Infectious Disease Reports

A simple model for predicting Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic is presented in this study. The prediction model is presented based on the classic Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model, which has been widely used to describe the epidemic time evolution of infectious diseases. The original version of the Kermack and McKendrick model is used in this study. This included the daily rates of infection spread by infected individuals when these individuals interact with a susceptible population, which is denoted by the parameter β, while the recovery rates to determine the number of recovered individuals is expressed by the parameter γ. The parameters estimation of the three-compartment SIR model is determined through using a mathematical sequential reduction process from the logistic growth model equation. As the parameters are the basic characteristics of epidemic time evolution, the model is always tested and applied to the latest actual data of confirmed COVID-19 cases. It seems that this simple model is still reliable enough to describe the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic, not only qualitatively but also quantitatively with a high degree of correlation between actual data and prediction results. Therefore, it is possible to apply this model to predict cases of COVID-19 in several countries. In addition, the parameter characteristics of the classic SIR model can provide information on how these parameters reflect the efforts by each country to prevent the spread of the COVID-19 outbreak. This is clearly seen from the changes of the parameters shown by the classic SIR model. Full article

A model of a COVID-19 epidemic is used to predict the effectiveness of vaccination in the US. The model incorporates key features of COVID-19 epidemics: asymptomatic and symptomatic infectiousness, reported and unreported cases data, and social measures implemented to decrease infection transmission. The model analyzes the effectiveness of vaccination in terms of vaccination efficiency, vaccination scheduling, and relaxation of social measures that decrease disease transmission. The model demonstrates that the subsiding of the epidemic as vaccination is implemented depends critically on the scale of relaxation of social measures that reduce disease transmission. Full article

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate the possible difference in the SARS-CoV-2 viral load between asymptomatic and symptomatic COVID-19 patients. Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines were followed in abstracting data and assessing validity. We searched MEDLINE, Scopus, Web of Science and Google Scholar for all investigations in the English language, reporting data on the threshold cycle (C_t) from real-time RT-PCR assays for the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp), envelope (E) and nucleocapsid (N) SARS-CoV-2 genes in asymptomatic and symptomatic COVID-19 patients. Results: Overall, 703 COVID-19 patients (553 symptomatic and 150 asymptomatic) were analyzed. Five investigations reported the mean age of patients, evidencing that asymptomatic patients were younger than symptomatic patients (34.0 vs. 40.3 years, respectively). Pooled data regarding the levels of expression of the RdRp gene revealed no significant difference between symptomatic and asymptomatic subjects. Similarly, no differences were observed comparing the mean C_t values for the E and N genes. Based on real-time RT-PCR data, no differences exist in the viral load between symptomatic and asymptomatic COVID-19 subjects considering C_t values for RdRp, E and N genes’ expression. Asymptomatic subjects may represent a reservoir of the infection and significantly contribute to the maintenance of the pandemic. Full article

We previously investigated the role of Nitazoxanide (NTZ), a thiazolide endowed with antiviral and antiparasitic activity, in HIV-1 infection. NTZ treatment in primary isolated PBMCs was able to reduce HIV-1 infection in vitro by inducing the expression of a number of type-I interferon-stimulated genes. Among them, NTZ was able to induce cholesterol-25-hydroxylase (CH25H), which is involved in cholesterol metabolism. In the present study, we wanted to deepen our knowledge about the antiviral mechanism of action of NTZ. Indeed, by inducing CH25H, which catalyzes the formation of 25-hydroxycholesterol from cholesterol, NTZ treatment repressed cholesterol biosynthetic pathways and promoted cholesterol mobilization and efflux from the cell. Such effects were even more pronounced upon stimulation with FLU antigens in combination. It is already well known how lipid metabolism and virus replication are tightly interconnected; thus, it is not surprising that the antiviral immune response employs genes related to cholesterol metabolism. Indeed, NTZ was able to modulate cholesterol metabolism in vitro and, by doing so, enhance the antiviral response. These results give us the chance to speculate about the suitability of NTZ as adjuvant for induction of specific natural immunity. Moreover, the putative application of NTZ to alimentary-related diseases should be investigated. Full article

Background: The aim of the study was to examine the treatment outcome for patients with cardiovascular implantable electronic device (CIED) infections after extraction. Methods: Patients who underwent CIED extractions due to an infection at Karolinska University Hospital 2006–2015 were analyzed. Results: In total, 165 patients were reviewed, 104 (63%) with pocket infection and 61 (37%) with systemic infection. Of the patients with systemic infection, 34 and 25 patients fulfilled the criteria for definite and possible endocarditis, respectively. Complications after extraction occurred only in one patient. Reimplantation was made after a mean of 9.5 days and performed in 81% of those with pocket infection and 44.3% in systemic infection. Infection with the new device occurred in 4.6%. The mean length of hospital stay for patients with pocket infection was 5.7 days, compared to 38.6 days in systemic infection. One-year mortality was 7.7% and 22.2% in pocket infection and systemic infection, respectively. Patients with Staphylococcus aureus infection had a higher mortality. Conclusions: In this study, the majority of the patients had a pocket CIED infection, with a short hospital stay. Patients with a systemic infection, and S. aureus etiology, had a prolonged hospital stay and a higher mortality. Full article

