- Article
Cognitive reserve reflects the brain’s capacity to maintain function despite ageing or pathology, potentially delaying cognitive decline. Its timing and dynamic effects on memory remain unclear. We analyzed longitudinal data from 10,203 participants in the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, assessed across nine waves over a follow-up period up to 18 years. Verbal episodic memory was assessed using immediate and delayed recall from a ten-word task (Total Recall, range 0–20). Cognitive reserve was indexed by educational attainment, physical activity, and social engagement. A Bayesian nonlinear mixed-effects change-point model estimated effects on pre-decline memory performance, onset of decline, and deterioration rate. Compared with less than upper secondary education, tertiary education was associated with higher pre-decline memory performance (posterior median [PM] = 2.85 words; 95% credible interval [CrI]: 2.70–3.01) and a later estimated onset of decline (PM = 3.11 years; 95% CrI: 1.12–5.19), but a steeper subsequent rate of deterioration. Higher physical activity at wave 4, compared with sedentary activity, and social engagement were associated with a later estimated onset of memory decline (2.64 and 2.04 years, respectively). Women showed higher pre-decline memory performance and a later estimated onset of accelerated decline (PM = 3.82 years; 95% CrI: 2.43–5.25), but a steeper subsequent rate of deterioration. These findings are consistent with the cognitive reserve hypothesis, although the observational design and the timing of exposure assessments limit causal interpretation.
13 November 2026






