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Temperature Decreases Spread Parameters of the New Covid-19 Case Dynamics

Laboratory AGEIS EA 7407, Team Tools for e-Gnosis Medical & Labcom CNRS/UGA/OrangeLabs Telecom4Health, Faculty of Medicine, Université Grenoble Alpes, F-38700 La Tronche, France
Laboratory CRIStAL, UMR 9189, CNRS, Université de Lille, Campus Scientifique, Avenue Henri Poincaré, F-59655 Villeneuve d’Ascq, France
The National Natural History Collections, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem 91404, Israel
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Biology 2020, 9(5), 94;
Received: 31 March 2020 / Revised: 24 April 2020 / Accepted: 30 April 2020 / Published: 3 May 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Theories and Models on COVID-19 Epidemics)
(1) Background: The virulence of coronavirus diseases due to viruses like SARS-CoV or MERS-CoV decreases in humid and hot weather. The putative temperature dependence of infectivity by the new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 or covid-19 has a high predictive medical interest. (2) Methods: External temperature and new covid-19 cases in 21 countries and in the French administrative regions were collected from public data. Associations between epidemiological parameters of the new case dynamics and temperature were examined using an ARIMA model. (3) Results: We show that, in the first stages of the epidemic, the velocity of contagion decreases with country- or region-wise temperature. (4) Conclusions: Results indicate that high temperatures diminish initial contagion rates, but seasonal temperature effects at later stages of the epidemy remain questionable. Confinement policies and other eviction rules should account for climatological heterogeneities, in order to adapt the public health decisions to possible geographic or seasonal gradients. View Full-Text
Keywords: covid-19; temperature sensitivity; weather-dependent virulence; heat inhibition covid-19; temperature sensitivity; weather-dependent virulence; heat inhibition
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Demongeot, J.; Flet-Berliac, Y.; Seligmann, H. Temperature Decreases Spread Parameters of the New Covid-19 Case Dynamics. Biology 2020, 9, 94.

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