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Quantitative Risk Assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in Foods
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Quantitative Risk Assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in Foods

A special issue of Foods (ISSN 2304-8158). This special issue belongs to the section "Food Microbiology".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 20 May 2025 | Viewed by 18183

Special Issue Editor

Prof. Dr. Michel Federighi

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Guest Editor
1. EnvA, 7 Avenue du Général de Gaulle, F-94700 Maisons-Alfort, France
2. INRAe, UMR1014 SECALIM, F-44307 Nantes, France
Interests: risk analysis; food safety; biostatistics; veterinary public health
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

The scope of this Special Issue ‘Quantitative Risk Assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in Foods’ is twofold: (1) to present a critical analysis of the existing human listeriosis quantitative risk assessment models conducted on milk and dairy products, produce, seafood and meat product, highlighting common results from intervention strategies, despite the unavoidable differences in model scopes and assumptions; and (2) to present new quantitative risk assessment models of longer food chain scope, in the light of new data and approaches, to control listeriosis linked to specific foods such as frozen vegetables, cantaloupe and ready-to-eat seafood.

In response to a request by the Codex Committee on Food Hygiene (CCFH) at its 52nd session, formal risk assessment models were developed by the Joint FAO/WHO Expert Meeting on Microbiological Risk Assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in Foods: Part 1 (FAO HQ, Rome, Italy: 24–28 October 2022), taking into account the effects of agrifood practices, climate change and the latent possibility of cross-contamination along the food chain. Programmed models were subsequently tested and revised at the Joint FAO/WHO Expert Meeting on Microbiological Risk Assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in Foods, Part 2: Risk Assessment Models (WHO HQ, Geneva, Switzerland: 29 May–2 June 2023).

Prof. Dr. Michel Federighi
Guest Editor

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Keywords

  • listeriosis
  • cantaloupe
  • produce
  • seafood
  • ready-to-eat
  • dose–response
  • simulation models
  • intervention strategies

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Published Papers (7 papers)

