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Open AccessArticle

Unreported Cases for Age Dependent COVID-19 Outbreak in Japan

1
Institute of Mathematics of Bordeaux (UMR 5251), University of Bordeaux, F-33400 Talence, France
2
Département Tronc Commun, École Polytechnique de Thiès, Thiès BP A10, Senegal
*
Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Biology 2020, 9(6), 132; https://doi.org/10.3390/biology9060132
Received: 12 May 2020 / Revised: 29 May 2020 / Accepted: 12 June 2020 / Published: 17 June 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Theories and Models on COVID-19 Epidemics)
We investigate the age structured data for the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan. We consider a mathematical model for the epidemic with unreported infectious patient with and without age structure. In particular, we build a new mathematical model and a new computational method to fit the data by using age classes dependent exponential growth at the early stage of the epidemic. This allows to take into account differences in the response of patients to the disease according to their age. This model also allows for a heterogeneous response of the population to the social distancing measures taken by the local government. We fit this model to the observed data and obtain a snapshot of the effective transmissions occurring inside the population at different times, which indicates where and among whom the disease propagates after the start of public mitigation measures. View Full-Text
Keywords: coronavirus; age-structured data; reported and unreported cases; isolation; quarantine; public closings; epidemic mathematical model coronavirus; age-structured data; reported and unreported cases; isolation; quarantine; public closings; epidemic mathematical model
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Griette, Q.; Magal, P.; Seydi, O. Unreported Cases for Age Dependent COVID-19 Outbreak in Japan. Biology 2020, 9, 132.

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