Next Article in Journal
3-Iodothyronamine Affects Thermogenic Substrates’ Mobilization in Brown Adipocytes
Next Article in Special Issue
Using Early Data to Estimate the Actual Infection Fatality Ratio from COVID-19 in France
Previous Article in Journal
The Role of the Histone Methyltransferase EZH2 in Liver Inflammation and Fibrosis in STAM NASH Mice
Open AccessArticle

Temperature Decreases Spread Parameters of the New Covid-19 Case Dynamics

1
Laboratory AGEIS EA 7407, Team Tools for e-Gnosis Medical & Labcom CNRS/UGA/OrangeLabs Telecom4Health, Faculty of Medicine, Université Grenoble Alpes, F-38700 La Tronche, France
2
Laboratory CRIStAL, UMR 9189, CNRS, Université de Lille, Campus Scientifique, Avenue Henri Poincaré, F-59655 Villeneuve d’Ascq, France
3
The National Natural History Collections, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem 91404, Israel
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Biology 2020, 9(5), 94; https://doi.org/10.3390/biology9050094
Received: 31 March 2020 / Revised: 24 April 2020 / Accepted: 30 April 2020 / Published: 3 May 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Theories and Models on COVID-19 Epidemics)
(1) Background: The virulence of coronavirus diseases due to viruses like SARS-CoV or MERS-CoV decreases in humid and hot weather. The putative temperature dependence of infectivity by the new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 or covid-19 has a high predictive medical interest. (2) Methods: External temperature and new covid-19 cases in 21 countries and in the French administrative regions were collected from public data. Associations between epidemiological parameters of the new case dynamics and temperature were examined using an ARIMA model. (3) Results: We show that, in the first stages of the epidemic, the velocity of contagion decreases with country- or region-wise temperature. (4) Conclusions: Results indicate that high temperatures diminish initial contagion rates, but seasonal temperature effects at later stages of the epidemy remain questionable. Confinement policies and other eviction rules should account for climatological heterogeneities, in order to adapt the public health decisions to possible geographic or seasonal gradients. View Full-Text
Keywords: covid-19; temperature sensitivity; weather-dependent virulence; heat inhibition covid-19; temperature sensitivity; weather-dependent virulence; heat inhibition
Show Figures

Figure 1

MDPI and ACS Style

Demongeot, J.; Flet-Berliac, Y.; Seligmann, H. Temperature Decreases Spread Parameters of the New Covid-19 Case Dynamics. Biology 2020, 9, 94.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats
Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Article Access Map by Country/Region

1
Search more from Scilit
 
Search
Back to TopTop