Abstract
The Haezendonck–Goovaerts (HG) risk measure defined on Orlicz spaces via the so-called normalised Young function is a direct generalisation of the Expected Shortfall risk measure. The HG measure is known to be a coherent one, thus making it more robust than some of the alternatives, such as Value-at-Risk, for aggregating and comparing risks, and at the same time more flexible for capital allocation problems, risk premium estimation, solvency assessment, and stress testing in insurance and finance. As random risk in practical applications is often assessed in a portfolio setting—a collection of insurance policies or financial assets, like stocks or bonds—we examine the situation in which the total portfolio risk is expressed as the sum of individual random risks. For this, we consider the sum of possibly dependent and non-identically distributed real-valued random variables with consistently varying distributions. Assuming that the collection follows the dependence structure, similar to the asymptotic independence, we obtain the asymptotic estimations of the HG risk measure for the sum when the confidence level tends to 1. The formulas presented in our work show that in the case where a portfolio of random losses contains consistently varying losses and the others are asymptotically negligible, it is sufficient for risk assessment to consider only the tails of those dominant losses.
Keywords:
sum of random variables; asymptotic independence; tail-moment; heavy tail; consistently varying distribution; Haezendonck–Goovaerts risk measure MSC:
91B05; 60F10; 91G15
1. Introduction
Risk measurement plays a central role in modern actuarial science, financial regulation, and quantitative risk management. As markets become increasingly complex and uncertain, the limitations of classical risk measures, such as variance, Value-at-Risk (VaR), and Expected Shortfall (ES), have become more apparent. In particular, widely used regulatory metrics often fail to adequately capture tail risk, lack desirable coherence properties, or provide insufficient flexibility to model risk preferences. For instance, it is well known that the VaR measure in general does not satisfy the sub-additivity axiom, and, as a result, fails to obey the diversification principle. Additionally, as it is defined as a certain percentile of the loss distribution, it does not account for the severity of losses beyond that percentile [1]. Therefore, it may underestimate risk in market stress situations under extreme asset price fluctuations [2]. These challenges have motivated the search for more robust and theoretically sound alternatives. One such alternative is the so-called Haezendonck–Goovaerts (HG) risk measure, which is defined in Section 1.6. The HG risk measure, like other risk measures, is a method to assess the amount of capital we should hold to protect ourselves against impending losses, taking into account the level of risk aversion. The HG risk measure is actually a family of risk measures that depend on the so-called Young function φ. Choosing another Young function yields a different version of this risk measure. The HG risk measure derived from the principles of premium calculation in [3] unifies economic intuition with strong mathematical foundations. According to the results of [4,5], the HG risk measure has many properties necessary for risk measurements. In particular, this measure belongs to the class of coherent risk measures in the sense of Artzner et al. [1], as it is monotonic, translation-invariant, sub-additive, and homogeneous, and, as a result, is a monetary and convex risk measure as in [6,7]. It is well known that the simplest case of HG risk measure is the Expected Shortfall (ES) (or, synonymously, Conditional Value-at-Risk or Tail Value-at-Risk or Conditional Tail Expectation, considered in detail in [8]. The ES risk measure can be obtained from the HG risk measure using the Young function φ(t) = t. Therefore, the HG risk measure is a direct generalisation of the ES risk measure.
The HG risk measure is particularly useful in actuarial science and financial risk management, where capturing heavy-tailed and extreme losses is essential. Its foundation in Orlicz functions allows flexible modelling of risk aversion and tail behavior, making it well suited for premium calculation, solvency assessment, and capital allocation. In particular, the flexibility to select the Young function, which characterises the behaviour of the measure, gives more control over the degree to which extreme losses influence the risk assessment. It is important to note that, despite being more theoretically grounded than some of the alternatives, the HG risk measure might be more challenging to implement in practice.
Tang and Yang in [9] provided a formula for calculating the HG risk measure when the Young function is a power function, see Theorem 3 below. However, in the same article, the authors mention that in the general case, an analytical formula for calculating the HG risk measure does not exist, since the calculation of the values of this measure is related to finding quantiles. In this case, the authors of the article [9] suggest using asymptotic formulas by writing one of the formulas of this form for random risk with a regularly varying tail, see Theorem 4 below.
