Drought Risk Management in Reflect Changing of Meteorological Conditions

A special issue of Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433). This special issue belongs to the section "Meteorology".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (15 July 2021) | Viewed by 35515

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Department of Sanitary Engineering and Water Management, University of Agriculture in Krakow, Mickiewicza St. 24/28, 30-059 Krakow, Poland
Interests: surface hydrology; modelling of hydrological processes; urban water management; flood; drought; climate change
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Guest Editor
Department of Ecology, Climatology and Air Protection, University of Agriculture in Kraków, 31-120 Kraków, Poland
Interests: meteorology and climatology; agrometeorology; extreme and harmful to agriculture meteorological phenomena; climate variability; present-day climate change and the results of global warming

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Drought is one of the main extreme meteorological and hydrological phenomena that influence many key human activities and ecosystems. Around the world, different direct changes of meteorological and climatological conditions are observed, such as air temperature, moisture, precipitation, and evapotranspiration that significant influence drought. Land cover/land use can also be an indirect factor that can influence evapotranspiration and, thus, water balance in catchment. It can be influence the run in drought process. Additionally, climate change is one of the more visible factors that can increase the severity and frequency of drought. Drought is linked with changes to the hydrological regime and a decrease in water resources. Its results are observed in the various water-demand-related issues for people, agriculture (a very important problem in regions with large irrigation systems), and industry, and it can also be a problem for water ecosystems. To reflect the above information, reasonable drought risk management that can moderate problems with water demands in different sectors of human activities is critical. 

Thus, in our opinion, an expansion of knowledge and challenges in drought maganement is needed to prevent water scarcity. Therefore, the main objective of this Special Issue is to contribute to our understanding of drought processes and the influence of the interactions between different factors and to provide science-based knowledge, new ideas/approaches and solutions in drought risk management. We encourage authors to share their opinions, knowledge, and achievements regarding meteorological condition trends and the influence of drought processes and interactions on human activities, and new methods of measurements of meteorologic factors, such as the use of satellite images to assess evaporation, precipitation, soil moisture, etc. and prognosis of drought and water scarcity. Additionally, examples of best practices in drought risk management will be very important to present in this Special Issue. In particular, the following topics are of great interest:

  • Indicators of drought and their uncertainty;
  • Modern techniques of measures of meteorological factors;
  • Trends of meteorological factors and their interactions with human activities and water scarcity and water demands;
  • Influence of drought on water demands of households, industrial, agriculture, and ecosystems;
  • Drought risk management to prevent water scarcity;
  • Climate change and influence on drought.

Dr. Andrzej Walega
Dr. Agnieszka Ziernicka-Wojtaszek
Guest Editors

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Keywords

  • Drought risk management
  • Meteorological factors and their influence on drought
  • Water scarcity
  • Sociohydrology
  • Prognosis of drought
  • Indicators of drought
  • Climate change

Published Papers (12 papers)

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Editorial

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2 pages, 172 KiB  
Editorial
Preface to Drought Risk Management to Reflect Changing Meteorological Conditions
by Andrzej Wałęga and Agnieszka Ziernicka-Wojtaszek
Atmosphere 2021, 12(12), 1660; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12121660 - 10 Dec 2021
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1529
Abstract
Drought is one of the main extreme meteorological and hydrological phenomena which influence both the functioning of ecosystems and many important sectors of human economic activity [...] Full article

