Extreme Precipitation and Floods under a Changing Climate

A special issue of Hydrology (ISSN 2306-5338). This special issue belongs to the section "Hydrology–Climate Interactions".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (31 March 2021) | Viewed by 8313

Special Issue Editors

Meteoceanics Interdisciplinary Centre for Complex System Science; Vienna, Austria, and Lisbon, Portugal
Interests: hydro-climatology; hydrologic processes; water resources; geo-ecology; big data analytics; climate–ecosystem–society interactions; extreme events and natural hazards; flood regime changes; climate change and sustainable development
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Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Leninskie Gory 1, GSP 1, 119991, Russia
Interests: hydrological hazards; water regime; climate impact on hydrological cycle; river runoff; hydroinformatics; hydrogrpah separation ;river nourishment and GIS in hydrology

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Guest Editor
Meteoceanics Institute for Complex System Science, Washington, DC 20004, USA
Interests: physics of complex systems; information theory; nonlinear statistical physics; nonlinear dynamics; nonlinear statistics; fluid dynamical systems; climate dynamics; earth system dynamics; nonlinear geophysics; atmospheric physics
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Climate change is known to significantly influence the structure and function of the hydrologic cycle along with its interplay with the overall earth system dynamics. In the present special issue we focus on why and how a changing climate affects extreme precipitation and flood regimes, extremes and associated risks, over a wide range of spatiotemporal scales.

Studies are welcome on methodologically and/or applied, physical principle based and/or data analysis-based research from local to global scales.

Of special interest is also the development and implementation of novel statistical, dynamic and hybrid methodologies for spatiotemporal analysis, modelling and decision support regarding the detection, attribution and prediction of extreme precipitation and/or floods relative to changes in climate-related controls. These include for example changes in ocean-atmospheric circulation and thermodynamics, changes in land-atmosphere interactions and energy budget, changes in hydrological extremes, statistical, dynamical and hybrid risk assessment for precipitation and flood extremes under climatic changes.

Dr. Julia Hall
Prof. Dr. Rui A. P. Perdigão
Dr. Maria Kireeva
Guest Editors

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Keywords

  • Precipitation
  • Floods
  • Climatic Change
  • Extremes
  • Detection
  • Attribution
  • Prediction, Risk
  • Spatiotemporal Analysis
  • Modelling
  • Decision Support

Published Papers (2 papers)

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24 pages, 6080 KiB  
Article
Modeling of Extreme Hydrological Events in the Baksan River Basin, the Central Caucasus, Russia
by Ekaterina D. Kornilova, Inna N. Krylenko, Ekaterina P. Rets, Yuri G. Motovilov, Evgeniy M. Bogachenko, Ivan V. Krylenko and Dmitry A. Petrakov
Hydrology 2021, 8(1), 24; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology8010024 - 2 Feb 2021
Cited by 14 | Viewed by 3431
Abstract
High mountain areas are prone to extreme hydrological events, and their study is especially important in the context of ongoing intensive deglaciation. In this research, a model “chain” consisting of a hydrodynamic model and a runoff formation model is adopted to simulate a [...] Read more.
High mountain areas are prone to extreme hydrological events, and their study is especially important in the context of ongoing intensive deglaciation. In this research, a model “chain” consisting of a hydrodynamic model and a runoff formation model is adopted to simulate a glacier lake outburst flood (GLOF) from Bashkara Lake (the Central Caucasus, Russia) and its effect on downstream. In addition to an actual GLOF event that occurred on 1 September 2017 and led to casualties and significant destruction in the Adylsu and Baksan Rivers valleys, possible scenarios for the re-outburst of the lake are considered. The hydrographs of the outburst and the downstream movement of the flood wave along the Adylsu River valley are estimated using STREAM_2D two-dimensional hydrodynamic model. The water discharges in the entire river network of the Baksan River are assessed using the ECOMAG (ECOlogical Model for Applied Geophysics) runoff formation model. The output flood hydrograph from the hydrodynamic model is set as additional input into the Baksan River runoff formation model in the upper reaches of the Adylsu River. As a result of the simulations, estimates for the contribution of GLOFs and precipitation to an increase in peak discharge along the Baksan River were obtained. The actual outburst flood contributed 45% and precipitation 30% to the peak flow in the Baksan River at the mouth of the Adylsu River (10 km from the outburst site). In Tyrnyauz (40 km from the outburst site), the contributions of the outburst flood and precipitation were equal and, in Zayukovo (70 km from the outburst site), the outburst flood contributed only 20% to the peak flow, whereas precipitation contributed 44%. Similar calculations were made for future potential re-outburst flood, taking into account climatic changes with an increase in air temperatures of 2 °C, an increase in precipitation of 10% in winter and a decrease of 10% in summer. The maximum discharge of the re-outburst flood in the Adylsu River mouth, according to model estimations, will be approximately three times less than the discharge of the actual outburst on 1 September 2017 and can contribute up to 18% of the peak discharge in the Baksan River at the confluence. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Precipitation and Floods under a Changing Climate)
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23 pages, 4177 KiB  
Article
Urban Floods: Linking the Overloading of a Storm Water Sewer System to Precipitation Parameters
by Ivan Vorobevskii, Firas Al Janabi, Fabian Schneebeck, Jose Bellera and Peter Krebs
Hydrology 2020, 7(2), 35; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology7020035 - 24 Jun 2020
Cited by 14 | Viewed by 3945
Abstract
The lack and inefficiency of urban drainage systems, as well as extreme precipitation, can lead to system overloading and, therefore, an urban pluvial flood. The study brings insights into this phenomenon from the perspective of the statistical relationship between precipitation and flooding parameters. [...] Read more.
The lack and inefficiency of urban drainage systems, as well as extreme precipitation, can lead to system overloading and, therefore, an urban pluvial flood. The study brings insights into this phenomenon from the perspective of the statistical relationship between precipitation and flooding parameters. The paper investigates the possibility of predicting sewer overloading based on the characteristics of the upcoming rain event using the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) and statistical methods. Additionally, it examines the influence of precipitation resolution on the model sensitivity regarding floods. The study is set in a small urban catchment in Dresden (Germany) with a separated stormwater sewer system (SWSS). The flood-event-based calibrated model runs with observed and designed heavy rain events of various sums, durations, and intensities. Afterward, the analysis focuses on precipitation and model overloading parameters (total flood volume, maximum flooding time and flow rate, and maximum nodal water depth) with pairwise correlation and multi-linear regression (MLR). The results indicate that it is possible to define a certain threshold (or range) for a few precipitation characteristics, which could lead to an urban flood, and fitting MLR can noticeably improve the predictability of the SWSS overloading parameters. The study concludes that design and observed rain events should be considered separately and that the resolution of the precipitation data (1/5/10 min) does not play a significant role in SWSS overloading. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Precipitation and Floods under a Changing Climate)
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