We observe that a random risk is often expressed as a sum of random variables when it represents the aggregate loss of multiple individual risks. This occurs, for example, when modelling total claims in an insurance portfolio, where each claim amount is a random variable. It also arises in finance when a portfolio’s total loss is composed of the losses of individual assets. More generally, any situation involving accumulated, component-wise, or event-based contributions—such as operational losses, credit defaults, or catastrophe events—naturally leads to a representation as a sum of random variables. In this paper, we consider the case where the random risk is written as a sum of random variables that are somehow dependent. We consider the case where, among the summable random variables, there is a subset of variables with consistently varying tails, and the tails of the other random variables are vanishing with respect to the latter. The main results of the work are formulated in Theorems 6 and 7.
1.1. Preliminaries
Let , and let be a collection of possibly dependent and non-identically distributed random variables (r.v.’s). Denote
In the main results of the paper, we assume that random summands have consistently varying distributions. Before a more detailed discussion on heavy-tailed distributions, we first define the support of any distribution or distribution function (d.f.). For a d.f. , the support of F is defined as
where denotes the tail function (t.f.). If , then we say that the distribution (or d.f.) F is supported on . If , then we say that the distribution (or d.f.) F is supported on .
1.2. Heavy-Tailed Distributions
In this subsection, we discuss the class of heavy-tailed distributions and the most popular and closest subclasses of this class of distributions.
- A d.f. F supported on is said to be heavy-tailed, written as , if for all , we haveDue to the alternative expectation formula (see, e.g., [10,11]), we haveimplying that
- A d.f. F supported on is said to be regularly varying with index , written as , if for any , we haveIt is easy to verify that the Pareto law with d.f.belongs to the class for any positive α.
- A d.f. F supported on is said to be extended regularly varying with indices 0 ⩽ α ⩽ β, written as , if for any , we haveDue to the results of [12], the distribution with t.f.belongs to the class .
- A d.f. F supported on is said to be consistently varying, written as , ifIt can be shown (see [13,14]) that the distribution with t.f.belongs to the subclass for any parameter .
- A d.f. F supported on is said to be dominatedly varying, written as , if for any , we haveThe presented definition implies that the generalized Peter–Paul distribution with d.f.belongs to the subclass for all possible parameters a > 0, b > 1, see [15].
It is well known (see, for instance, [13]) that
The following two indices are important to determine whether the distribution F belongs to the aforementioned classes. The first index is the so-called upper Matuszewska index (see, e.g., [16] (Section 2), [12,17]), defined as
The other index, the so-called L-index, is defined as
For instance, this index is used in the main results of [18,19,20]. The definitions of the aforementioned heavy-tailed distribution classes imply that
The classes of distributions and have been extensively used in real analysis and various spheres of probability (see, e.g., [16,21,22,23,24]). The class of consistently varying distributions was introduced as a generalization of the class in [25] and was referred to as “intermediate regular variation”. The concept of consistent variation has been applied in various studies within the context of applied probability, including queueing systems and ruin theory (see, e.g., [12,13,26,27,28,29,30,31,32]).
1.3. Asymptotic Relations
In this subsection, we introduce the notation used throughout the paper. For two positive functions f and g, we write the following:
In addition, we use the standard notation for indicators:
and for positive and negative parts of any real x,
1.4. Quasi-Asymptotic Independence
In this paper, we suppose that the collection consists of pairwise quasi-asymptotically independent r.v.’s. This dependence structure, which is a direct generalization of independence, was introduced by Chen and Yuen [28] and has been considered in [33,34,35,36,37,38,39], among others.
- Real-valued r.v.’s , , with distributions supported on are called pairwise quasi-asymptotically independent (pQAI), if for all pairs of indices , , it holds thatThe following statement is Theorem 3.1 in [28]. It provides an asymptotic result for the tail probabilities of sums of pQAI r.v.’s with distributions from the class .
Theorem 1.
Let be a collection of real-valued pQAI r.v.’s, such that for all . Then, for the random sum defined in (1), we have
The following statement directly generalises Theorem 1. The paper [40] (see Theorem 4 and the remark below the theorem) gives its detailed proof.
Theorem 2.
Let be a collection of real-valued pQAI r.v.’s, such that for some , and for other indices suppose or . If , then for each ,
and for each ,
where is a subset of indices such that for .
1.5. Positively Decreasing Distribution
In this paper, we will use another concept to describe the monotonicity of a function. This concept can be applied to a fairly broad class of functions, see [41,42]. However, we will only consider the relevant subclass of d.f.’s considered in [16,43,44] among others.