Research

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20 pages, 5172 KiB  
Article
Summer Drought in 2019 on Polish Territory—A Case Study
by Agnieszka Ziernicka-Wojtaszek
Atmosphere 2021, 12(11), 1475; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12111475 - 8 Nov 2021
Cited by 17 | Viewed by 1926
Abstract
The summer 2019 drought in Poland, i.e., the warmest year in observation history, was characterized. Meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, and hydrogeological aspects were taken into account. Meteorological drought in the light of regionally differentiated days of low precipitation frequency lasted the longest, i.e., over [...] Read more.
The summer 2019 drought in Poland, i.e., the warmest year in observation history, was characterized. Meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, and hydrogeological aspects were taken into account. Meteorological drought in the light of regionally differentiated days of low precipitation frequency lasted the longest, i.e., over 3 months in central-western Poland. In the period between June–August 2019, in the belt of South Baltic Lakes and Central Polish Lowlands, the lowest precipitation sums of 30–60% of the norm were recorded. The values of the climatic water balance (CWB) calculated by the Institute of Soil Science and Plant Cultivation (IUNG) method for individual months of June–August for the Polish area were −129, −64, and −53 mm, respectively. The most threatened were fruit bushes, spring cereals, maize for grain and silage, and leguminous plants. In central-western and south-western Poland, the drought accelerated the date of the lowest flows by two months on average from the turn of September and October to the turn of July and August. In the lowland belt, where the drought was the most intensive, the average monthly groundwater level, both of free and tight groundwater table, was lower than the monthly averages for the whole hydrological year. Full article
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14 pages, 7434 KiB  
Article
Monitoring of Expansive Clays over Drought-Rewetting Cycles Using Satellite Remote Sensing
by André Burnol, Michael Foumelis, Sébastien Gourdier, Jacques Deparis and Daniel Raucoules
Atmosphere 2021, 12(10), 1262; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12101262 - 28 Sep 2021
Cited by 7 | Viewed by 2093
Abstract
New capabilities for measuring and monitoring are needed to prevent the shrink-swell risk caused by drought-rewetting cycles. A clayey soil in the Loire Valley at Chaingy (France) has been instrumented with two extensometers and several soil moisture sensors. Here we show by direct [...] Read more.
New capabilities for measuring and monitoring are needed to prevent the shrink-swell risk caused by drought-rewetting cycles. A clayey soil in the Loire Valley at Chaingy (France) has been instrumented with two extensometers and several soil moisture sensors. Here we show by direct comparison between remote and in situ data that the vertical ground displacements due to clay expansion are well-captured by the Multi-Temporal Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (MT-InSAR) technique. In addition to the one-year period, two sub-annual periods that reflect both average ground shrinking and swelling timeframes are unraveled by a wavelet-based analysis. Moreover, the relative phase difference between the vertical displacement and surface soil moisture show local variations that are interpreted in terms of depth and thickness of the clay layer, as visualized by an electrical resistivity tomography. With regard to future works, a similar treatment relying fully on remote sensing observations may be scaled up to map larger areas in order to better assess the shrink-swell risk. Full article
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22 pages, 4930 KiB  
Article
Drought Trends in the Polish Carpathian Mts. in the Years 1991–2020
by Anita Bokwa, Mariusz Klimek, Paweł Krzaklewski and Wojciech Kukułka
Atmosphere 2021, 12(10), 1259; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12101259 - 27 Sep 2021
Cited by 17 | Viewed by 1912
Abstract
Mountains are highly sensitive to the effects of climate change, including extreme short- and long-term weather phenomena. Therefore, in spite of relatively high annual precipitation totals, mountains might become endangered by droughts. The paper presents drought trends in the Polish Carpathians located in [...] Read more.
