Runoff Modelling under Climate Change

A special issue of Hydrology (ISSN 2306-5338). This special issue belongs to the section "Hydrology–Climate Interactions".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 31 August 2025 | Viewed by 9099

Special Issue Editors


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Guest Editor
Department of Environmental Engineering, University of Calabria, 87036 Rende, Italy
Interests: runoff modeling; shallow water equations; urban flood hazard; border irrigation; overland flow
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Guest Editor
Department of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences, University of Milan, Via Celoria 2, 20133 Milan, Italy
Interests: agriculture water management; shallow water equations; hydraulic analysis; smart irrigation system; water conservation

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Guest Editor
Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Via della Libertà, 12-30175 Venice, Italy
Interests: water resources; hydroinformatics
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Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Runoff modeling under climate change involves predicting changes in the amount and timing of water flows in watersheds due to the impacts of climate change. It plays a crucial role in water resource management, flood forecasting, agricultural management, and the assessment of potential impacts on ecosystems and human populations. The goal of this Special Issue is to collect papers (original research articles and review papers) which provide insights on this topic. This Special Issue will welcome manuscripts that link the following themes:

  • Data collection: Gathering historical climate and hydrological data, including precipitation, temperature, evapotranspiration, and streamflow records. This information is necessary for model calibration and validation;
  • Climate change scenarios: Selecting climate change scenarios based on projections from global climate models (GCMs) or regional climate models (RCMs). These scenarios provide information on future changes in temperature and precipitation patterns;
  • Hydrological model selection: Choosing an appropriate hydrological model that represents watershed physical processes, including rainfall–runoff relationships, infiltration, evapotranspiration, and flow routing. In this context, applications of artificial intelligence (AI) or machine learning (ML) models are more and more frequent;
  • Model calibration: Calibrating hydrological models using historical data to ensure that it accurately represents observed streamflow patterns. This step involves adjusting model parameters to minimize the differences between simulated and observed streamflows;
  • Climate change impact assessment: Applying the selected climate change scenarios to the calibrated hydrological model to simulate future runoff. This involves incorporating the projected changes in temperature and precipitation into the model inputs;
  • Uncertainty analysis: Assessing the uncertainty associated with climate change projections and hydrological model outputs. Uncertainties arise from various sources, including the choice in climate models, emission scenarios, and inherent uncertainties in hydrological modeling;
  • Model validation: Validating hydrological models by comparing simulated runoff under climate change scenarios with observed streamflow data for a specific period. This step helps evaluate the model performance and reliability in representing future runoff conditions;
  • Impact assessment: Analyzing the modeled runoff data to understand the potential impacts of climate change on water resources. This information can guide adaptation strategies and water management decisions in various fields, such as civil protection and agriculture water management;
  • Communicating results: Effective communication of the findings can help raise awareness and facilitate informed decisionmaking regarding water resource management under climate change.

We look forward to receiving your original research articles and reviews.

Dr. Carmelina Costanzo
Dr. Fabiola Gangi
Dr. Majid Niazkar
Guest Editors

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Keywords

  • climate change
  • runoff modeling
  • urban flood hazard
  • agriculture water management
  • hydrological modeling
  • machine learning

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Published Papers (5 papers)

