Determinants of Women’s Political Participation in Fragile African States: A Macro-Level Analysis

Abstract

Women’s political participation and representation is an important requirement for gender equality and achieving a truly democratic society. As provided in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, women and men have an equal right to civic and political rights. When women are involved in politics, communities move towards gender equality, which ensures that various voices are heard in governance and policy-making. This study was rooted in the fact that many African women continue to face repression, with several societies constraining their capability to contribute fully within political and social domains. The study employed secondary quantitative data to achieve its objective. Panel data for 17 countries with a poor track record on women’s rights and ever-declining rates on the Women’s Development Index were used by the study. A Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) panel technique was used for estimation purposes. The results showed that economic growth, participatory democracy, freedom of expression, globalisation and clean elections have a positive relationship with women’s political participation. This entails that these factors contribute to more political participation for women. The study recommends that in order to enhance women’s political participation, governments and civil society should strengthen by institutionalising inclusive decision-making processes at all levels.

1. Introduction

Women’s political participation and representation is one of the prerequisites towards gender equality and having a completely democratic society (UN Women 2025; World Bank 2024; Robinson and James 2026). As enshrined in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, both women and men are entitled to equal political and civil rights (Brechenmacher and Hubbard 2020). Political spheres have traditionally been dominated by men, and women have been generally excluded from political leadership. The absence of women from political life and leadership positions undermined democracy and women’s empowerment (Inter Parliamentary Union 1999; UN 2006; Baker and Rodrigues-Sherley 2022; Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights 2025). This has violated their rights and deprived society of their potential capability. The United Nations (UN 2024a) understands that full women participation in the political discourse is an essential right fundamental to gender equality. This explains why the fifth target under SDG 5 focuses on guaranteeing women’s full and active engagement and equal access to leadership in political, social and economic circles. Filho cited in Ernst et al. (2024) confirms that fifth target under SDG 5 strives to ensure women’s equal involvement in decision-making processes and their access to leadership in traditionally male-dominated domains.

The inclusion of women in public and political processes is an important element of a well-functioning democracy (Commonwealth Secretariat 2024; UN Women 2026). Democracy is fundamental undermined if it does not allow the involvement of women in the political spheres. Participatory democracy creates a conducive atmosphere for women’s political participation, influence in policy and law making, as well as the promotion of equal opportunities (Mlambo-Ngcuka 2023 quoted in Fokazi 2023). For democracy to be complete, everyone who needs to make a decision and participate in decision making should be able to do so freely. Democracy extends beyond multiparty system, credible elections and responsible governance structures; it is also grounded in human rights and citizen participation including women and other marginalised groups (Netherlands Institute of Multi-Party Democracy 2020). It can thus be said that a democratic system cannot be attained without gender equality (UNDP 2024). Former US Vice President, Kamala Harris, also stated that “the status of women is the status of democracy” (US Government 2023).

Political frameworks of democracy grounded in the rule of law provide equal political rights to all citizens. This permits all sectors of society, including women, to creäte their political agency both as voters and as political representatives (Ghosh 2024). The participation of women in political activities is a crucial factor in attaining an inclusive democracy, and women must be given the opportunity to exercise their political rights (Jacob 2023; Sokani 2025). Women’s contribution in political processes results in more inclusive decision making, ensures various opinions are heard, and diverse solutions are created (Mlambo-Ngcuka cited in Rodriguez 2020). Since electoral politics is one of the main paths for the holistic empowerment of women, the involvement of women as voters, political representatives, and public figures has been a significant step to alleviate systematic exclusion and side-lining of women in the political arena (Ghosh 2024). Women’s full involvement and leadership in political spheres are fundamental to achieving democracy. However, women are still insufficiently represented at all stages of decision-making globally and that realising gender equality in political circles remains distant (UN Women 2024; Abulkheir 2026).

Women are still marginalised in leadership around the world, with the number of female heads of state or government increasing from 12 to 21 over 20 years and one in four members of lower or single houses of parliament across the world are women (Ghosh 2024; Robinson 2024; Hatte et al. 2025; Mehnpaine 2026). This serves to demonstrate that political representation and gender disparity in participation is still a pressing issue (Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe 2023; Herre 2024). The UNDP (2024) and Robinson and James (2025) stress that equality participation has been moving at a regrettably sluggish pace. A number of challenges still deter women from participating in politics. From structural marginalisation and gender violence to enactment of gender-blind policies, women are confronted with numerous political participation barriers in their countries’ political systems (USAID 2016). Enabling political participation by women and bridging political participation barriers is vital to gender equality and women’s empowerment.

Africa has had 22 women heads of government since the 1970s in all 17 countries, which amounts to 32% of Africa’s 55 nations having a female head of state (Bebington 2024; Chikwanha and Moyo 2025). While it is an impressive reality that women have reached the highest political positions, this by itself is an unreliable measure of women’s political engagement (Ble and Balley 2023; Bebington 2024; Tambe and Jormfeldt 2024). There are numerous nations on the continent that still struggle with very severe challenges regarding equal political representation. If the current trajectory persists, gender equality in senior leadership positions of power will not be realised for 130 more years (Nkoa et al. 2023; UN Women 2025). This shows that a lot still needs to be done to dismantle the structural and societal hurdles that prevent women from participating in political activities and assuming political positions. It highlights the urgent need for intentional reforms and the creation of inclusive environments that not only empower women but also challenge the status quo that perpetuates inequality.