- A d.f. F supported on is said to have a positively decreasing tail, written as , if for any fixedor equivalentlyfor any .
- We observe that
- Other properties of distributions from the class are presented in [43].
1.6. Haezendonck–Goovaerts Risk Measure
To give a precise definition of the HG risk measure, let us suppose that X is a real-valued r.v. with a d.f. FX representing a random risk.
- A function φ defined on is said to be a normalised Young function if φ is nonnegative and convex on the interval and such that .
The Orlicz space and the Orlicz heart of real-valued r.v.’s X associated with the function φ are defined as
It is obvious that if
- Let φ be a Young function, , and . The Haezendonck–Goovaerts (HG) risk measure for variable X is defined aswhere is a solution of the equationif , and if .
According to Proposition 3(b,d) from [5], the minimiser (x∗, h∗) to the Equation (4) exists for all q ∈ (0, 1), and it is unique if the function φ is strictly convex. The HG risk measure has received much attention in insurance and finance. The risk measure was first introduced by Haezendonck–Goovaerts in [3]. For more results on HG risk measures, see, e.g., [5,9,45,46] and references therein. As it is remarked in [9], an analytic expression for the risk measure HGq(X) is not possible in general because an explicit solution of Equation (5) is generally not available. However, in the case of the power function φ(t) = tϰ, ϰ ⩾ 1, the analytic expressions and asymptotic formulas can be derived for certain distributions. Below, we present two statements from the paper [9] (see Equality (1.3), Theorem 2.1, and Theorem 4.1).
Theorem 3.
Consider the power Young function φ(t) = tϰ with with .
- (i)
- If , , and , thenwhere is the quantile function of r.v. X.
- (ii)
- If , , , and , thenwhere is the unique solution of the equation
Theorem 4.
Consider the power Young function with , and let X be the real-valued r.v. such that for some . Then,
where
is the beta function.
In this paper, we obtain asymptotic formulas similar to those in Theorem 4 of HG risk measure for distributions from the class . More precisely, we derive asymptotic formulas for the HG risk measure when the risk variable X represents a sum of consistently varying risks . The main results of this paper are based on general Formulas (7), (8) and asymptotic relations (2), (3).
Note that the obtained asymptotic formulas can be applied to a special-form set of random variables , where are real-valued primary r.v.’s, and are nonnegative random weights. In such a case, the sum (1) becomes the randomly weighted sum
In actuarial applications, this sum usually represents the present value of the total future net loss of the insurance company during the first n time periods. In this case, the real-valued r.v. Xk represents a net loss of an insurance company during the k-th time period, and the random weight θk is a stochastic discount factor from time k to time 0. A financial interpretation of the sum is based on the construction of the portfolio. Each investment portfolio consists of n lines of risks with random losses Xk and random weights θk describing the investment environment. In such a case, the sum represents the total amount of future losses potentially incurred by the investment portfolio. The problems related to the asymptotic behavior of the sum were considered in [37,47,48,49,50,51,52,53,54,55,56,57,58,59,60,61], and asymptotic properties of distributions of sums related to the asymptotic behavior of risk measures, similar to the ES risk measure, were considered in [62,63,64,65,66,67].
The transition from the asymptotic properties of the sum to the analogous properties of the sum is ensured by the product-convolution properties reviewed in detail in Chapter 5 of [44]. We only recall that for two independent r.v.’s. X and Y, the distribution of the product XY is described by the product-convolution of the d.f.’s. FX ⊗ FY. Below, we formulate a particular statement on the product-convolution closure (see Proposition 5.2(iii), Proposition 5.3(iii), Proposition 5.4(i) in [44]).
Theorem 5.
Let F be a distribution on and G be a distribution such that and .
- (i)
- If and for some , then ;
- (ii)
- If and for some , then ;
- (iii)
- If , then .
The rest of the paper is organised as follows. In Section 2, we provide a formulation of the main results. Section 3 deals with the auxiliary results that are essentially related to the properties of quantile functions. Section 4 presents the proof of the asymptotic formulas for the HG risk measure. Section 5 deals with the analysis of the particular example illustrating the accuracy of the derived asymptotic formula. Finally, Section 6 concludes.