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Research

23 pages, 4334 KiB  
Article
Evaluation and Adjustment of Historical Hydroclimate Data: Improving the Representation of Current Hydroclimatic Conditions in Key California Watersheds
by Andrew Schwarz, Z. Q. Richard Chen, Alejandro Perez and Minxue He
Hydrology 2025, 12(2), 22; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology12020022 - 22 Jan 2025
Viewed by 636
Abstract
The assumption of stationarity in historical hydroclimatic data, fundamental to traditional water resource planning models, is increasingly challenged by the impacts of climate change. This discrepancy can lead to inaccurate model outputs and misinformed management decisions. This study addresses this challenge by developing [...] Read more.
The assumption of stationarity in historical hydroclimatic data, fundamental to traditional water resource planning models, is increasingly challenged by the impacts of climate change. This discrepancy can lead to inaccurate model outputs and misinformed management decisions. This study addresses this challenge by developing a novel monthly data adjustment approach, the Runoff Curve Year–Type–Monthly (RC-YTM) method. The application of this method is exemplified at five key California watersheds. The RC-YTM method accounts for the increasing variability and shifts in seasonal runoff timing observed in the historical data (1922–2021), aligning it with the contemporary climate conditions represented by the period from 1992 to 2021 at the study watersheds. This method adjusts both annual and monthly streamflow values using a combination of precipitation–runoff relationships, quantile mapping, and water year classification. The adjusted data, reflecting current climatic conditions more accurately than the raw historical data, serve as valuable inputs for operational water resource planning models like CalSim3, commonly used in California for water management. This approach, demonstrably effective in capturing the observed climate change impacts on streamflow at monthly timesteps, enhances the reliability of model simulations representing contemporary conditions, which can lead to better-informed decision-making in water management, infrastructure investment, drought and flood risk assessment, and adaptation strategies. While focused on specific California watersheds, this study’s findings and the adaptable RC-YTM method hold significant implications for water resource management in other regions facing similar hydroclimatic challenges in a changing climate. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Runoff Modelling under Climate Change)
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19 pages, 11754 KiB  
Article
Assessing the Impacts of Climatic and Water Management Scenarios in a Small Mountainous Greek River
by Angeliki Mentzafou, Anastasios Papadopoulos and Elias Dimitriou
Hydrology 2025, 12(1), 13; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology12010013 - 11 Jan 2025
Viewed by 909
Abstract
The water resource management of transboundary mountainous river basins under climate change is expected to be challenging. In order to contribute to the better understanding of climate change effects on the water resources of the mountainous and transboundary Prespa Lakes basin, a hydrological [...] Read more.
The water resource management of transboundary mountainous river basins under climate change is expected to be challenging. In order to contribute to the better understanding of climate change effects on the water resources of the mountainous and transboundary Prespa Lakes basin, a hydrological model of the Agios Germanos River, one of the main rivers discharging to Great Prespa Lake, was developed, and two water management plans under two different climate scenarios were examined. Based on the results, the impact of climate change on surface water resources was evident in all climate change scenarios examined, even under the most favorable water abstraction practices. Nevertheless, sensible water management can moderate the impact of climate change by up to 10% in an optimistic scenario in both the near- and long-term, and by up to 6% and 1% for the near- and long-term, respectively, in a pessimistic scenario. Integrated water management practices that moderate the impact of climate change on the water ecosystem services should be prioritized. Nature-based approaches could provide solutions regarding climate change adaptation and mitigation. Transboundary cooperation, data exchange mechanisms, common policy frameworks, and monitoring, reporting, and evaluation systems, could reduce human and ecosystems’ vulnerabilities and improve the water security of the area. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Runoff Modelling under Climate Change)
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17 pages, 26856 KiB  
Article
Changed Seasonality and Forcings of Peak Annual Flows in Ephemeral Channels at Flagstaff, Northern Arizona, USA
by Erik Schiefer and Edward Schenk
Hydrology 2024, 11(8), 115; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology11080115 - 3 Aug 2024
Viewed by 1264
Abstract
Flood variability associated with urbanization, ecological change, and climatic change is of increasing economic and social concern in and around Flagstaff, Arizona, where flood hydrology is influenced by a biannual precipitation regime and the relatively unique geologic setting at the edge of the [...] Read more.
