not a simple matter and depends on several factors. The main purpose of this study is to carry out a multi-dimensional analysis using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method to find and prioritize factors influencing the development of green bond markets. As a case, we do our analysis for Vietnam that, since the last years, has been trying to expand green bond market as an effective investment channel to finance low-carbon projects. The main findings revealed that legal infrastructure, official interest rate of green bonds, and economic stability are the most important factors directly affecting green bond market expansion. Therefore, economic and legal requirements should be addressed by policy makers. As major policy implications, we recommend an affordable price of green bonds and improvement of economic and financial stability to accelerate the development of green bond markets. Full article

We studied (i) the volatility feedback effect, defined as the relationship between contemporaneous returns and the market-based volatility, and (ii) the leverage effect, defined as the relationship between lagged returns and the current market-based volatility. For our analysis, we used daily measures of volatility estimated from high frequency data to explain volatility changes over time for both the S&P500 and FTSE100 indices. The period of analysis spanned from January 2000 to June 2017 incorporating various market phases, such as booms and crashes. Based on the estimated regressions, we found evidence that the returns of S&P500 and FTSE100 indices were well explained by a specific group of realized measure estimators, and the returns negatively affected realized volatility. These results are highly recommended to financial analysts dealing with high frequency data and volatility modelling. Full article

As the American early exercise results in a free boundary problem, in this article we add a penalty term to obtain a partial differential equation, and we also focus on an improved definition of the penalty term for American options. We replace the constant penalty parameter with a time-dependent function. The novelty and advantage of our approach consists in introducing a bounded, time-dependent penalty function, enabling us to construct an efficient, stable, and adaptive numerical approximation scheme, while in contrast, the existing standard approach to the penalisation of the American put option-free boundary problem involves a constant penalty parameter. To gain insight into the accuracy of our proposed extension, we compare the solution of the extension to standard reference solutions from the literature. This illustrates the improvement of using a penalty function instead of a penalising constant. Full article

In this paper, we consider asset pricing models under the multivariate t-distribution with finite second moment. Such a distribution, which contains the normal distribution, offers a more flexible framework for modeling asset returns. The main objective of this work is to develop statistical inference tools, such as parameter estimation and linear hypothesis tests in asset pricing models, with an emphasis on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). An extension of the CAPM, the Multifactor Asset Pricing Model (MAPM), is also discussed. A simple algorithm to estimate the model parameters, including the kurtosis parameter, is implemented. Analytical expressions for the Score function and Fisher information matrix are provided. For linear hypothesis tests, the four most widely used tests (likelihood-ratio, Wald, score, and gradient statistics) are considered. In order to test the mean-variance efficiency, explicit expressions for these four statistical tests are also presented. The results are illustrated using two real data sets: the Chilean Stock Market data set and another from the New York Stock Exchange. The asset pricing model under the multivariate t-distribution presents a good fit, clearly better than the asset pricing model under the assumption of normality, in both data sets. Full article

Income inequality is a major problem in Thailand. A key determinant of income inequality in Thailand is the lack of financial access to financial institutions for low-income families. Microfinance institutions (MFIs) play an important role in enabling poor households to access financial resources at a reasonable cost. The purpose of this paper is to investigate factors that affect Thai households participating in microfinance programs in Thailand. A multinomial logit model is used to investigate the factors that impact the Thai households’ access to microfinance. The study employs secondary data from the Thai Socioeconomic Survey (cross-sectional data in 2017) to identify factors affecting Thai household participation in microfinance programs. The results show that the Village Fund (VF) targets low-income rural households and encourages those with older household heads who have lower levels of education, and female household heads, to participate in their program. Larger households are more likely to access the VF. Households with higher dependency ratios are less likely to borrow from the VF. Households with well-educated, young household heads in regional areas are more likely to borrow money from Saving Groups for Production (SGPs). SGP borrower households have higher household incomes than VF borrower households. Our findings indicate that VFs and SGPs are credit sources in the rural credit market; these sources enable rural households to access credit to meet their needs. In addition, rural Thai households borrow from many sources so that they can rotate their loan repayments. Low-income households refinance their loans by borrowing from different sources. Full article

