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Assessing Vulnerability and Resilience to Climate Change Impacts in the Mediterranean Region

A special issue of Sustainability (ISSN 2071-1050). This special issue belongs to the section "Air, Climate Change and Sustainability".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (30 June 2021) | Viewed by 17199

Special Issue Editor

Dr. Christos Giannakopoulos

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, P. Penteli, Athens,152 36, Greece

Special Issue Information

The Mediterranean is one of the areas of the world that is most sensitive to climate change and yet is also one of the most complex. The mild Mediterranean climate and the proximity to the sea make it attractive to people, resulting in a disproportionately high conversion of ecosystems for agricultural, developmental, touristic, and other human uses. Climate change poses significant challenges to the Mediterranean area and is expected to worsen the already acute situations present in the region. Different subregions of the Mediterranean will witness different changes to their climate. Essential resources like fresh water, soil, and agricultural production may become endangered, while forest ecosystems, land and coastal infrastructures, air quality, and the energy and tourism sector will be challenged by increased physical risks. Extreme weather, floods, wildfires, and droughts pose a risk to the future environment and human activities. The risks and costs from climate change are gradually becoming more substantial. Climate change is strongly interconnected with a multitude of other environmental and social risks (e.g., air pollution, deforestation, thermal stress, energy supply), which means that the threat from climate change is likely to become progressively larger, unless further action is taken. Policies that moderate the impacts of climate change are referred to as adaptation policies and consist of taking appropriate actions to address the expected damage and adverse impacts of climate change. Initiatives such as climate services include climate-related data and information (e.g., projections, trends, development and evaluation of solutions) that support adaptation, mitigation, and disaster risk management could be of use for the Mediterranean society at large.

This regional Special Issue presents original research studies on topics related to climate change impacts and adaptation policies in the sectors most vulnerable to climate change in the Mediterranean area. The main focus is on innovative approaches and climate services that contribute to achieving a sustainable future environment in the Mediterranean region. 

 

This Special Issue focuses on research into the impact of climate change on sectors vulnerable to climate change in the Mediterranean, as well as adaptation planning. Suggested topics include: 

  • Focus on records of the past and current state of the Mediterranean climate system, and/or extremes (e.g., floods, drought), and their link to global environmental change;
  • Impacts of climate change on urban and rural areas of the Mediterranean through mapping projected climate parameters and indices of specific Mediterranean locations;
  • Modeling of climate change, the impacts, and adaptation assessments in the sectors of agriculture, tourism, energy, health, and forest fires;
  • Adaptation responses targeting sectors such as water resources management, the management of forest ecosystems/fire risk, agriculture, health/thermal stress, air quality, the energy sector, and the tourism sector;
  • Climate-related innovation tools (e.g., web-GIS) to support decision-making for adaptation planning and strategies in several sectors vulnerable to climate change in the Mediterranean area.

Dr. Christos Giannakopoulos
Guest Editor

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Sustainability is an international peer-reviewed open access semimonthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2400 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • Mediterranean
  • regional climate modeling
  • extremes
  • impacts
  • adaptation planning
  • decision support tools
  • climate resilience

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Published Papers (5 papers)