2. Main Results
In this section, we state two theorems on the asymptotic behavior of the HG risk measure in the case where that measure is determined for the sum of distributions from the class . The first theorem is derived for the sum of simple r.v.’s, and the second theorem is derived for the sum of weighted r.v.’s.
Theorem 6.
Consider the power Young function with , and let be a collection of real-valued pQAI r.v.’s.
- (i)
- Let , , for some , and for other indices let or . If for all , thenwhere is the quantile function of the d.f.
- (ii)
- Let , , for some , and for other indices let or . Let, in addition,for some , where . Then,where is the unique solution to the equation
As mentioned earlier, our second main theorem is on the asymptotics of the HG risk measure for a weighted sum. We remark only that in this theorem, we suppose that not some, but all distributions of primary r.v.’s belong to the class .
Theorem 7.
Consider the same power Young function as in Theorem 6. Let be a collection of real-valued pQAI r.v.’s with corresponding d.f.’s belonging to class . Let be another collection of arbitrary dependent, nonnegative, and nondegenerate at zero r.v.’s. Suppose that collections and are independent and that is finite for some .
- (i)
- If , , and for all , then,where is the quantile function of the d.f.
- (ii)
- Let and . Let, in addition,for some . Then,where is the unique solution to the equation
3. Auxiliary Statements
3.1. Some Properties of Quantile Functions
In this subsection, we formulate and prove several auxiliary results on useful properties of the quantile functions. Analogs of many of the statements formulated below can be found in articles [41,42,68,69]. For completeness, we present their complete proofs.
Lemma 1.
Let F be a d.f. from the class . Then,
where
is the quantile function for F, and
is the quantile function for t.f. .
Proof.
Let . Since d.f. is right-continuous, the set is closed. Hence, , which implies that
for any . Therefore,
For the first asymptotic relation of the lemma, it remains to prove that
Suppose, on the contrary, that
Then, there exist Δ > 0 and the sequence qn ↑ 1 such that
implying that for large n. Since F(x) ⩽ 1 for all x, we have that
for large n. This is impossible because qn ↑ 1. The obtained contradiction proves estimate (12). Estimates (11) and (12) imply the first asymptotic relation of the lemma.
Now, consider the second relation of the lemma. Let p > 0. Due to inequality (10), we have
implying that
It remains to prove that
Suppose, on the contrary, that
From this, it follows that there exist Δ ∈ (0, 1) and a sequence pn ↓ 0 such that
Hence,
or, equivalently,
for large n.
Let us temporarily denote
Since for all x, the sequence xn is nondecreasing, and xn ↑ ∞. In addition, the d.f. F is right-continuous so that F(xn) ⩾ 1 − pn. For fixed n, there are two possible cases: F(xn) = 1 − pn or F(xn) > 1 − pn. In the first case, we get
which is impossible due to the positivity of Δ. Consequently, the d.f. F has a jump at each point xn, from which it follows that
or, equivalently,
for some sequence εn ↓ 0. These estimates imply that
for some sequences xn ↑ ∞ and εn ↓ 0. The derived relation contradicts the condition , because it should be
by the definition of the class presented in Section 1.2.
Lemma 2.
Let F be a d.f. from the class . Then,
where the quantile functions and are defined in Lemma 1.
Proof.
Consider the first relation. By the definition of the quantile function , we have
Since the function is nonincreasing, that is for y ⩾ x, we have that , implying
It remains to prove that
Suppose, on the contrary, that
In such a case, there exist Δ ∈ (0, 1) and a sequence xn ↑ ∞ such that
Hence,
for sufficiently large n, say n ⩾ NΔ. This relation implies that
Since the function is nonincreasing, it must be
for n ⩾ NΔ. Therefore,
which contradicts the definition of presented in Section 1.5. Consequently, the asymptotic Relation (17) holds. Relations (16) and (17) imply the first one of the lemma.
The second relation of the lemma follows from the equalities
The lemma is now proved. □
Lemma 3.
Let d.f. . Then, for any two positive functions and such that and , we have that
and for any positive functions , such that and , we have
Proof.
It suffices to prove the first equivalence relation because the second relation follows from the first one by noting that
Consider the first relation. Firstly, we will show that
We will proceed with the proof by contradiction again. Assume that
This means that there exist Δ > 0 and a sequence xn ↑ ∞ such that
It follows that
for large enough n. By the definition of , we have
This relation, together with (13), implies
since . Thus,
for some sequence . This contradicts the definition of in Section 1.2.