Flood variability associated with urbanization, ecological change, and climatic change is of increasing economic and social concern in and around Flagstaff, Arizona, where flood hydrology is influenced by a biannual precipitation regime and the relatively unique geologic setting at the edge of the San Francisco Volcanic Field on the southern edge of the Colorado Plateau. There has been limited long-term gauging of the ephemeral channels draining the developed lands and dry coniferous forests of the region, resulting in a spaciotemporal gap in observation-based assessments of large-scale flooding patterns. We present new data from over 10 years of flood monitoring using a crest stage gauge network, combined with other channel monitoring records from multiple agency sources, to assess inter-decadal patterns of flood change in the area, with a specific emphasis on examining how various controls and disturbances have altered the character and seasonality of peak annual flows. Methods of analysis included the following: using Fisher’s Exact Test to compare the seasonality of flooding between historic data spanning the 1970s and contemporary data obtained since 2010; summarizing GIS-based spatial data and meteorological timeseries to characterize study catchment conditions and changes between flood study periods; and relating spatiotemporal patterns of flood seasonality and occurrences of notably large floods with catchment characteristics and environmental changes. Our results show systematic patterns and changes in Flagstaff-area flood regimes that relate to geologic and topographic controls of the varied catchment systems, and in response to records of climate variations and local catchment disturbances, including urbanization and, especially, high-severity wildfire. For most catchments there has been a shift from predominantly late winter to spring snowmelt floods, or mixed seasonal flood regimes, towards monsoon-dominated flooding, patterns which may relate to observed local warming and precipitation changes. Post-wildfire flooding has produced extreme flood discharges which have likely exceeded historical estimates of flood magnitude over decade-long monitoring periods by one to two orders of magnitude. We advocate for continued monitoring and the expansion of local stream gauge networks to enable seasonal, magnitude-frequency trend analyses, improved climate and environmental change attribution, and to better inform the many planned and ongoing flood mitigation projects being undertaken in the increasingly developed Flagstaff region. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Runoff Modelling under Climate Change)
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22 pages, 6265 KiB  
Article
Hydrologic Sensitivity of a Critical Turkish Watershed to Inform Water Resource Management in an Altered Climate
by Furkan Yunus Emre Cevahir, Jennifer C. Adam, Mingliang Liu and Justin Sheffield
Hydrology 2024, 11(5), 64; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology11050064 - 30 Apr 2024
Viewed by 1655
Abstract
This study introduces a novel sensitivity analysis approach to assess the resilience and susceptibility of hydrologic systems to the stresses of climate change, moving away from conventional top-down methodologies. By exploring the hydrological sensitivity of the upper Kızılırmak River basin using the Variable [...] Read more.
This study introduces a novel sensitivity analysis approach to assess the resilience and susceptibility of hydrologic systems to the stresses of climate change, moving away from conventional top-down methodologies. By exploring the hydrological sensitivity of the upper Kızılırmak River basin using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, we employed a sensitivity-based approach as an alternative to the traditional Global Climate Model (GCM)-based methods, providing more insightful information for water managers. Considering the consistent projections of increasing temperature over this region in GCMs, the hydrologic system was perturbed to examine gradients of a more challenging climate characterized by warming and drying conditions. The sensitivity of streamflow, snow water equivalent, and evapotranspiration to temperature (T) and precipitation (P) variations under each perturbation or “reference” climate was quantified. Results indicate that streamflow responds to T negatively under all warming scenarios. As the reference climates become drier, streamflow sensitivity to P increases, indicating that meteorological drought impacts on water availability could be exacerbated. These results suggest that there will be heightened difficulty in managing water resources in the region if it undergoes both warming and drying due to the following setbacks: (1) water availability will shift away from the summer season of peak water demand due to the warming effects on the snowpack, (2) annual water availability will likely decrease due to a combination of warming and lower precipitation, and (3) streamflow sensitivity to hydroclimatic variability will increase, meaning that there will be more extreme impacts to water availability. Water managers will need to plan for a larger set of extreme conditions. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Runoff Modelling under Climate Change)
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17 pages, 8109 KiB  
Article
Predictive Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Water Yield in the Meta River Basin, Colombia: An InVEST Model Application
by Jhon B. Valencia, Vladimir V. Guryanov, Jeison Mesa-Diez, Nilton Diaz, Daniel Escobar-Carbonari and Artyom V. Gusarov
Hydrology 2024, 11(2), 25; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology11020025 - 8 Feb 2024
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 3511
Abstract
This paper presents a hydrological assessment of the 113,981 km2 Meta River basin in Colombia using 13 global climate models to predict water yield for 2050 under two CMIP6 scenarios, SSP 4.5 and SSP 8.5. Despite mixed performance across subbasins, the model [...] Read more.
This paper presents a hydrological assessment of the 113,981 km2 Meta River basin in Colombia using 13 global climate models to predict water yield for 2050 under two CMIP6 scenarios, SSP 4.5 and SSP 8.5. Despite mixed performance across subbasins, the model was notably effective in the upper Meta River subbasin. This study predicts an overall increase in the basin’s annual water yield due to increased precipitation, especially in flatter regions. Under the SSP 4.5, the Meta River basin’s water flow is expected to rise from 5141.6 m3/s to 6397.5 m3/s, and to 6101.5 m3/s under the SSP 8.5 scenario, marking 24% and 19% increases in water yield, respectively. Conversely, the upper Meta River subbasin may experience a slight decrease in water yield, while the upper Casanare River subbasin is predicted to see significant increases. The South Cravo River subbasin, however, is expected to face a considerable decline in water yield, indicating potential water scarcity. This study represents a pioneering large-scale application of the InVEST–AWY model in Colombia using CMIP6 global climate models with an integrated approach to produce predictions of future water yields. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Runoff Modelling under Climate Change)
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