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Econometric Analysis of Pandemics and Sustainability

A special issue of Sustainability (ISSN 2071-1050). This special issue belongs to the section "Economic and Business Aspects of Sustainability".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (1 October 2021) | Viewed by 23021

Special Issue Editors

Department of Finance, Mike Ilitch School of Business, Wayne State University, Detroit, MI 48202, USA
Interests: applied econometrics and statistics; empirical finance; international finance; derivatives
Centre for Econometrics and Applied Research, Ibadan, Nigeria
Interests: macro-econometric modelling and forecasting with special interests in energy economics; macroeconomics; financial economics and climate risks
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

The recent outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has affected all aspects of human life and altered living as we know it (Goosling et al., 2020). Coping in the face of this pandemic may mean humanity has to adapt to a “new normal”. Charting the course into this new normal requires a good understanding of how the current pandemic has affected our way of life (Baldwin and Weder di Mauro, 2020). Throughout human history, nothing has killed more human beings than infectious diseases, and the outbreak of COVID-19 has further exposed the vulnerability of humans in the face of pandemics (Walsh, 2020). For example, there have been 528,204 deaths out of 11,125,245 confirmed cases of coronavirus globally as of 12:59 PM CEST, 5 July, 2020 (WHO, 2020). The continued threat of COVID-19 has led to a considerable surge in the amount of information available on pandemics and epidemics in the last six months. The need to subject this newly available load of information to a variety of econometric testing to improve our understanding of disease outbreaks cannot be overemphasized. Thus, a thorough analysis of the current pandemic will determine how soon the global economic and financial system is likely to recover and help in preparing for future outbreaks. While some work has been done on how to mitigate the spread of the pandemic and its implication for the global economy (see Basheti et al., 2020; Hiscott et al., 2020; Lalmuanawma, Hussain and Chhakchhuak 2020), there is still much to be desired in terms of the overall sustainability of the universe (see Meehan et al., 2020, for example). For instance, we need to understand the effect of the pandemic on climate change and environmental pollution, and how the newly adopted habits like social distancing and stay-at-home orders impact the global supply chain, industrial production, demography, and the ecosystem, among others. Hence, this Special Issue aims to discuss these questions and the role of econometrics in providing suitable answers.

The purpose of this Special Issue is therefore to provide a platform for researchers to examine the challenges posed by pandemics to humanity and suggest ways of overcoming them. The issue welcomes original research articles, case studies, reviews, and critical perspectives in various aspects that establish the link between pandemics and sustainability using econometric tools.

Papers of interest, rigorous in econometric analyses, include but are not limited to those that cover the following areas:

  • Econometric analysis of pandemics with applications to sustainability issues;
  • Pandemics and sustainable economic development;
  • Pandemics and the global financial system;
  • Pandemics and climate change;
  • Socioeconomic impacts of pandemics;
  • Pandemics and supply chain management;
  • Pandemics and global demography;
  • Modeling the short- and long-term economic impact of pandemics.

References:

  1. Baldwin, R., & Weder di Mauro, B. (2020). Introduction. In R. Baldwin & B. Weder di Mauro (Eds.), Economics in the time of COVID-19 (pp. 1–30). CEPR Press.
  2. Basheti, I. A., Nassar, R., Barakat, M., Alqudah, R., Abufarha, R., Muqatash, T. and Saini, B. (2020). Pharmacists’ readiness to deal with the coronavirus pandemic: Assessing awareness and perception of roles. Research in Social and Administrative Pharmacy. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1551741120304186
  3. Gössling, S. Scott, D. & Hall, C. M. (2020): Pandemics, tourism and global change: a rapid       assessment of COVID-19. Journal of Sustainable Tourism https://doi.org/10.1080/09669582.2020.1758708
  4. Hiscott, J., Alexandridi, M., Muscolini, M., Tassone, E., Palermo, E., Soultsioti, M. and Zevini, A. (2020). The Global Impact of the Coronavirus Pandemic. Cytokine & Growth Factor Reviews, 53, Pages 1-9.
  5. Lalmuanawma, S., Hussain, J. and Chhakchhuak, L. (2020). Applications of Machine Learning             and Artificial Intelligence for Covid-19 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic: A review. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 139, 110059.
  6. Walsh, B. (2020). Covid 19: history of pandemics. Retrieved from bbc.com/future/article/20200325-Covid-19-the-history-of-pandemics WHO (2020). WHO Coronavirus Disease COVID-19 Dashboard