In Africa, strong political leadership and far-reaching policy reforms are required to dismantle deep rooted systematic barriers to attaining gender equality and full participation of women in politics. Gender equality is an issue of broad coverage and should be included in national policies and institutional leadership (UN 2024b). It is not just an issue of moral rectitude to seek gender equality in the political arena, but a foundation for a rich, balanced, and inclusive society. Against this background, this research examines the determinants of women’s political participation in African countries. The study sought to answer the following research question: what macro-level factors influence women’s political participation? In order to answer this question, the study utilised panel data of 17 African countries which have a weak record on women’s rights and consistently low scores on the Women’s Development Index, making them suitable for analysing the factors that influence women’s political participation.

2. Literature Review

2.1. Theoretical Framework

2.1.1. Economic Modernity Theory

Verba et al. (1978) points out that women’s political participation is expected to rise as states undergo modernisation. Przeworski and Limongi (1997), cited in Nawaz et al. (2022), also supported the notion that modernization improves political participation. Modernisation results in increased education and urbanisation levels, improvement in the general welfare, and the development of the welfare state. It was argued that economic development results in the nourishment of democracies. It was also believed that modernization would be emancipatory for women as economic development, advancements in technology and modern standards would weaken the patriarchy of traditional society providing women with increased access to economic resources (Debnarayan 2006; Nawaz et al. 2022). Greater access to socioeconomic resources enhances women’s opportunities of professional growth, establishing a larger source of qualified women for authoritative positions such as political leadership. However, in some developing countries, married women usually possess little power over the management of their own finances due to the patriarchal nature of the households in developing countries (Perrin and Hyland 2023; Ashraf and Jepsen 2024; Amoak et al. 2025; Nabimanya et al. 2025). This contests the economic-modernisation viewpoint, which accepts that economic development improves women’s status.

2.1.2. Cultural Modernity Theory

The central point is that people are shaped into certain political inclinations by social and cultural structures (Inglehart and Welzel 2005). In other words, social equality is construed by cultural norms. These cultural norms can be influenced by various factors. One avenue that has contributed to this change is cultural modernity. The evolving aspects of modernity have altered and moulded traditional societal relationships. Modernity has triggered significant changes in cultural, traditional, and societal views regarding women (Matland 1998; Phillips 2018). This has resulted in the alteration of gender roles and supporting the development of democratic establishments. Contemporary Western systems of teaching and learning have emancipated some African women from cultural constrictions that previously disadvantaged them of their rights and subjected them to male dominance (Bitrus 2017; Ngohengo 2021). As a result, African women are progressively assertive and engaged in advocating for their rights both in familial environments and in public life (UNDP 2025). Cultural transformation significantly impacts societies by making them receptive to changing traditional dispositions, thereby empowering women to have access to political offices. However, in some African societies, efforts to eliminate cultural practices are often met with suspicion or hostility from communities, because Africans generally believe that these are their valuable, traditional practices (Msuya 2020).

2.1.3. Human Rights-Based Approach

The human rights-based approach (HRBA) is a normative framework for human development that is prescriptively grounded on universal human rights values (Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights 2014; UNSG 2025). It seeks to ensure that public policies and actions actively foster and promote human rights. This framework stresses the significance of equipping individuals to assert their rights while demanding public officials to be accountable for their actions. Symington (2002) gender is not an “add-on”; equality and non-discrimination are fundamental principles of human rights and are enshrined in many conventions. It also affirms that both men and women are equally entitled to the enjoyment and exercise of human rights and fundamental freedoms in the economic, social, political and civic spheres (Goonesekere 2025). Critical areas, such as political participation and provision to equal opportunities in public life, and in the professions are fundamental to a human rights-based approach.

2.1.4. Social Learning Theory

The social learning theory claims that a person’s behaviours in a given situation are built on their beliefs, and individuals learn by observing others (Bandura 1971). From an early age, individuals are susceptible to influence and tend to emulate the behaviours of those around them. This theory states that infants learn gender roles through observing, imitation, and social reinforcement. Since the theory relies on observational learning and social interaction to change behaviour, it would be logical to assume these same forces play a role in political behaviour (Olsson 2023). Observational learning applies to political participation because people obtain political behaviours by observing others, especially individuals that a person esteems. Therefore, observing political behaviour in different forms, at home and in the society, can influence the likelihood of the learner to either participate or choose not to participate in political activities themselves. In many households, gendered expectations may result in daughters receiving less political socialisation, establishing inequalities in political ambition. This can restrain women’s political participation by restricting their exposure to political behaviour and limiting political goals from an early age.

