Closer to Home, More Trusted? Territorial Disparities in Government Trust Across Thai Regions

From the Red Shirt heartlands of the North and Northeast to the conservative South and the fragmented middle-class electorate of Bangkok, Thailand’s regional divisions reflect a deeply contested relationship with centralized power. How these divisions shape citizens’ relative trust in local versus central government remains an open empirical question. Drawing on three waves of the Asian Barometer Survey conducted between 2014 and 2022 (pooled N = 3600), this study examines whether territorial location produces differential trust in local relative to central government. The findings are mixed. Regional differences are observable in baseline models, but their explanatory power diminishes once individual-level evaluations of political institutions and economic conditions are taken into account. Rural residents exhibit a smaller trust gap, indicating a weaker relative preference for local over central government, consistent with central welfare transfers sustaining support for the central tier. At the contextual level, higher regional poverty rates are associated with a compression of the trust gap between levels of government. Once poverty is introduced, the overall temporal increase observed by 2022 is no longer statistically significant. Structural economic geography explains much of the aggregate shift. Regional dynamics, however, are not uniform. The Northeast diverges sharply in the final wave, and the pattern holds across model specifications. The shift points to accumulated political alienation rooted in repeated episodes of electoral disenfranchisement. The findings carry direct implications for decentralization policy and territorial development strategy. Where regional trust gaps are driven by fiscal constraints on local government and accumulated political alienation, administrative redesign alone cannot restore citizen confidence in sub-national governance.