Prof. Mbodja Mougoué
Prof. Afees A. Salisu
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

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Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Sustainability is an international peer-reviewed open access semimonthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2400 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • pandemics
  • coronaviruses
  • COVID-19
  • sustainability
  • sustainable development
  • financial market
  • supply chain management
  • environmental pollution
  • big data
  • climate change
  • global demography
  • perception
  • applied econometrics

Published Papers (5 papers)

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Research

17 pages, 991 KiB  
Article
The Informal Sector Facing COVID-19: The Case of Cameroon
by Faustine Kede Ndouna, Roger Tsafack Nanfosso, Jean Aristide Biloa Essimi and Laurent-Fabrice Ambassa
Sustainability 2021, 13(23), 13269; https://doi.org/10.3390/su132313269 - 30 Nov 2021
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2825
Abstract
This study aims to analyze the effects of COVID-19 on actors in the informal economy in Cameroon. To analyze the effects of the COVID-19 crisis on actors in the informal economy, we use secondary data from the National Institute of Statistics (NIS). These [...] Read more.
This study aims to analyze the effects of COVID-19 on actors in the informal economy in Cameroon. To analyze the effects of the COVID-19 crisis on actors in the informal economy, we use secondary data from the National Institute of Statistics (NIS). These data come from a survey of 1310 households. We performed data analysis using comparative methods and a labor market participation model that considers changes in people’s behavior towards health risks in order to explore and compare empirical results with earlier studies. From this analysis, it was revealed that job losses are more important in the informal sector (and, in particular, among men). We note that the absence of wearing a mask decreases the chances of having an informal job and of being suspended from one’s job during the crisis. Likewise, time restrictions that are not appreciated by workers will push actors more towards the informal sector. These results lead to recommendations that contribute towards providing support or direct support to informal workers in the sector. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Econometric Analysis of Pandemics and Sustainability)
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12 pages, 997 KiB  
Article
Market Openness and Its Relationship to Connecting Markets Due to COVID-19
by Karime Chahuán-Jiménez, Rolando Rubilar-Torrealba and Hanns de la Fuente-Mella
Sustainability 2021, 13(19), 10964; https://doi.org/10.3390/su131910964 - 02 Oct 2021
Cited by 3 | Viewed by 1849
Abstract
In this research, statistical models were formulated to study the effect of the health crisis arising from COVID-19 in economic markets. Economic markets experience economic crises irrespective of effects corresponding to financial contagion. This investigation was based on a mixed linear regression model [...] Read more.
In this research, statistical models were formulated to study the effect of the health crisis arising from COVID-19 in economic markets. Economic markets experience economic crises irrespective of effects corresponding to financial contagion. This investigation was based on a mixed linear regression model that contains both fixed and random effects for the estimation of parameters and a mixed linear regression model corresponding to the generalisation of a linear model using the incorporation of random deviations and used data on the evolution of the international trade of a group of 42 countries, in order to quantify the effect that COVID-19 has had on their trade relationships and considering the average state of trade relationships before the global pandemic was declared and its subsequent effects. To measure, quantify and model the effect of COVID-19 on trade relationships, three main indicators were used: imports, exports and the sum of imports and exports, using six model specifications for the variation in foreign trade as response variables. The results suggest that trade openness, measured through the trade variable, should be modelled with a mixed model, while imports and exports can be modelled with an ordinary linear regression model. The trade relationship between countries with greater economic openness (using imports and exports as a trade variable) has a higher correlation with the country’s health index and its effect on the financial market through its main trading index; the same is true for country risk. However, regarding the association with OECD membership, the relations are only with imports. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Econometric Analysis of Pandemics and Sustainability)
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22 pages, 2428 KiB  
Article
Socioeconomic Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic: Exploring Uncertainty in the Forecast of the Romanian Unemployment Rate for the Period 2020–2023
by Adriana AnaMaria Davidescu, Simona-Andreea Apostu and Liviu Adrian Stoica
Sustainability 2021, 13(13), 7078; https://doi.org/10.3390/su13137078 - 23 Jun 2021
Cited by 18 | Viewed by 4289
Abstract
