Economies, Volume 11, Issue 5 (May 2023) – 23 articles

The global COVID-19 pandemic has suppressed the economy and people’s welfare, including in Indonesia and Central Java Province, as indicated by the weakening of the national economy by −2.06 percent and locally by −2.65 percent in 2020. Although the economy grew by 3.32 percent in 2021, societal welfare remains lower than in 2019, marked by an increase in unemployment and poverty throughout 2019–2021. Furthermore, the threat of COVID-19 including new variants of the virus continues to weigh on the economy, in 2022 and beyond. This study considered an industrial approach to production, based on inter-industrial linkages and policy simulations with input–output analysis. The objectives of this research are to analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy of Central Java and to formulate an effective economic recovery policy for industry. The results show that the industries affected by the COVID-19 pandemic in Central Java can promote recovery of overall income in economic industry better than the leading industry and the industries with the highest output multipliers, expressed as a proportional increase in final demand for each industry. Meanwhile, the economic recovery strategy of increasing final demand in industries with high output multipliers results in a faster increase in economic output compared with increasing final demand in the affected industries or leading industries. Full article

We examine how the policies of Chinese regional governments affect the investment location decisions of firms. Using a dataset compiled from the reports on the investment decisions of 498 listed Chinese companies headquartered in the provinces of Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shanghai, and Zhejiang, we estimate discrete choice models of the investment decisions of these firms. The variables of interest relate to government policies, but we also control for both market and firm characteristics. The provision of superior communications infrastructure leads to an increased probability of investment, as does a lower proportion of state-owned enterprises and a lower burden of regional government administrative expenses. We quantify potential changes in the probability of attracting investment by calculating the average marginal effects over a range of values of the variables of interest. Our extraction of primary data on firms directly from their annual reports allows us to address a gap in the literature with respect to the influence of regional government policies on investment decisions during a historical period (2000–2010) when inter-regional investment was particularly important as it saw a move to the decentralisation of decision making to regional government level. Our results provide useful guidance as to how local governments can best attract investment, namely by focusing on improving communications infrastructure, reducing government ownership of the means of production, and reducing administrative burden. Although there is currently a renewed focus on central government control, these findings remain relevant and can contribute to the ongoing debate concerning the optimal balance between centralisation and decentralisation. Full article

The aim of the present research is to highlight whether there exist any diversification opportunities from investing in developed and developing countries’ Shariah-compliant and non-Shariah-compliant stock markets during global financial crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 pandemic periods. For this purpose, we employ daily data for both Shariah and non-Shariah indices from 29 October 2007 to 31 December 2021. The study uses multivariate GARCH-DCC and wavelet approaches to examine if there exist diversification opportunities in the selected markets. Evidence from this study shows that although the developing markets’ stock returns experience high volatility of a similar degree, the conventional indices of Malaysia have the highest volatility among them. This shows that Shariah indices have less exposure to risk and higher possibilities of diversification compared to their conventional counterparts. Regarding developed markets, the Japanese conventional index and the U.S. Shariah indices are more volatile compared to other indices in the market. Moreover, the results of the wavelet power spectrum show significant and higher volatility during the COVID-19 pandemic rather than the GFC. Similarly, the Chinese conventional market experienced minimum variance during the GFC and COVID-19 pandemic period. On the other hand, the results of wavelet-coherence transform indicate that the Japanese Shariah-based market offered better portfolio opportunities for U.S. traders during the GFC and the COVID-19 pandemic periods. Hence, opportunities for investment in this selected market are basically close to zero. Therefore, investors should carefully choose which stocks they can include in their investment portfolio. Full article

This is a critical review of what the Marxist scientific literature presents on the forms of countertendency to falling profit rates carried out during the COVID-19 pandemic. The 33 articles included in this review were studied using a Marxist approach. The following elements of the articles were synthesized and criticized: the analysis matrices, the methodological aspects of the articles, the elements contrary to the law of the tendency of the rate of profit to fall, and the cases studied and their contexts of analysis. The articles reviewed allow us to state that during the COVID-19 pandemic, there was intensification in the forms of an increased degree of labour exploitation, cheapening of the elements of constant capital, and increased relative overpopulation and shareholder capital. Full article