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Research

17 pages, 1416 KiB  
Article
Climate Change Scenarios and Their Implications on the Energy Performance of Hellenic Non-Residential Buildings
by Kalliopi G. Droutsa, Simon Kontoyiannidis, Constantinos A. Balaras, Athanassios A. Argiriou, Elena G. Dascalaki, Konstantinos V. Varotsos and Christos Giannakopoulos
Sustainability 2021, 13(23), 13005; https://doi.org/10.3390/su132313005 - 24 Nov 2021
Cited by 5 | Viewed by 2155
Abstract
It is important to understand how the climate is changing in order to prepare for the future, adapt if necessary, and, most importantly, take proper precautionary measures to alleviate major negative impacts. This work investigates the potential impacts of climate change on the [...] Read more.
It is important to understand how the climate is changing in order to prepare for the future, adapt if necessary, and, most importantly, take proper precautionary measures to alleviate major negative impacts. This work investigates the potential impacts of climate change on the anticipated energy performance of the existing Hellenic building stock until the end of the century. The assessment considers average climatic projections for two future time periods, one for the near and one for the distant future, following two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The first one is a baseline scenario (RCP8.5) representing the highest greenhouse gas emissions. The second is an intermediate stabilization scenario (RCP4.5), assuming the imposition of conservative emissions mitigation policies. The future climate data are generated for 62 cities throughout Greece. As a case study, the work focuses on Hellenic non-residential (NR) whole buildings, analyzing available data collected during about 2500 energy audits of real NR buildings. The available data are used to assess the buildings’ heating and cooling demand and energy use. The annual average air temperature for Greece in 2050 is projected to increase by 1.5 K for the RCP4.5 scenario and by 1.9 K for the RCP8.5 scenario. In 2090, the increase is estimated to reach 1.7 K and 4.2 K, respectively. Accordingly, if the existing NR buildings are not renovated, the average heating energy use is expected to decrease by 22–26% in 2050 and by 23–52% in 2090. On the other hand, the average cooling energy use is expected to increase by 24–30% in 2050 and by 28–66% in 2090. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Assessing Vulnerability and Resilience to Climate Change Impacts in the Mediterranean Region)
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22 pages, 44288 KiB  
Article
Investigating the Climate-Related Risk of Forest Fires for Mediterranean Islands’ Blue Economy
by Valentina Bacciu, Maria Hatzaki, Anna Karali, Adeline Cauchy, Christos Giannakopoulos, Donatella Spano and Elodie Briche
Sustainability 2021, 13(18), 10004; https://doi.org/10.3390/su131810004 - 7 Sep 2021
Cited by 12 | Viewed by 3052
Abstract
The Mediterranean islands’ blue economy and, more specifically, the tourism sector, largely regulate Europe’s gross product. Climate change threatens the ecological, societal, and economic sustainability of the islands in many ways, with increasing wildfires making up one of the most critical components of [...] Read more.
The Mediterranean islands’ blue economy and, more specifically, the tourism sector, largely regulate Europe’s gross product. Climate change threatens the ecological, societal, and economic sustainability of the islands in many ways, with increasing wildfires making up one of the most critical components of the climate change impacts on tourism. Here, we aim to identify and assess forest fire vulnerability and risk due to climate change for seven Mediterranean islands through the application of the “impact chain” conceptual framework. The backbone of this approach requires the integration of quantitative and qualitative data according to the three main risk components sensu the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), i.e., hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, with a structured participatory approach involving stakeholders and experts. Our results illustrate the islands with high potential for improvement in terms of adapting capacity and, by indicating the contribution of the different risk components, highlight the main environmental and socio-economic elements that affect the islands’ vulnerability and risk under climate change. The approach’s potentials and constraints are discussed, suggesting that the method can be handily used to point out the priorities that must be addressed by mitigation and adaptation policies and measures at the island level. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Assessing Vulnerability and Resilience to Climate Change Impacts in the Mediterranean Region)
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19 pages, 4860 KiB  
Article
Climate Change and Thermal Comfort in Top Tourist Destinations—The Case of Santorini (Greece)
by George Katavoutas, Dimitra Founda, Gianna Kitsara and Christos Giannakopoulos
Sustainability 2021, 13(16), 9107; https://doi.org/10.3390/su13169107 - 14 Aug 2021
Cited by 9 | Viewed by 5160
Abstract
The Mediterranean area is one of the most visited tourist destinations of the world, but it has also been recognized as one of the most vulnerable to climate change areas worldwide with respect to increased thermal risk. The study focuses on a top [...] Read more.
The Mediterranean area is one of the most visited tourist destinations of the world, but it has also been recognized as one of the most vulnerable to climate change areas worldwide with respect to increased thermal risk. The study focuses on a top worldwide tourist destination of the Mediterranean, Santorini Island in Greece, and aims to assess the past, present and future thermal environment in the island based on the advanced Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). The study utilizes historical observations capturing past (late 19th to early 20th century) and more recent (1982–2019) time periods, while future projections are realized based on four regional climate models (RCMs) under the weak mitigation scenario (RCP4.5) and the non-mitigation scenario with high emissions (RCP8.5). The frequency of cold stress conditions at midday decreases during winter and early spring months by up to 19.8% (January) in the recent period compared to the historical one, while heat stress conditions increase in summer by up to 22.4% (August). Future projections suggest progressive shifts of the UTCI towards higher values in the future and an increase in the exposure time under heat stress depending on the RCM and adopted scenario. The increase in moderate and strong heat stress conditions is mainly expected during the summer months (June, July, August); nevertheless, a noticeable increase is also foreseen in September and May. The highest occurrences of favorable (no thermal stress) conditions are also projected to shift by one month, from June to May and from September to October, in the future. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Assessing Vulnerability and Resilience to Climate Change Impacts in the Mediterranean Region)
