Search Results (1,487)

Precipitation changes have significant impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem productivity. However, the effects of precipitation changes on species diversity have been the focus of most previous studies. Little is known about the contributions of different dimensions of biodiversity (species, functional, and phylogenetic diversity) in linking long-term precipitation changes to ecosystem functions. In this study, a randomized design was conducted in the desert steppes of Ningxia, which included three treatments: natural rainfall, precipitation reduced by 50%, and precipitation increased by 50%. After 4 years of treatment, the effects of precipitation changes on aboveground productivity and its underlying mechanisms were explored. The results showed that (1) reduced precipitation significantly decreased phylogenetic diversity and species diversity, but had no significant effect on functional diversity; (2) reduced precipitation significantly decreased aboveground productivity, while increased precipitation significantly enhanced aboveground productivity; and (3) changes in precipitation primarily regulated aboveground productivity by altering soil nitrogen availability and the size of dominant plant species. This study provides important theoretical and practical guidance for the protection and management of desert steppe vegetation under future climate change. Full article

Floods are considered one of the most devastating natural hazards, frequently resulting in substantial loss of lives and widespread damage to infrastructure. In the period of 4–7 September 2023, the region of Thessaly experienced unprecedented rainfall rates due to Storm Daniel, which caused significant flooding and many damages and fatalities. The southeastern areas of Trikala were among the many areas of Thessaly that suffered the effects of these rainfalls. In this research, a flood susceptibility assessment (FSA) of the broader area surrounding the settlement of Megala Kalyvia is carried out through the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) as a multicriteria analysis method, using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The purpose of this study is to evaluate the prolonged flood susceptibility indicated within the area due to the past floods of 2018, 2020, and 2023. To determine the flood-prone areas, seven factors were used to determine the influence of flood susceptibility, namely distance from rivers and channels, drainage density, distance from confluences of rivers or channels, distance from intersections between channels and roads, land use–land cover, slope, and elevation. The flood susceptibility was classified as very high and high across most parts of the study area. Finally, a comparison was made between the modeled flood susceptibility and the maximum extent of past flood events, focusing on that of 2023. The results confirmed the effectiveness of the flood susceptibility assessment map and highlighted the need to adapt to the changing climate patterns observed in September 2023. Full article

Vegetation dynamics are complexly influenced by multiple factors such as climate, human activities, and topography. In recent years, the frequency, intensity, and diversity of human activities have increased, placing substantial pressure on the growth of vegetation. Arid and semi-arid regions are particularly sensitive to climate change, and climate change and large-scale ecological restoration have led to significant changes in the dynamic of dryland vegetation. However, few studies have explored the nonlinear relationships between these factors and vegetation dynamic. In this study, we integrated trend analysis (using the Mann–Kendall test and Theil–Sen estimation) and machine learning algorithms (XGBoost-SHAP model) based on long time-series remote sensing data from 2001 to 2020 to quantify the nonlinear response patterns and threshold effects of bioclimatic variables, topographic features, soil attributes, and anthropogenic factors on vegetation dynamic. The results revealed the following key findings: (1) The kNDVI in the study area showed an overall significant increasing trend (p < 0.01) during the observation period, of which 26.7% of the area showed a significant increase. (2) The water content index (Bio 23, 19.6%), the change in land use (15.2%), multi-year average precipitation (pre, 15.0%), population density (13.2%), and rainfall seasonality (Bio 15, 10.9%) were the key factors driving the dynamic change of vegetation, with the combined contribution of natural factors amounting to 64.3%. (3) Among the topographic factors, altitude had a more significant effect on vegetation dynamics, with higher altitude regions less likely to experience vegetation greening. Both natural and anthropogenic factors exhibited nonlinear responses and interactive effects, contributing to the observed dynamic trends. This study provides valuable insights into the driving mechanisms behind the condition of vegetation in arid and semi-arid regions of China and, by extension, in other arid regions globally. Full article

The highly stochastic nature of rainfall presents significant challenges for the accurate prediction of its time series. To enhance the prediction performance of non-stationary rainfall time series, this study proposes a hybrid deep learning forecasting framework—VMD-IWMA-BiLSTM—that integrates Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD), Improved Whale Migration Algorithm (IWMA), and Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory network (BiLSTM). Firstly, VMD is employed to decompose the original rainfall series into multiple modes, extracting Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) with more stable frequency characteristics. Secondly, IWMA is utilized to globally optimize multiple hyperparameters of the BiLSTM model, enhancing its ability to capture complex nonlinear relationships and long-term dependencies. Finally, experimental validation is conducted using daily rainfall data from 2020 to 2024 at the Xinzheng National Meteorological Observatory. The results demonstrate that the proposed framework outperforms traditional models such as LSTM, ARIMA, SVM, and LSSVM in terms of prediction accuracy. This research provides new insights and effective technical pathways for improving rainfall time series prediction accuracy and addressing the challenges posed by high randomness. Full article

