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Inverted Covariate Effects for First versus Mutated Second Wave Covid-19: High Temperature Spread Biased for Young

1
Laboratory AGEIS EA 7407, Team Tools for e-Gnosis Medical & Labcom CNRS/UGA/OrangeLabs Telecom4Health, Faculty of Medicine, University Grenoble Alpes (UGA), 38700 La Tronche, France
2
The National Natural History Collections, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem 91404, Israel
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Biology 2020, 9(8), 226; https://doi.org/10.3390/biology9080226
Received: 14 June 2020 / Revised: 12 August 2020 / Accepted: 13 August 2020 / Published: 14 August 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Theories and Models on COVID-19 Epidemics)
(1) Background: Here, we characterize COVID-19’s waves, following a study presenting negative associations between first wave COVID-19 spread parameters and temperature. (2) Methods: Visual examinations of daily increases in confirmed COVID-19 cases in 124 countries, determined first and second waves in 28 countries. (3) Results: The first wave spread rate increases with country mean elevation, median population age, time since wave onset, and decreases with temperature. Spread rates decrease above 1000 m, indicating high ultraviolet lights (UVs) decrease the spread rate. The second wave associations are the opposite, i.e., spread increases with temperature and young age, and decreases with time since wave onset. The earliest second waves started 5–7 April at mutagenic high elevations (Armenia, Algeria). The second waves also occurred at the warm-to-cold season transition (Argentina, Chile). Second vs. first wave spread decreases in most (77%) countries. In countries with late first wave onset, spread rates better fit second than first wave-temperature patterns. In countries with ageing populations (for example, Japan, Sweden, and Ukraine), second waves only adapted to spread at higher temperatures, not to infect the young. (4) Conclusions: First wave viruses evolved towards lower spread. Second wave mutant COVID-19 strain(s) adapted to higher temperature, infecting younger ages and replacing (also in cold conditions) first wave COVID-19 strains. Counterintuitively, low spread strains replace high spread strains, rendering prognostics and extrapolations uncertain. View Full-Text
Keywords: COVID-19; exponential slope; regression; random drift; adaptation for low pathogenicity COVID-19; exponential slope; regression; random drift; adaptation for low pathogenicity
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MDPI and ACS Style

Seligmann, H.; Iggui, S.; Rachdi, M.; Vuillerme, N.; Demongeot, J. Inverted Covariate Effects for First versus Mutated Second Wave Covid-19: High Temperature Spread Biased for Young. Biology 2020, 9, 226. https://doi.org/10.3390/biology9080226

AMA Style

Seligmann H, Iggui S, Rachdi M, Vuillerme N, Demongeot J. Inverted Covariate Effects for First versus Mutated Second Wave Covid-19: High Temperature Spread Biased for Young. Biology. 2020; 9(8):226. https://doi.org/10.3390/biology9080226

Chicago/Turabian Style

Seligmann, Hervé; Iggui, Siham; Rachdi, Mustapha; Vuillerme, Nicolas; Demongeot, Jacques. 2020. "Inverted Covariate Effects for First versus Mutated Second Wave Covid-19: High Temperature Spread Biased for Young" Biology 9, no. 8: 226. https://doi.org/10.3390/biology9080226

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