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Article

SARS-CoV-2 and Rohingya Refugee Camp, Bangladesh: Uncertainty and How the Government Took Over the Situation

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Department of Mathematics, University of Dhaka, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh
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Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB T2N 1N4, Canada
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Department of Computer Science & Engineering, State University of Bangladesh, Dhaka 1205, Bangladesh
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Department of Public Health, North South University, Dhaka 1229, Bangladesh
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Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research, Dhaka 1212, Bangladesh
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Health, Nutrition and Population Global Practice, The World Bank, Dhaka 1207, Bangladesh
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Department of Mathematics, Schreiner University, Kerrville, TX 78028, USA
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Department of Mathematics, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011, USA
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Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX 79409, USA
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Department of Mathematical, Physical, and Engineering Sciences, Texas A&M University San Antonio, San Antonio, TX 78224, USA
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Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editors: Jacques Demongeot and Jukka Finne
Biology 2021, 10(2), 124; https://doi.org/10.3390/biology10020124
Received: 23 December 2020 / Revised: 21 January 2021 / Accepted: 29 January 2021 / Published: 5 February 2021
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Theories and Models on COVID-19 Epidemics)
Year-long, every human race is fighting against SARS-CoV-2 with their all resources. Since 2017, the Bangladeshi government is providing shelter to a huge number of Rohingya refugees, and now in this COVID-19 pandemic, the government is to provide all necessities and medical supports to this population, while the country hardly can fulfill all rights of her own population. This study analyzes the SARS-CoV-2 situation in the Rohingya refugee camps at Cox’s Bazar and found that the authority has done a great job taking control over the murrain compared to the host and over-all the worldwide situation. Although taken precautions are good enough till now, more detailed and pragmatic preparedness should be adopted for the worst scenario in case. Last but not least, this success would not be possible without the help of other non-governmental and international voluntary and professional organizations.
Background: Bangladesh hosts more than 800,000 Rohingya refugees from Myanmar. The low health immunity, lifestyle, access to good healthcare services, and social-security cause this population to be at risk of far more direct effects of COVID-19 than the host population. Therefore, evidence-based forecasting of the COVID-19 burden is vital in this regard. In this study, we aimed to forecast the COVID-19 obligation among the Rohingya refugees of Bangladesh to keep up with the disease outbreak’s pace, health needs, and disaster preparedness. Methodology and Findings: To estimate the possible consequences of COVID-19 in the Rohingya camps of Bangladesh, we used a modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) transmission model. All of the values of different parameters used in this model were from the Bangladesh Government’s database and the relevant emerging literature. We addressed two different scenarios, i.e., the best-fitting model and the good-fitting model with unique consequences of COVID-19. Our best fitting model suggests that there will be reasonable control over the transmission of the COVID-19 disease. At the end of December 2020, there will be only 169 confirmed COVID-19 cases in the Rohingya refugee camps. The average basic reproduction number (R0) has been estimated to be 0.7563. Conclusions: Our analysis suggests that, due to the extensive precautions from the Bangladesh government and other humanitarian organizations, the coronavirus disease will be under control if the maintenance continues like this. However, detailed and pragmatic preparedness should be adopted for the worst scenario. View Full-Text
Keywords: COVID-19; Rohingya Refugee camp; mathematical model; numerical results; basic reproduction number; AMS Subject Classication 2010; 92D25; 92D30; 97M60; 97M99 COVID-19; Rohingya Refugee camp; mathematical model; numerical results; basic reproduction number; AMS Subject Classication 2010; 92D25; 92D30; 97M60; 97M99
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MDPI and ACS Style

Kamrujjaman, M.; Mahmud, M.S.; Ahmed, S.; Qayum, M.O.; Alam, M.M.; Hassan, M.N.; Islam, M.R.; Nipa, K.F.; Bulut, U. SARS-CoV-2 and Rohingya Refugee Camp, Bangladesh: Uncertainty and How the Government Took Over the Situation. Biology 2021, 10, 124. https://doi.org/10.3390/biology10020124

AMA Style

Kamrujjaman M, Mahmud MS, Ahmed S, Qayum MO, Alam MM, Hassan MN, Islam MR, Nipa KF, Bulut U. SARS-CoV-2 and Rohingya Refugee Camp, Bangladesh: Uncertainty and How the Government Took Over the Situation. Biology. 2021; 10(2):124. https://doi.org/10.3390/biology10020124

Chicago/Turabian Style

Kamrujjaman, Md., Md. S. Mahmud, Shakil Ahmed, Md. O. Qayum, Mohammad M. Alam, Md N. Hassan, Md R. Islam, Kaniz F. Nipa, and Ummugul Bulut. 2021. "SARS-CoV-2 and Rohingya Refugee Camp, Bangladesh: Uncertainty and How the Government Took Over the Situation" Biology 10, no. 2: 124. https://doi.org/10.3390/biology10020124

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