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Risks, Volume 6, Issue 2

June 2018 - 39 articles

Cover Story: We have designed a stochastic simulation machine that allows the user to generate a synthetic insurance portfolio of individual claims histories. This simulation machine is based on neural networks to incorporate individual claims feature information and is calibrated using real non-life insurance data. The simulated individual claims histories enable the user to back-test classical aggregate claims reserving methods—such as the chain-ladder method—as well as to develop new claims reserving methods which are based on individual claims histories. This simulation machine may provide a common ground and publicly available (synthetic) data for research in the field of claims reserving. View this paper.
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Articles (39)

  • Article
  • Open Access
2 Citations
6,958 Views
22 Pages

Modelling and Forecasting Stock Price Movements with Serially Dependent Determinants

  • Rasika Yatigammana,
  • Shelton Peiris,
  • Richard Gerlach and
  • David Edmund Allen

7 May 2018

The direction of price movements are analysed under an ordered probit framework, recognising the importance of accounting for discreteness in price changes. By extending the work of Hausman et al. (1972) and Yang and Parwada (2012),This paper focuses...

  • Article
  • Open Access
2 Citations
3,931 Views
20 Pages

4 May 2018

We extend an existing numerical model (Grasselli (2011)) for valuing a real option to invest in a capital project in an incomplete market with a finite time horizon. In doing so, we include two separate effects: the possibility that the project value...

  • Feature Paper
  • Article
  • Open Access
2 Citations
5,959 Views
13 Pages

2 May 2018

Solvency II Standard Formula provides a methodology to recognise the risk-mitigating impact of excess of loss reinsurance treaties in premium risk modelling. We analyse the proposals of both Quantitative Impact Study 5 and Commission Delegated Regula...

  • Article
  • Open Access
3,656 Views
12 Pages

30 April 2018

There are extensive studies on the allocation problems in the field of insurance and finance. We observe that these studies, although involving different methodologies, share some inherent commonalities. In this paper, we develop a new framework for...

  • Article
  • Open Access
5,243 Views
20 Pages

28 April 2018

We study the gap between the state pension provided by the Italian pension system pre-Dini reform and post-Dini reform. The goal is to fill the gap between the old and the new pension by joining a defined contribution pension scheme and adopting an o...

  • Article
  • Open Access
1 Citations
3,909 Views
17 Pages

27 April 2018

According to the last proposals of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, banks or insurance companies under the advanced measurement approach (AMA) must use four different sources of information to assess their operational risk capital requirem...

  • Article
  • Open Access
11 Citations
5,860 Views
16 Pages

24 April 2018

One of the key components of financial risk management is risk measurement. This typically requires modeling, estimating and forecasting tail-related quantities of the asset returns’ conditional distribution. Recent advances in the financial ec...

  • Article
  • Open Access
8 Citations
6,248 Views
16 Pages

24 April 2018

It is impossible to discriminate between the commonly used stochastic volatility models of Heston, log-normal, and 3-over-2 on the basis of exponentially weighted averages of daily returns—even though it appears so at first sight. However, with...

  • Article
  • Open Access
5 Citations
6,656 Views
16 Pages

23 April 2018

Advanced machine learning has achieved extraordinary success in recent years. “Active” operational risk beyond ex post analysis of measured-data machine learning could provide help beyond the regime of traditional statistical analysis whe...

  • Review
  • Open Access
3 Citations
5,621 Views
25 Pages

23 April 2018

We review recent progress in modeling credit risk for correlated assets. We employ a new interpretation of the Wishart model for random correlation matrices to model non-stationary effects. We then use the Merton model in which default events and los...

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Risks - ISSN 2227-9091