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Disaster and Emergency Management: Prediction, Evacuation and Recovery

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A special issue of Sustainability (ISSN 2071-1050). This special issue belongs to the section "Hazards and Sustainability".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (30 November 2023) | Viewed by 24264

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Special Issue Editors

Prof. Dr. Alexandre Berred

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Guest Editor

LMAH, Université Le Havre Normandie, Le Havre, France
Interests: extreme value statistics; machine learning; data mining; reliability

Prof. Dr. Cyrille Bertelle

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Guest Editor

LITIS, Université Le Havre Normandie, Le Havre, France
Interests: complex systems and networks; smart territories; swarm intelligence; blockchains for smart ports

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

The complexity of today's world is the result of rapid dynamics, the scale of evolution of which is sometimes difficult to predict. These rapid developments can turn into critical situations, leading to disasters.

This Special Issue aims to include contributions that will allow us to define a theoretical framework for understanding unforeseen or extreme dynamics in order to better anticipate them. In general, it is not a question of making deterministic predictions from a given situation but rather of estimating the possibility among others that an extreme phenomenon will occur. The objective is to understand the non-linearities of dynamics which are linked in cascades. Therefore, for this Special Issue, we expect the submission of contributions of different and complementary natures within a very open scope in terms of disciplinary skills.

On the one hand, at the level of prediction, extreme phenomena are, in our view, valuable analytical grids to model a disaster or an emergency situation. Current developments in machine learning technologies are now effective in the analysis of critical situations and thus the identification of rare phenomena. These theoretical fields remain open. Contributions regarding other theoretical bases are also welcome.

On the other hand, at the level of crisis management, the analysis of extreme phenomena based on dynamic systems is the first decision-making aid tool oriented towards targeting precise intervention points (theorized, for example, by the parameter sensitivity of the model). Simulations based on agents or crowd dynamics, particularly in the context of site evacuation, are alternative practical tools that allow us to understand the impacts of spatial system specificities, to, for example, produce decision support systems for intervention forces.

Another point of interest is the development of information systems dedicated to these emergency situations. Faced with unforeseen events that require rapid responses, panic can produce contradictory information which requires verification. Reliability and security are thus essential aspects for the development of these dedicated information systems.

Moreover, the concept of resilience, in particular the resilience of a territory facing possible extreme phenomena or disasters, is a very open and current subject in research under very rich multi-disciplinary facets. Submissions of contributions regarding resilience analysis and post-disaster management, allowing a territory to return to its old or new stable functioning, are also expected and welcome.

Prof. Dr. Alexandre Berred
Prof. Dr. Cyrille Bertelle
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

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Keywords

disaster
emergency and risk management
technological risks
natural hazards
prediction
evacuation
recovery
resilience
extreme phenomena
crowd simulation
dynamic systems
machine learning

Published Papers (9 papers)

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Research

28 pages, 5518 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Research on Psychological Crisis Intervention Strategies under Emergencies: An Analysis Based on the Four-Party Evolutionary Game

by Lei Chen, Hongxia Li, Fangyuan Tian, Can Xie and Lin Zhao

Sustainability 2023, 15(21), 15226; https://doi.org/10.3390/su152115226 - 24 Oct 2023

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1282

Abstract

The study of multi-subject psychological crisis intervention under emergencies is of great significance for maintaining the psychological states of public groups. A government’s strict regulation can stimulate social responsibility in medical institutions and communities, increase the probability that positive behavioral strategies might be chosen, and accelerate the implementation of psychological crisis intervention. In this paper, we constructed a four-party dynamic evolutionary game model containing the government, medical institutions, communities, and the public; analyzed the asymptotic stability conditions of the behavioral strategies of each player in the game; and explored the impact of the changes of the relevant key parameters in the model on the strategic choices of the players via use of Matlab 2020a simulation. The results of the study show that there are complex interactions and competitive relationships between the subjects of the game in emergencies, and that different intervention strategies can have different impacts on the behavior and outcomes of the subjects. The accountability of superiors increases the probability that there will be strict government regulation and enhances the robustness of medical institutions and communities to choose positive behaviors. A government’s decision to increase incentives and penalties may urge healthcare providers to provide active treatment and the community to provide safety and security, while also reducing the cost of public participation in supervision and reducing resource waste. By analyzing strategic choices made by subjects under a four-party game, a perfect countermeasure can be formulated to help the public form a positive psychological coping mechanism in the event of emergencies, and to provide support and help for their peers. Thus, the psychological health of the group can be better maintained, and extreme negative emotions and behaviors can be avoided. Finally, the simulation results demonstrate the rationality of the research conclusions and provide reference suggestions by which to improve the psychological crisis intervention system. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Disaster and Emergency Management: Prediction, Evacuation and Recovery)