2.2. Empirical Literature

2.2.1. Gender Socialisation

Gender socialisation is one of the most important determinants of women’s political participation. Gender socialisation is the process of a person learning and internalising the norms, behaviours, and roles that a particular society expects of their gender (Kretchmar 2023). From an early age, individuals are exposed to community messages about gender roles, and this shapes their behaviours, interests, and sense of self. An individual adopts societal gender norms from their family, social circles, and the media. One example of gender socialisation is providing material portraying males in management positions and females in supportive roles (Sherrell 2024). Gender socialisation is usually instigated by parents, the media and the education system (Kågesten et al. 2016; Sherrell 2024; Amin et al. 2018; Bos et al. 2022).

Parents are deemed influential socialising actors for the development of teenagers’ political behaviour and continue to exert influence into adulthood and beyond (Jennings et al. 2009; Van Ditmars 2022). The interaction between gender socialisation and political socialisation give rise to what is known as gendered political socialisation, wherein girls believe that political participation contradicts their outlined gender roles (Bos et al. 2022). This process may convey to infants the message that boys are well-matched with political positions and that girls are not. The socialisation theory of political behaviour posits that a person’s political views and behaviours are modelled by the socialisation process they undergo (Ferdoos and Jamaiudin 2023). Societal norms pertaining to gender roles can influence the political engagement of individuals.

2.2.2. Culture and Norms

Cultural and social norms also significantly hinder women’s political participation (Li 2024; Pan et al. 2024; Mihowa 2025). In numerous societies, traditional gender roles and stereotypes reinforce the belief that politics is a domain meant for men. These practices can inhibit women from working toward political careers and can also sway voters’ views, resulting in biased preferences against female contenders (Lavanya 2024). Gender customs weaken women’s influence in public domains, which triggers opposition to women’s political control. The customs that exclude women from politics also dictate how women ought to act and behave, creating restrictions to their involvement in political and civil life (George 2019). Political change is meaningless if there is no shift in how men view women, and political transformation might be limited if there is no social change. Therefore, driving social change can lay the foundation for political transformation, including equal women’s political participation (Nwankwor 2022).

2.2.3. Lack of Party Support

Party support is a key factor for female candidates, whereas the absence of support and discrimination can damage a woman’s campaign (Owuor 2021). Political party backing can be the determinative element in shaping a candidate’s electoral breakthrough. Political parties are the most established instrument for selecting and deploying candidates for political office (SADC 2023). Hence, candidates participating in politics normally join political parties hoping that they will help achieve their political goals. However, women have been conventionally perceived by the male dominated system as the participants of private life and consequently, the political environment is not favourable for their participation. Hence, several political parties around the world still accept that women have a less significant chance of holding political office (Doost and Ortay 2017; Lavanya 2024). This shows that the political processes are often designed in ways that do not accommodate or support the participation of women. However, women serve active and significant responsibilities in lobbying and galvanising support for their political parties, yet they infrequently hold leadership positions in these organisations (Sindhuja and Murugan 2017).

2.2.4. Lack of Confidence

A major barrier for many women is lack of capacity and confidence to work within a male-controlled political atmosphere, often amid discrimination or elimination by male colleagues (Castillejo 2009; Ibarra et al. 2013; Brechenmacher and Hubbard 2020; Galizzi et al. 2024). Lack of confidence, fuelled by the hostile nature of politics, is one of the primary causes for women’s under-representation in political establishments (Sindhuja and Murugan 2017). Through confidence and dedication women can occupy the highest positions in the political arena. While women generally show strong participation in the voting process, they have less confidence to actively occupy leadership roles in politics. Some studies have found that women are less interested in politics and display lower levels of internal political efficacy (Gothreau 2020).

2.2.5. Political Violence

Political violence is a barrier to women’s participation and representation in politics (Sousa 2013; Jallah et al. 2021; EU Parliament 2024; Chigulu 2026). Violence fosters a dangerous atmosphere for aspirant candidates to run for office without fear. Politics has also conventionally been regarded as a patriarchal domain and the constructed image of politics has portrayed it as a “dirty” game that must be forbidden for women (SAP International 2007). Political violence infringes human rights, obstructs democracy from thriving, and destabilises the relationships of equality, openness, and trust upon which strong governments are established (Bardall et al. 2020). In many African countries, politics is often stained by violence, harassment and oppression to determine desired political results (SADC 2023). Political violence is aimed at generating fear and can make a candidate withdraw from the political domain altogether (Martin 2020). Political violence, therefore, can weaken women’s capability to engage with, and have confidence in, social and political life by decreasing their inclination to participate in political activities.