Both real and monetary shocks have been extensively researched, with conflicting findings on the involvement of the banking sector following the occurrence of these shocks. Nonetheless, liquidity creation (LC) appears to be one of the most underappreciated banking operations. This research analyses the impact of LC on economic volatility and the mechanisms through which LC influences volatility in 10 MENA countries from 2000 to 2019. Using a recently published panel cointegration estimating approach, we show that LC does influence growth volatility over the long term and short term—in other words, LC, as a primary activity of banks, helps to reduce volatility. According to PMG’s findings, both real and monetary shocks significantly increase volatility in the short term compared to their influence in the long term. The channels of expression show that LC mitigates the influence of real shocks (amplifies the effect of monetary shocks) on growth volatility, and there is a greater magnitude of this effect in the short term. Strengthening the banking industry through LC, which is their primary business, could be a critical strategy in avoiding economic swings. Full article

Financial inclusion has garnered global attention due to the detrimental effect that financial exclusion has on tackling socioeconomic challenges such as poverty. Using a dynamic panel approach, our study examines the drivers of financial inclusion in the context of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) over the period 2000 to 2017. We discover that financial globalization and literacy rates positively and significantly drive financial inclusion. We also find that rural population growth has a profound adverse impact on financial inclusion. The study further reveals that bank profitability, bank stability, and economic growth have a negative albeit insignificant effect on financial inclusion. The positive effect of financial globalization on financial inclusion has important policy implications for Sub-Saharan African countries. In this respect, the integration of the local financial system with global financial markets will facilitate efforts to achieve financial inclusion in the region. Full article

This study examines the relationship between branching, lending, and competition in Pakistani banks. Due to denationalization, Pakistani banks started to increase their branch networks and change loan and deposit policies. To check the effect of geographic diversification and distance on the performance of banks, the market power of loans and deposits, and the effect of large and medium banks on the performance of small banks, a sample of commercial banks is selected. The study finds that geographic diversification and distance between bank branches and headquarters do not affect the performance of the banks, but geographic diversification of banks in different areas affects the market power of loans and deposits. The results show that medium and large banks do not affect the performance of the small banks because small banks are better performing in the local market. Medium and large banks are affected by the market power of the loans and deposits of small banks. The study recommends an important policy regarding branch management and its effect on bank performance. Full article

The CMA (Common Monetary Area) is a quadrilateral monetary arrangement encompassing South Africa, Namibia, Lesotho, and Eswatini. The four countries have undergone a gradual improvement in regional economic integration for the effective economic coordination of their policymaking. Despite the monetary coordination, the countries are still experiencing poor economic performance. This study traces how a shock or an unanticipated change in the anchor country’s central bank’s policy instrument, in this case, South Africa, affects the macroeconomic performance in the entire CMA region. Employing a Panel Structural Vector Autoregressive model (Panel-SVAR) and annual data from 1980–2021, the findings show that a positive shock in the repo rate from South Africa significantly affected important macroeconomic performance indicators. The results indicate that a shock in the anchor country’s repo rate is followed by a significant decline in RGDP_G, a decrease in inflation, a decrease in money supply, and an increase in lending rate in the entire CMA region. The study recommends that CMA monetary authorities and policymakers need to formulate policies toward cushioning the effects of unanticipated monetary policy shock from the anchor country as well as global shocks. Full article