Mountains are highly sensitive to the effects of climate change, including extreme short- and long-term weather phenomena. Therefore, in spite of relatively high annual precipitation totals, mountains might become endangered by droughts. The paper presents drought trends in the Polish Carpathians located in Central Europe. Data from the period 1991–2020 from 12 meteorological stations located in various vertical climate zones of the mountains were used to define drought conditions using the following indices: Standardized Precipitation (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration (SPEI), Relative Precipitation (RPI) and Sielianinov. Additionally, four forest drought indices were used in order to estimate the impact of drought on beech as a typical Carpathian tree species, i.e., the Ellenberg (EQ), Forestry Aridity (FAI), Mayr Tetratherm (MT) and De Martonne Aridity (AI) indices. Statistically significant but weak trends were obtained for the 6-month SPI for four stations (indicating an increase in seasonal to mid-term precipitation), for the 1-month SPEI for three stations, for the 3-month SPEI for four stations, and for MT for all stations (indicating an increase in drought intensity). The analysis of dry month frequency according to particular indices shows that at most of the stations during the last decade of the study period, the frequency of dry months was much higher than in previous decades, especially in the cold half-year. Two zones of the Polish Carpathians are the most prone to drought occurrence: the peak zone due to the shift in climatic vertical zones triggered by the air temperature increase, and the forelands and foothills, together with basins located about 200–400 m a.s.l., where the mean annual air temperature is the highest in all the vertical profile, the annual sums of precipitation are very diversified, and the conditions for beech are already unfavorable. Full article
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23 pages, 3871 KiB  
Article
Forecasting of Drought: A Case Study of Water-Stressed Region of Pakistan
by Prem Kumar, Syed Feroz Shah, Mohammad Aslam Uqaili, Laveet Kumar and Raja Fawad Zafar
Atmosphere 2021, 12(10), 1248; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12101248 - 26 Sep 2021
Cited by 9 | Viewed by 2839
Abstract
Demand for water resources has increased dramatically due to the global increase in consumption of water, which has resulted in water depletion. Additionally, global climate change has further resulted as an impediment to human survival. Moreover, Pakistan is among the countries that have [...] Read more.
Demand for water resources has increased dramatically due to the global increase in consumption of water, which has resulted in water depletion. Additionally, global climate change has further resulted as an impediment to human survival. Moreover, Pakistan is among the countries that have already crossed the water scarcity line, experiencing drought in the water-stressed Thar desert. Drought mitigation actions can be effectively achieved by forecasting techniques. This research describes the application of a linear stochastic model, i.e., Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), to predict the drought pattern. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is calculated to develop ARIMA models to forecast drought in a hyper-arid environment. In this study, drought forecast is demonstrated by results achieved from ARIMA models for various time periods. Result shows that the values of p, d, and q (non-seasonal model parameter) and P, D, and Q (seasonal model parameter) for the same SPEI period in the proposed models are analogous where “p” is the order of autoregressive lags, q is the order of moving average lags and d is the order of integration. Additionally, these parameters show the strong likeness for Moving Average (M.A) and Autoregressive (A.R) parameter values. From the various developed models for the Thar region, it has been concluded that the model (0,1,0)(1,0,2) is the best ARIMA model at 24 SPEI and could be considered as a generalized model. In the (0,1,0) model, the A.R term is 0, the difference/order of integration is 1 and the moving average is 0, and in the model (1,0,2) whose A.R has the 1st lag, the difference/order of integration is 0 and the moving average has 2 lags. Larger values for R2 greater than 0.9 and smaller values of Mean Error (ME), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Percentile Error (MPE), Mean Absolute Percentile Error (MAPE), and Mean Absolute Square Error (MASE) provide the acceptance of the generalized model. Consequently, this research suggests that drought forecasting can be effectively fulfilled by using ARIMA models, which can be assist policy planners of water resources to place safeguards keeping in view the future severity of the drought. Full article
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56 pages, 11213 KiB  
Article
The Role of Aquatic Refuge Habitats for Fish, and Threats in the Context of Climate Change and Human Impact, during Seasonal Hydrological Drought in the Saxon Villages Area (Transylvania, Romania)
by Doru Bănăduc, Alexandru Sas, Kevin Cianfaglione, Sophia Barinova and Angela Curtean-Bănăduc
Atmosphere 2021, 12(9), 1209; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12091209 - 16 Sep 2021
Cited by 26 | Viewed by 4164
Abstract
In spite of the obvious climate changes effects on the Carpathian Basin hydrographic nets fish fauna, studies on their potential refuge habitats in drought periods are scarce. Multiannual (2016–2021) research of fish in some streams located in the Saxon Villages area during hydrological [...] Read more.