It remains to prove that
Suppose, on the contrary, that
It follows that there exist Δ > 0 and a sequence xn ↑ ∞ such that
Consequently,
for large n. By the definition of , it follows that
This relation, together with (13), implies
since . Thus,
for some sequence . This contradicts the definition of in Section 1.2. The lemma is now proved. □
Lemma 4.
Let F and G be two d.f.’s such that , and for some constant . Then,
Proof.
The condition and Lemmas 2 and 3 imply that
The conditions and imply that . Hence, for all , and therefore, as p ↓ 0. By taking in (19), we get
By Lemma 1, we have
Hence, from Lemma 3, we derive that
or, equivalently,
The lemma is proved. □
3.2. Properties of the Special Function in Equation (8)
Let X be an r.v. such that and for all . Let
be a well-defined function from Equation (8). In this subsection, we consider properties of the function γX and its components. The first such statement is proved in [9] (Lemma 2.1).
Lemma 5.
Let X be an r.v. such that and for all real x. If , then function is continuously differentiable with
If , then for each , the derivative from the right and the derivative from the left .
Other statements directly concern the properties of the function γX.
Lemma 6.
Let X be an r.v. such that and for all . Let γX be the function defined in Equation (20). If , then
Proof.
While the main steps of the proof are outlined in [9] (see the proof of Theorem 2.1), we provide the complete proof here in more detail. Since FX(x) > 0, we have that
for any . By using the classical Hölder’s inequality, we get
which implies the second equality of the lemma.
Let us consider the first equality. It is obvious that
The classical cr-inequality and inequality (a + b)+ ⩽ a+ + b+ provided for any real numbers a, b imply that for positive x
where
Hence,
by the dominated convergence theorem.
- Similarly,
Now, we can derive the first equality of the lemma by substituting the last two relations into equality (21). The lemma is proved. □
Lemma 7.
Let X be an r.v. such that and for . If , then the function is continuous and strongly decreasing on .
Proof.
At first, let us consider the case ϰ > 2. By denoting ηx = (X − x)+, we have
Due to Lemma 5, we get
The classical Cauchy–Schwarz inequality and condition imply that
Therefore, for implying the assertion of the lemma in the case ϰ > 2.
Now, let us suppose that ϰ = 2. In this case,
Using Lemma 5, we obtain the derivative from the right
is negative for any due to the Hölder inequality
where the strictness of the inequality follows from the condition . In the same way, we get that the derivative from the left is also negative for any real x because
The derived properties of the function γX imply that this function is continuous and strongly decreasing on . The lemma is proved. □
Lemma 8.
Let X be an r.v. such that and . If , then
Proof.
If is finite, then
for any . Therefore, for all positive x and y
If y ∈ (0, 1), then
Since d.f. , the last inequality implies the statement of the lemma. □
Lemma 9.
Let X be an r.v. with d.f. such that and
for some and some . Then,
for some .
Remark 1.
Proof of the lemma.
Corollary 1.
The corollary immediately follows from Lemmas 6–9.
3.3. Some Closure Properties
In this subsection, we present some closure properties of d.f.’s with respect to the dependence structure and the product convolution. We use the results of this subsection to derive Theorem 7. The proof of the first such lemma can be found in [18] (Lemma 4).
Lemma 10.
Let be QAI r.v.’s with d.f. , . Let be two nonnegative nondegenerate at zero r.v.’s such that vectors ( and are independent. If for some then the r.v.’s and are QAI.
The second lemma on the closure of class with respect to the product convolution is proved in [70] (Lemma 2.5).
Lemma 11.
Let X and θ be independent r.v.’s, and let d.f. belong to the class . If θ is a nonnegative, nondegenerate at zero r.v. such that for some , then d.f. of the product also belongs to the class .
The next lemma is on the closure of class .
Lemma 12.
Let X be an r.v. with d.f. , and let θ be an independent of X, nonnegative, and nondegenerate at zero r.v. such that for some . Then, the product d.f. belongs to the class .
Proof.
Fix y > 1 such that
and let a ∈ (0, 1) and b > 0 be such that . If x is sufficiently large, then
Since , it is obvious that . Moreover, for ; see, e.g., Lemma 3.5 in [54]. If , then there exists a ∈ (0, 1) such that . For this particular a, the second term on the right side of (24) tends to zero as x tends to infinity. Consequently, for this particular a ∈ (0, 1)
The lemma is proved. We remark only that a similar statement, but for a positive random weight, is proved in Theorem 4.1 of [71]. □
Lemma 13.