2.2.6. Spending More Time Performing Unpaid Labour

Women find it difficult to engage in politics due to inadequate time available to them because of their twofold roles in the productive and reproductive domains (Makama 2013). While childcare does not influence men’s political interest, this often leads women to place family care above other interests, including political participation (Verba et al. cited in Pensiero and Janmaat 2024). Women’s investment in family care tend to constrain their engagement in political activities (Taylor 2016; Lavanya 2024). Grechyna (2022) found that family care lowers the political engagement of women while not substantially changing that of men. Balancing the demands of a political career with the expectations of family life presents a unique set of obstacles, particularly for women. The unpredictable schedules and responsibilities of a political career, including evening meetings, weekend events, and emergency sessions, can conflict (Li 2024). Inadequate childcare support compounds the challenges faced by women in politics, as the disproportionate responsibility for caregiving often forces women to juggle family duties with professional aspirations, deterring many capable women from pursuing political careers.

2.2.7. Education

Education is identified as one of the most important causes of the problem that prevents women’s voices from being heard in government. By equipping individuals with the information to make sense of politics and the know-how to partake in political activities, education is an important factor that influences political participation (Hoskins et al. 2016; Green and Pensiero 2016; Pensiero and Janmaat 2024). Education improves the skills necessary for political engagement and political knowledge, which serves as the fundamental mechanisms that promote political participation (Persson 2015). Educated citizens are more likely to engage in political discussions, express their opinions on public issues, and advocate for policy changes. This sense of efficacy encourages sustained political participation and promotes a culture of civic responsibility within communities (Kattimani 2012). Where women are educated and empowered, economies are more productive and stronger (Ban Ki-Moon cited in UN 2010).

2.2.8. Gender Digital Divide and Online Abuse

Technology and gender equality are recognised as significant facilitators for the SDGs, yet there is a lack of dedication to closing the gender digital gap (Molinier 2024). Digital technologies can enable or constrain women’s equal participation in political activities, as well as in the social space. Technology allows women politicians to market their political ideas and extend their reach to hard-to-reach areas. However, female politicians can get trolled by prearranged “troll armies” who seek to stifle, discredit and discourage women from political participation (Zhang et al. 2004; International IDEA 2023). Although online abuse is undoubtedly not restricted to women in the public sphere, women politicians face excessive levels of harassment and abuse on online platforms. It should be noted that although male politicians also face online harassment (including death threats), the harassment they experience is not committed against them merely on account of their gender (O’Connell and Ramshaw 2018).

2.2.9. Poor Institutions

Institutional actors are key in promoting and facilitating women’s participation in politics (Alexander and Welzel 2011; Jallah et al. 2021). Institutions can enact legislations and frameworks that facilitate women’s political participation. Institutions can also promote accountability structures and can ensure fair processes that enable equality in social and political spheres. Furthermore, institutions can foster enforcement mechanisms that transform public perceptions toward women’s political participation. The success of gender-sensitive laws is often weakened by insufficient enforcement mechanisms. In many regions, women’s limited political clout fuels a self-perpetuating cycle of restricted legal rights and reduced economic empowerment (World Bank 2024; Muga-Odumbe 2026).

2.2.10. Presence/Absence of Non-Social Movements

Importantly, women’s political equality is more than participation and representation in politics. It also means that women enjoy civil liberties, such as the freedom of movement, can fully participate in civil society, and have the same political power (Fdhil 2014; Michalko et al. 2024). Although nonviolent social movements typically do not participate in electoral politics, they sometimes institutionalise as political parties in periods of political rupture. In other cases, movements or parts of movements transform into parties because they come to view this as the best strategy for advancing their goals (Hubbard 2023; Zunes 2022).

3. Materials and Methods

3.1. Data Sources

The study uses secondary quantitative data to achieve its objective. The study utilised panel data of 17 African countries (Benin, Burkina Faso, Central African Republic, Chad, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Eritrea, Gambia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sudan and Togo) over the period 1990–2023. The countries were selected due to their poor track record on women’s issues (human rights, women health, etc.) and low scores on the Women’s Development Index. Data was sourced from the World Bank. There were no country-level differences in the data compilation process because the dataset is macro in nature, and the indicators are measured consistently to guarantee comparability. Furthermore, there were no missing values for any of the variables, and the panel was completely balanced.

3.2. Estimation Procedure

This study builds on Bellani and Hidalgo-Hidalgo (2025) who empirically tested the relationship between women’s education and their political representation. This study modifies Bellani and Hidalgo-Hidalgo (2025) and come with the following model:

WPP = f (GDP, PS, PDI, FOE, GI, UP, FS, EC)

(1)

where WPP is women’s political participation, GDP is gross domestic product, PS is political stability, PDI represents Participatory Democratic Index, FOE is freedom of expression, GI is the Globalisation Index, UP is urban population, FS is fragile state, CE is the Clean Elections Index. The descriptions of these variables are presented in

Table 1. Description of variables.

