Search Results (1,516)

Under China’s ‘Dual Carbon’ strategy, the power sector plays a central role in achieving carbon neutrality. This study develops a bi-level game-optimization model involving the government, power producers, and technology suppliers to explore the dynamic coordination between shadow carbon pricing and emission trajectories. The upper-level model, guided by the government, focuses on minimizing total costs, including emission reduction costs, technological investments, and operational costs, by dynamically adjusting emission targets and shadow carbon prices. The lower-level model employs evolutionary game theory to simulate the adaptive behaviors and strategic interactions among power producers, regulatory authorities, and technology suppliers. Three representative uncertainty scenarios, disruptive technological breakthroughs, major policy interventions, and international geopolitical shifts, are incorporated to evaluate system robustness. Simulation results indicate that an optimistic scenario is characterized by rapid technological advancement and strong policy incentives. Conversely, under a pessimistic scenario with sluggish technology development and weak regulatory frameworks, there are substantially higher transition costs. This research uniquely contributes by explicitly modeling dynamic feedback between policy and stakeholder behavior under multiple uncertainties, highlighting the critical roles of innovation-driven strategies and proactive policy interventions in shaping effective, resilient, and cost-efficient carbon pricing and low-carbon transition pathways in the power sector. Full article

Personal Rapid Transit (PRT) and Group Rapid Transit (GRT) are classes of fully automated public transport systems, where passengers can travel in small vehicles on an interconnected, grade-separated network of guideways, non-stop, from origin to destination. PRT and GRT are considered sustainable as they are low-emission and able to attract car drivers. The parameterized cost modeling framework developed in this paper has the advantage that profitability of different PRT/GRT systems can be rapidly verified in a transparent way and in function of a variety of relevant system parameters. This framework may contribute to a more transparent, rapid, and low-cost evaluation of PRT/GRT schemes for planning and decision-making purposes. The main innovation is the introduction of the “peak hour network saturation” S: the number of vehicles in circulation during peak hour divided by the maximum number of vehicles running at line speed with minimum time headways. It is an index that aggregates the main uncertainties in the planning process, namely the demand level relative to the supply level. Furthermore, a maximum S can be estimated for a PRT/GRT project, even without a detailed demand estimation. The profit per trip is analytically derived based on S and a series of more certain parameters, such as fares, capital and maintenance costs, daily demand curve, empty vehicle share, and physical properties of the system. To demonstrate the ability of the framework to analyze profitability in function of various parameters, we apply the methods to a single vehicle PRT, a platooned PRT, and a mixed PRT/GRT. The results show that PRT services with trip length proportional fares could be profitable already for $S>0.25$. The PRT capacity, profitability, and robustness to tripled infrastructure costs can be increased by vehicle platooning or GRT service during peak hours. Full article

As urbanization accelerates and climate change intensifies, the ecological integrity of urban riparian forests faces growing threats, underscoring the need for a systematic framework to guide their sustainable management. To address this gap, we developed a causal framework by applying text mining and sentence classification to 1001 abstracts from previous studies, structured within the DPSIR (Driver–Pressure–State–Impact–Response) model. The analysis identified six dominant thematic clusters—water quality, ecosystem services, basin and land use management, climate-related stressors, anthropogenic impacts, and greenhouse gas emissions—which reflect the multifaceted concerns surrounding urban riparian forest research. These themes were synthesized into a structured causal model that illustrates how urbanization, land use, and pollution contribute to ecological degradation, while also suggesting potential restoration pathways. To validate its applicability, the framework was applied to four major urban streams in Seoul, where indicator-based analysis and correlation mapping revealed meaningful linkages among urban drivers, biodiversity, air quality, and civic engagement. Ultimately, by integrating large-scale text mining with causal inference modeling, this study offers a transferable approach to support adaptive planning and evidence-based decision-making under the uncertainties posed by climate change. Full article