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27 pages, 1015 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Modeling and Analysis of the Impact of Risk Culture on Human Behavior during a Catastrophic Event

by Valentina Lanza, Damienne Provitolo, Nathalie Verdière, Cyrille Bertelle, Edwige Dubos-Paillard, Oscar Navarro, Rodolphe Charrier, Irmand Mikiela, Moulay Aziz-Alaoui, Abdel Halim Boudoukha, Anne Tricot, Alexandra Schleyer-Lindenmann, Alexandre Berred, Sébastien Haule and Emmanuel Tric

Sustainability 2023, 15(14), 11063; https://doi.org/10.3390/su151411063 - 14 Jul 2023

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 912

Abstract

In a world more and more affected by natural and/or industrial disasters, it is essential to understand, analyze and control human behavior during such events. The work presented in this article is one of the results of a transdisciplinary collaboration between geographers, psychologists, mathematicians, computer scientists, operational staff and stakeholders in risk management. This collaboration made it possible to identify the diverse behavioral reactions that can occur during a disaster and to propose a categorization of these behavioral states and their transitions. These behavioral dynamics are described by the APC (Alert–Panic–Control) mathematical model, which integrates two key elements (among others) during disasters: cognition and social contagion. Several scenarios are developed, and a qualitative analysis of the model is conducted to better understand the role of crowd density and risk culture on behavioral dynamics. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Disaster and Emergency Management: Prediction, Evacuation and Recovery)

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23 pages, 1810 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Study of the Effect of Rescuers and the Use of a Massive Alarm in a Population in a Disaster Situation

by Nathalie Verdière, Edwige Dubos-Paillard, Valentina Lanza, Damienne Provitolo, Rodolphe Charrier, Cyrille Bertelle, Alexandre Berred, Anne Tricot and Moulay Aziz-Alaoui

Sustainability 2023, 15(12), 9474; https://doi.org/10.3390/su15129474 - 13 Jun 2023

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1011

Abstract

Faced with an ongoing or imminent danger, crisis managers must do their utmost to protect the exposed population and limit the extent of the disaster. More than during the pre- and post-disaster phases, time is of the essence. This temporal specificity of the disaster is essential compared to the risk. It requires a perfect coordination and a quick response in a context of uncertainty. It is important to intervene rapidly on the scene of the disaster while ensuring there are enough first responders. Crisis managers must also quickly alert the population at risk in order to favor the adoption of protective behaviors and limit inappropriate reactions, panic phenomena, and the spread of rumors. In France, in the event of a danger affecting the population, the intervention of law enforcement and emergency services is relatively rapid, even though there may be differences depending on the territories (urban or rural). On the contrary, the triggering of the alert by institutional actors (the mayor or the prefect, depending on the extent of the disaster) must follow a strict procedure that imposes longer delays and may limit or even neutralize its effectiveness. This article proposes a theoretical reflection on the effectiveness of these two types of intervention (relief and warning) with affected populations in the case of rapid kinetic or unpredictable events affecting people with a low risk culture. This reflection is based on the mathematical model “alert, panic, control” (APC) inspired by models used in epidemiology. It enables the modeling of behavior dynamics by distinguishing control and panic behaviors resulting from the difficulty or incapacity to regulate emotions. Several scenarios are proposed to identify the phases during which these two kinds of intervention have an optimal effect on the population by limiting panic phenomena. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Disaster and Emergency Management: Prediction, Evacuation and Recovery)