Climate warming poses significant challenges for the sustainable management of natural water resources, making efficient planning and usage essential. This study evaluates the water requirements, irrigation demand, and rainfall deficits for two key vegetable crops, carrot and white cabbage, under projected climate scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the period 2031–2100. The analysis was conducted for Kraków and Rzeszów Counties in southern Poland using projected monthly temperature and precipitation data from the Klimada 2.0 portal. Potential evapotranspiration (ETp) during the growing season (May–October) was estimated using Treder’s empirical model and the crop coefficient method adapted for Polish conditions. The reference period for comparison was 1951–2020. The results reveal a significant upward trend in water demand for both crops, with the highest increases under the RCP 8.5 scenario–seasonal ETp values reaching up to 517 mm for cabbage and 497 mm for carrot. Rainfall deficits are projected to intensify, especially during July and August, with greater shortages in Rzeszów County compared to Kraków County. Irrigation demand varies depending on soil type and drought severity, becoming critical in medium and very dry years. These findings underscore the necessity of adapting irrigation strategies and water resource management to ensure sustainable vegetable production under changing climate conditions. The data provide valuable guidance for farmers, advisors, and policymakers in planning effective irrigation infrastructure and optimizing water-use efficiency in southern Poland. Full article

African hydrological systems are incredibly complex and highly sensitive to climate variability. This review synthesizes observational data, remote sensing, and climate modeling to understand the interactions between fluvial processes, water cycle dynamics, and anthropogenic pressures. Currently, these systems are experiencing accelerating warming (+0.3 °C/decade), leading to more intense hydrological extremes and regionally varied responses. For example, East Africa has shown reversed temperature–moisture correlations since the Holocene onset, while West African rivers demonstrate nonlinear runoff sensitivity (a threefold reduction per unit decline in rainfall). Land-use and land-cover changes (LULCC) are as impactful as climate change, with analysis from 1959–2014 revealing extensive conversion of primary non-forest land and a more than sixfold increase in the intensity of pastureland expansion by the early 21st century. Future projections, exemplified by studies in basins like Ethiopia’s Gilgel Gibe and Ghana’s Vea, indicate escalating aridity with significant reductions in surface runoff and groundwater recharge, increasing aquifer stress. These findings underscore the need for integrated adaptation strategies that leverage remote sensing, nature-based solutions, and transboundary governance to build resilient water futures across Africa’s diverse basins. Full article

Background: Arthropod-borne diseases primarily affect tropical and subtropical regions, exhibiting seasonal patterns that peak during hot and rainy months when conditions favor mosquito vector proliferation. Factors such as high temperatures, elevated humidity, rainfall, urbanization, and the abundance of natural and artificial breeding sites influence Aedes vector dynamics. In this context, arboviruses pose significant public health challenges, likely worsened by global warming. In Brazil, Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (Linnaeus, 1762) is the primary vector for yellow fever, dengue, chikungunya, and Zika. Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus (Skuse, 1894) is an important global arbovirus vector and is considered a potential vector in Brazil. Entomological surveillance of these species often uses oviposition traps targeting immature stages. Evaluating studies that use ovitraps to collect Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus egg is essential for improving mosquito surveillance strategies. This study systematically reviewed peer-reviewed articles on ovitrap-based surveillance of Aedes mosquitoes in Brazil, published in Portuguese and English from 2012 to 2022. The findings suggest that ovitraps are an effective method for detecting the presence or absence of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, serving as a reliable proxy for estimating mosquito abundance in Brazilian contexts. Full article

Climate change is projected to significantly alter hydrological conditions across the Northern Hemisphere, with increased precipitation variability, more intense rainfall events, and earlier, rain-driven spring floods in regions like northern Sweden. These changes will affect both natural ecosystems and hydropower-regulated rivers, particularly during ecologically sensitive periods such as the grayling spawning season in late spring. This study examines the impact of extreme spring flow conditions on grayling spawning habitats by analyzing historical runoff data and simulating high-flow events using a 2D hydraulic model in Delft3D FM. Results show that previously suitable spawning areas became too deep or experienced flow velocities beyond ecological thresholds, rendering them unsuitable. These hydrodynamic shifts could have cascading effects on aquatic vegetation and food availability, ultimately threatening the survival and reproductive success of grayling populations. The findings underscore the importance of integrating ecological considerations into future water management and hydropower operation strategies in the face of climate-driven flow variability. Full article