Digestate valorization is essential for sustainable waste management and circular economy strategies, yet large-scale adoption faces technical, economic, and environmental challenges. Beyond waste-to-energy conversion, digestate is a valuable soil amendment, enhancing soil structure and reducing reliance on synthetic fertilizers. However, its agronomic benefits depend on feedstock characteristics, treatment processes, and application methods. This study reviews digestate composition, treatment technologies, regulatory frameworks, and environmental impact assessment through Life Cycle Assessment. It analyzes the influence of functional unit selection and system boundary definitions on Life Cycle Assessment outcomes and the effects of feedstock selection, pretreatment, and post-processing on its environmental footprint and fertilization efficiency. A review of 28 JCR-indexed articles (2018–present) analyzed LCA studies on digestate, focusing on methodologies, system boundaries, and impact categories. The findings indicate that Life Cycle Assessment methodologies vary widely, complicating direct comparisons. Transportation distances, nutrient stability, and post-processing strategies significantly impact greenhouse gas emissions and nutrient retention efficiency. Techniques like solid–liquid separation and composting enhance digestate stability and agronomic performance. Digestate remains a promising alternative to synthetic fertilizers despite market uncertainty and regulatory inconsistencies. Standardized Life Cycle Assessment methodologies and policy incentives are needed to promote its adoption as a sustainable soil amendment within circular economy frameworks. Full article

This paper examines the changing role of emissions trading systems (ETSs) within the macro-financial framework of energy markets, emphasizing price dynamics and systemic spillovers. Utilizing monthly data from seven ETS jurisdictions spanning January 2021 to December 2024 (N = 287 observations after log transformation and first differencing), which includes four auction-based markets (United States, Canada, United Kingdom, South Korea), two secondary markets (China, New Zealand), and a government-set fixed-price scheme (Germany), this research estimates a panel vector autoregression (PVAR) employing a Common Correlated Effects (CCE) model and augments it with machine learning analysis utilizing XGBoost and explainable AI methodologies. The PVAR-CEE reveals numerous unexpected findings related to carbon markets: ETS returns exhibit persistence with an autoregressive coefficient of −0.137 after a four-month lag, while increasing inflation results in rising ETS after the same period. Furthermore, ETSs generate spillover effects in the real economy, as elevated ETSs today forecast a 0.125-point reduction in unemployment one month later and a 0.0173 increase in inflation after two months. Impulse response analysis indicates that exogenous shocks, including Brent oil prices, policy uncertainty, and financial volatility, are swiftly assimilated by ETS pricing, with effects dissipating completely within three to eight months. XGBoost models ascertain that policy uncertainty and Brent oil prices are the most significant predictors of one-month-ahead ETSs, whereas ESG factors are relevant only beyond certain thresholds and in conditions of low policy uncertainty. These findings establish ETS markets as dynamic transmitters of macroeconomic signals, influencing energy management, labor changes, and sustainable finance under carbon pricing frameworks. Full article

The exponential growth of lithium-ion battery consumption has amplified the urgency of identifying sustainable and economically viable recycling solutions. This study proposes an integrated decision-making framework based on the T-Spherical Fuzzy Einstein Interaction Aggregator DEMATEL-CoCoSo approach to comprehensively evaluate and rank battery recycling technologies under uncertainty. Ten key evaluation criteria—encompassing environmental, economic, and technological dimensions—were identified through expert consultation and literature synthesis. The T-Spherical Fuzzy DEMATEL method was first applied to analyze the causal interdependencies among criteria and determine their relative weights, revealing that environmental drivers such as energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, and waste generation exert the most systemic influence. Subsequently, six recycling alternatives were assessed and ranked using the CoCoSo method enhanced by Einstein-based aggregation, which captured the complex interactions present in the experts’ evaluations and assessments. Results indicate that Direct Recycling is the most favorable option, followed by the Hydrometallurgical and Bioleaching methods, while Pyrometallurgical Recycling ranked lowest due to its high energy demands and environmental burden. The proposed hybrid model effectively handles linguistic uncertainty, expert variability, and interdependent evaluation structures, offering a robust decision-support tool for sustainable technology selection in the circular battery economy. The framework is adaptable to other domains requiring structured expert-based evaluations under fuzzy environments. Full article