In spite of the obvious climate changes effects on the Carpathian Basin hydrographic nets fish fauna, studies on their potential refuge habitats in drought periods are scarce. Multiannual (2016–2021) research of fish in some streams located in the Saxon Villages area during hydrological drought periods identified, mapped, and revealed the refuge aquatic habitats presence, management needs, and importance for fish diversity and abundance for small rivers. The impact of increasing global temperature and other human activities induced hydrologic net and habitats alteration, decreased the refuge habitats needed by freshwater fish, diminished the fish abundance, and influenced the spatial and temporal variation in fish assemblage structure in the studied area. The sites more than one meter in depth in the studied lotic system were inventoried and all 500 m of these lotic systems were also checked to see what species and how many individuals were present, and if there is was difference in their abundance between refuge and non-refuge 500 m sectors. The scarce number of these refuges due to relatively high soil erosion and clogging in those basins and the cumulative effects of other human types of impact induced a high degree of pressure on the fish fauna. Overall, it reduced the role of these lotic systems as a refuge and for reproduction for the fish of downstream Târnava Mare River, into which all of them flow. Management elements were proposed to maintain and improve these refuges’ ecological support capacity. Full article
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20 pages, 6854 KiB  
Article
The Analysis of Long-Term Trends in the Meteorological and Hydrological Drought Occurrences Using Non-Parametric Methods—Case Study of the Catchment of the Upper Noteć River (Central Poland)
by Katarzyna Kubiak-Wójcicka, Agnieszka Pilarska and Dariusz Kamiński
Atmosphere 2021, 12(9), 1098; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12091098 - 25 Aug 2021
Cited by 17 | Viewed by 2644
Abstract
The study aims to identify long-term trends in the changes of drought occurrences using the Mann-Kendall (MK) test and the Theil-Sen estimator. Trend research was carried out on the example of the catchment area of the Upper Noteć River, which covers an agricultural [...] Read more.
The study aims to identify long-term trends in the changes of drought occurrences using the Mann-Kendall (MK) test and the Theil-Sen estimator. Trend research was carried out on the example of the catchment area of the Upper Noteć River, which covers an agricultural area of Poland with some of the lowest water reserves. The meteorological droughts were identified based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), while the hydrological droughts were determined on the basis of the Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) in various time scales (1, 3, 6, 9 and 12 months) in the period of 1981–2016. The relationship between SPI and SRI was determined on the basis of the Pearson correlation analysis. The results showed that statistically significant trends (at the significance level of 0.05) were identified at 3 out of 8 meteorological stations (downward trend at Kłodawa station and upward trend for drought at Sompolno and Kołuda Wielka stations). Statistically significant hydrological droughts showed an increase in occurrences at the Łysek station, while a downward trend was noted at the Noć Kalina station. No trend was found at the Pakość station. The analysis of the correlation between meteorological and hydrological droughts showed a strong relationship in dry years. The maximum correlation coefficient was identified in longer accumulation periods i.e., 6 and 9 months. The example of the catchment of the Upper Noteć River points to the necessity of using several indicators in order to assess the actual condition of the water reserves. Full article
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21 pages, 2614 KiB  
Article
A Comparison of the Characteristics of Drought during the Late 20th and Early 21st Centuries over Eastern Europe, Western Russia and Central North America
by Anthony R. Lupo, Nina K. Kononova, Inna G. Semenova and Maria G. Lebedeva
Atmosphere 2021, 12(8), 1033; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12081033 - 12 Aug 2021
Cited by 7 | Viewed by 2419
Abstract
The character of the atmospheric general circulation during summer-season droughts over Eastern Europe/Western Russia and North America during the late twentieth and early twenty first century is examined here. A criterion to examine atmospheric drought events that encompassed the summer season (an important [...] Read more.