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Research

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47 pages, 2058 KiB  
Article
A Quantitative Risk Assessment Model for Listeria monocytogenes in Ready-to-Eat Smoked and Gravad Fish
by Ursula Gonzales-Barron, Régis Pouillot, Taran Skjerdal, Elena Carrasco, Paula Teixeira, Matthew J. Stasiewicz, Akio Hasegawa, Juliana De Oliveira Mota, Laurent Guillier, Vasco Cadavez and Moez Sanaa
Foods 2024, 13(23), 3831; https://doi.org/10.3390/foods13233831 - 27 Nov 2024
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1142
Abstract
This study introduces a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) model aimed at evaluating the risk of invasive listeriosis linked to the consumption of ready-to-eat (RTE) smoked and gravad fish. The QRA model, based on published data, simulates the production process from fish harvest through [...] Read more.
This study introduces a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) model aimed at evaluating the risk of invasive listeriosis linked to the consumption of ready-to-eat (RTE) smoked and gravad fish. The QRA model, based on published data, simulates the production process from fish harvest through to consumer intake, specifically focusing on smoked brine-injected, smoked dry-salted, and gravad fish. In a reference scenario, model predictions reveal substantial probabilities of lot and pack contamination at the end of processing (38.7% and 8.14% for smoked brined fish, 34.4% and 6.49% for smoked dry-salted fish, and 52.2% and 11.1% for gravad fish), although the concentrations of L. monocytogenes are very low, with virtually no packs exceeding 10 CFU/g at the point of sale. The risk of listeriosis for an elderly consumer per serving is also quantified. The lot-level mean risk of listeriosis per serving in the elderly population was 9.751 × 10−8 for smoked brined fish, 9.634 × 10−8 for smoked dry-salted fish, and 2.086 × 10−7 for gravad fish. Risk reduction strategies were then analyzed, indicating that the application of protective cultures and maintaining lower cold storage temperatures significantly mitigate listeriosis risk compared to reducing incoming fish lot contamination. The model also addresses the effectiveness of control measures during processing, such as minimizing cross-contamination. The comprehensive QRA model has been made available as a fully documented qraLm R package. This facilitates its adaptation for risk assessment of other RTE seafood, making it a valuable tool for public health officials to evaluate and manage food safety risks more effectively. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Quantitative Risk Assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in Foods)
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28 pages, 1837 KiB  
Article
A Quantitative Risk Assessment Model for Listeria monocytogenes in Non-Ready-to-Eat Frozen Vegetables
by Ursula Gonzales-Barron, Régis Pouillot, Juliana De Oliveira Mota, Akio Hasegawa, Ana Allende, Qingli Dong, Matthew J. Stasiewicz, Jovana Kovacevic, Vasco Cadavez, Laurent Guillier and Moez Sanaa
Foods 2024, 13(22), 3610; https://doi.org/10.3390/foods13223610 - 12 Nov 2024
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 2045
Abstract
A quantitative risk assessment (QRA) model was developed to evaluate the risk of invasive listeriosis from the consumption of non-ready-to-eat (non-RTE) frozen vegetables. On a lot basis, the QRA model simulates Listeria monocytogenes concentration and prevalence in a “Processing module” that comprises blanching, [...] Read more.
A quantitative risk assessment (QRA) model was developed to evaluate the risk of invasive listeriosis from the consumption of non-ready-to-eat (non-RTE) frozen vegetables. On a lot basis, the QRA model simulates Listeria monocytogenes concentration and prevalence in a “Processing module” that comprises blanching, potential recontamination and packaging, any post-packaging inactivation treatment, and within-lot end-product testing and in a subsequent “Consumer’s handling module” that encompasses portioning of frozen vegetables, defrosting, and cooking. Based on available published data, the model was coded in nine sequential R functions designed to assess the effectiveness of blanching, the improvement in processing environment hygiene, the implementation of sampling schemes at the end of processing, and improved consumer instructions on the product’s package. In a reference scenario, the model estimated that 9.4% of 500 g packages of frozen vegetables would be contaminated, although at mean levels lower than 10 CFU/g, and assuming that 20% of the portions of frozen vegetables would be left to thaw at room temperature for 2 h, the lot-level mean risk of listeriosis in the susceptible population would be 2.935 × 10−14 (median 5.446 × 10−15) for uncooked 50 g servings and 2.765 × 10−17 (median 5.184 × 10−18) for cooked 50 g servings. Analysis of selected scenarios suggested that not cooking the non-RTE product contributes to the risk to a greater extent than the level of contamination in the incoming raw vegetables, the latter in turn being more influential than the level of contamination in the processing environment. The QRA model is freely available as an R package with full documentation and can be used as a tool to inform the consideration of strengthened risk management measures in view of the current changes in consumer behavior and new diet trends. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Quantitative Risk Assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in Foods)
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15 pages, 749 KiB  
Article
Updated Parameters for Listeria monocytogenes Dose–Response Model Considering Pathogen Virulence and Age and Sex of Consumer
by Régis Pouillot, Andreas Kiermeier, Laurent Guillier, Vasco Cadavez and Moez Sanaa
Foods 2024, 13(5), 751; https://doi.org/10.3390/foods13050751 - 29 Feb 2024
Cited by 11 | Viewed by 2108
Abstract
Better knowledge regarding the Listeria monocytogenes dose–response (DR) model is needed to refine the assessment of the risk of foodborne listeriosis. In 2018, the European Food Safety Agency (EFSA) derived a lognormal Poisson DR model for 14 different age–sex sub-groups, marginally to strain [...] Read more.
Better knowledge regarding the Listeria monocytogenes dose–response (DR) model is needed to refine the assessment of the risk of foodborne listeriosis. In 2018, the European Food Safety Agency (EFSA) derived a lognormal Poisson DR model for 14 different age–sex sub-groups, marginally to strain virulence. In the present study, new sets of parameters are developed by integrating the EFSA model for these sub-groups together with three classes of strain virulence characteristics (“less virulent”, “virulent”, and “more virulent”). Considering classes of virulence leads to estimated relative risks (RRs) of listeriosis following the ingestion of 1000 bacteria of “less virulent” vs. “more virulent” strains ranging from 21.6 to 24.1, depending on the sub-group. These relatively low RRs when compared with RRs linked to comorbidities described in the literature suggest that the influence of comorbidity on the occurrence of invasive listeriosis for a given exposure is much more important than the influence of the virulence of the strains. The updated model parameters allow better prediction of the risk of invasive listeriosis across a population of interest, provided the necessary data on population demographics and the proportional contribution of strain virulence classes in food products of interest are available. An R package is made available to facilitate the use of these dose–response models. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Quantitative Risk Assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in Foods)
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Review