The pepper weevil Anthonomus eugenii is a devastating pest native to Central America that can cause severe damage to over 35 pepper varieties. Global trade in peppers has significantly increased the risk of its spread and expansion. Moreover, future climate change may add more uncertainty to its distribution, resulting in considerable ecological and economic damage globally. Therefore, we employed an ensemble model combining Random Forests and CLIMEX to predict the potential global distribution of A. eugenii in historical and future climate scenarios. The results indicated that the maximum temperature of the warmest month is an important variable affecting global A. eugenii distribution. Under the historical climate scenario, the potential global distribution of A. eugenii is concentrated in the Midwestern and Southern United States, Central America, the La Plata Plain, parts of the Brazilian Plateau, the Mediterranean and Black Sea coasts, sub-Saharan Africa, Northern and Southern China, Southern India, Indochina Peninsula, and coastal area in Eastern Australia. Under future climate scenarios, suitable areas in the Northern Hemisphere, including North America, Europe, and China, are projected to expand toward higher latitudes. In China, the number of highly suitable areas is expected to increase significantly, mainly in the south and north. Contrastingly, suitable areas in Central America, northern South America, the Brazilian Plateau, India, and the Indochina Peninsula will become less suitable. The total land area suitable for A. eugenii under historical and future low- and high-emission climate scenarios accounted for 73.12, 66.82, and 75.97% of the global land area (except for Antarctica), respectively. The high-suitability areas identified by both models decreased by 19.05 and 35.02% under low- and high-emission scenarios, respectively. Building on these findings, we inferred the future expansion trends of A. eugenii globally. Furthermore, we provide early warning of A. eugenii invasion and a scientific basis for its spread and outbreak, facilitating the development of effective quarantine and control measures. Full article

The high-proportion integration of renewable energy sources, represented by wind power and photovoltaics, into active distribution networks (ADNs) can effectively alleviate the pressure associated with advancing China’s dual-carbon goals. However, the high uncertainty in renewable energy output leads to increased system voltage fluctuations and localized voltage violations, posing safety challenges. Consequently, research on optimal dispatch for ADNs with a high penetration of renewable energy has become a current focal point. This paper provides a comprehensive review of research in this domain over the past decade. Initially, it analyzes the voltage impact patterns and control principles in distribution networks under varying levels of renewable energy penetration. Subsequently, it introduces optimization dispatch models for ADNs that focus on three key objectives: safety, economy, and low carbon emissions. Furthermore, addressing the challenge of solving non-convex and nonlinear models, the paper highlights model reformulation strategies such as semidefinite relaxation, second-order cone relaxation, and convex inner approximation methods, along with summarizing relevant intelligent solution algorithms. Additionally, in response to the high uncertainty of renewable energy output, it reviews stochastic optimization dispatch strategies for ADNs, encompassing single-stage, two-stage, and multi-stage approaches. Meanwhile, given the promising prospects of large-scale deep reinforcement learning models in the power sector, their applications in ADN optimization dispatch are also reviewed. Finally, the paper outlines potential future research directions for ADN optimization dispatch. Full article

Under the construction background of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, high-energy-consuming enterprises, represented by the electrolytic aluminum industry, have become important carriers for energy conservation and emission reduction. These enterprises are characterized by significant energy consumption and high carbon emissions, greatly impacting the economic and environmental benefits of regional power grids. Existing research often focuses on grid revenue, leaving high-energy-consuming enterprises in a passive regulatory position. To address this, this paper constructs an economic dispatch strategy for power grids that considers waste heat utilization in high-energy-consuming enterprises. A typical representative, electrolytic aluminum load and its waste heat utilization model, for the entire production process of high-energy-consuming loads, is established. Using a tiered carbon trading calculation formula, a low-carbon production scheme for high-energy-consuming enterprises is developed. On the grid side, considering local load levels, the uncertainty of wind power output, and the energy demands of aluminum production, a robust day-ahead economic dispatch model is established. Case analysis based on the modified IEEE-30 node system demonstrates that the proposed method balances economic efficiency and low-carbon performance while reducing the conservatism of traditional optimization approaches. Full article

