Search Results (1,372)

The increasing complexity of maritime traffic imposes growing demands on the safety and rationality of ship-collision-avoidance decisions. While most existing research focuses on simple encounter scenarios, autonomous collision-avoidance strategies that comply with the International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea (COLREGs) in complex multi-ship environments remain insufficiently investigated. To address this gap, this study proposes a novel collision-avoidance framework that integrates a quantitative COLREGs analysis with a distributed stochastic search mechanism. The framework consists of three core components: encounter identification, safety assessment, and stage classification. A cost function is employed to balance safety, COLREGs compliance, and navigational efficiency, incorporating a distance-based weighting factor to modulate the influence of each target vessel. The use of a distributed stochastic search algorithm enables decentralized decision-making through localized information sharing and probabilistic updates. Extensive simulations conducted across a variety of scenarios demonstrate that the proposed method can rapidly generate effective collision-avoidance strategies that fully comply with COLREGs. Comprehensive evaluations in terms of safety, navigational efficiency, COLREGs adherence, and real-time computational performance further validate the method’s strong adaptability and its promising potential for practical application in complex multi-ship environments. Full article

In modern industrial environments, quickly and accurately identifying faults is crucial for ensuring the smooth operation of production processes. Non-negative Matrix Factorization (NMF)-based fault detection technology has garnered attention due to its wide application in industrial process monitoring and machinery fault diagnosis. As an effective dimensionality reduction tool, NMF can decompose complex datasets into non-negative matrices with practical and physical significance, thereby extracting key features of the process. This paper presents a novel approach to fault detection in industrial processes, called Graph-Regularized Orthogonal Non-negative Matrix Factorization with Itakura–Saito Divergence (GONMF-IS). The proposed method addresses the challenges of fault detection in complex, non-Gaussian industrial environments. By using Itakura–Saito divergence, GONMF-IS effectively handles data with probabilistic distribution characteristics, improving the model’s ability to process non-Gaussian data. Additionally, graph regularization leverages the structural relationships among data points to refine the matrix factorization process, enhancing the robustness and adaptability of the algorithm. The incorporation of orthogonality constraints further enhances the independence and interpretability of the resulting factors. Through extensive experiments, the GONMF-IS method demonstrates superior performance in fault detection tasks, providing an effective and reliable tool for industrial applications. The results suggest that GONMF-IS offers significant improvements over traditional methods, offering a more robust and accurate solution for fault diagnosis in complex industrial settings. Full article

Surface defect segmentation based on deep learning has been widely applied in industrial inspection. However, two major challenges persist in specific application scenarios: first, the imbalanced area distribution between defects and the background leads to degraded segmentation performance; second, fine gaps within defects are prone to over-segmentation. To address these issues, this study proposes a two-stage image segmentation network that integrates a Defect Localization Module and a Pixel Confidence Module. In the first stage, the Defect Localization Module performs a coarse localization of defect regions and embeds the resulting feature vectors into the backbone of the second stage. In the second stage, the Pixel Confidence Module captures the probabilistic distribution of neighboring pixels, thereby refining the initial predictions. Experimental results demonstrate that the improved network achieves gains of $1.58\%\pm 0.80\%$ in $mPA$, $1.35\%\pm 0.77\%$ in $mIoU$ on the self-built Carbon Fabric Defect Dataset and $2.66\%\pm 1.12\%$ in $mPA$, $1.44\%\pm 0.79\%$ in $mIoU$ on the public Magnetic Tile Defect Dataset compared to the other network. These enhancements translate to more reliable automated quality assurance in industrial production environments. Full article

Street networks provide an invaluable source of information about the different temporal and spatial patterns emerging in our cities. These streets are often represented as graphs where intersections are modeled as nodes and streets as edges between them. Previous work has shown that raster representations of the original data can be created through a learning algorithm on low-dimensional representations of the street networks. In contrast, models that capture high-level urban network metrics can be trained through convolutional neural networks. However, the detailed topological data is lost through the rasterization of the street network, and the models cannot recover this information from the image alone, failing to capture complex street network features. This paper proposes a model capable of inferring good representations directly from the street network. Specifically, we use a variational autoencoder with graph convolutional layers and a decoder that generates a probabilistic, fully connected graph to learn latent representations that encode both local network structure and the spatial distribution of nodes. We train the model on thousands of street network segments and use the learned representations to generate synthetic street configurations. Finally, we proposed a possible application to classify the urban morphology of different network segments, investigating their common characteristics in the learned space. Full article

