Abstract
In this study, we comprehensively evaluate the simulation performance of a 12 km high-resolution multi-physics ensemble of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, utilizing the CORDEX-East Asia (CORDEX-EA) Phase 2 grid domain. An eight-member ensemble was constructed by combining two schemes each for microphysics (MPS), planetary boundary layer (PBL), and cumulus parameterization (CPS). Although continuous simulations were conducted for a 46-year period (1979–2024), this performance evaluation focuses on various variables during a recent 20-year period (2005–2024). Validated against observational and reanalysis datasets, the ensemble members demonstrated highly capable overall performance for the surface and low tropospheric variables, with Taylor skill scores exceeding 0.7. However, simulation performance varied substantially across variables, seasons, and physics scheme combinations, with mean bias remaining a crucial factor to be considered. They successfully captured the spatiotemporal patterns of temperature and precipitation, albeit with distinct sensitivities to the chosen physics combinations. In particular, the CPS–PBL combination played the critical role in shaping inter-model variabilities through modulating precipitation over the Western North Pacific. The ensemble mean approach mitigated the sensitivities associated with individual physics configurations, thereby demonstrating robust overall performance. Further analysis for the Korean Peninsula reveals that the influence of physics combinations depends on the target analysis region. These results offer critical scientific insights into optimal physics selection and ensemble configuration for climate change scenarios over East Asia, while also providing a solid foundation for interpreting future regional climate projections based on the upcoming AR7 scenarios.