Let X be an r.v. with d.f. , and let θ be an independent of X, nonnegative, and nondegenerate at zero r.v. such that for some . Then, for all
Proof.
4. Proof of the Main Results
Proof of Theorem 6.
- Let us begin with part (i) of the theorem. By Relation (2) of Theorem 2, we havefor any β ∈ [0, 1]. In the particular case, if β = 0, we getWe observe that for each if x is sufficiently large. Hence, according to the min-max inequalityprovided if ai ⩾ 0, and bi > 0 for , we get thatfor each y ∈ (0, 1] and sufficiently large x. This double inequality shows that the d.f. Hn, together with the d.f. , belongs to the class . Hence, by Lemma 4, we haveFor q ∈ (0, 1), by equality (6) and the min-max inequality (28), we derive thatbecause, according to the alternative expectation formula,for all positive x1, x2, and every r.v. η such that , . Now, let ε ∈ (0, 1/2). By Relations (30) and (31), we get thatfor all q sufficiently close to the unit from the left. Since if q ↑ 1, we get from the last estimateThe fact that , Relation (3) of Theorem 2, and the arbitrariness of ε ∈ (0, 1/2) imply thatIn a similar way, we can obtainfor all ε ∈ (0, 1/2), and by similar arguments, we can derive thatThe last estimate, jointly with inequality (32), finishes the proof of the first part of Theorem 6.
- Now, suppose ϰ ⩾ 2, and all conditions of part (ii) of Theorem 6 are satisfied. Due to Theorem 3where is the unique solution of the equationLet Hn be the d.f. defined in part (i) of Theorem 6. Due to the asymptotic Relation (27), the upper bound in (29), and the conditions of the theorem, we have that the d.f.’s and Hn both belong to the class . In addition, according to Relation (27), the min-max inequality (28), and condition (9), we get thatfor some y > 1. Therefore, Corollary 1 implies that the d.f. belongs to the class .
For sufficiently large x, by the alternative expectation formula, we have that
where ζn is an r.v. with d.f. Hn. Due to the estimate (34) d.f. satisfies condition (23) which, according to Corollary 1, implies that the d.f. belongs to the class together with the d.f. .
On the other hand, Relation (3) of Theorem 2 implies that
Consequently, all conditions of Lemma 4 are satisfied with c = 1 and d.f.’s , . According to this lemma, we get that
Now, we continue the proof of this part in the same way as in the proof of part (i). For any q ∈ (0, 1), by Relation (33) and the min-max inequality (28), we get
If q is sufficiently close to the unit from the left, then
Consequently, for q sufficiently close to the unit from the left, we have
Since , and the d.f. Hn belongs to the class , the last estimate and the asymptotic Relation (3) of Theorem 2 imply that
Similarly, we can derive that
This finishes the proof of the second part of the theorem. □
Proof of Theorem 7.
- We begin with case ϰ = 1. According to the conditions and Lemma 10, a collection of r.v.’s follows the pQAI dependence structure. By Lemma 11, we have that the d.f.’s belong to the class for all . Since and , by Lemma 3.5 of [54], we get that for , becausefor every d.f. F from the class . Finally, by Lemma 12, we derive that for all . Hence, the collection of r.v.’s satisfies all conditions of part (i) of Theorem 6. This implies the statement of Theorem 7(i).
- Now, let us consider part (ii) of the theorem. If ϰ ⩾ 2, Theorem 7(ii) follows from Theorem 6(ii) by completely analogous reasoning as in the first part of the proof, only instead of Lemma 12, we need to use Lemma 13. □
5. Illustrative Example
In this section, we present an example showing how Theorem 6 can be applied to the evaluation of the HG risk measure when the risk level is close to unity and the leading risk has a consistently varying distribution.
Example 1.
Let us consider collection of independent r.v.’s {ξ1, ξ2, ξ3, ξ4} with the following d.f.’s:
We derive asymptotic formulas for HGq risk measures in the cases of the power Young functions with and .
It is clear that the collection of r.v.’s satisfies the conditions of Theorem 6 with . In the case ϰ = 1, we have
where is the quantile function of the d.f.