The character of the atmospheric general circulation during summer-season droughts over Eastern Europe/Western Russia and North America during the late twentieth and early twenty first century is examined here. A criterion to examine atmospheric drought events that encompassed the summer season (an important part of the growing season) was used to determine which years were driest, using precipitation, evaporation, and areal coverage. The relationship between drought and the character of the atmosphere, using the Dzerzeevsky weather and climatic classification scheme, atmospheric blocking, teleconnections, and information entropy, was used to study the atmospheric dynamics. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) re-analyses dataset archived at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, CO, USA, is used to examine the synoptic character and calculate the dynamic quantities for these dry events. The results demonstrate that extreme droughts over North America are associated with a long warm and dry period of weather and the development of a moderate ridge over the Central USA driven by surface processes. These were more common in the late 20th century. Extreme droughts over Eastern Europe and Western Russia are driven by the occurrence of prolonged blocking episodes, as well as surface processes, and have become more common during the 21st century. Full article
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16 pages, 8454 KiB  
Article
Assessing the Contrasting Effects of the Exceptional 2015 Drought on the Carbon Dynamics in Two Norway Spruce Forest Ecosystems
by Caleb Mensah, Ladislav Šigut, Milan Fischer, Lenka Foltýnová, Georg Jocher, Manuel Acosta, Natalia Kowalska, Lukáš Kokrda, Marian Pavelka, John David Marshall, Emmanuel K. Nyantakyi and Michal V. Marek
Atmosphere 2021, 12(8), 988; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12080988 - 31 Jul 2021
Cited by 5 | Viewed by 2877
Abstract
The occurrence of extreme drought poses a severe threat to forest ecosystems and reduces their capability to sequester carbon dioxide. This study analysed the impacts of a central European summer drought in 2015 on gross primary productivity (GPP) at two Norway spruce forest [...] Read more.
The occurrence of extreme drought poses a severe threat to forest ecosystems and reduces their capability to sequester carbon dioxide. This study analysed the impacts of a central European summer drought in 2015 on gross primary productivity (GPP) at two Norway spruce forest sites representing two contrasting climatic conditions—cold and humid climate at Bílý Kříž (CZ-BK1) vs. moderately warm and dry climate at Rájec (CZ-RAJ). The comparative analyses of GPP was based on a three-year eddy covariance dataset, where 2014 and 2016 represented years with normal conditions, while 2015 was characterized by dry conditions. A significant decline in the forest GPP was found during the dry year of 2015, reaching 14% and 6% at CZ-BK1 and CZ-RAJ, respectively. The reduction in GPP coincided with high ecosystem respiration (Reco) during the dry year period, especially during July and August, when several heat waves hit the region. Additional analyses of GPP decline during the dry year period suggested that a vapour pressure deficit played a more important role than the soil volumetric water content at both investigated sites, highlighting the often neglected importance of considering the species hydraulic strategy (isohydric vs. anisohydric) in drought impact assessments. The study indicates the high vulnerability of the Norway spruce forest to drought stress, especially at sites with precipitation equal or smaller than the atmospheric evaporative demand. Since central Europe is currently experiencing large-scale dieback of Norway spruce forests in lowlands and uplands (such as for CZ-RAJ conditions), the findings of this study may help to quantitatively assess the fate of these widespread cultures under future climate projections, and may help to delimitate the areas of their sustainable production. Full article
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14 pages, 4588 KiB  
Article
Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Dry and Wet Spells in the Wadi Cheliff Basin, Algeria
by Mohammed Achite, Nir Y. Krakauer, Andrzej Wałęga and Tommaso Caloiero
Atmosphere 2021, 12(6), 798; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12060798 - 21 Jun 2021
Cited by 15 | Viewed by 2598
Abstract
The Mediterranean Basin, located in a transition zone between the temperate and rainy climate of central Europe and the arid climate of North Africa, is considered a major hotspot of climate change, subject to water scarcity and drought. In this work, dry and [...] Read more.
The Mediterranean Basin, located in a transition zone between the temperate and rainy climate of central Europe and the arid climate of North Africa, is considered a major hotspot of climate change, subject to water scarcity and drought. In this work, dry and wet spells have been analyzed in the Wadi Cheliff basin (Algeria) by means of annual precipitation observed at 150 rain gauges in the period 1970–2018. In particular, the characteristics of dry and wet spells (frequency, duration, severity, and intensity) have been evaluated by means of the run theory applied to the 12-month standardized precipitation index (SPI) values. Moreover, in order to detect possible tendencies in the SPI values, a trend analysis has been performed by means of two non-parametric tests, the Theil–Sen and Mann–Kendall test. The results indicated similar values of frequency, severity, duration, and intensity between the dry and the wet spells, although wet events showed higher values in the extreme. Moreover, the results of the trend analysis evidenced a different behavior between the northern side of the basin, characterized by a negative trend in the 12-month SPI values, and the southern side, in which positive trends were detected. Full article