The objective of this study is to establish understanding of the success factors in issuing green bonds including the corresponding benefits and challenges of their issuance in Lithuania. The research methodology is comprised of the three parts: (1) a literature review to examine the success factors, benefits, and challenges of issuing green bonds as identified by researchers in different countries; (2) use of the methodological potential of the analysed field to formulate an expert survey via the analytical hierarchy process method; (3) summary of the results of the survey and proposals for its further development. Findings suggest that the reputation, good credit rating, and the environmental, social, and governance score of the issuer are the key considerations in the success of green bonds issuance. On the benefits side, green bonds bear low investment risks with the ability to raise large investment amounts while providing quantifiable and measurable benefits. The challenges related to the issuance of green bonds include greenwashing, the questionable role of the green bond market in environmental protection, and insufficient financial and economic benefits of issuance. Practical implications of the study are based on the notion that findings can be applied as a reference point by potential issuers willing to issue green bonds, investors willing to invest in green bonds, and policy-makers willing to promote sustainable and green finance. An original aspect of this paper is its study focus on peculiarities of the issuance of green bonds in the region, in a smaller country which can serve as a reference point for considering potential issuance of green bonds. Full article

This paper examines the role played by pro-market policies, institutions, natural resources, and infrastructure on the total factor productivity (TFP) of twenty Latin American and Caribbean countries over the period 2000–2018. In estimating the TFP, we use the Färe-Primont index based on DEA. We have verified cointegration and estimated the long-run parameters by the grouped-mean FMOLS estimator. For measuring the impact of institutions, natural resources, and infrastructure, we have used the Productive Capacity Indexes of UNCTAD. We found a positive effect of all these variables on the TFP. Natural resources and energy play the most important role. Followed by information and communication technology and institutions quality. Transport infrastructure has played a minor role. The pro-market policies have been measured by the Fraser Institute indexes. We verified the positive impact of pro-market policies in the area of international trade and financial openness through six different variables. Finally, we considered three areas to measure the impact of domestic regulations and policies; credit, labor and business. We could verify a positive impact of credit and business pro-market policies, but we did not get statistically significant results from the labor regulations index. Full article

This paper investigates the impact of the time-varying elasticity of the cyclically adjusted primary balance (CAPB) and fiscal consolidation on government debt. The time-varying parameter structural vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) model is used on a time series of data from 1979 to 2022. The contribution of this paper is on the understanding of the impact of fiscal consolidation on domestic government debt and the need to use time-varying elasticity when calculating the cyclical adjusted primary balance to provide a more accurate representation of discretionary actions taken by fiscal authorities. It is found that there is more variation in the CAPB with time-varying elasticity than with constant elasticity. Constant elasticity is not effective in capturing fiscal consolidation episodes, and time-varying elasticity is a better alternative. There is evidence that fiscal consolidation increases domestic government debt. The shocks of fiscal consolidation through government expenditure cuts reduce domestic government debt in the long run, while taxes increase domestic government debt. It is recommended that fiscal authorities use fiscal consolidation to reduce government expenditure that is related to inefficient expenditure. In the event of government expenditure, this expenditure needs to be in productive sectors of the economy that will bring about an increase in revenue rather than an increase in the tax rate. Given the result, a tax increase should be something that fiscal authorities are not using in the effort to stimulate economic growth or reduce domestic government debt. Full article

Blockchain has received a lot of attention in financial technology, as it combines many computer technologies, including data storage, point-to-point transmission, and consensus mechanisms, as it is considered a decentralized technology for managing transactions and data that has been developed. The study aimed to demonstrate the impact of the use of blockchain technology on the financial performance of investment projects developed by the Ministry of Sports. We used the descriptive approach (survey study method) as an appropriate method to achieve the objectives of the study due to the suitability of its procedures. The participants in the study included some leaders of the Ministry of Sports and experts in the field of sports investment, as well as some leaders working in the directorates of youth and sports, and some members of the board of directors of the Olympic Committee, sports federations, sports clubs, and youth centers. The study sample was selected in a deliberate way based on the categories of the study population. There were 300 participants in the study, and the researchers used two questionnaires as tools to collect the data. The results revealed a lack of the use of blockchain technology at the Ministry of Sports and a low level of financial performance at the Ministry of Sports. With a correlation between the level of financial performance and the use of blockchain technology, the level of the financial performance of the investment projects developed by the Ministry of Sports could be predicted based on the use of blockchain technology. Finally, the study also provides insight into political implications, limitations, and future directions. Full article