Variable Symbol	Variable Definition	Source of Data
WPP	Women’s Political Participation. Proportion of seats held by women in national parliaments (%)	World Bank
GDP	Gross Domestic Product. Gross domestic product is the total income earned through the production of goods and services in an economic territory during an accounting period	World Bank
PS	Political Stability. It measures perceptions of the likelihood of political instability and/or politically motivated violence, including terrorism	World Bank
PDI	Participatory Democratic Index. This captures the extent of voting rights, freedoms of association, and citizens being able to engage in regional and local government, civil society organisations, and direct democracy.	World Bank
FOE	Freedom of Expression. This measures the extent to which governments respect press and media freedom, the freedom of ordinary people to discuss political matters at home and in the public sphere, as well as the freedom of academic and cultural expression	World Bank
GI	Globalisation Index. It measures the economic, social and political dimensions of globalisation	World Bank
UP	Urban Population. Urban population refers to people living in urban areas as defined by national statistical offices.	World Bank
FS	Fragile State. The Fragile States Index measures the vulnerability in pre-conflict, active conflict and post-conflict situations. The Fragile States Index reflects a country’s ability to maintain stability.	Fund For Peace
EC	Clean Elections Index. The Clean Elections Index assesses the extent to which national elections are conducted without fraud, systematic irregularities, government intimidation	World Bank

.

3.3. Estimation Techniques

This study employed the System-Generalized Method of Moments (S-GMM) method to estimate its model. The generalised specifications of the System–GMM at a level and after the first difference are as follows:

$${WPP}_{it}= {\beta }_1{WPP}_{i,t-1}+ {\beta }_2{X}_{i,t}+ {\phi }_{it}+ {\mu }_{i,t}$$

(2)

In Equation (1) WPP represents women’s political participation, X represents all explanatory variables, and $\phi$ denotes the time-invariant country-specific effects. The difference form of Equation (1) is as follows:

$${WPP}_{it}- {WPP}_{it-1}= {\beta }_1({WPP}_{i,t-1}-{WPP}_{it-1})+ {\beta }_2{X}_{i,t}+({\phi }_{it}-{\phi }_{it-1})+({\mu }_{i,t}- {\mu }_{i,t-1})$$

(3)

To account for possible endogeneity between the explanatory variables $X_{i,t}$ and the dependent variable ${WPP}_{it}$, the equation is estimated using as instruments the lagged values of the left- and right-hand side variables in levels (Wang and Bellemare 2020). This estimator often referred to as the “difference” GMM estimator differences the data first and then uses lagged values of the endogenous variables as instruments. However, the weakness of this approach is that lagged levels serve as poor instruments for first differences. In order to address this, Blundell and Bond (1998) proposed a more efficient estimator, the “system” GMM estimator, which mitigates the poor instruments problem by using additional moment conditions (Asiedu 2013). With the S-GMM the original levels equation with a suitable lagged first difference is used as an instrument and the first difference equation with a suitable lagged level is used as an instrument. This study used the System-GMM as its primary estimation technique and the Difference GMM estimator as a secondary estimator.

4. Results

This section presents and discusses the results that were obtained from the regression analysis. The section first discusses the preliminary statistics. These are important as they can give insight into the data properties. After the preliminary statistics, the main results that were obtained from the GMM are presented and discussed.

4.1. Preliminary Statistics

Table 2. Descriptive statistics.

	WPP	GDP	PS	PDI	FOE	GI	UP	FS	CE
Mean	0.548	7.773	1.011	0.191	0.557	39.33	35.78	95.80	0.254
Maximum	0.88	109.27	1.05	0.482	0.925	54.88	64.47	114.9	0.794
Minimum	0.118	0.13	−3.31	0.009	0.015	19.2	13.81	72	0.121
Std. Dev	0.198	11.55	0.932	0.111	0.252	7.93	10.28	11.07	0.224
Observations	578	578	578	578	578	578	578	578	578

presents the summary statistics in terms of the basic descriptive statics such as mean, the observation count, and other statistics that show the characteristics of the data used in the study.

Table 2 also shows that there were 578 observations in this study. The statistics also show that there was not much variation or fluctuations in that data, as shown by the fairly low standard deviations values.

Table 3. Correlation matrix.

	GDP	PS	PDI	FOE	GI	UP	FS	CE
GDP	1.000
PS	−0.4290	1.0000
PDI	−0.1621	0.5419	1.0000
FOE	−0.2982	0.3932	0.6997	1.0000
GI	0.0746	0.5624	0.5128	0.4350	1.0000
UP	−0.1777	0.2504	−0.0250	−0.0015	0.2512	1.0000
FS	0.3661	−0.6137	−0.5801	−0.4517	−0.6394	−0.3209	1.0000
CE	−0.2287	0.6310	0.5736	0.7141	0.5248	0.1287	−0.6349	1.0000

provides brief summary statistics of the correlation test.

The correlation matrix reveals that the explanatory variables did not have strong associations amongst each other. The only variables that seemed to show a moderate connection were FOE and CE (0.7141). This association was moderate but not strong enough to warrant a significant association. A correlation above 0.8 is usually regarded problematic as it may signal the presence of multicollinearity.

4.2. Presentation of Main Findings

The estimation was performed using a System GMM and a Difference GMM.

Table 4. Generalized Method of Moments results (dependent variable: WPP).