Rockfalls, among the most common natural disasters, pose risks such as traffic congestion, casualties, and substantial property damage. Guizhou Province, with China’s fourth-longest highway network, features mountainous terrain prone to frequent rockfall incidents annually. Consequently, assessing highway rockfall risks in Guizhou Province is crucial for safeguarding the lives and travel of residents. This study evaluates highway rockfall risk through three key components: susceptibility, hazard, and vulnerability. Susceptibility was assessed using information content and logistic regression methods, considering factors such as elevation, slope, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), aspect, distance from fault, relief amplitude, lithology, and rock weathering index (RWI). Hazard assessment utilized a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP), focusing on average annual rainfall and daily maximum rainfall. Socioeconomic factors, including GDP, population density, and land use type, were incorporated to gauge vulnerability. Integration of these assessments via a risk matrix yielded comprehensive highway rockfall risk profiles. Results indicate a predominantly high risk across Guizhou Province, with high-risk zones covering 41.19% of the area. Spatially, the western regions exhibit higher risk levels compared to eastern areas. Notably, the Bijie region features over 70% of its highway mileage categorized as high risk or above. Logistic regression identified distance from fault lines as the most negatively correlated factor affecting highway rockfall susceptibility, whereas elevation gradient demonstrated a minimal influence. This research provides valuable insights for decision-makers in formulating highway rockfall prevention and control strategies. Full article

With global warming and accelerated urbanization, urban flooding became one of the top ten international natural disasters in 2024. In order to accurately and efficiently simulate the impact of upstream river water transport on downstream river inundation under heavy rainfall scenarios, this study proposes a river inundation water depth calculation model based on a deep ensemble learning approach. The model integrates flood inundation data from hydrodynamic models with machine learning techniques, introducing a matrix-based deep ensemble learning method. The results demonstrate superior prediction accuracy, with an RMSE of 0.04 and R² of 0.95. Validation using typical rainfall data from 6 July 2022 shows that the model achieves a prediction error of less than 0.15 m across 99.8% of the domain, outperforming standalone models. These findings confirm that the deep ensemble model effectively captures the complex relationships between rainfall, terrain, and flow dynamics, providing reliable water depth predictions in data-scarce regions through multi-coupling modeling based on river characteristics. Full article

The context of global climate change, water stress has a significant impact on the ecological function and landscape value of urban greening shrubs. In this study, three typical greening shrubs (Euonymus japonicus, Ligustrum × vicaryi, and Berberis thunbergii var. atropurpurea) in North China were subjected to a two-year field-controlled experiment (2022–2023) with four water treatments: full irrigation, deficit irrigation, natural rainfall, and extreme drought. The key findings are as follows: (1) Extreme drought reduced the color indices substantially—the G_CC of E. japonicus decreased by 40% (2023); the R_CC of B. thunbergii var. atropurpurea declined by 35% (2022); and the color indices of L. × vicaryi remained stable (variation < 15%). (2) Early-season soil water content (SWC) strongly correlated with the color index of E. japonicus (r² = 0.42, p < 0.05) but weakly with B. thunbergii (r² = 0.28), suggesting species-specific drought-tolerance mechanisms like reduced leaf area. (3) Deficit irrigation (SWC ≈ 40%) maintained color indices between fully irrigated and drought-stressed levels. Notably, B. thunbergii retained high redness (R_CC > 0.8) at an SWC ≈ 40%; E. japonicus required an SWC > 60% to preserve greenness (G_CC). The research results provide a scientific basis for urban greening plant screening and water-saving irrigation strategies, and expand the application scenarios of color coordinates in plant physiological and ecological research. Full article