The concept of corporate governance has become a topic of global discussion since The New York Stock Exchange crashed on 19 October 1987, when many multinational companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange experienced large financial losses. CG was a preventive measure and increased investor confidence in the company. CG implementation is influenced by isomorphisms, such as organizational structure and the external environment in the form of regulation, competition, and culture. In Indonesia, the quality of CG implementation still contributes to the country’s economic growth. Weak CG implementation is due to the adoption of the western system immediately. It arises due to a high ownership structure, government intervention, underdeveloped capital markets, and weak law enforcement. This study aims to examine and analyze more deeply about factors that cause CG not to be inadequate to develop properly in Indonesia. Private and state-owned companies in the East Kalimantan Industrial Estate are the research samples for the SOR modelling exploration method. The SOR (stimulus-organism-response) model is a novelty in identifying CG implementation. Identification of the model to obtain a structural model is carried out by using PLS-SEM (partial least square structural equation modelling) through an institutional approach. The results found that the organizational structure and national cultural environment strongly influence CG implementation through the mediation of organizational structure. The contribution to understanding the national cultural environment in CG implementation efforts will be driven by organizational structure. Comprehensively, this study describes other factors such as organizational culture, environment competition, and the environment mediated by organizational structure. The national cultural environment mediated by organizational culture did not significantly affect CG. Full article

This study employs the panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) model to examine the spillover effect of US unconventional monetary policy on inflation and non-inflation targeting emerging markets post credit crunch and during COVID-19 from 2000Q1 to 2020Q4. Unlike other analyses, this paper adds to the existing body of knowledge by employing a dummy variable to represent the United States’ quantitative easing. Other included control variables are equity prices, the federal reserve rate, the exchange rate, central bank assets and the short-term interest rate. This paper estimated two-panel VARs, Model one and Model two, for inflation and non-inflation targeting emerging markets, respectively. Model one consists of eight inflation-targeting markets, and Model two consists of four non-inflation-targeting countries. Other included control variables are equity prices, the federal reserve rate, the nominal effective exchange rate, and the central bank policy rate. According to the empirical results, the US unconventional monetary policy induces a surge in the exchange rate and a decrease in the central bank policy rate for both inflation and non-inflation targeting emerging markets. However, there was no significant impact on the equity prices. The empirical results are statistically significant, robust, and consistent with previous studies except for the response of equity prices. Unconventional monetary policy is effective in steering macroeconomic variables in developed economies. The monetary policymakers in emerging markets must also use the currency reserve to stabilise the macroeconomic variables in response to US unconventional monetary policy shocks. Full article

This paper studies the relationship between environmental innovations and firms’ financial performance from the perspective of environmental activism intensity. We explore how the number of green patents affects the financial performance of small, medium, and large firms and whether the growing number of green patents positively affects firms’ financial performance. We employed a panel data sample of 1136 green innovative and 2395 non-green innovative firms from the USA and Europe and compared their financial results. The results show that small firms benefit financially only in the second year after the first green patent implementation. Medium-sized firms enjoy improved financial performance in the first two years after the implementation of one or two green patents; however, the third green patent does not anyhow improve the financial performance. Large firms gain financial benefits every year after issuing green patents regardless of the patents’ quantity. Generally, the increase in financial performance is moderate in the first year, reaches the maximum in the second year, and becomes statistically insignificant in the third year after the last green patent’s implementation. Full article

