Special Issue "Theories and Models on COVID-19 Epidemics"

A special issue of Biology (ISSN 2079-7737).

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 15 April 2021.

Special Issue Editors

Prof. Jacques Demongeot
Website
Guest Editor
Faculty of Medicine, Université Grenoble Alpes, 621 Avenue Centrale, 38400 Saint-Martin-d'Hères, France
Interests: Medical Imaging;io-Informatics;Bio-Modelling;Biological Complexity; Systems Biology
Special Issues and Collections in MDPI journals
Prof. Dr. Pierre Magal
Website
Guest Editor
Institut de Mathématiques de Bordeaux, Université de Bordeaux, 351 cours de la libération 33400 Talence, France
Interests: mathematical modeling; partial differential equations (PDE); numerical simulations; epidemiology; ecology modeling

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

An outbreak of the novel coronavirus, COVID-19, rapidly spread around the world in 2020. Currently, there are many unanswered questions about this novel coronavirus, e.g., the dynamics of infection, reinfection, climate effects, fatality rate, etc. Theoreticians and modelers can help us to understand such issues and make substantial contributions to explain the virus transmission dynamics. This Special Issue will collect timely papers on modeling studies concerning the biological, epidemiological, immunological, molecular, and virological aspects of COVID-19. This Special Issue aims to bring together theoreticians, mathematical modelers, biophysicists, biologists, and medical doctors to improve our understanding of the disease by using several approaches.

Prof. Jacques Demongeot
Prof. Dr. Pierre Magal
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All papers will be peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Biology is an international peer-reviewed open access monthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 1400 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Published Papers (3 papers)

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Research

Open AccessArticle
De-Escalation by Reversing the Escalation with a Stronger Synergistic Package of Contact Tracing, Quarantine, Isolation and Personal Protection: Feasibility of Preventing a COVID-19 Rebound in Ontario, Canada, as a Case Study
Biology 2020, 9(5), 100; https://doi.org/10.3390/biology9050100 - 16 May 2020
Abstract
Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, most Canadian provinces have gone through four distinct phases of social distancing and enhanced testing. A transmission dynamics model fitted to the cumulative case time series data permits us to estimate the effectiveness of interventions implemented [...] Read more.
Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, most Canadian provinces have gone through four distinct phases of social distancing and enhanced testing. A transmission dynamics model fitted to the cumulative case time series data permits us to estimate the effectiveness of interventions implemented in terms of the contact rate, probability of transmission per contact, proportion of isolated contacts, and detection rate. This allows us to calculate the control reproduction number during different phases (which gradually decreased to less than one). From this, we derive the necessary conditions in terms of enhanced social distancing, personal protection, contact tracing, quarantine/isolation strength at each escalation phase for the disease control to avoid a rebound. From this, we quantify the conditions needed to prevent epidemic rebound during de-escalation by simply reversing the escalation process. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Theories and Models on COVID-19 Epidemics)
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Open AccessArticle
Using Early Data to Estimate the Actual Infection Fatality Ratio from COVID-19 in France
Biology 2020, 9(5), 97; https://doi.org/10.3390/biology9050097 - 08 May 2020
Cited by 1
Abstract
The number of screening tests carried out in France and the methodology used to target the patients tested do not allow for a direct computation of the actual number of cases and the infection fatality ratio (IFR). The main objective of this work [...] Read more.
The number of screening tests carried out in France and the methodology used to target the patients tested do not allow for a direct computation of the actual number of cases and the infection fatality ratio (IFR). The main objective of this work is to estimate the actual number of people infected with COVID-19 and to deduce the IFR during the observation window in France. We develop a ‘mechanistic-statistical’ approach coupling a SIR epidemiological model describing the unobserved epidemiological dynamics, a probabilistic model describing the data acquisition process and a statistical inference method. The actual number of infected cases in France is probably higher than the observations: we find here a factor ×8 (95%-CI: 5–12) which leads to an IFR in France of 0.5% (95%-CI: 0.3–0.8) based on hospital death counting data. Adjusting for the number of deaths in nursing homes, we obtain an IFR of 0.8% (95%-CI: 0.45–1.25). This IFR is consistent with previous findings in China (0.66%) and in the UK (0.9%) and lower than the value previously computed on the Diamond Princess cruse ship data (1.3%). Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Theories and Models on COVID-19 Epidemics)
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Open AccessArticle
Temperature Decreases Spread Parameters of the New Covid-19 Case Dynamics
Biology 2020, 9(5), 94; https://doi.org/10.3390/biology9050094 - 03 May 2020
Abstract
(1) Background: The virulence of coronavirus diseases due to viruses like SARS-CoV or MERS-CoV decreases in humid and hot weather. The putative temperature dependence of infectivity by the new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 or covid-19 has a high predictive medical interest. (2) Methods: External temperature [...] Read more.
(1) Background: The virulence of coronavirus diseases due to viruses like SARS-CoV or MERS-CoV decreases in humid and hot weather. The putative temperature dependence of infectivity by the new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 or covid-19 has a high predictive medical interest. (2) Methods: External temperature and new covid-19 cases in 21 countries and in the French administrative regions were collected from public data. Associations between epidemiological parameters of the new case dynamics and temperature were examined using an ARIMA model. (3) Results: We show that, in the first stages of the epidemic, the velocity of contagion decreases with country- or region-wise temperature. (4) Conclusions: Results indicate that high temperatures diminish initial contagion rates, but seasonal temperature effects at later stages of the epidemy remain questionable. Confinement policies and other eviction rules should account for climatological heterogeneities, in order to adapt the public health decisions to possible geographic or seasonal gradients. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Theories and Models on COVID-19 Epidemics)
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