Variable	S-GMM	D-GMM
GDP	0.1051 ** (0.03747)	0.32338 *** (0.01940)
PS	0.7969 (0.7315)	1.7339 ** (0.69329)
PDI	0.70693 *** (0.26621)	0.023404 ** (0.00236)
FOE	0.25252 *** (0.02092)	0.05963 *** (0.00647)
GI	0.107791 *** (0.02744)	0.36287 *** (0.07988)
UP	−0.12211 *** (0.03632)	0.077610 (0.07114)
FS	0.01795 (0.05884)	0.69938 (3.7920)
CE	0.26596 *** (0.01929)	0.280004 *** (0.08767)
Observations Sargen test (p-value)	561 0.627	561 0.467

Note 1: GDP is gross domestic product, PS is political stability, PDI represents Participatory Democratic Index, FOE is freedom of expression, GI is Globalisation Index, UP is urban population, FS is fragile state, CE is Clean Elections Index. Note 2: Standard errors in parentheses. *** p < 0.01, ** p < 0.05.

presents findings from the naive estimation of Equation (1). Column (1) shows estimates from the System GMM and columns (2) shows the Difference GMM results.

Table 4 reports the estimated System GMM (column (1)) and the Difference GMM (column 2). The D-GMM may be biased as noted by Roodman (2009) and as a result, the S-GMM is used as the most preferred estimator for this study. The discussion of the results will be based on column 1 (S-GMM), and column 2 (D-GMM) will be used for comparison.

The empirical results indicate that the coefficient for GDP is positive for both Model 1 and Model 2. This implies that economic growth contributes to more women’s political participation. The analysis also indicates that the coefficient for political stability (PS) is positive but insignificant at a 5% level of significance. However, the result is positive in column 2 (D-GMM). The fact the result is insignificant is surprising because political stability should promote a conducive environment for political participation. The empirical results also indicate that the coefficient for PDI is positive for both S-GMM and D-GMM. This shows that when participatory democracy increases, women’s political participation also increases. The findings further indicate that the coefficient for FOE is positive for both S-GMM and D-GMM. This finding suggests that when freedom of expression improves, there will be more women’s political representation.

The coefficient for GI is positive for both S-GMM and D-GMM. This shows that as the levels of globalisation rise, women’s political participation increases. The Globalisation Index was used as a proxy for social global modernisation. The coefficient for UP is negative for Model 1 but insignificant for Model 2. This result is surprising because urban populations are more likely to engage in politics as compared to rural populations. The empirical results indicate that the coefficient for FS is insignificant for both S-GMM and D-GMM. This suggests that the fragility status of a country does not really affect women’s political participation. The empirical results indicate that the coefficient for CE is positive for both S-GMM and D-GMM. This shows when there are clean elections, women are likely to participate in the political processes.

4.3. Diagnostic Tests

The diagnostic tests were performed, and the results are displayed in

Table 5. Sargen and Hansen Tests.

Sargen Test of Overid. Restrictions	Chi2(81)	Prob > chi2 = 0.658
Hansen Test of overid. restrictions	Chi2(61)	Prob > chi2 = 0.532

and

Table 6. Arellano–Bond test (Model 1).

Arellano–Bond test for AR(1) in first differences	z = −2.03	Pr > z = 0.042
Arellano–Bond test for AR(2) in first differences	z = −1.49	Pr > z = 0.136

.

The tests show that the instruments used in the model were valid. Both p-values from the Sargen and Hansen tests were insignificant. This shows that the instruments that were used were valid.

AR(1) has a p-value that is significant. This is expected and consequently the result generally does not imply a model misspecification (Kiviet et al. 2017). AR(2) has a p-value which is insignificant. This shows that the instruments that were used were valid and it can thus be said that the model passed the necessary robustness tests.

4.4. Discussion of Results

The estimated effect of economic growth suggests that economic conditions are a key to promoting women’s political participation. The positive results obtained in this study, suggests that economic growth contributes to more women’s political participation. Following Alexander and Welzel (2007), GDP was used to measure economic modernity. In modernising societies, the individual takes an important role, taking precedence over the family and community (Ganiyeva 2022). In this case, an individual’s political choices and decision become more personal and autonomous, rather than following societal or familial political expectations. With modernisation, economic conditions become the object and the cause of political participation (Babich et al. 2017; Brayden and Carberry 2022). Economic conditions are foundational to the depth and breadth of formal political participation, such as voting, the electoral process, and lobbying. Modernisation drives economic development and this, in turn, promotes democratic elements such as governance and civic participation in decision-making. The essential conditions for the development of strong democratic governance, in the present day, were laid by earlier decades of modernisation and socio-economic transformation (Lipset, cited in Johansson 2019). Socio-economic transformation presents a lot of opportunities for women. Greater access to socioeconomic resources enhances women’s opportunities of professional growth, establishing a larger source of qualified women for authoritative positions such as political leadership.