In this paper, the pricing performance of the generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) option pricing model is tested when applied to Bitcoin (BTCUSD). In addition, implied volatility indices (30, 60-and 90-days) of BTCUSD and the Cyptocurrency Index (CRIX) are generated by making use of the symmetric GARCH option pricing model. The results indicate that the GARCH option pricing model produces accurate European option prices when compared to market prices and that the BTCUSD and CRIX implied volatility indices are similar when compared, this is consistent with expectations because BTCUSD is highly weighted when calculating the CRIX. Furthermore, the term structure of volatility indices indicate that short-term volatility (30 days) is generally lower when compared to longer maturities. Furthermore, short-term volatility tends to increase to higher levels when compared to 60 and 90 day volatility when large jumps occur in the underlying asset. Full article

We present a modelling approach for sector asset pricing studies that incorporates sector-level risk factors, subgroup portfolios, and structural breakpoint tests that are better at isolating the time-varying nature and the firm-specific component of returns. Our results show considerable subsector heterogeneity, while the asset pricing model using local risk factors and inductive structural breaks results in a superior model ( $R^2$ of 80.42% relative to $R^2$ of 68.79% of “conventional” models). Finally, we show that some of the variances of residuals, normally assumed to be the firm-specific component of returns, can be attributed to the changing relationship between sector returns and risk factors. Full article

This paper examines the connectedness between Bitcoin and commodity volatilities, including oil, wheat, and corn, during the period Oct. 2013–Jun. 2018, using time- and frequency-domain frameworks. The time-domain framework’s results show that the connectedness is 23.49%, indicating a low level of connection between Bitcoin and the commodity volatilities. Bitcoin contributes only 2.55% to the connectedness, while the wheat volatility index accounts for 12.51% of the total connectedness. The frequency connectedness shows that Bitcoin’s contribution to the total connectedness increases from high-frequency to low-frequency bands, and the total connectedness reaches up to 22.47%. It also indicates that Bitcoin is the spillover transmitter to the wheat volatility, while being the spillover receiver from the oil and corn volatilities. The findings suggest that Bitcoin could be a hedger for commodity volatilities. Full article

This paper uses two highly liquid S&P 500 and gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to evaluate the impact of liquidity and macroeconomic news surprises on the frequency of observing intraday jumps. It explicitly addresses market microstructure noise-induced biases in realized estimators used in jump detection tests and applies non-parametric intraday jump detection tests. The results show a significant increase in trading costs and elevated levels of information asymmetry before observing jumps. Depth, resiliency, and trading activity are associated with the frequency of observing intraday jumps and cojumps. The ability of liquidity variables to predict intraday jumps persists after controlling for news surprises. Results show that intraday jump realizations affect the price discovery of ETFs. Full article

We examine the mediating role of capital structure in the perceived relationship of uncertainty, corporate social responsibility (CSR), stakeholder interest and financial performance. We collect data through questionnaires, and survey the Chief Financial Officers (CFOs) of the service sector of Pakistan. We apply Structure Equation Modeling (SEM) for data analysis. We find that CFOs perceive uncertainty, CSR and stakeholder interest to have both direct and indirect impacts on financial performance. In particular, we find evidence of the mediating effect of capital structure in the relationship. Our findings imply that firms screen out uncertain situations while making capital structure decision and pursuing CSR-related activities. Full article

This paper examines the behaviour of Bitcoin returns and those of several other cryptocurrencies in the pre and post period of the introduction of the Bitcoin futures market. We use the principal component-guided sparse regression (PC-LASSO) model to analyze several sample sizes for the pre and post periods. Besides the neighbourhood of the break time, the current period is also investigated as returns start to recover after some time. Search intensity is observed to be the most important variable for Bitcoin for all periods, whereas for the other cryptocurrencies there are other variables that seem more important in the pre period, while search intensity still stands out in the post period. Furthermore, GARCH analyses suggest that search intensity increases the volatility of Bitcoin returns more in the post period than it does in the pre period. Our empirical findings suggest that the top five cryptocurrencies are substitutes before the launch of Bitcoin futures. However, this effect is lost, and moreover, there are spillover effects on altcoins during both the post and the recovery period. We find a spillover effect of the introduction of bitcoin futures on altcoins and this effect seems to persist during the recovery period. Full article