Sanctions are a recurrent issue on the international scene that has gained relevance in recent decades. This article intends to approach this matter in an innovative way by analyzing the relative importance of sanctions’ types and objectives, besides target countries’ characteristics, on sanctions outcomes. Unlike most previous studies, we use more comprehensive data and a competing risk discrete-time hazard model to analyze the differences between sanctions termination by target compliance and sender capitulation. Our results show that the determinants for the two outcomes differ and that there are differences in the efficacy of sanctions according to their type and objective. We conclude that while higher levels of political volatility, democracy, and equality in target countries increase the probability of compliance, higher levels of democracy and globalization increase the probability of sender capitulation. Smart sanctions seem to be more effective at targeting compliance, as the likelihood of compliance is higher for financial and military sanctions than for trade. The likelihood of compliance also increases if the objective is to promote democracy and decreases if the objectives are policy, regime change, or terrorism. Instead, the probability of sender capitulation is higher for travel and trade sanctions and if the objective is to promote human rights. Full article

The purpose of this study is to examine equilibrium relationships and dynamic causality between economic growth (measured as GDP), exports, and imports in Jordan using time-series data between 1976 and 2021. In particular, this research attempts to determine exports-led growth, imports-led growth, growth-led exports, and growth-led imports in both the short-run and long-run. The four time-series datasets, GDP, merchandise exports, merchandise imports, and gross capital formation, were examined using the Dickey–Fuller unit root tests, the Phillips–Perron unit root test, and the Johansen’s trace tests for cointegration. The dynamic properties of the VAR(1) were summarized using Granger causality tests and impulse response functions. The test results showed that the impulse response functions indicated that there might be some short-run relationships among our datasets. The Johansen cointegration tests suggested that the series were not cointegrated, and hence there were no long-term relationships among the time series. It appeared that in the short-run, both GDP and gross capital formation Grangerly caused merchandise exports. A unit shock in merchandise exports, merchandise imports, and gross capital formation caused very small fluctuating responses from GDP, merchandise exports, merchandise imports, and gross capital in the short-run, and the responses approached zero in the long-run. Full article

Traditional forecasting methods usually rely on historical macroeconomic indicators with significant delays. To address this problem, new opportunities for economic modeling and forecasting are emerging by using real-time data and making nowcasting of economic activity. This research aims to assess the usefulness of electricity market data to nowcast the economic activity in Lithuania. Various MIDAS regression models are used to nowcast nine monthly macroeconomic indicators. In general, electricity market indicators are useful to nowcast certain macroeconomic indicators. Electricity consumption is the most useful among electricity market indicators and brings benefits when nowcasting imports, industrial production, consumer confidence, wholesale and retail trade, and the repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles. Electricity production is beneficial in nowcasting the industrial production. Meanwhile, electricity price is useful for nowcasting exports, exports of goods of Lithuanian origin, imports, and industrial production. Meanwhile, electricity market data do not improve the prediction of the unemployment rate, economic sentiment indicator, and CPI-based consumer price in comparison with an autoregressive model. Full article

The objectives of this research are to identify the distribution of tourist villages in the Central Java Province using a spatial approach and to analyze the current conditions regarding: (a) the comparison of the conditions of tourist villages and non-tourist villages from the input aspects (attractiveness, accessibility, amenity) supporting tourism development, (b) the comparison of the conditions of tourist villages and non-tourist villages seen from the output of tourist village development achievements (Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Developing Village Index (DVI)), and (c) the influence of input factors on output factors with the status of tourist villages as a moderating variable. This research seeks to examine the area of villages in the Central Java Province, with 8562 villages focusing on 384 tourist villages and 8178 non-tourist villages. The analytical methods used to answer the objectives of this research are Geographic Information System (GIS), Mann–Whitney test (U test), and Partial Least Square (PLS) analysis. The existence of tourist villages in general can have a positive impact in increasing attractiveness, amenities, and SDGs. These findings prove that the existence of a tourist village is able to support the achievement of the Village SDGs. This is in accordance with previous studies, which found that tourism development can have a positive effect on village economic conditions. In terms of accessibility, there is no significant difference between tourist villages and non-tourism villages because currently the development of accessibility infrastructure in rural areas is evenly distributed, not only in tourist villages but in all villages. As for DVI, the existence of tourist villages has not been able to encourage the achievement of DVI because there are many elements that make up DVI not only aspects of attractiveness, accessibility and amenities but also elements of social, economic and environmental resilience. Full article