Surprisingly, political stability (PS) does not influence women’s political participation. This shows that political stability may not be a determinant of women’s political participation in the selected countries. The fact the results is insignificant is unanticipated because political stability should promote a conducive environment for political participation. A stable political climate is essential for upholding democratic principles and ensuring citizen participation in governance, which is fundamental to the legitimacy of any political system. Research shows that the status of women and the stability of nations are inextricably linked, and that societies that foster gender discrimination and allow oppressive gender norms to flourish are more likely to be unstable (US Government 2023). Political stability is a vital precondition for the emergence of political participation, free and democratic elections and inclusive establishments. Similarly, the advent of political turmoil or conflict is considered as posing a deep risk to the existence of democratic rule (Veenendaal 2021).

However, the results also need to be interpreted with caution. Violent conflicts and conditions of instability worsen pre-prevailing patterns of discrimination against women and girls, placing them at high risks of infringements of their human rights (Salehyan and Kristian 2006; Todd 2024; OHCHR 2025). Violent conflict gives rise to higher levels of gender-based violence against women and girls, forced migration, torture, sexual violence and forced marriage. When countries emerging from violence and conflict begin to stabilise, women often remain traumatised and fearful of engaging in political activities. As a result, they refrain from participating in political activities, despite the improvements in stability. Kumari et al. (2014) study finds that more than 60 per cent of women do not participate in politics due to fear of violence. Political violence can have an effect on people’s actions even after formal peace is declared (Niaz and Tariq 2020; Dumke et al. 2021; Kelly et al. 2021).

Participatory democracy was seen to be positively influencing women’s political participation. This shows that when participatory democracy increases, women’s political participation also increases. These results are consistent with conventional wisdom; the active participation of citizens is the lifeblood of any functioning democracy. For participatory democracy to function, individual citizens must be able to take part in political decisions that have an effect on their lives (Trappett 2023). The goal of participatory democracy is to ensure that citizens are not only represented by political representatives but are able to partake in the decision-making process. However, critics argue that while participatory democrats focus on ensuring the participation of individual citizens, masculine gender constructs are embedded into every sphere of public participation (P. H. Collins 2017). This acts as a hidden barrier to the full participation of women in politics. There is, therefore, a need for a cultural shift in democratic institutions towards the inclusion of women in politics, and respect for the relevance of women’s political views. Findings suggest that most women develop three types of skills through engagement in participatory mechanisms: administrative, technical and political (Lupien 2022).

The findings suggest that when freedom of expression improves, there will be more women’s political representation. Freedom of expression is the ability to actively participate in political life, speak and have one’s political and social views heard. Participation rights are inseparably linked to other human rights such as the rights to peaceful assembly and association, freedom of opinion and expression (Knutsen 2015; OHCHR 2023). Inclusive democracy underscores the role of citizen checks, through freely expressing themselves, in helping to ensure that the objectives pursued by officials are in agreement with the interests that ordinary citizens value the most (Blasi 2011). If citizens could not speak openly about the policies and actions of government, then they would have no effective way to participate in the democratic process or protest when they believed governmental behaviour threatened their freedom (Annenberg Public Policy Center 2025). Freedom of expression is the core foundation of democracy, promoting open debate, the appropriate consideration of various interests and viewpoints, and the negotiation and compromise essential for consensual policy decisions (Franks 2022; Freedom House 2025). Free speech strengthens other essential rights such as freedom of assembly, which citizens exert to shape public decision-making by participating in demonstrations, protests or campaigns (Brooks 2022).

An important finding is the role of globalisation is influencing women’s political participation. This shows that as the levels of globalisation rise, women’s political participation increases. The Globalisation Index was used as a proxy for social global modernisation. The dissemination of ideas and information across the electronic media has widened cultural horizons and enabled people around the globe to challenge autocratic rulers and promote the cause of human rights and democracy (Daalder and Lindsay 2003). Potrafke and Ursprung (2012) indicates that globalisation has brought about numerous structural changes towards gender equality in developing countries. Social globalisation facilitates the exchange of best practices for advancing gender equality and women’s empowerment (Husain et al. 2024). Greater globalisation creates opportunities for greater women’s representation (Clayton and Zetterberg 2018). Bell et al. (2019) argues that social globalisation can help to expand the knowledge of global human rights, making it easier to recognise human rights violations that women are often the target of.

In the socio-political spheres, globalisation has fostered the rise of global feminist actions and systems that promote women’s rights, gender equality, and the eradication of gender-based violence (True 2010). Despite its benefits, it has faced some resistance. Aprajita and Singh (2025) notes that globalisation has sometimes brought about tensions between global principles and local customs, with some societies resisting foreign-imposed notions of women’s empowerment. As global standards and principles are disseminated, there is often compulsion on societies to follow global standards of gender equality. While globalisation can facilitate positive transformation in some situations, it can also result in a cultural resistance (Rudman and Fairchild 2004). It is, therefore, essential to systematically evaluate the gender effect of change so that the aim of gender equality and the growth of human capabilities are not forfeited. Improved access to information, primarily through globalised technological advancements, enables countries to absorb information about social customs in foreign places, which can transform societal perceptions and encourage the acceptance of more egalitarian attitudes (World Bank 2011). Ben-Nun Bloom et al. (2021) states that social globalisation is a significant factor in improving gender equality. Moreover, there is a ‘role model effect’ which suggests that exposure to women in leadership positions boosts the level and quality of women’s political participation (Deininger et al. 2014).