For large x
Therefore,
for q sufficiently close to unity. For any sufficiently large x,
Therefore, in the case ϰ = 1
The graph of this function, together with the values of obtained using the Monte-Carlo (MC) method, can be seen in Figure 1. The Monte-Carlo simulations were performed using statistical software R (v4.0.3); the graphs provided in this section were generated in R using ggplot2 and tikzDevice libraries.
Figure 1.
Simulated and asymptotically approximated values of in the case ϰ = 1.
If ϰ = 2, then
where is the solution of the equation
In the case under consideration,
Hence,
and
The graph of this function, together with the values of obtained using the Monte-Carlo method, can be seen in Figure 2.
Figure 2.
Simulated and asymptotically approximated values of in the case ϰ = 2.
6. Concluding Remarks
The study of risk measures is a relatively popular topic in probability theory, as risk measures are applied in numerous fields where uncertainty and potential losses must be quantified, including banking and finance, insurance, investment management, and energy markets. Acceptable properties of risk measures are listed, for example, in the work [1]. The book [72] discusses classical mathematical problems related to risk measures. The mathematical problems of risk measures are still being intensively studied today. Let us mention a few works. Distortion risk measures are considered, e.g., in [73,74]. The duality of risk measures is considered in [75]. Risk measures with special properties are analysed, e.g., in [76,77,78]. In addition, we note that our results complement those of the papers [79,80,81,82], which also utilise higher-order moments in the construction of risk measures.
As already mentioned, the HG risk measure is a direct generalisation of the ES risk measure by introducing a governing Young function. Other generalisations of the ES measure are obtained by replacing quantiles with generalised quantiles or expectiles. Such risk measures are described and studied in [83,84,85].
In our paper, we study the properties of the HG risk measure, which was first defined in [3]. The main result of our work is given in Theorem 6. It follows from this result that, to find the asymptotics of the HG risk measure for the sum of random risks, it is sufficient to determine the appropriate characteristics of the sum of dominant risks. From Theorem 6, we see that such a result holds when the distribution functions of the dominant risks are consistently varying and satisfy additional requirements related to having positively decreasing tails. In addition, Theorem 6 implies that in order to find the asymptotics of the HG risk measure for the sum of random risks, there is no need to calculate complex convolutions. It is enough to construct the distribution function from the sum of the distribution functions of the selected group. The next main theorem of the work, Theorem 7, is actually a consequence of Theorem 6. This theorem demonstrates that the procedure for determining the asymptotics of the HG risk measure also applies in cases where a set of random variables with random weights is considered.
Possibly similar results on the asymptotic behavior of the HG risk measure can be obtained for a wider class of distributions , i.e., for distributions with dominatedly varying d.f.’s. However, in this case, the asymptotic formulas should have additional constants resulting in less strict asymptotic bounds, or additional constraints should be imposed on the d.f.’s of random risks to preserve exact asymptotic relations. In the near future, we hope to determine how the asymptotic formulas of the HG risk measure change when the distribution class is replaced by the wider distribution class .
Author Contributions
Conceptualisation, J.Š.; methodology, J.Š. and M.D.; software, M.D. and L.Z.; validation, M.D., N.N., and L.Z.; formal analysis, L.Z.; investigation, M.D. and N.N.; resources, J.Š.; data curation, M.D.; writing—original draft preparation, J.Š and M.D.; writing—review and editing, M.D. and N.N.; visualisation, M.D. and L.Z.; supervision, J.Š.; project administration, J.Š. and L.Z.; funding acquisition, J.Š. and N.N. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
Funding
This research received no external funding.
Data Availability Statement
The original contributions presented in this study are included in the article. Further inquiries can be directed to the corresponding author.
Acknowledgments
The authors are very grateful to the editors and the anonymous referees for their constructive and valuable suggestions and comments, which have helped to improve the previous version of the paper.
Conflicts of Interest
The authors declare no conflicts of interest.
Abbreviations
The following abbreviations are used in this manuscript:
| HG | Haezendonck–Goovaerts risk measure |
| HGq | Haezendonck–Goovaerts risk measure with level q |
| ES | Expected Shortfall (particular case of HG risk measure) |
| r.v. | random variable |
| d.f. | distribution function |
| t.f. | tail function |
| pQAI | (pairwise) quasi-asymptotically independent (random variables) |
| positively decreasing (distribution function) | |
| MC | Monte-Carlo (method) |
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