The stability of modern power systems has become critically dependent on precise inertia estimation of synchronous generators, particularly as renewable energy integration fundamentally transforms grid dynamics. Increasing penetration of converter-interfaced renewable resources reduces system inertia, heightening the grid’s susceptibility to transient disturbances and creating significant technical challenges in maintaining operational reliability. This paper addresses these challenges through a novel Bayesian inference framework that synergistically integrates PMU data with an advanced MCMC sampling technique, specifically employing the Affine-Invariant Ensemble Sampler. The proposed methodology establishes a probabilistic estimation paradigm that systematically combines prior engineering knowledge with real-time measurements, while the Affine-Invariant Ensemble Sampler mechanism overcomes high-dimensional computational barriers through its unique ensemble-based exploration strategy featuring stretch moves and parallel walker coordination. The framework’s ability to provide full posterior distributions of inertia parameters, rather than single-point estimates, helps for stability assessment in renewable-dominated grids. Simulation results on the IEEE 39-bus and 68-bus benchmark systems validate the effectiveness and scalability of the proposed method, with inertia estimation errors consistently maintained below $1\%$ across all generators. Moreover, the parallelized implementation of the algorithm significantly outperforms the conventional M-H method in computational efficiency. Specifically, the proposed approach reduces execution time by approximately $52\%$ in the 39-bus system and by $57\%$ in the 68-bus system, demonstrating its suitability for real-time and large-scale power system applications. Full article

We present Bayesian Binary Search (BBS), a novel framework that bridges statistical learning theory/probabilistic machine learning and binary search. BBS utilizes probabilistic methods to learn the underlying probability density of the search space. This learned distribution then informs a modified bisection strategy, where the split point is determined by probability density rather than the conventional midpoint. This learning process for search space density estimation can be achieved through various supervised probabilistic machine learning techniques (e.g., Gaussian Process Regression, Bayesian Neural Networks, and Quantile Regression) or unsupervised statistical learning algorithms (e.g., Gaussian Mixture Models, Kernel Density Estimation (KDE), and Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE)). Our results demonstrate substantial efficiency improvements using BBS on both synthetic data with diverse distributions and in a real-world scenario involving Bitcoin Lightning Network channel balance probing (3–6% efficiency gain), where BBS is currently in production. Full article

In this work, we prove the convergence to 0 in both $L^1$ and $L^2$ of the Bayes estimator of a regression curve (i.e., the conditional expectation of the response variable given the regressor). The strong consistency of the estimator is also derived. The Bayes estimator of a regression curve is the regression curve with respect to the posterior predictive distribution. The result is general enough to cover discrete and continuous cases, parametric or nonparametric, and no specific supposition is made about the prior distribution. Some examples, two of them of a nonparametric nature, are given to illustrate the main result; one of the nonparametric examples exhibits a situation where the estimation of the regression curve has an optimal solution, although the problem of estimating the density is meaningless. An important role in the demonstration of these results is the establishment of a probability space as an adequate framework to address the problem of estimating regression curves from the Bayesian point of view, putting at our disposal powerful probabilistic tools in that endeavor. Full article

In airport operations management, accurately estimating the service durations of ground support equipment such as Potable Water Trucks (PWTs) is essential for improving resource allocation efficiency and ensuring timely aircraft turnaround. Traditional estimation methods often use fixed averages or assume normal distributions, failing to capture real-world variability and extreme scenarios effectively. To address these limitations, this study performs a comprehensive statistical analysis of PWT service durations using operational data from Beijing Daxing International Airport (ZBAD) and Shanghai Pudong International Airport (ZSPD). Employing chi-square goodness-of-fit tests, twenty probability distributions—including several heavy-tailed candidates—were rigorously evaluated under segmented scenarios, such as peak versus non-peak periods, varying temperature conditions, and different aircraft sizes. Results reveal that heavy-tailed distributions offer context-dependent advantages: the stable distribution exhibits superior modeling performance during peak operational periods, whereas the Burr distribution excels under non-peak conditions. Interestingly, contrary to existing operational assumptions, service durations at extremely high and low temperatures showed no significant statistical differences, prompting a reconsideration of temperature-dependent planning practices. Additionally, analysis by aircraft category showed that the Burr distribution best described service durations for large aircraft, while stable and log-logistic distributions were optimal for medium-sized aircraft. Numerical simulations confirmed these findings, demonstrating that the proposed heavy-tailed probabilistic models significantly improved resource prediction accuracy, reducing estimation errors by 13% to 25% compared to conventional methods. This research uniquely demonstrates the practical effectiveness of employing context-sensitive heavy-tailed distributions, substantially enhancing resource efficiency and operational reliability in airport ground handling management. Full article