The empirical results indicated that urban population negatively influence women’s political participation. This result is surprising because urban populations are more likely to engage in politics as compared to rural populations. There is a disparity between urban and rural dwellers, with urban dwellers having more socio-economic and political opportunities and freedoms (Dhamija et al. 2023). Tacoli and Satterthwaite (2013) note that urban women are in a position to engage in paid employment outside the family, better access to social services, and face rigid social customs that define women as inferior to men. Furthermore, cities are hypothesised to facilitate democratisation by mobilising a greater demand for democracy, collective action and increased ‘civic capital’ (Glaeser and Steinberg 2016). Education is also a decisive factor in the rural-urban disparity. Low level of education among many rural women affects their competence of political participation and political efficiency (Huang 2018). However, Cheema et al. (2021) appear to clarify that rationale behind the result found in this study. Cheema et al. (2021) note that urban areas reduce women’s political participation compared to rural areas, particularly when women living in urban areas are doing much better on a range of important socioeconomic indicators.

The fragility status of a country does not really affect women’s political participation. Women living in fragile states are far more disempowered and susceptible to abuse, violence, and lack access to basic services. The heightened risk of gender-based violence in fragile and conflict-affected states makes women and girls even more vulnerable (Robleto-Gonzalez 2014) and this makes them not participate in politics (Hatte et al. 2025). However, it must be noted that the effectiveness of a state’s fragility is conditional on how women are involved in the reducing the fragility of the state. State fragility can be attributed, in part, to ineffective and non-inclusive governance. Gender disparities and the barring of women are often extremely entrenched in these settings, and both lead to and are worsened by poor governance (CARE Nederland 2018). On the other hand, participation by women in peace negotiations and reform processes has been seen to boast the likelihood that agreements will be reached and executed (Dudouet and Schädel 2021 cited in IMF 2023). The inability to put women at the centre of reconstruction processes is one of development’s greatest failures (Hudock 2017).

The empirical results indicate that clean elections are an important determinant for women’s political participation. This shows when there are clean elections, women are likely to participate in the political processes. Clean elections capture the spirit of what makes a governing system work (T. Collins 2025). Free and fair, and well administered elections are vital for an inclusive and robust democracy and are equally essential for inclusion and fairness. If electoral issues are not proactively addressed, women will not reach parity in elected office for quite some time (Institute for Women’s Policy Research 2020). Formal barriers include restrictive electoral laws, voter registration and candidate eligibility criteria, party rules limiting women’s participation, and limited access to resources for female candidates (Thalin 2024).

Elections serve as a key channel for establishing political power, yet violence against women during elections continue to pose a barrier to women achieving their political rights (UNDP 2018). Inclusive and democratic elections are an essential and vital component of sustained efforts to safeguard and promote human rights. Political hostilities and aggressive rivalry during elections can generate susceptibilities for women’s political participation and consequently, women refrain from taking part in political activities (Westminster Foundation for Democracy 2018). Given the acknowledged importance of both democratic elections, enhancing fairness and transparency in elections is essential to promoting women’s political participation and also advancing the equality of women.

5. Conclusions

Women’s political participation and representation is an important requirement for gender equality and achieving a truly democratic society. As enshrined in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, both women and men are entitled to equal political and civil rights. The inclusion of women in public and political processes is an important element of a well-functioning democracy. Democracy is fundamentally undermined if it does not allow the involvement of women in the political spheres. The results of this study showed that economic growth, participatory democracy, freedom of expression, globalisation and clean elections have a positive relationship with women’s political participation. This indicates that these factors play a role in strengthening women’s political participation. An increase in urban population was seen to be having a negative relationship with women’s political participation. This indicates that when urban population increases, women’s political participation decreases. The fragile state of a nation and political stability were seen to be not having a relationship with women’s political participation. In other words, they do not influence women’s political participation.

Some recommendations are drawn to enhance women’s political participation based on the empirical evidence of the study. Given that participatory democracy and freedom of expression were found to enhance women’s political participation, the establishment and consolidation of participatory democratic institutions ought to be a vital priority to African governments and policy makers. Bolstering all-encompassing governance systems that enable effective civic participation, particularly by women, provides a pathway to ensuring inclusive political participation. Many African governments have a record of suppressing freedom of expression, and it is recommended that governments guarantee freedom of expression, media autonomy and freedom to hold opinion for women, underrepresented groups and the public in general. Given the positive correlation between economic growth and women’s political participation, gender-sensitive perspectives must be incorporated in policies for economic growth. This entails enhancing women’s access employment opportunities, education and socio-economic services.

One limitation of this study is its reliance on secondary panel data. The analysis relied on secondary panel data, which may not fully capture informal and cultural factors shaping female political participation. Future research should incorporate qualitative factors in order to address this limitation. This will facilitate complementing the macro-level perspective of this current study with individual-level (micro) dynamics.