Probabilistic Prediction of Spudcan Bearing Capacity in Stiff-over-Soft Clay Based on Bayes’ Theorem

During offshore operations of jack-up platforms, the spudcan may experience sudden punch-through failure when penetrating from an overlying stiff clay layer into the underlying soft clay, posing significant risks to platform safety. Conventional punch-through prediction methods, which rely on predetermined soil parameters, exhibit limited accuracy as they fail to account for uncertainties in seabed stratigraphy and soil properties. To address this limitation, based on a database of centrifuge model tests, a probabilistic prediction framework for the peak resistance and corresponding depth is developed by integrating empirical prediction formulas based on Bayes’ theorem. The proposed Bayesian methodology effectively refines prediction accuracy by quantifying uncertainties in soil parameters, spudcan geometry, and computational models. Specifically, it establishes prior probability distributions of peak resistance and depth through Monte Carlo simulations, then updates these distributions in real time using field monitoring data during spudcan penetration. The results demonstrate that both the recommended method specified in ISO 19905-1 and an existing deterministic model tend to yield conservative estimates. This approach can significantly improve the predicted accuracy of the peak resistance compared with deterministic methods. Additionally, it shows that the most probable failure zone converges toward the actual punch-through point as more monitoring data is incorporated. The enhanced prediction capability provides critical decision support for mitigating punch-through potential during offshore jack-up operations, thereby advancing the safety and reliability of marine engineering practices.