During the health crisis, it is vital to protect not only the critical sectors of the economy, the assets, technology, and infrastructure, but first and foremost, it is fundamental to protect jobs and workers. The current COVID-19 pandemic has had a strong impact [...] Read more.
During the health crisis, it is vital to protect not only the critical sectors of the economy, the assets, technology, and infrastructure, but first and foremost, it is fundamental to protect jobs and workers. The current COVID-19 pandemic has had a strong impact on the labor market from three main perspectives: number of jobs (through unemployment and underemployment), quality of work (through wages, or access to social protection), and through the effects on specific groups, with a higher degree of vulnerability to unfavorable labor market outcomes. The measures aiming to reduce economic activity and social contacts lead to a reduction of labor demand and implicitly to the increase of the unemployment rate. In this context, it becomes even more relevant to be able to monitor the unemployment rate, providing relevant forecasts that include the effects of market shocks. Thus, our paper aims to forecast the unemployment rate for the period 2020–2023 using the Box-Jenkins methodology based on ARIMA models, exploring also the uncertainty based on fan charts. Although the baseline forecast offers valuable information, a good understanding of risks and uncertainties related to this forecast is equally important. The empirical results highlighted an ascending trend for unemployment rate during 2020, followed by a slow and continuous decrease until the end of 2023 with a high probability for the forecast to be above the central projection. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Econometric Analysis of Pandemics and Sustainability)
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18 pages, 3913 KiB  
Article
A New Index for Measuring Uncertainty Due to the COVID-19 Pandemic
by Afees A. Salisu, Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna, Tirimisiyu F. Oloko and Idris A. Adediran
Sustainability 2021, 13(6), 3212; https://doi.org/10.3390/su13063212 - 15 Mar 2021
Cited by 22 | Viewed by 2310
Abstract
This study contributes to the emerging literature offering alternative measures of uncertainty due to the COVID-19 pandemic. We combine both news-and macro-based trends to construct an index. The former involves the use of Google trends with plausible variants of words used to capture [...] Read more.
This study contributes to the emerging literature offering alternative measures of uncertainty due to the COVID-19 pandemic. We combine both news-and macro-based trends to construct an index. The former involves the use of Google trends with plausible variants of words used to capture the pandemic, which are combined using principal components analysis to develop a news-based index. For the macro-based index, we identify global factors such as oil price, stock price, Dollar index, commodity index and gold price, and thereafter we obtain the macro-based uncertainty using variants of stochastic volatility models estimated with Bayesian techniques and using a dynamic factor model. Consequently, the new (composite) index is constructed by combining the news- and macro-based indexes using principal components analysis. Our empirical applications of the index to the stock return predictability of the countries hit worst by the pandemic confirm the superiority of the composite index over the existing news-based index in both the in-sample and out-of-sample forecast horizons. Our results are also robust to forecast horizons and competing model choices. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Econometric Analysis of Pandemics and Sustainability)
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15 pages, 314 KiB  
Article
Government Effectiveness and the COVID-19 Pandemic
by Carolyn Chisadza, Matthew Clance and Rangan Gupta
Sustainability 2021, 13(6), 3042; https://doi.org/10.3390/su13063042 - 10 Mar 2021
Cited by 26 | Viewed by 10436
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic threatens to derail progress achieved in sustainable development. This study investigates the effectiveness of government policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, namely the number of deaths. Using the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) dataset for a global sample of [...] Read more.
The COVID-19 pandemic threatens to derail progress achieved in sustainable development. This study investigates the effectiveness of government policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, namely the number of deaths. Using the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) dataset for a global sample of countries between March and September 2020, we find a non-linear association between government response indices and the number of deaths. Less stringent interventions increase the number of deaths, whereas more severe responses to the pandemic can lower fatalities. The outcomes are similar for a sample of countries disaggregated by regions. These findings can be informative for policymakers in their efforts to mitigate the spread of the virus and save lives. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Econometric Analysis of Pandemics and Sustainability)
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