Concerns about the negative consequences of the excessive underpricing of the current arrangement in the initial public offering (IPO) market for the provision of entrepreneurial finance—book building—have led to research into the viability of auctions for IPO pricing and allocation. IPO firms face a trade-off between the benefit of accurate and reliable IPO price discovery and the cost of underpricing. The main aim of this paper was to gain new scientific knowledge about this trade-off by measuring the impact of two key variables on this trade-off: capacity restraint and discount on the auction clearing price. Using controlled experiment methodology in multi-unit uniform price auctions we found that the most capacity-restricted auctions that also offer investors a discount are likely to produce the most accurate and reliable price discovery and consequently, the most predictable auction outcome. There are indications that a discount of 8% may suffice to incentivize investors to reliably contribute to price discovery. The resulting underpricing (and its variability) of these auctions is likely to be significantly lower than if book building would be used to price and allocate IPOs. Technological innovation in the IPO market through the application of recent advances in data science, experimental economics and artificial intelligence allows for the optimization of IPO mechanisms and crowdfunding platforms which in turn improves the access to equity required for entrepreneurial finance. Full article

Monetary historians argue that two types of currencies were circulating in the middle ages of Europe. The first was the standard historical form of money made up of gold and silver coins, and the second was a set of small pieces of copper and other metallic substances used mainly in towns and townships for local trade as currency. Jetton and tokens are monetized objects that are not official currencies; they were of lower quality of the inferior metallic object, which were used for day-to-day transaction needs. The drive for local monetary decentralization is pointed to build up fiscal autonomy and responsible local monetary institutions. This paper reasons that the monetary regime of the Renaissance was a real and genuine trimetallic currency regime. Full article

The purpose of the study presented in the paper is to highlight the influence of the microeconomic factors related to the evolutionary stage of the industry’s life cycle on the industry dynamics. The authors use the example of the Russian tourism industry to show that microeconomic factors are important, along with the macroeconomic, market, and demand characteristics external to the industry. Data mining was applied to obtain data from the industrial enterprise database and Rostourism official documents since there are no regular Russian statistics on firms’ exit and new entry. The authors used annual ranked listing of firms by their revenues to determine the structural indicators of the industry. The results confirm that it is important to consider not only the demand and macroeconomic indicators, which are external risks in relation to the industry, but also the internal processes at the different stages of the product cycle. In a sufficiently long period, the influence of microeconomic indicators may be no less strong than the business factors of financial risk. One should take this into consideration in econometric modeling on long time-series. Full article

The main objective is to answer the question: What role does the housing market play for the transmission mechanism and (in particular) is the impact constant over time? The research question also includes analyzing the importance of the housing market for the transmission mechanism. We estimate an eight-variable structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model of the Swedish economy over the period 1993 and 2018 using quarterly data, covering both the internet bubble in 2000 and the financial crises in 2008. The results indicate that interest rates have both a direct effect on housing prices and an indirect impact through the bank lending channel. Over time, the traditional interest rate channel importance has been stable. On the other hand, the role of the bank lending channel has increased over time. Household debt has increased substantially in Sweden and elsewhere. That means that the interest rate sensitivity in society has increased. Based on the results, it is possible to evaluate and forecast potential house price effects (both direct and indirect) when the interest rate changes. Full article

