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Socioeconomic Modelling and Prediction with Machine Learning

A special issue of Sustainability (ISSN 2071-1050).

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (31 March 2023) | Viewed by 4180

Special Issue Editors


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Guest Editor
Higher Polytechnic School, University Autonoma of Madrid, 28049 Madrid, Spain
Interests: neural networks; sustainability; information theory; metric topology; stochastic dynamics; statistical mechanics; machine learning; big data
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

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Guest Editor
SI2Lab, Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias Aplicadas, Universidad de las Américas, Quito 170124, Ecuador
Interests: pattern recognition complex systems; complex networks and topology; data analytics

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

The socioeconomic context is formed by the sum of multidisciplinary relationships that occur between different areas. These include: (1) The biophysical environment, the resources, materials, and natural processes that enable life support and the products in the transformation processes; (2) the system of production and consumption, characterizing the industrial society and the economic and commercial transactions that make up modern civilization; and (3) the cultural environment, comprised of values and belief systems that are supposed to shape lifestyles and prioritize a series of social aspirations. In brief, socioeconomics is measured by sustainable results of human evolution.

On the other hand, Machine Learning (ML) comprises algorithms that automatically adapt their parameters to model data. Such models can classify, adjust or clusterize the samples in the data, through analysis of the data features. The model is built from a training set of the data, and after fitting this set it can be used to predict the behavior of new data. The learning capacity of ML is measured using a validation sample, which is a test set to check for the generalization of the fitting ability. ML is efficient when handling a large amount of data and complex structure or nonlinear spatial/temporal behavior, and is robust against noise.

ML has been applied to a wide range of fields, including hard sciences, where the data are usually in a numerical scale, but also in social sciences, wherein most of the data are either categorical or very heterogeneous for each sample, presenting many gaps in information. In this Special Issue, we propose a fusion of the techniques of ML with other forecasting methods usually applied to socioeconomics.

Nevertheless, even if the result of forecasting is relatively imprecise, the consequences of predicting a socioeconomic disaster—for instance, war, a climate change, a pandemic, or a volcanic eruption—through ML is highly beneficial. Hence, in this Special Issue we propose a fusion of the techniques of ML with other forecast methods usually applied to socioeconomics. The present issue of Sustainability is dedicated to publishing works which use ML models, including Bayesian classifier, Genetic Algorithms, Neural Networks, K-Near-Neighbors, Random Forest, Support Vector, etc., to forecast social phenomena, wherever it can be useful to the sustainable development of humanity.

a) Focus:

This Special Issue aims to communicate advances in the application of ML to socioeconomic complex phenomena in the context of sustainable development. It will help to connect the theoretical and technical scientific community working on data forecasting, to allow a cooperation between engineers, physicists, mathematicians, sociologists, economists, geologists, biologists, environmental scientists, and others concerned with human sustainable development.

b) Scope:

We welcome papers on any of the following subjects:

  • ML applied to forecast climate effects.
  • ML applied to housing, renting, and the real-estate market.
  • ML applied to the touristic impact problem.
  • ML applied to the migration flows.
  • ML applied to renewable energy resources.
  • Forecasting of the effects of pandemics in the sustainable development.
  • Forecasting of the role of finance market in world sustainability.
  • Forecasting of conflicts, war, and peace.
  • Forecasting of the relationships of seismic movements and sustainability.
  • Forecasting of human rights dynamic evolution.
  • Forecasting of deforestation and recycling.
  • Theoretical advances on Machine Learning models inspired in sustainability.

Prof. Dr. David Dominguez
Dr. Mario González-Rodríguez
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Sustainability is an international peer-reviewed open access semimonthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2400 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • machine learning
  • sustainable development
  • climate change
  • neural networks
  • house and rent
  • pandemics forecast
  • seismic forecast
  • war forecast
  • migration forecast

Published Papers (2 papers)

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Research

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17 pages, 1753 KiB  
Article
Forecasting Worldwide Temperature from Amazon Rainforest Deforestation Using a Long-Short Term Memory Model
by David Dominguez, Javier Barriuso Pastor, Odette Pantoja-Díaz and Mario González-Rodríguez
Sustainability 2023, 15(20), 15152; https://doi.org/10.3390/su152015152 - 23 Oct 2023
Viewed by 1706
Abstract
Biosphere–atmosphere interactions are a critical component of the Earth’s climate system. Many of these interactions are currently contributing to temperature increases and accelerating global warming. One of the main factors responsible for this is land use and land cover changes; in particular, this [...] Read more.
Biosphere–atmosphere interactions are a critical component of the Earth’s climate system. Many of these interactions are currently contributing to temperature increases and accelerating global warming. One of the main factors responsible for this is land use and land cover changes; in particular, this work models the interaction between Amazon rainforest deforestation and global temperatures. A Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network is proposed to forecast temperature trends, including mean, average minimum, and average maximum temperatures, in 20 major cities worldwide. The Amazon rainforest, often referred to as the Earth’s “lungs”, plays a pivotal role in regulating global climate patterns. Over the past two decades, this region has experienced significant deforestation, largely due to human activities. We hypothesize that the extent of deforestation in the Amazon can serve as a valuable proxy for understanding and predicting temperature changes in distant urban centers. Using a dataset that tracks cumulative deforestation from 2001 to 2021 across 297 municipalities in the Amazon rainforest, a multivariate time series model was developed to forecast temperature trends worldwide up to 2030. The input data reveal a variety of behaviors, including complex deforestation patterns. Similarly, the forecasted temperature data showcases diverse trends. While some cities are expected to exhibit a steady temperature increase, others may experience gradual changes, while some cities may undergo drastic and rapid temperature shifts. Our findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the far-reaching impacts of deforestation on global climate patterns and underscore the importance of preserving vital ecosystems like the Amazon rainforest. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Socioeconomic Modelling and Prediction with Machine Learning)
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Review

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23 pages, 1682 KiB  
Review
Transcending Time and Space: Survey Methods, Uncertainty, and Development in Human Migration Prediction
by Tongzheng Pu, Chongxing Huang, Jingjing Yang and Ming Huang
Sustainability 2023, 15(13), 10584; https://doi.org/10.3390/su151310584 - 5 Jul 2023
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1396
Abstract
As a fundamental, holistic, and strategic issue facing human society, human migration is a key factor affecting the development of countries and cities, given the constantly changing population numbers. The fuzziness of the spatiotemporal attributes of human migration limits the pool of open-source [...] Read more.
As a fundamental, holistic, and strategic issue facing human society, human migration is a key factor affecting the development of countries and cities, given the constantly changing population numbers. The fuzziness of the spatiotemporal attributes of human migration limits the pool of open-source data for human migration prediction, leading to a relative lag in human migration prediction algorithm research. This study expands the definition of human migration research, reviews the progress of research into human migration prediction, and classifies and compares human migration algorithms based on open-source data. It also explores the critical uncertainty factors restricting the development of human migration prediction. Based on the analysis, there is no “best” migration prediction model, and data are key to forecasting human migration. Social media’s popularity and its increase in data have enabled the application of artificial intelligence in population migration prediction, which has attracted the attention of researchers and government administrators. Future research will aim to incorporate uncertainty into the predictive analysis framework, and explore the characteristics of population migration behaviors and their interactions. The integration of machine-learning and traditional data-driven models will provide a breakthrough for this purpose. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Socioeconomic Modelling and Prediction with Machine Learning)
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