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22 pages, 7470 KiB  
Article
Spatiotemporal Analysis of the Frost Regime in the Iberian Peninsula in the Context of Climate Change (1975–2018)
by Abelardo García-Martín, Luis L. Paniagua, Francisco J. Moral, Francisco J. Rebollo and María A. Rozas
Sustainability 2021, 13(15), 8491; https://doi.org/10.3390/su13158491 - 29 Jul 2021
Cited by 11 | Viewed by 2574
Abstract
Climate change is having many effects in the agricultural sector, which are being studied worldwide. Undoubtedly, warmer winters and earlier springs produce changes in frost regimes and severity that will affect the sustainability of agricultural production in the area. The Mediterranean region and [...] Read more.
Climate change is having many effects in the agricultural sector, which are being studied worldwide. Undoubtedly, warmer winters and earlier springs produce changes in frost regimes and severity that will affect the sustainability of agricultural production in the area. The Mediterranean region and the Iberian Peninsula (IP) are among the areas where the greatest impact of climate change is expected. Daily data from 68 weather stations of the IP belonging to the European Climate Assessment and Dataset (1975–2018) were used to conduct a spatiotemporal study of the frost regime. The variables calculated include the probability of three frost types according to their severity, frost day, mean absolute minimum yearly temperature, first frost day, last frost day, and frost-free period. These variables were integrated into a geographic information system, which allowed the graphical visualization of their patterns using of geostatistical interpolation techniques (kriging). Changes in frost variables were investigated using the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator. A general reduction in the number of frosts per year is observed (values between −0.04- and −0.8-day frosts per year), as well as an increase in the mean absolute minimum temperature (values between 0.04 and 0.10 °C per year), with very high significant trends throughout the territory. The reduction in the number of frosts is more pronounced at a higher elevation. Frost dates vary greatly due to the orographic characteristics of the IP. The generalized trend is of a significant delay of the autumn frosts (values between 0.4 and 1.06 days/year), as well as early spring frosts (between −0.429 and −1.29 days/year), and as a consequence a longer frost-free period, all changes were much stronger than those found in other regions of the world. These effects of climate change must be mitigated by modifying species, varieties, and cultivation techniques to guarantee sustainable agriculture. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Assessing Vulnerability and Resilience to Climate Change Impacts in the Mediterranean Region)
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20 pages, 2809 KiB  
Article
A Prospective Study for the Mitigation of the Climate Change Effects: The Case of the North Aegean Region of Greece
by Ioannis Chatziioannou, Efthimios Bakogiannis, Charalampos Kyriakidis and Luis Alvarez-Icaza
Sustainability 2020, 12(24), 10420; https://doi.org/10.3390/su122410420 - 13 Dec 2020
Cited by 4 | Viewed by 3127
Abstract
One of the biggest challenges of our time is climate change. Every day, at different places of the world, the planet sends alarming messages about the enormous transformations it is experiencing due to human-based activities. The latter are responsible for changing weather patterns [...] Read more.
One of the biggest challenges of our time is climate change. Every day, at different places of the world, the planet sends alarming messages about the enormous transformations it is experiencing due to human-based activities. The latter are responsible for changing weather patterns that threaten food production, energy production and energy consumption, the desertification of land, the displacement of people and animals because of food and water shortages due to the reductions in rainfall, natural disasters and rising sea levels. The effects of climate change affect us all, and if drastic measures are not considered in a timely manner, it will be more difficult and costly to adapt to the aforementioned effects in the future. Considering this context, the aim of this work is to implement a prospective study/structural analysis to the identified sectors of a regional plan of adaptation to climate change so as to promote the resilience of the region against the negative phenomena generated by the climate crisis. This was achieved in two steps: first, we identified the relationships between the strategic sectors of the plan and organized them in order of importance. Second, we assessed the effectiveness of several public policies oriented towards a city’s resilience according to their impact upon the strategic sectors of the plan and the co-benefits generated by their implementation for society. The results highlight that the most essential sectors for the mitigation of climate change are flood risk management, built environment, forest ecosystem management, human health, tourism and rise in sea level. As a consequence, the most important measures for the resilience of the North Aegean Region against climate change are the ones related to the preparation of strategic master plans for flood protection projects. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Assessing Vulnerability and Resilience to Climate Change Impacts in the Mediterranean Region)
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