Leptospirosis is a zoonosis caused by infection with pathogenic strains of the bacterium Leptospira. The disease can be complicated by pulmonary hemorrhages and acute respiratory distress syndrome, with the mortality rate increasing to 51–100%. We report the case of a 37-year-old man who was admitted to the emergency department with a 6-day history of fever, weakness, vomiting and diarrhea, followed by jaundice. On admission, he presented leukocytosis, thrombocytopenia and acute liver and kidney injuries. His clinical course was critical, as it was immediately complicated by sepsis and severe respiratory failure, requiring haemodialysis, mechanical ventilation and broad-spectrum antibiotic therapy. In the following days, a veno-venous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VV-ECMO) was started due to a dramatic deterioration in respiratory function; 20 h later, it was switched to veno-arterial ECMO because of refractory cardiogenic shock. Hantavirus or Leptospira infection etiology was suspected, so penicillin G and methylprednisolone were initiated as an empirical therapy and subsequently confirmed after a laboratory diagnosis of leptospirosis. Although the clinical course was further complicated by hemorrhagic pneumonia, a gradual, full recovery occurred, and the patient was discharged from the hospital. After excluding other sources of contact with Leptospira-infected material, an unsuspected abnormal eating behavior was identified as the most probable cause of the patient’s Leptospira infection. Full article

Intra-vesical instillation of bacillus Calmette–Guérin (BCG) is an important treatment modality of superficial bladder cancer. It is usually well tolerated, although some adverse reactions can occur. One possible yet rare complication is granulomatous hepatitis, that is thought to be caused either by BCG infection or a hypersensitivity reaction to the bacillus. We present a case of a 79-year-old apparently immunocompetent patient who developed granulomatous hepatitis a few months after BCG administration for bladder cancer immunotherapy. It is important to notice that acid-fast smears and cultures are often negative, and these should not exclude diagnosis nor delay treatment. Our case highlights the importance of clinical suspicion and prompt initiation of appropriate treatment. Full article

Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) has historically been considered the gold standard in fingerprinting bacterial strains in epidemiological studies and outbreak investigations; little is known regarding its use in individual clinical cases. The current study detailed two clinical cases in which PFGE helped to determine the source of their methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) bacteremia. Patient A was found to have MRSA bacteremia after trauma in her pelvic area. MRSA was also found in her groin but not in her nostril and rectum. PFGE was performed that showed variable bands of her MRSA isolates from blood and groin, suggestive of different strains of MRSA. Her MRSA bacteremia was determined to be unrelated to her pelvic trauma. Patient B was found to have MRSA bacteremia after colonoscopy. MRSA was also found in his nostril and rectum. PFGE was performed that showed variable bands of his MRSA isolates from blood and rectum but identical bands of MRSA isolates from his blood and nostril. His MRSA bacteremia was determined to be unrelated to his colonoscopy procedure. The current study demonstrates the use of PFGE to rule out the source of bacteremia in individual clinical cases. Full article

We report a case of myopericarditis associated to SARS-CoV-2 infection with necrotizing coronary vasculitis of intramural vessels, giving rise to biventricular apical microaneurysms and to electrical instability. Negativity of myocardial polymerase chain reaction for the most common cardiotropic viruses and for SARS-CoV-2 suggested an immune-mediated myocardial and pericardial inflammatory disease. High dose (1 mg/Kg daily) prednisone and anti-viral (Remdesivir, IDA Business, Carrigtohill, County Cork, T45 DP77, Ireland) therapy led to resolution of cardiac inflammation and ventricular arrhythmias. Morpho-molecular characterization of endomyocardial tissue may improve the outcome in subjects with SARS-CoV-2-associated myopericarditis and coronary vasculitis. Full article

Since the beginning of 2020, COVID-19 has been the biggest public health crisis in the world. To help develop appropriate public health measures and deploy corresponding resources, many governments have been actively tracking COVID-19 in real time within their jurisdictions. However, one of the key unresolved issues is whether COVID-19 was distributed differently among different age groups and between the two sexes in the ongoing pandemic. The objectives of this study were to use publicly available data to investigate the relative distributions of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths among age groups and between the sexes throughout 2020; and to analyze temporal changes in the relative frequencies of COVID-19 for each age group and each sex. Fifteen countries reported age group and/or sex data of patients with COVID-19. Our analyses revealed that different age groups and sexes were distributed differently in COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. However, there were differences among countries in both their age group and sex distributions. Though there was no consistent temporal change across all countries for any age group or either sex in COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, several countries showed statistically significant patterns. We discuss the potential mechanisms for these observations, the limitations of this study, and the implications of our results on the management of this ongoing pandemic. Full article