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24 pages, 6413 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Evolution Game and Simulation Analysis of Disturbance Emergency Disposal of In-Flight Cabin: China Civil Aviation Security Strategy Study

by Yu Wu, Shiting He, Qingsong Zhang, Jinxin Shi and Jiang Xie

Sustainability 2023, 15(11), 9029; https://doi.org/10.3390/su15119029 - 2 Jun 2023

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1047

Abstract

The disturbance of disruptive passengers in the cabin seriously affects aviation security in China. Reducing the occurrence of disturbances in the cabin is an inevitable choice to strengthen the security of civil aviation in China and improve the emergency disposal of airlines. Therefore, this paper investigates the strength of government support, the benefits of cooperation and the punishment of disposers, and uses the event tree method to analyze the relevant subjects affecting the consequences of cabin disruptions. To this end, a cabin disturbance emergency management game model comprised of regulatory authority, airline security and disruptive passengers was then established. The results of the game playing and simulation highlight the inherent relationships in emergency management in China’s civil aviation. First, the choice of behavior of the regulatory authority and disruptive passengers are mainly influenced by the strategy of airline security. Second, the strength of support from the regulatory authority determines whether the airline security can dispose of the passengers successfully. Third, the disruptive inclination of disruptive passengers is directly influenced by the intensity of punishment by airport police. Finally, an empirical analysis and simulation is conducted with the example of using an open flame or smoking in the cabin. This study provides new ideas for enhancing aviation security and improving emergency management. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Disaster and Emergency Management: Prediction, Evacuation and Recovery)

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17 pages, 8497 KiB

Open AccessArticle

A Communication, Management and Tracking Mobile Application for Enhancing Earthquake Preparedness and Situational Awareness in the Event of an Earthquake

by Pinar Kirci, Davut Arslan and Sureyya Fatih Dincer

Sustainability 2023, 15(2), 970; https://doi.org/10.3390/su15020970 - 5 Jan 2023

Cited by 7 | Viewed by 2605

Abstract

The presented DepApp is an application that provides information about the intensity, time and whereabouts of a recent earthquake. In addition, the presented application is a mobile application that contains emergency phone numbers and can provide general information about an earthquake which people can benefit from before and after the earthquake. With the presented application, people will be able to easily access information about earthquakes. Moreover, safe areas in which to shelter after an earthquake are offered to the user. Information about an earthquake kit is given to user in the application. The earthquake kit should be prepared before the earthquake. The application also includes emergency sounds that can be used in the event of an earthquake. A survey system is designed to determine the intensity of the earthquake as it is felt by the users. After the earthquake, the application presents the intensity, time, and location of the earthquake to the user. Thus, with this application, users will be more knowledgeable and prepared for an earthquake. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Disaster and Emergency Management: Prediction, Evacuation and Recovery)

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21 pages, 2524 KiB

Open AccessArticle

“The Big One” Earthquake Preparedness Assessment among Younger Filipinos Using a Random Forest Classifier and an Artificial Neural Network

by Ardvin Kester S. Ong, Ferani Eva Zulvia and Yogi Tri Prasetyo

Sustainability 2023, 15(1), 679; https://doi.org/10.3390/su15010679 - 30 Dec 2022

Cited by 5 | Viewed by 10481

Abstract

Exploring the intention to prepare for mitigation among Filipinos should be considered as the Philippines is a country prone to natural calamities. With frequent earthquakes occurring in the country, “The Big One” has been predicted to damage the livelihood and infrastructure of the capital and surrounding cities. This study aimed to predict the intention to prepare for mitigation (IP) of “The Big One” based on several features using a machine learning algorithm ensemble. This study applied a decision tree, a random forest classifier, and artificial neural network algorithms to classify affecting factors. Data were collected using convenience sampling through a self-administered questionnaire with 683 valid responses. The results of this study and the proposed machine learning-based prediction model could be applied to predict the intention of younger Filipinos to prepare. The experimental results also revealed that the decision tree and the decision tree with random forest classifier showed understanding, perceived vulnerability, and perceived severity as factors highly affecting the IP of “The Big One”. The results of this study could be considered by the government to promote policies and guidelines to enhance the people’s IP for natural disasters. The algorithm could also be utilized and applied to determine factors affecting IP for other natural disasters, even in other countries. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Disaster and Emergency Management: Prediction, Evacuation and Recovery)