Reservoir group flood control scheduling decision-making faces multiple uncertainties, such as dynamic fluctuations of evaluation indicators and conflicts in weight assignment. This study proposes a risk analysis model for the decision-making process: capturing the temporal uncertainties of flood control indicators (such as reservoir maximum water level and downstream control section flow) through the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network, constructing a feasible weight space including four scenarios (unique fixed value, uniform distribution, etc.), resolving conflicts among the weight results from four methods (Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Entropy Weight, Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation (CRITIC), Principal Component Analysis (PCA)) using game theory, defining decision-making risk as the probability that the actual safety level fails to reach the evaluation threshold, and quantifying risks based on the First-Order Second-Moment (FOSM) method. Case verification in the cascade reservoirs of the Qiantang River Basin of China shows that the model provides a risk assessment framework integrating multi-source uncertainties for flood control scheduling decisions through probabilistic description of indicator uncertainties (e.g., Zmax1 with μ = 65.3 and σ = 8.5) and definition of weight feasible regions (99% weight distribution covered by the 3σ criterion), filling the methodological gap in risk quantification during the decision-making process in existing research. Full article

Accurate extraction of representative operating conditions is crucial for optimizing systems in renewable energy applications. This study proposes a novel framework that combines the Parzen window estimation method, ideal for nonparametric modeling of wind, solar, and load datasets, with a game theory-based time scale selection mechanism. The novelty of this work lies in integrating probabilistic density modeling with multi-indicator evaluation to derive realistic operational profiles. We first validate the superiority of the Parzen window approach over traditional Weibull and Beta distributions in estimating wind and solar probability density functions. In addition, we analyze the influence of key meteorological parameters such as wind direction, temperature, and solar irradiance on energy production. Using three evaluation metrics, the main result shows that a 3-day representative time scale offers optimal accuracy when determined through game theory methods. Validation with real-world data from Inner Mongolia confirms the robustness of the proposed method, yielding low errors in wind, solar, and load profiles. This study contributes a novel 3-day typical profile extraction method validated on real meteorological data, providing a data-driven foundation for optimizing energy storage systems under renewable uncertainty. This framework supports energy sustainability by ensuring realistic modeling under renewable intermittency. Full article

The entanglement entropy of a random tensor network (RTN) is studied using tools from free probability theory. Random tensor networks are simple toy models that help in understanding the entanglement behavior of a boundary region in the anti-de Sitter/conformal field theory (AdS/CFT) context. These can be regarded as specific probabilistic models for tensors with particular geometry dictated by a graph (or network) structure. First, we introduce a model of RTN obtained by contracting maximally entangled states (corresponding to the edges of the graph) on the tensor product of Gaussian tensors (corresponding to the vertices of the graph). The entanglement spectrum of the resulting random state is analyzed along a given bipartition of the local Hilbert spaces. The limiting eigenvalue distribution of the reduced density operator of the RTN state is provided in the limit of large local dimension. This limiting value is described through a maximum flow optimization problem in a new graph corresponding to the geometry of the RTN and the given bipartition. In the case of series-parallel graphs, an explicit formula for the limiting eigenvalue distribution is provided using classical and free multiplicative convolutions. The physical implications of these results are discussed, allowing the analysis to move beyond the semiclassical regime without any cut assumption, specifically in terms of finite corrections to the average entanglement entropy of the RTN. Full article

During offshore operations of jack-up platforms, the spudcan may experience sudden punch-through failure when penetrating from an overlying stiff clay layer into the underlying soft clay, posing significant risks to platform safety. Conventional punch-through prediction methods, which rely on predetermined soil parameters, exhibit limited accuracy as they fail to account for uncertainties in seabed stratigraphy and soil properties. To address this limitation, based on a database of centrifuge model tests, a probabilistic prediction framework for the peak resistance and corresponding depth is developed by integrating empirical prediction formulas based on Bayes’ theorem. The proposed Bayesian methodology effectively refines prediction accuracy by quantifying uncertainties in soil parameters, spudcan geometry, and computational models. Specifically, it establishes prior probability distributions of peak resistance and depth through Monte Carlo simulations, then updates these distributions in real time using field monitoring data during spudcan penetration. The results demonstrate that both the recommended method specified in ISO 19905-1 and an existing deterministic model tend to yield conservative estimates. This approach can significantly improve the predicted accuracy of the peak resistance compared with deterministic methods. Additionally, it shows that the most probable failure zone converges toward the actual punch-through point as more monitoring data is incorporated. The enhanced prediction capability provides critical decision support for mitigating punch-through potential during offshore jack-up operations, thereby advancing the safety and reliability of marine engineering practices. Full article