Chromobacterium violaceum is a facultative anaerobic, Gram-negative rod found in different ecosystems, especially tropical and subtropical areas. Human infections are rare, and just a few cases have been reported in literature. In this paper, we present the first non-lethal infection due to Chromobacterium violaceum, in an adult male with polycystic kidney disease in Colombia. Periareolar soft tissue infection was documented with isolation of Chromobacterium violaceum. Clinical manifestations, treatment, and outcome are shown. Full article

Coccidioidomycosis is an infectious disease of humans and other mammals that has seen a recent increase in occurrence in the southwestern United States, particularly in California. A rise in cases and risk to public health can serve as the impetus to apply newly developed methods that can quickly and accurately predict future caseloads. The recursive and Hawkes point process models with various triggering functions were fit to the data and their goodness of fit evaluated and compared. Although the point process models were largely similar in their fit to the data, the recursive point process model offered a slightly superior fit. We explored forecasting the spread of coccidioidomycosis in California from December 2002 to December 2017 using this recursive model, and we separated the training and testing portions of the data and achieved a root mean squared error of just 3.62 cases/week. Full article

To date, Yersinia pestis, Yersinia enterocolitica, and Yersinia pseudotuberculosis are the three Yersinia species generally agreed to be pathogenic in humans. However, there are a limited number of studies that suggest some of the “non-pathogenic” Yersinia species may also cause infections. For instance, Yersinia frederiksenii used to be known as an atypical Y. enterocolitica strain until rhamnose biochemical testing was found to distinguish between these two species in the 1980s. From our regional microbiology laboratory records of 18 hospitals in Eastern Ontario, Canada from 1 May 2018 to 1 May 2021, we identified two patients with Y. frederiksenii isolates in their stool cultures, along with their clinical presentation and antimicrobial management. Both patients presented with diarrhea, abdominal pain, and vomiting for 5 days before presentation to hospital. One patient received a 10-day course of sulfamethoxazole-trimethoprim; his Y. frederiksenii isolate was shown to be susceptible to amoxicillin-clavulanate, ceftriaxone, ciprofloxacin, and sulfamethoxazole-trimethoprim, but resistant to ampicillin. The other patient was sent home from the emergency department and did not require antimicrobials and additional medical attention. This case series illustrated that diarrheal disease could be associated with Y. frederiksenii; the need for antimicrobial treatment should be determined on a case-by-case basis. Full article

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic that has a significant rapid transmission is an international public health concern. Several dengue-endemic countries reported similar clinical and laboratory features between COVID-19 and dengue in the early incubation period, and thus discerning the infection is difficult. As a dengue-endemic country, Indonesia also poses the same challenge during the COVID-19 outbreak. This current study analyzed the IgG and IgM profiles from COVID-19 patients by using a serological SARS-CoV-2 and dengue rapid test. In addition, 38 sera from healthy individuals (pre-COVID-19 date) were analyzed using a dengue rapid test. Among 120 samples, 4 samples indicated dengue IgG positive. However, IgM, NS1, and RT-PCR analyses showed negative results. Interestingly, regarding seropositivity of NS1 and DENV IgG from healthy individuals (pre COVID-19 infection), two samples were positive DENV IgG, while one of them was positive NS1. This suggested that in the dengue-endemic area, many people have already experienced dengue and have immunity against dengue virus. There is also the possibility of antibody cross-reactivity between COVID-19 and dengue infection. This also emphasizes the high demand for a rapid method with high sensitivity and specificity that can distinguish between SARS-CoV-2 and dengue. Full article

Herpes is a widespread viral infection caused by the herpes simplex virus (HSV) that has no permanent cure to date. There are two subtypes, HSV-1 and HSV-2, that are known to cause a variety of symptoms, ranging from acute to chronic. HSV is highly contagious and can be transmitted via any type of physical contact. Additionally, viral shedding can also happen from asymptomatic infections. Thus, early and accurate detection of HSV is needed to prevent the transmission of this infection. Herpes can be diagnosed in two ways, by either detecting the presence of the virus in lesions or the antibodies in the blood. Different detection techniques are available based on both laboratory and point of care (POC) devices. Laboratory techniques include different biochemical assays, microscopy, and nucleic acid amplification. In contrast, POC techniques include microfluidics-based tests that enable on-spot testing. Here, we aim to review the different diagnostic techniques, both laboratory-based and POC, their limits of detection, sensitivity, and specificity, as well as their advantages and disadvantages. Full article