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21 pages, 5713 KiB  
Article
The Superiority of Data-Driven Techniques for Estimation of Daily Pan Evaporation
by Manish Kumar, Anuradha Kumari, Deepak Kumar, Nadhir Al-Ansari, Rawshan Ali, Raushan Kumar, Ambrish Kumar, Ahmed Elbeltagi and Alban Kuriqi
Atmosphere 2021, 12(6), 701; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12060701 - 30 May 2021
Cited by 26 | Viewed by 3269
Abstract
In the present study, estimating pan evaporation (Epan) was evaluated based on different input parameters: maximum and minimum temperatures, relative humidity, wind speed, and bright sunshine hours. The techniques used for estimating Epan were the artificial neural network (ANN), wavelet-based [...] Read more.
In the present study, estimating pan evaporation (Epan) was evaluated based on different input parameters: maximum and minimum temperatures, relative humidity, wind speed, and bright sunshine hours. The techniques used for estimating Epan were the artificial neural network (ANN), wavelet-based ANN (WANN), radial function-based support vector machine (SVM-RF), linear function-based SVM (SVM-LF), and multi-linear regression (MLR) models. The proposed models were trained and tested in three different scenarios (Scenario 1, Scenario 2, and Scenario 3) utilizing different percentages of data points. Scenario 1 includes 60%: 40%, Scenario 2 includes 70%: 30%, and Scenario 3 includes 80%: 20% accounting for the training and testing dataset, respectively. The various statistical tools such as Pearson’s correlation coefficient (PCC), root mean square error (RMSE), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and Willmott Index (WI) were used to evaluate the performance of the models. The graphical representation, such as a line diagram, scatter plot, and the Taylor diagram, were also used to evaluate the proposed model’s performance. The model results showed that the SVM-RF model’s performance is superior to other proposed models in all three scenarios. The most accurate values of PCC, RMSE, NSE, and WI were found to be 0.607, 1.349, 0.183, and 0.749, respectively, for the SVM-RF model during Scenario 1 (60%: 40% training: testing) among all scenarios. This showed that with an increase in the sample set for training, the testing data would show a less accurate modeled result. Thus, the evolved models produce comparatively better outcomes and foster decision-making for water managers and planners. Full article
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22 pages, 3737 KiB  
Article
Green Roof Enhancement on Buildings of the University of Applied Sciences in Neubrandenburg (Germany) in Times of Climate Change
by Manfred Köhler and Daniel Kaiser
Atmosphere 2021, 12(3), 382; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12030382 - 14 Mar 2021
Cited by 15 | Viewed by 4610
Abstract
The reduction in evaporative surfaces in cities is one driver for longer and hotter summers. Greening building surfaces can help to mitigate the loss of vegetated cover. Typical extensive green roof structures, such as sedum-based solutions, survive in dry periods, but how can [...] Read more.
The reduction in evaporative surfaces in cities is one driver for longer and hotter summers. Greening building surfaces can help to mitigate the loss of vegetated cover. Typical extensive green roof structures, such as sedum-based solutions, survive in dry periods, but how can green roofs be made to be more effective for the longer hot and dry periods to come? The research findings are based on continuous vegetation analytics of typical extensive green roofs over the past 20 years. -Survival of longer dry periods by fully adapted plants species with a focus on the fittest and best adapted species. -Additional technical and treatment solutions to support greater water storage in the media in dry periods and to support greater plant biomass/high biodiversity on the roofs by optimizing growing media with fertilizer to achieve higher evapotranspiration (short: ET) values. The main findings of this research: -The climate benefits of green roofs are associated with the quantity of phytomass. Selecting the right growing media is critical. -Typical extensive green roof substrates have poor nutrition levels. Fertilizer can significantly boost the ecological effects on CO2 fixation. -If the goal of the green roof is a highly biodiverse green roof, micro-structures are the right solution. Full article
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