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19 pages, 327 KiB  
Review
A Critical Review of Risk Assessment Models for Listeria monocytogenes in Produce
by Ursula Gonzales-Barron, Vasco Cadavez, Juliana De Oliveira Mota, Laurent Guillier and Moez Sanaa
Foods 2024, 13(7), 1111; https://doi.org/10.3390/foods13071111 - 4 Apr 2024
Cited by 3 | Viewed by 2682
Abstract
A review of quantitative risk assessment (QRA) models of Listeria monocytogenes in produce was carried out, with the objective of appraising and contrasting the effectiveness of the control strategies placed along the food chains. Despite nine of the thirteen QRA models recovered being [...] Read more.
A review of quantitative risk assessment (QRA) models of Listeria monocytogenes in produce was carried out, with the objective of appraising and contrasting the effectiveness of the control strategies placed along the food chains. Despite nine of the thirteen QRA models recovered being focused on fresh or RTE leafy greens, none of them represented important factors or sources of contamination in the primary production, such as the type of cultivation, water, fertilisers or irrigation method/practices. Cross-contamination at processing and during consumer’s handling was modelled using transfer rates, which were shown to moderately drive the final risk of listeriosis, therefore highlighting the importance of accurately representing the transfer coefficient parameters. Many QRA models coincided in the fact that temperature fluctuations at retail or temperature abuse at home were key factors contributing to increasing the risk of listeriosis. In addition to a primary module that could help assess current on-farm practices and potential control measures, future QRA models for minimally processed produce should also contain a refined sanitisation module able to estimate the effectiveness of various sanitisers as a function of type, concentration and exposure time. Finally, L. monocytogenes growth in the products down the supply chain should be estimated by using realistic time–temperature trajectories, and validated microbial kinetic parameters, both of them currently available in the literature. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Quantitative Risk Assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in Foods)
17 pages, 302 KiB  
Review
A Critical Review of Risk Assessment Models for Listeria monocytogenes in Seafood
by Ursula Gonzales-Barron, Vasco Cadavez, Juliana De Oliveira Mota, Laurent Guillier and Moez Sanaa
Foods 2024, 13(5), 716; https://doi.org/10.3390/foods13050716 - 26 Feb 2024
Cited by 5 | Viewed by 2297
Abstract
Invasive listeriosis, due to its severe nature in susceptible populations, has been the focus of many quantitative risk assessment (QRA) models aiming to provide a valuable guide in future risk management efforts. A review of the published QRA models of Listeria monocytogenes in [...] Read more.
Invasive listeriosis, due to its severe nature in susceptible populations, has been the focus of many quantitative risk assessment (QRA) models aiming to provide a valuable guide in future risk management efforts. A review of the published QRA models of Listeria monocytogenes in seafood was performed, with the objective of appraising the effectiveness of the control strategies at different points along the food chain. It is worth noting, however, that the outcomes of a QRA model are context-specific, and influenced by the country and target population, the assumptions that are employed, and the model architecture itself. Studies containing QRA models were retrieved through a literature search using properly connected keywords on Scopus and PubMed®. All 13 QRA models that were recovered were of short scope, covering, at most, the period from the end of processing to consumption; the majority (85%) focused on smoked or gravad fish. Since the modelled pathways commenced with the packaged product, none of the QRA models addressed cross-contamination events. Many models agreed that keeping the product’s temperature at 4.0–4.5 °C leads to greater reductions in the final risk of listeriosis than reducing the shelf life by one week and that the effectiveness of both measures can be surpassed by reducing the initial occurrence of L. monocytogenes in the product (at the end of processing). It is, therefore, necessary that future QRA models for RTE seafood contain a processing module that can provide insight into intervention strategies that can retard L. monocytogenes’ growth, such as the use of bacteriocins, ad hoc starter cultures and/or organic acids, and other strategies seeking to reduce cross-contamination at the facilities, such as stringent controls for sanitation procedures. Since risk estimates were shown to be moderately driven by growth kinetic parameters, namely, the exponential growth rate, the minimum temperature for growth, and the maximum population density, further work is needed to reduce uncertainties. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Quantitative Risk Assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in Foods)
