Special Issue "Rethinking Novel Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting Due to COVID-19: Uncertainty, Structural Breaks and Data"

A special issue of Sustainability (ISSN 2071-1050).

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 30 April 2021.

Special Issue Editors

Dr. Vicente Ramos
Guest Editor
Department of Applied Economics, University of the Balearic Islands, 07122 Palma, Balearic Islands, Spain
Interests: tourism economics; demand forecasting; competitiveness; smart destinations; applied econometrics
Prof. Dr. Michael McAleer
Guest Editor
Department of Finance, College of Management, Asia University, Taichung 41354, Taiwan Discipline of Business Analytics, University of Sydney Business School, Sydney 2006, Australia Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam, 3062 Rotterdam, The Netherlands Department of Economic Analysis and ICAE, Complutense University of Madrid, 28040 Madrid, Spain Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Canterbury, Christchurch 8041, New Zealand Institute of Advanced Sciences, Yokohama National University, Yokohama 240-8501, Japan
Interests: theoretical and applied econometrics; financial econometrics; financial economics; finance, theoretical and applied statistics; time series analysis; forecasting; risk management; energy economics and finance; applied mathematics
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Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Due to the SARS-CoV-2 virus and the resulting COVID-19 disease, many will be reading this under some type of self-isolation or mandated confinement or quarantine, or may have experienced it recently. Times of great uncertainty have a huge impact on every aspect of our lives. After we eventually overcome the health, medical, social, environmental, economic, and financial crisis which is capturing all of our present thoughts and actions, it will be necessary to implement strategies to recover from the catastrophe that this once-in-a-century phenomenon has left on our devastated planet.

Obviously, the limitations of mobility and the application of social distancing measures have had significant impacts on the tourism industry. Unlike the other major industry that contributes substantially to the world GDP (i.e., energy), tourism has been one of the most severely affected industries. The world has never experienced such a long period in which tourism was literally shut down for such an extended period. Consequently, tourism will face many challenges in the coming months and years to recover from the devastation of COVID-19.

In this context, this Special Issue focuses on the challenges faced in providing novel tourism demand modelling and forecasting methods post COVID-19. Any strategies need to be based on the behavior of inbound and outbound tourists. The primary purpose is to shed light on how we can provide insights into many important aspects of tourism demand. This covers a broad scope from theoretical to empirical contributions, as well as other important considerations, such as:

  • Behavioral change;
  • Uncertainty, risk, risk perception;
  • Related health risks;
  • Structural breaks;
  • Duration of shocks;
  • Limited data models and availability of data;
  • Early and advanced indicators;
  • Hybrid forecasting;
  • Forecast based on scenarios;
  • Arrivals versus revenues;
  • Behavior of specific segments;
  • Case studies from different origins and destinations;
  • Impact of policy and industry measures;
  • Linkages between tourism and economy;
  • Income and price elasticities.

As the conventional modelling and forecasting of tourism demand is not likely to hold during and after the coronavirus pandemic, with or without a safe, reliable, efficient, and accessible vaccine, novel modelling and forecasting methods need to be developed. This is the intended purpose of the present Special Issue.

Dr. Vicente Ramos
Prof. Dr. Chia-Lin Chang
Prof. Dr. Michael McAleer
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All papers will be peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Sustainability is an international peer-reviewed open access semimonthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 1800 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.


  • COVID-19
  • sustainable tourism
  • uncertainty
  • structural break
  • risk
  • behavioral change
  • data sources
  • scenarios

Published Papers (1 paper)

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Open AccessEditorial
A Charter for Sustainable Tourism after COVID-19
Sustainability 2020, 12(9), 3671; https://doi.org/10.3390/su12093671 - 01 May 2020
Cited by 2
The SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes the COVID-19 disease is highly infectious and contagious. The long-term consequences for individuals are as yet unknown, while the long-term effects on the international community will be dramatic. COVID-19 has changed the world forever in every imaginable respect [...] Read more.
The SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes the COVID-19 disease is highly infectious and contagious. The long-term consequences for individuals are as yet unknown, while the long-term effects on the international community will be dramatic. COVID-19 has changed the world forever in every imaginable respect and has impacted heavily on the international travel, tourism demand, and hospitality industry, which is one of the world’s largest employers and is highly sensitive to significant shocks like the COVID-19 pandemic. It is essential to investigate how the industry will recover after COVID-19 and how the industry can be made sustainable in a dramatically changed world. This paper presents a charter for tourism, travel, and hospitality after COVID-19 as a contribution to the industry. Full article
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