This paper proposes a novel integer-mixed probabilistic optimal power flow (IM-POPF) strategy for frequency regulation in islanded microgrids under uncertain operating conditions. Existing load-shedding approaches face critical limitations: continuous frameworks fail to reflect the discrete nature of actual load disconnections, while deterministic models inadequately capture the stochastic behavior of renewable generation and load variations. The proposed approach formulates load shedding as an integer optimization problem where variables are categorized as integer (load disconnection decisions at specific nodes) and continuous (voltages, power generation, and steady-state frequency), better reflecting practical power system operations. The key innovation combines integer load-shedding optimization with efficient uncertainty propagation through Unscented Transformation, eliminating the computational burden of Monte Carlo simulations while maintaining accuracy. Load and renewable uncertainties are modeled as normally distributed variables, and probabilistic constraints ensure operational limits compliance with predefined confidence levels. The methodology integrates Differential Evolution metaheuristics with Unscented Transformation for uncertainty propagation, requiring only 137 deterministic evaluations compared to 5000 for Monte Carlo methods. Validation on an IEEE 33-bus radial distribution system configured as an islanded microgrid demonstrates significant advantages over conventional approaches. Results show 36.5-fold computational efficiency improvement while achieving 95.28% confidence level compliance for frequency limits, compared to only 50% for deterministic methods. The integer formulation requires minimal additional load shedding (21.265%) compared to continuous approaches (20.682%), while better aligning with the discrete nature of real-world operational decisions. The proposed IM-POPF framework successfully minimizes total load shedding while maintaining frequency stability under uncertain conditions, providing a computationally efficient solution for real-time microgrid operation. Full article

The Amazon faces significant challenges related to mercury contamination, including naturally elevated concentrations and gold mining activities. Due to mercury’s toxicity and the importance of fish as a protein source for local populations, assessing mercury levels in regional fish is crucial. However, there are gaps in knowledge regarding mercury concentrations in many areas of the Amazon basin. This study aims to synthesize the existing literature on mercury concentrations in fish and the exposure of urban and traditional social groups through fish consumption. A systematic review (1990–2022) was conducted for six fish genera (Cichla spp., Hoplias spp. and Plagioscion spp., Leporinus spp., Semaprochilodus spp., and Schizodon spp.) in the Web of Science (Clarivate Analytics) and Scopus (Elsevier) databases. The database consisted of a total of 46 studies and 455 reports. The distribution of studies in the region was not homogeneous. The most studied regions were the Madeira River sub-basin, while the Paru–Jari basin had no studies. Risk deterministic and probabilistic assessments based on Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee on Food Additives (JECFA, 2007) guidelines showed high risk exposure, especially for traditional communities. Carnivorous fish from lakes and hydroelectric reservoirs, as well as fish from black-water ecosystems, exhibited higher mercury concentrations. In the Amazon region, even if mercury levels in fish muscle do not exceed regulatory limits, the high fish consumption can still elevate health risks for local populations. Monitoring mercury levels across a broader range of fish species, including both carnivorous and non-carnivorous species, especially in communities heavily reliant on fish for their diet, will enable a more accurate risk assessment and provide an opportunity to recommend fish species with lower mercury exposure risk for human consumption. The present study emphasizes the need to protect regions that already exhibit higher levels of mercury—such as lakes, hydroelectric reservoirs, and black-water ecosystems—to ensure food safety and safeguard public health. Full article

Free-space optical (FSO) communication is a promising high-capacity solution for future wireless networks, particularly for backhaul and fronthaul links in 5G and emerging 6G systems. However, it remains highly vulnerable to environmental impairment, especially in arid regions prone to dust storms. While prior studies have addressed atmospheric effects such as fog and turbulence, the specific impact of dust on signal performance remains insufficiently explored. This work presents a probabilistic modeling framework for evaluating the performance of an intensity modulation/direct detection (IM/DD) FSO system under dust storm conditions. Using a controlled laboratory environment, we conducted measurements of the optical signal under dust-induced channel conditions using real-world dust samples collected from an actual dust storm. We identified the Beta distribution as the most accurate model for the measured signal fluctuations. Closed-form expressions were derived for average bit error rate (BER), outage probability, and channel capacity. The close agreement between the analytical, approximate, and simulated results validates the proposed model as a reliable tool for evaluating FSO system performance. The results show that the forward error correction (FEC) BER threshold of ${10}^{-3}$ is achieved at approximately 10.5 dB, and the outage probability drops below ${10}^{-3}$ at 10 dB average SNR. Full article