21 pages, 318 KiB  
Review
A Critical Review of Risk Assessment Models for Listeria monocytogenes in Meat and Meat Products
by Ursula Gonzales-Barron, Vasco Cadavez, Juliana De Oliveira Mota, Laurent Guillier and Moez Sanaa
Foods 2024, 13(3), 359; https://doi.org/10.3390/foods13030359 - 23 Jan 2024
Cited by 3 | Viewed by 3459
Abstract
A review of the published quantitative risk assessment (QRA) models of L. monocytogenes in meat and meat products was performed, with the objective of appraising the intervention strategies deemed suitable for implementation along the food chain as well as their relative effectiveness. A [...] Read more.
A review of the published quantitative risk assessment (QRA) models of L. monocytogenes in meat and meat products was performed, with the objective of appraising the intervention strategies deemed suitable for implementation along the food chain as well as their relative effectiveness. A systematic review retrieved 23 QRA models; most of them (87%) focused on ready-to-eat meat products and the majority (78%) also covered short supply chains (end processing/retail to consumption, or consumption only). The processing-to-table scope was the choice of models for processed meats such as chorizo, bulk-cooked meat, fermented sausage and dry-cured pork, in which the effects of processing were simulated. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated the importance of obtaining accurate estimates for lag time, growth rate and maximum microbial density, in particular when affected by growth inhibitors and lactic acid bacteria. In the case of deli meats, QRA models showed that delicatessen meats sliced at retail were associated with a higher risk of listeriosis than manufacture pre-packed deli meats. Many models converged on the fact that (1) controlling cold storage temperature led to greater reductions in the final risk than decreasing the time to consumption and, furthermore, that (2) lower numbers and less prevalence of L. monocytogenes at the end of processing were far more effective than keeping low temperatures and/or short times during retail and/or home storage. Therefore, future listeriosis QRA models for meat products should encompass a processing module in order to assess the intervention strategies that lead to lower numbers and prevalence, such as the use of bio-preservation and novel technologies. Future models should be built upon accurate microbial kinetic parameters, and should realistically represent cross-contamination events along the food chain. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Quantitative Risk Assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in Foods)
19 pages, 514 KiB  
Review
A Critical Review of Risk Assessment Models for Listeria monocytogenes in Dairy Products
by Ursula Gonzales-Barron, Vasco Cadavez, Laurent Guillier and Moez Sanaa
Foods 2023, 12(24), 4436; https://doi.org/10.3390/foods12244436 - 11 Dec 2023
Cited by 8 | Viewed by 3184
Abstract
A review of the published quantitative risk assessment (QRA) models of L. monocytogenes in dairy products was undertaken in order to identify and appraise the relative effectiveness of control measures and intervention strategies implemented at primary production, processing, retail, and consumer practices. A [...] Read more.
A review of the published quantitative risk assessment (QRA) models of L. monocytogenes in dairy products was undertaken in order to identify and appraise the relative effectiveness of control measures and intervention strategies implemented at primary production, processing, retail, and consumer practices. A systematic literature search retrieved 18 QRA models, most of them (9) investigated raw and pasteurized milk cheeses, with the majority covering long supply chains (4 farm-to-table and 3 processing-to-table scopes). On-farm contamination sources, either from shedding animals or from the broad environment, have been demonstrated by different QRA models to impact the risk of listeriosis, in particular for raw milk cheeses. Through scenarios and sensitivity analysis, QRA models demonstrated the importance of the modeled growth rate and lag phase duration and showed that the risk contribution of consumers’ practices is greater than in retail conditions. Storage temperature was proven to be more determinant of the final risk than storage time. Despite the pathogen’s known ability to reside in damp spots or niches, re-contamination and/or cross-contamination were modeled in only two QRA studies. Future QRA models in dairy products should entail the full farm-to-table scope, should represent cross-contamination and the use of novel technologies, and should estimate L. monocytogenes growth more accurately by means of better-informed kinetic parameters and realistic time–temperature trajectories. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Quantitative Risk Assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in Foods)
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