Digital transformation has become a notorious topic in the financial sector, as its implementation brings about a positive change in the user experience. Its relevance is seen in how scientists study it from different points of view, while it attracts the interest of financial institutions, as the understanding resulting from the research can improve the implementation of plans in the new digital era. Therefore, the objective of this study is to determine the impact of digital transformation on consumer behaviour in the financial sector. A quantitative explanatory level approach was used. The study population was finite, consisting of bank customers, considering a simple random probability sample of 385. The technique used was the survey and a questionnaire as a validated and reliable instrument. Digital transformation has been shown to have a significant impact on consumer behaviour in the financial sector, tested by Chi-square and ordinal logistic regression (χ² = 0.000 < 0.05; Wald coefficient = 29.162 = 0.000; Nagelkerke’s R² = 0.381), confirming that consumer behaviour is driven by digitisation activities. This work highlights the importance of managing digital transformation as a mediator of business success and, within action plans, taking steps to improve customer service as a precursor to customer loyalty. Full article

The main aim of this paper is to examine the dynamic relationship between the three pillars of the economy: unemployment, inflation, and GDP in Ethiopia using the cross-wavelet transform (XWT) analysis, the multivariate Student-t generalized autoregressive score (GAS) model, and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. The dynamics between the three indicators were also investigated using the Toda–Yamamoto (TY) causality test. The empirical findings from the XWT method suggest a relationship between unemployment, inflation, and GDP, though the relationship varies over time and frequency. The estimation results from the multivariate Student-t GAS model show that the correlation between unemployment (overall, male, female, and youth) and inflation is highly significant, indicating that the correlation is dynamic. A dynamic relationship exists between GDP and unemployment, except for females and young people. The ARDL approach’s findings showed that unemployment significantly negatively impacted GDP. However, it was found that inflation significantly increased GDP. The general conclusion drawn from this study’s findings is that unemployment significantly affects GDP and inflation. Therefore, the government should aggressively implement policies to reduce unemployment, especially youth unemployment. Additionally, the administration must rehabilitate the country’s badly damaged economy and formalize a lasting cessation of hostilities between the federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Full article

This article forms an attempt to expand the ability of online search queries to predict initial jobless claims in the United States and further explore the intricacies of Google Trends. In contrast to researchers who used only a small number of search queries or limited themselves to job agency explorations, we incorporated keywords from the following six dimensions of Google Trends searches: job search, benefits, and application; mental health; violence and abuse; leisure search; consumption and lifestyle; and disasters. We also propose the use of keyword optimization, dimension reduction techniques, and long-short memory neural networks to predict future initial claims changes. The findings suggest that including Google Trends keywords from other dimensions than job search leads to the improved forecasting of errors; however, the relationship between jobless claims and specific Google keywords is unstable in relation to time. Full article

Today, the replacement of the ageing agricultural population is a global challenge in many food-producing countries. This article aims to provide an overview of generational change in agriculture based on the literature in international economics published in recent years, using a systematic review of the scientific literature. Research has identified several factors as barriers to agricultural generational change. Young people are less motivated to take over family farms. Farming does not offer them sufficient income, and the working conditions are not ideal. Access to land is severely limited worldwide, and the market bargaining power of the younger generation is low. Administrative burdens are also a barrier to the generational renewal of farms. The effects of climate change also have the potential to discourage next-generation farmers. Financial support for generational change in agriculture could be one solution to all these problems. Furthermore, generational change can be enhanced by the modernization of farms, providing farmers with access to land, and making a positive difference to their income, all of which will increase the motivation of young farmers. Full article