The existence of financial intermediaries is arguably an artifact of information asymmetry. Beyond simple financial transactions, financial intermediation provides a mechanism for information transmission, which can reduce the degree of information asymmetry and consequently increase market efficiency. During the process of information transmission, the bank is able to provide unique services in the production and exchange of information. Therefore, banks have comparative advantages in information production, transmission, and utilisation. In credit provision, it is possible for lenders to make Type I and Type II errors. These types of errors are associated with whether banks decide to lend money to borrowers with low repayment capacity or risk missing out on potentially profitable lending. However, the recent US subprime loan crisis and previous financial crises (such as the Mexican, Argentinian, Chilean and Asian financial crises) show it is possible that banks can make both good and bad lending decisions. Does this mean that banks have lost their comparative advantages in leveraging information asymmetry? This Special Issue includes contribution in empirical methods in banking such risk and bank performance, capital regulation, bank competition and foreign bank entry, bank regulation on bank performance, and capital adequacy and deposit insurance. Full article

As scholars and policy makers pay more attention to the environmental impact of economic activities, more focus has been placed on the corporate environmental responsibility (CER) of family firms, which accounts for the majority of businesses in both developed and developing countries. Using a sample of 4714 private enterprises across 23 provinces in China, the current study examines the effect of family ownership on CER investment, as well as the moderating effects of venture capital investment and local institutional development. Results show that concentrated family ownership leads to lower CER spending, however, when venture capital investment comes from developed markets, the negative relationship is reversed. In addition, the marketization level of the province in which a family firm is headquartered mitigates the negative relationship between family ownership and CER investment. Full article

This Special Issue publishes high quality papers on contemporary issues in business and economics in Vietnam and other Asian emerging markets. These papers were accepted and presented at the 2019 Vietnam’s Business and Economics Research Conference (VBER2019) organized by Ho Chi Minh City Open University, Vietnam in July 2019. Emerging issues in business and economics from Vietnam and other emerging markets in the Asian region have been addressed from various angles, from economics, finance, and statistics to management science. Five out of the 14 studies in this book were conducted to investigate various issues in relation to the Asian region such as the exchange rate regime in Asia, financial inclusion, and financial development and income inequality in Asian emerging markets. Seven studies were conducted in response to emerging business and economic issues in Vietnam such as fiscal decentralization, urbanization, foreign direct investment, and corporate financial distress. Other papers even considered various relevant aspects from the United States and Europe to the Asian region including double taxation treaties and agricultural shocks to the oil price. The findings from these papers are useful for practitioners, policymakers, and academics. Full article

Endogenous sunk-cost investments are optional fixed investment or capita, that a firm can choose to impact either upon its price-cost margin or its market share for capturing larger market spoils. Oft-cited examples are investments in vertical product (quality) differentiation, advertising outlays, and R&D type expenses for improving production processes. The importance of sunk-cost capital has been highlighted in the recent literature since these investments significantly influence the degree of competition in an industry mainly through forestalling entry and thereby limiting future competition in the industry. Sunk-cost investments play an important role in the debate on the competition-(in)stability perspectives for the banking industry. This paper is motivated by an important distinction, hitherto unrecognized, that some endogenous sunk-cost investments impact on the relative efficiencies of firms and thereby on its market spoils or profits, while others will only impact on its market share and thereby on profits. An example of this distinction is as follows: while quality improvement in a product or production processes will create efficiencies and, therefore, additional profits, while advertising expenses are used to snatch market shares from rivals. The unintended consequence of the first type of endogenous-sunk cost investment is to boost efficiencies and thereby shape the nature of competition in a market. The second type will have little effect on efficiencies. In this paper, by exploiting the above distinction and using a dataset created from the annual reports of nine major Islamic banks in Jordon during 1993–2010, we will apply the efficiency models and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) methodology to test if information technology (IT) capital is strategically used by Islamic banks as an endogenous sunk-cost investment to boost their relative efficiencies. For the first time—to the best of our knowledge—we find that IT capital is strategically used by seven out of the nine Islamic banks. We then consider the implication of the strategic use of IT capital by Islamic banks for the nature of competition in the Islamic bank industry of Jordon. By so doing, we also argue that IT capital, through its effects on the nature of competition, will lend stability to the Islamic banking industry of Jordan. Full article