In the context of achieving low-carbon goals, building low-carbon energy systems is a crucial development direction and implementation pathway. Renewable energy is favored because of its clean characteristics, but the access may have an impact on the power grid. Microgrid technology provides an effective solution to this problem. Uncertainty exists in single microgrids, so multiple microgrids are introduced to improve system stability and robustness. Electric carbon trading and profit redistribution among multiple microgrids have been challenges. To promote energy commensurability among microgrids, expand the types of energy interactions, and improve the utilization rate of renewable energy, this paper proposes a cooperative operation optimization model of multi-microgrids based on the green certificate and carbon trading mechanism to promote local energy consumption and a low carbon economy. First, this paper introduces a carbon capture system (CCS) and power-to-gas (P2G) device in the microgrid and constructs a cogeneration operation model coupled with a power-to-gas carbon capture system. On this basis, a low-carbon operation model for multi-energy microgrids is proposed by combining the local carbon trading market, the stepped carbon trading mechanism, and the green certificate trading mechanism. Secondly, this paper establishes a cooperative game model for multiple microgrid electricity carbon trading based on the Nash negotiation theory after constructing the single microgrid model. Finally, the ADMM method and the asymmetric energy mapping contribution function are used for the solution. The case study uses a typical 24 h period as an example for the calculation. Case study analysis shows that, compared with the independent operation mode of microgrids, the total benefits of the entire system increased by 38,296.1 yuan and carbon emissions were reduced by 30,535 kg through the coordinated operation of electricity–carbon coupling. The arithmetic example verifies that the method proposed in this paper can effectively improve the economic benefits of each microgrid and reduce carbon emissions. Full article

Atmospheric warming results in increase in temperatures for the mean, the coldest, and the hottest day of the year, season, or month. Global warming leads to a large increase in the atmospheric water vapor content and to changes in the hydrological cycle, which include an intensification of precipitation extremes. Using the GISS-E2.1 climate model, we present the future changes in the coldest and hottest daily temperatures as well as in extreme precipitation indices (under four main Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)). The increase in the wet-day precipitation ranges between 6% and 15% per 1 °C global surface temperature warming. Scaling of the 95th percentile versus the total precipitation showed that the sensitivity for the extreme precipitation to the warming is about 10 times stronger than that for the mean total precipitation. For six precipitation extreme indices (Total Precipitation, R95p, RX5day, R10mm, SDII, and CDD), the histograms of probability density functions become flatter, with reduced peaks and increased spread for the global mean compared to the historical period of 1850–2014. The mean values shift to the right end (toward larger precipitation and intensity). The higher the GHG emission of the SSP scenario, the more significant the increase in the index change. We found an intensification of precipitation over the globe but large uncertainties remained regionally and at different scales, especially for extremes. Over land, there is a strong increase in precipitation for the wettest day in all seasons over the mid and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. There is an enlargement of the drying patterns in the subtropics including over large regions around Mediterranean, southern Africa, and western Eurasia. For the continental averages, the reduction in total precipitation was found for South America, Europe, Africa, and Australia, and there is an increase in total precipitation over North America, Asia, and the continental Russian Arctic. Over the continental Russian Arctic, there is an increase in all precipitation extremes and a consistent decrease in CDD for all SSP scenarios, with the maximum increase of more than 90% for R95p and R10 mm observed under SSP5–8.5. Full article

Accurate methane emission estimates are essential for climate policy, yet current field methods often struggle with spatial constraints and source complexity. Ground-based mobile approaches frequently miss key plume features, introducing bias and uncertainty in emission rate estimates. This study addresses these limitations by using small unmanned aerial systems equipped with precision gas sensors to measure methane alongside co-released tracers. We tested whether arc-shaped flight paths and alternative ratio estimation methods could improve the accuracy of tracer-based emission quantification under real-world constraints. Controlled releases using ethane and nitrous oxide tracers showed that (1) arc flights provided stronger plume capture and higher correlation between methane and tracer concentrations than traditional flight paths; (2) the cumulative sum method yielded the lowest relative error (as low as 3.3%) under ideal mixing conditions; and (3) the arc flight pattern yielded the lowest relative error and uncertainty across all experimental configurations, demonstrating its robustness for quantifying methane emissions from downwind plume measurements. These findings demonstrate a practical and scalable approach to reducing uncertainty in methane quantification. The method is well-suited for challenging environments and lays the groundwork for future applications at the facility scale. Full article