Background: The widely variable clinical manifestations of SARS-CoV2 disease (COVID-19) range from asymptomatic infections to multiple organ failure and death. Among the organs affected is the heart. This does not only affect people who already have previous cardiovascular problems, but also healthy people. This is a reason not to overlook any symptoms or to perform targeted examinations, even if apparently unrelated to the heart, for quick recognition and timely therapy. Aim of the study: This review recapitulates the current state of knowledge on the potential mechanisms and manifestation of myocarditis in patients with COVID-19 infection. Methods: A web-based search of published data was performed for all relevant studies on patients diagnosed with a COVID-19-induced acute myocarditis, and a total of 50 reports were included. The analysis of the studies evaluated highlights a male predominance, with the average age of patients being 55 years. The most common presenting symptoms included fever, shortness of breath, cough, and chest pain. Among ECG changes, non-specific ST-segment and T-wave amplitude alterations and ventricular tachycardia episodes were reported. Finally, we wanted to use a general evaluation without distinguishing between various countries, taking into consideration only the peer or reviewer, regardless of the declared value of the journals that have been published. Results and critical findings: The most common presenting symptoms included fever, shortness of breath, cough, and chest pain. Among ECG changes, non-specific ST-segment and T-wave amplitude alterations and ventricular tachycardia episodes were reported. In most patients, elevated levels of cardiac and inflammatory biomarkers were measured. Left ventricular dysfunction and hypokinesis were commonly exhibited symptoms. Cardiac Magnetic Resonance Imaging (CMRI) confirmed the diagnosis of myocarditis with features of cardiac edema and cardiac injury. Nine patients underwent histopathological examination. Treatment with corticosteroids and immunoglobulins was the most applied strategy following the administration of antivirals. Discussion: Despite the exponentially growing knowledge on the management of COVID-19 infection, current available data on SARS-CoV2-correlated myocarditis are still limited, and several difficulties may be encountered in the differential diagnosis of acute myocarditis in the context of COVID-19 disease. Conclusions: While diagnostic criteria and evaluation strategies for myocarditis are well described, no guidelines for the diagnosis and treatment of myocarditis in COVID-19 patients have yet been established. Therefore, further research is needed to advance the understanding of this disease process and define the most appropriate strategic approach in these patients. Full article

(1) Background: Studying social representations as lay theories allows for a better understanding of the common sense knowledge constructed around mosquito-borne diseases and the impact this may have on attitudes and behaviors. (2) Methods: A hierarchical evocation questionnaire was circulated through an Australian academic community and analyzed by prototypical analysis and correspondence factor analysis. (3) Results: Representational areas are regulated by participant age and whether or not they had contracted a mosquito-borne disease. (4) Conclusions: Collecting and understanding social representations has the potential to help social actors implement strategies that encourage people to access information and adopt behaviors in line with the scientific reality of the phenomenon, rather than limiting lay theories. Full article

The COVID-19 pandemic was impacting the health and economy around the world. All countries have taken measures to control the spread of the epidemic. Because it is not known when the epidemic will end in several countries, then the prediction of the COVID-19 pandemic is a very important challenge. This study has predicted the temporal evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in several countries using the logistic growth model. This model has analyzed several countries to describe the epidemic situation of these countries. The time interval of the actual data used as a comparison with the prediction results of this model was starting in the firstly confirmed COVID-19 cases to December 2020. This study examined an approach to the complexity spread of the COVID-19 pandemic using the logistic growth model formed from an ordinary differential equation. This model described the time-dependent population growth rate characterized by the three parameters of the analytical solution. The non-linear least-squares method was used to estimate the three parameters. These parameters described the rate growth constant of infected cases and the total number of confirmed cases in the final phase of the epidemic. This model is applied to the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in several countries. The prediction results show the spread dynamics of COVID-19 infected cases which are characterized by time-dependent dynamics. In this study, the proposed model provides estimates for the model parameters that are good for predicting the COVID-19 pandemic because they correspond to actual data for all analyzed countries. It is based on the coefficient of determination, R², and the R² value of more than 95% which is obtained from the non-linear curves for all analyzed countries. It shows that this model has the potential to contribute to better public health policy-making in the prevention of the COVID-19 pandemic. Full article

Nontuberculous mycobacterial (NTM) genitourinary (GU) infections are relatively rare, and there is frequently a delay in diagnosis. Mycobacterium avium-intracellulare complex (MAC) cases seem to be less frequent than other NTM as a cause of these infections. In addition, there are no set treatment guidelines for these organisms in the GU tract. Given the limitations of data this review summarizes a case presentation of this infection and the literature available on the topic. Many different antimicrobial regimens and durations have been used in the published literature. While the infrequency of these infections suggests that there will not be randomized controlled trials to determine optimal therapy, our case suggests that a brief course of amikacin may play a useful role in those who cannot tolerate other antibiotics. Full article