Macroeconomic Forecasting: New Insights into Global Financial Crisis

Dear Colleagues,

The failure of macroeconomic forecasters to signal the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) has downgraded the value of macroeconomic forecasting in the eyes of policymakers and the general public. Consensus forecasts of the state of the global macro-economy on the eve of the financial crisis were providing a picture of growth slow-down and not catastrophic down-turn. Since the GFC, macroeconomic modelers have been busy conducting pot-mortems of their models to see what they can learn from the experience. A few forecasters may have got the timing and severity of the global downturn correct, but most did not. Central banks that have used DSGE models for forecasting have been busily reintegrating monetary variables into their models. This Special Issue of Forecasting invites papers from macroeconomic forecasters to present their evidence of the pot-mortem analysis of the global financial crisis period. Forecasters who got the GFC correct are invited to present their case as to why they got it right and what lessons that provides to the macroeconomic forecasting community at large. Forecasters that got it wrong are invited to present their post-mortem analysis and the lessons for their individual forecasting bodies and the wider forecasting community. The lessons from the failure to forecast the GFC will have lessons for the way economists view the structure of the macro economy, and the Special Issue invites papers that provide insights into the structure of the economy. The Special Issue also invites papers that take an agnostic approach to macroeconomic forecasting by using reduced form or time series techniques that challenge structural model forecasts.

Prof. Dr. Kent Matthews
Guest Editor

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• Macroeconomic forecasting
• Global Financial Crisis
• Structural model forecasting
• DSGE macroeconomic models
• Time series and unstructured forecasting methods