The large-scale integration of new energy is an inevitable trend to achieve the low-carbon transformation of power systems. However, the strong randomness of wind power, photovoltaic power, and loads poses severe challenges to the safe and stable operation of systems. Existing studies demonstrate insufficient integration and handling of source-load bilateral uncertainties in wind–solar–fossil fuel storage complementary systems, resulting in difficulties in balancing economy and low-carbon performance in their energy storage configuration. To address this insufficiency, this study proposes an optimal energy storage configuration method considering source-load uncertainties. Firstly, a deterministic bi-level model is constructed: the upper level aims to minimize the comprehensive cost of the system to determine the energy storage capacity and power, and the lower level aims to minimize the system operation cost to solve the optimal scheduling scheme. Then, wind and solar output, as well as loads, are treated as fuzzy variables based on fuzzy chance constraints, and uncertainty constraints are transformed using clear equivalence class processing to establish a bi-level optimization model that considers uncertainties. A differential evolution algorithm and CPLEX are used for solving the upper and lower levels, respectively. Simulation verification in a certain region shows that the proposed method reduces comprehensive cost by 8.9%, operation cost by 10.3%, the curtailment rate of wind and solar energy by 8.92%, and carbon emissions by 3.51%, which significantly improves the economy and low-carbon performance of the system and provides a reference for the future planning and operation of energy systems. Full article

This study aims to estimate the carbon footprint and relative uncertainties for design components of conventional and geopolymer concrete. All the design components of alkaline-activated geopolymer concrete, such as fly ash, ground granulated blast furnace slag, sodium hydroxide (NaOH), sodium silicate (Na₂SiO₃), superplasticizer, and others, are assessed to reflect the actual scenarios of the carbon footprint. The conjugate application of the life cycle assessment (LCA) tool SimPro 9.4 and @RISK Monte Carlo simulation justifies the variations in carbon emissions rather than a specific determined value for concrete binders, precursors, and filler materials. A reduction of 43% in carbon emissions has been observed by replacing cement with alkali-activated binders. However, the associative uncertainties of chemical admixtures reveal that even a slight increase may cause significant environmental damage rather than its benefit. Pearson correlations of carbon footprint with three admixtures, namely sodium silicate (r = 0.80), sodium hydroxide (r = 0.52), and superplasticizer (r = 0.19), indicate that the shift from cement to alkaline activation needs additional precaution for excessive use. Therefore, a suitable method of manufacturing chemical activators utilizing renewable energy sources may ensure long-term sustainability. Full article

Heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems account for the largest share of energy consumption in European Union (EU) buildings, representing approximately 40% of the final energy use and contributing significantly to carbon emissions. Latent thermal energy storage (LTES) using phase change materials (PCMs) has emerged as a promising strategy to enhance HVAC efficiency. This review systematically examines the role of latent thermal energy storage using phase change materials (PCMs) in optimizing HVAC performance to align with EU climate targets, including the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) and the Energy Efficiency Directive (EED). By analyzing advancements in PCM-enhanced HVAC systems across residential and commercial sectors, this study identifies critical pathways for reducing energy demand, enhancing grid flexibility, and accelerating the transition to nearly zero-energy buildings (NZEBs). The review categorizes PCM technologies into organic, inorganic, and eutectic systems, evaluating their integration into thermal storage tanks, airside free cooling units, heat pumps, and building envelopes. Empirical data from case studies demonstrate consistent energy savings of 10–30% and peak load reductions of 20–50%, with Mediterranean climates achieving superior cooling load management through paraffin-based PCMs (melting range: 18–28 °C) compared to continental regions. Policy-driven initiatives, such as Germany’s renewable integration mandates for public buildings, are shown to amplify PCM adoption rates by 40% compared to regions lacking regulatory incentives. Despite these benefits, barriers persist, including fragmented EU standards, life cycle cost uncertainties, and insufficient training. This work bridges critical gaps between PCM research and EU policy implementation, offering a roadmap for scalable deployment. By contextualizing technical improvement within regulatory and economic landscapes, the review provides strategic recommendations to achieve the EU’s 2030 emissions reduction targets and 2050 climate neutrality goals. Full article