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29 pages, 2993 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Organisational Resilience during COVID-19 Times: A Bibliometric Literature Review

by Thea Paeffgen

Sustainability 2023, 15(1), 367; https://doi.org/10.3390/su15010367 - 26 Dec 2022

Cited by 3 | Viewed by 3522

Abstract

Since the start of the pandemic, organisations have recognised the importance of resilience strategies and they have been trying to enhance them for future crises. COVID-19 has profoundly affected the way that organisations operate and react to recent events. The lessons from this pandemic for future adverse events are yet to be understood. This study aims to identify the most prominent issues and gaps in the literature regarding organisational resilience in the context of COVID-19. To achieve this, this paper is conducting a bibliometric literature review of 185 articles discussing organisational resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic, from 2019 to the beginning of 2022. This paper identifies six main topic clusters: (1) entrepreneurial, tourism, and emergency responses; (2) world environment, disruptions, and organisations; (3) employees and mediation; (4) firms and opportunities; (5) capabilities and digitalisation; and (6) leadership during uncertain times. The main contribution of this study is an up-to-date identification of research concerning organisational resilience in times of crisis, particularly research conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic. As COVID-19 is a unique crisis, this pandemic, as well as the timely results of this paper, stand out. In light of this, I believe one can develop innovative, fundamental new directions for resilience literature in the future. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Disaster and Emergency Management: Prediction, Evacuation and Recovery)

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13 pages, 312 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Employee Adversarial Growth Driven by Organizational Learning in the Chinese Pharmaceutical Industry

by Yanwei Sun, Dazhuo Mo and Ting Nie

Sustainability 2022, 14(24), 16946; https://doi.org/10.3390/su142416946 - 17 Dec 2022

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1206

Abstract

The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has brought unprecedented challenges to pharmaceutical companies and their employees. Over the past three years, intensive antipandemic tasks have placed high demands on the physical and mental strength of pharmacy professionals. By using a questionnaire, data were collected from 391 technicians in pharmaceutical companies from southern coastal areas of China. The study examined the influence mechanism of organizational learning on employee adversarial growth with the moderating effect of resilience. Our analysis shows that adaptive and experimental learning promote employee adversarial growth by enhancing individual role-breadth self-efficacy. Moreover, resilience reinforces the positive effect of organizational learning on role-breadth self-efficacy. The results imply that in a complex and changing environment, experimental learning has greater value for organizations to respond to crises and enables employees to promote personal growth. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Disaster and Emergency Management: Prediction, Evacuation and Recovery)

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19 pages, 8410 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Knowledge Trajectories Detection and Prediction of Modern Emergency Management in China Based on Topic Mining from Massive Literature Text

by Feng Wu, Yue Tang, Chaoran Lin, Yanwei Zhang and Wanqiang Xu

Sustainability 2022, 14(24), 16675; https://doi.org/10.3390/su142416675 - 13 Dec 2022

Viewed by 1172

Abstract

China has witnessed dramatic advances in emergency management in the past two decades, while the knowledge trajectories and future trends of related research are still unclear. This study takes the published articles in China National Knowledge Infrastructure as a data sample and introduces text mining and machine learning methods, namely Latent Dirichlet Allocation combined with the Hidden Markov Model, to detect and predict the knowledge trajectories of Chinese modern emergency management research. We analyzed 5180 articles, equivalent to approximately 1,110,000 Chinese characters, from 2003 to 2021, and mined 35 latent research topics. By labeling the topics manually and analyzing the evolutionary hotspots, confusion and transition features, and transition direction and network of the topics, we explored the knowledge trajectories of emergency management research in China. By training the HMM model, we predicted the research trends in the next five years. The main conclusions are: a mapping relationship exists between the hotspots of the published articles and the main events of emergency management in China; most emergency management research topics could confuse and transfer with others in the evolution process, and seven significant paths exist in the transition network. The research topics in the following years will be more detailed and concerned with the intellectual needs of modernization. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Disaster and Emergency Management: Prediction, Evacuation and Recovery)

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