Next Article in Journal
Research on Influencing Factors of Carbon Emissions in the Regional Construction Industry: A Case Study of Jiangxi Province
Previous Article in Journal
Evaluating Greenery’s Contribution to Urban Thermal Comfort in Hot Arid Climates: A Systematic Review
Previous Article in Special Issue
Designing with Spontaneity: The Return to Nature in the Contemporary City. Biodiversity Networks and Adaptive Landscapes in Eastern Rome
 
 
Search for Articles:
Title / Keyword
Author / Affiliation / Email
Journal
Article Type
 
 
Advanced Search
 
Section
Special Issue
Volume
Issue
Number
Page
 
Journals
Sustainability
Volume 18
Issue 1
10.3390/su18010452
sustainability-logo
Submit to this Journal Review for this Journal Propose a Special Issue
► Article Menu

Article Menu

share Share announcement Help format_quote Cite question_answer Discuss in SciProfiles
first_page
settings
Order Article Reprints
Font Type:
Arial Georgia Verdana
Font Size:
Aa Aa Aa
Line Spacing:
Column Width:
Background:
This is an early access version, the complete PDF, HTML, and XML versions will be available soon.
Article

Future Land Use Change Threatens Ecosystems in the Rocky Desertification Areas: Conservation Insights from Integrated Model-A Case Study of Wenshan Prefecture, Yunnan Province, China

by
Yanfang Tan
1,†,
Yuanhang Li
1,†,
Shuai Zhou
1,
Jianming Cui
2,
Mingmin Huang
3,
Yuan Gu
1,
Dong Chen
1,
Zeting Dong
4 and
Yun Zhang
1,*
1
College of Landscape Architecture and Horticulture Science, Southwest Forestry University, Kunming 650224, China
2
College of Architecture and Urban Planning, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou 543002, China
3
College of Architecture and Design, Hunan University of Science and Technology, Xiangtan 411201, China
4
College of Smart Agriculture, Yulin Normal University, Yulin 537000, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
†
These authors contributed equally to this work.
Sustainability 2026, 18(1), 452; https://doi.org/10.3390/su18010452
Submission received: 6 November 2025 / Revised: 29 December 2025 / Accepted: 30 December 2025 / Published: 2 January 2026
(This article belongs to the Collection Adaptive Cities: Urban Planning and Design Contribution for Achieving Climate Resilient Cities)
Versions Notes

Abstract

The Rocky Desertification area has high sensitivity and poor anti-interference ability in the ecosystem. It is challenging to achieve sustainable development in a rocky desertification area. Given this issue, the System Dynamics model, the Future Land Use Simulation (FlUS) model, the Integrated Valuation and Trade-offs of ESs (InVEST) model, and the Structural Equation Model (SEM) were integrated in this study to analyze future ecosystem service change in Wenshan Prefecture under SSP1-1.9, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The following results are obtained. (1) The area of cultivated land, construction land, forest land, and grassland increased in SSP1-1.9; the area of forest land and grassland decreased in SSP2-4.5 scenario and SSP5-8.5 scenario. (2) The water supply (WS), carbon sequestration (CS), and soil conservation power (SDR) under the three different scenarios were improved compared with 2020. Among them, habitat quality (HQ) demonstrated a slight increase trend under the SSP1-1.9 scenario but decreased under the other two scenarios. (3) WS, CS, and HQ exhibited a tradeoff relationship in the three scenarios compared with 2020. (4) In the SSP1-1.9 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios, the synergistic relationships among CS, HQ, SDR, and WS were particularly detected in the northern, southern, and central parts of the study area. Additionally, climate change and vegetation-dominated ecological environment are the main driving mechanisms affecting ES changes. This paper summarizes the spatial differences in the change trend and synergistic tradeoff and lays a crucial scientific foundation for the ecological protection of karst landform areas.
Keywords: SD-FLUS model; InVEST model; ecosystem services; structural equation model (SEM); trade-off synergy; Wenshan Prefecture SD-FLUS model; InVEST model; ecosystem services; structural equation model (SEM); trade-off synergy; Wenshan Prefecture

Share and Cite

MDPI and ACS Style

Tan, Y.; Li, Y.; Zhou, S.; Cui, J.; Huang, M.; Gu, Y.; Chen, D.; Dong, Z.; Zhang, Y. Future Land Use Change Threatens Ecosystems in the Rocky Desertification Areas: Conservation Insights from Integrated Model-A Case Study of Wenshan Prefecture, Yunnan Province, China. Sustainability 2026, 18, 452. https://doi.org/10.3390/su18010452

AMA Style

Tan Y, Li Y, Zhou S, Cui J, Huang M, Gu Y, Chen D, Dong Z, Zhang Y. Future Land Use Change Threatens Ecosystems in the Rocky Desertification Areas: Conservation Insights from Integrated Model-A Case Study of Wenshan Prefecture, Yunnan Province, China. Sustainability. 2026; 18(1):452. https://doi.org/10.3390/su18010452

Chicago/Turabian Style

Tan, Yanfang, Yuanhang Li, Shuai Zhou, Jianming Cui, Mingmin Huang, Yuan Gu, Dong Chen, Zeting Dong, and Yun Zhang. 2026. "Future Land Use Change Threatens Ecosystems in the Rocky Desertification Areas: Conservation Insights from Integrated Model-A Case Study of Wenshan Prefecture, Yunnan Province, China" Sustainability 18, no. 1: 452. https://doi.org/10.3390/su18010452

APA Style

Tan, Y., Li, Y., Zhou, S., Cui, J., Huang, M., Gu, Y., Chen, D., Dong, Z., & Zhang, Y. (2026). Future Land Use Change Threatens Ecosystems in the Rocky Desertification Areas: Conservation Insights from Integrated Model-A Case Study of Wenshan Prefecture, Yunnan Province, China. Sustainability, 18(1), 452. https://doi.org/10.3390/su18010452

Note that from the first issue of 2016, this journal uses article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Article Metrics

Article metric data becomes available approximately 24 hours after publication online.
Back to TopTop