Multi-Scenario Emission Reduction Potential Assessment and Cost–Benefit Analysis of Motor Vehicles at the Provincial Level in China Based on the LEAP Model: Implication for Sustainable Transportation Transitions

With the continuous expansion in China’s vehicle fleet, emissions of CO₂ and air pollutants from the on-road transportation sector are widely projected to be rising, posing a challenge to realizing China’s targets of carbon peaking in 2030 and carbon neutrality in 2060, as well as the national target for air quality improvement. Therefore, vehicle electrification in the on-road transportation sector is urgently needed to reduce emissions of CO₂ and air pollutants, as it serves as a key pathway to align transportation development with sustainability goals. While vehicle electrification is supposed to be the primary solution, there is a research gap in quantifying the provincial, environmental, and economic impacts of implementing such a policy in China. To bridge this gap, we projected the provincial-level ownership of different types of vehicles based on historical trends, assessed the emission reduction potential for CO₂ and air pollutants using the LEAP model from 2021 to 2060, and predicted the provincial marginal abatement costs at different mitigation stages under various scenarios with different strategies of vehicle electrification and development patterns of electricity structure. Our results show that the implementation of vehicle electrification lowers the national carbon peak by 0.2–0.6 Gt yr⁻¹ and advances its achievement by 1–3 years ahead of 2030. The marginal abatement cost ranges from $532 to $3466 per ton CO₂ (tCO₂⁻¹) in 2025 and from -$180 to -$113 tCO₂⁻¹ in 2060 across scenarios. The provincial marginal abatement cost curves further indicate that China’s vehicle electrification should be prioritized in cost-effective regions (e.g., Shanghai and Guangdong), while concurrently advancing nationwide grid decarbonization to guarantee the supply of low-carbon electricity across the country. This optimized pathway ensures that transportation decarbonization aligns with both environmental and economic requirements, providing actionable support for China’s sustainable development strategy.