Accurate precipitation forecasting remains a critical challenge due to the nonlinear and multifactorial nature of rainfall dynamics. This is particularly important in arid regions like Tamanghasset, where precipitation is the primary driver of agricultural viability and water resource management. This study evaluates the performance of several time series models for monthly rainfall prediction, including the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), Exponential Smoothing State Space Model (ETS), Seasonal and Trend decomposition using Loess with ETS (STL-ETS), Trigonometric Box–Cox transform with ARMA errors, Trend and Seasonal components (TBATS), and neural network autoregressive (NNAR) models. Historical monthly precipitation data from 1953 to 2020 were used to train and test the models, with lagged observations serving as input features. Among the approaches considered, the NNAR model exhibited superior performance, as indicated by uncorrelated residuals and enhanced forecast accuracy. This suggests that NNAR effectively captures the nonlinear temporal patterns inherent in the precipitation series. Based on the best-performing model, rainfall was projected for the year 2021, providing actionable insights for regional hydrological and agricultural planning. The results highlight the relevance of neural network-based time series models for climate forecasting in data-scarce, climate-sensitive regions. Full article

As one component of a study to improve Medicago spp. germplasm in eastern Australia, fifteen phenotypic and agronomic attributes were recorded for 4715 plants grown from the seed of 90 accessions of the widely naturalized pasture legume Medicago polymorpha from 90 sites in eight regions of inland New South Wales. The species expressed wide polymorphism. However, many leaflet attributes were associated with specific climate and soil characteristics, which varied from east to west across the collection zone. Discriminant analysis showed that accessions from the four most northern (summer dominant rainfall) and western (arid–semiarid) regions (Group A) differed from accessions from the most southern, temperate (winter dominant rainfall) and eastern (higher rainfall) regions (Group B). Group A flowered earlier and had shorter pod spines. Group B had lower plant vigor. Regions from which Group A accessions were collected had higher soil pH, lower winter rainfall, and higher minimum winter temperature than Group B regions. The diversity in the population, particularly the difference in flowering times among accessions collected from drier, warmer regions and those from more mesic, cooler regions, and the wide variation in flowering time measured among plants grown from accessions within all collection regions, is likely to ensure the long-term persistence of M. polymorpha in a changing climate. Elite lines were subsequently identified and lodged in National and International Genebanks for future research. Full article

Expansive soils, characterized by the presence of surface and subsurface cracks, over-consolidation, and swell-shrink properties, present significant challenges to slope stability in geotechnical engineering. Despite extensive research, preventing geohazards associated with expansive soils remains unresolved. This study investigates shallow sliding failures in slopes of highly expansive soils induced by rainfall, using model tests to explore deformation and mechanical behavior under cyclic wetting and drying conditions, focusing on the interaction between soil properties and environmental factors. Model tests were conducted in a wedge-shaped box filled with Nanyang expansive clay from Henan, China, which is classified as high-plasticity clay (CH) according to the Unified Soil Classification System (USCS). The soil was compacted in four layers to maintain a 1:2 slope ratio (i.e., 1 vertical to 2 horizontal), which reflects typical expansive soil slope configurations observed in the field. Monitoring devices, including moisture sensors, pressure transducers, and displacement sensors, recorded changes in soil moisture, stress, and deformation. A static treatment phase allowed natural crack development to simulate real-world conditions. Key findings revealed that shear failure propagated along pre-existing cracks and weak structural discontinuities, supporting the progressive failure theory in shallow sliding. Cracks significantly influenced water infiltration, creating localized stress concentrations and deformation. Atmospheric conditions and wet-dry cycles were crucial, as increased moisture content reduced soil suction and weakened the slope’s strength. These results enhance understanding of expansive soil slope failure mechanisms and provide a theoretical foundation for developing improved stabilization techniques. Full article

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) developed the concept of Water Quality Volume (WQv) as a Best Management Practice (BMP) to treat the first 25.4 mm of rainfall in urban areas, aiming to capture approximately 90% of annual runoff. However, applying this urban-based standard—designed for areas with over 50% imperviousness—to rural regions with higher infiltration and pervious surfaces may result in overestimated facility capacities. In Korea, a uniform WQv criterion of 5 mm is applied nationwide, regardless of land use or hydrological conditions. This study examines the suitability of this 5 mm standard in rural catchments using the Hydrological Simulation Program–Fortran (HSPF). Eight sub-watersheds in the target area were simulated under varying cumulative runoff depths (1–10 mm) to assess pollutant loads and runoff characteristics. First-flush effects were most evident below 5 mm, with variation depending on land cover. Nature-based treatment systems for constructed wetlands were modeled for each sub-watershed, and their effectiveness was evaluated using Flow Duration Curves (FDCs) and Load Duration Curves (LDCs). The findings suggest that the uniform 5 mm WQv criterion may result in overdesign in rural watersheds and highlight the need for region-specific standards that consider local land-use and hydrological variability. Full article