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Rainfall Patterns and Flood and Drought Risk: Assessing Vulnerabilities, Building Resilience and Enhancing Sustainability

A special issue of Sustainability (ISSN 2071-1050). This special issue belongs to the section "Sustainable Water Management".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 30 June 2026 | Viewed by 2364

Special Issue Editor


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Guest Editor
Department of Sanitary Engineering and Water Management, Faculty of Environmental Engineering and Land Surveying, University of Agriculture in Krakow, 31-120 Kraków, Poland
Interests: surface hydrology; flood; drought; modelling of hydrological processes; climate change; urban hydrology
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Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Rainfall patterns play a crucial role in determining flood and drought risk, significantly influencing both short-term weather events and long-term climate conditions. Changes in the intensity, frequency, and distribution of rainfall can trigger floods in some regions while exacerbating droughts in others. Floods, often caused by heavy or prolonged rainfall, can devastate ecosystems, infrastructure, and livelihoods. Conversely, a precipitation deficit can increase the risk of meteorological droughts, ultimately causing problems with water resources, agriculture, and energy production.

Assessing vulnerabilities related to rainfall variability requires a multi-dimensional approach that integrates climate modeling, hydrological studies, and socio-economic analyses. Current research gaps involve the accurate prediction of rainfall events, the estimation of heavy rainfall parameters (e.g., time of concentration and statistical distributions), and addressing uncertainties in measurements and calculations, as well as the lack of adequate data. Understanding the interaction between natural and anthropogenic factors and improving long-term climate forecasts are also significant challenges. Many regions still lack sufficient data and tools for effective flood and drought risk management.

Building resilience to flood and drought phenomena requires improving early warning systems, adopting sustainable water management practices, and implementing adaptive infrastructure solutions. Rainfall data also have a decisive impact on the results of hydrodynamic modeling for urban drainage systems and flood risk assessments.

Expanding knowledge and addressing challenges in rainfall calculations are essential to preventing floods and droughts. Therefore, the primary objective of this Special Issue is to contribute to discussions on the need to better understand rainfall processes and apply modern techniques to calculate design rainfall, as well as indicators of drought, including the formation stages of these phenomena. This includes introducing new ideas and solutions in drought and flood risk management. We encourage authors to share their insights, knowledge, and achievements in rainfall analysis, with a focus on its influence on flood and drought processes. This may include new methods for measuring meteorological factors, such as using satellite imagery or reanalyzed data to assess precipitation, soil moisture, and more, as well as forecasting floods and droughts.

Particular topics of interest include:

  • Current and future precipitation models; 
  • Temporal and spatial rainfall distribution; 
  • Impact of climate change on rainfall characteristics; 
  • Statistical analysis of precipitation data; 
  • Rainfall scenarios for modelling of floods and droughts; 
  • Modern techniques of measures of precipitations; 
  • Useful new data of precipitation in floods and drought analyses
  • Flood and drought risk management in the aspect of climate change; 
  • Past and future climate change impacts on precipitation extremes. 

Dr. Andrzej Walega
Guest Editor

Manuscript Submission Information

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Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Sustainability is an international peer-reviewed open access semimonthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2400 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • rainfall models
  • IDF/DDF curves
  • precipitation data
  • design storms
  • drought indicators
  • flood and drought vulnerability

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Published Papers (2 papers)

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Research

26 pages, 7994 KB  
Article
Spatiotemporal Analysis of Drought and Soil Moisture Dynamics for Sustainable Water and Agricultural Management in the Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP) Region, Türkiye
by Zeyneb Kiliç
Sustainability 2026, 18(2), 579; https://doi.org/10.3390/su18020579 - 6 Jan 2026
Viewed by 215
Abstract
In semi-arid areas like Southeastern Anatolia, where agricultural productivity and water supply are extremely climate-sensitive, drought is a significant environmental and socioeconomic problem. Comprehensive assessment of drought and soil moisture dynamics is fundamental to sustainable agriculture and water security in semi-arid regions. This [...] Read more.
In semi-arid areas like Southeastern Anatolia, where agricultural productivity and water supply are extremely climate-sensitive, drought is a significant environmental and socioeconomic problem. Comprehensive assessment of drought and soil moisture dynamics is fundamental to sustainable agriculture and water security in semi-arid regions. This study analyzes drought patterns across seven provinces in the Southeastern Anatolia (GAP) region of Türkiye (Adıyaman, Diyarbakır, Gaziantep, Kilis, Mardin, Siirt, and Şanlıurfa) from 1963 to 2022, employing four drought indices (SPI, SPEI, CZI, and RDI) at multiple timescales (1-, 3-, and 12-month) to support evidence-based strategies for sustainable water and agricultural resource management. A more thorough evaluation is made possible by this multi-index and multi-scale method, which is rarely used concurrently at the provincial level. Additionally, the drought characterization was validated and enhanced through the analysis of ERA5-Land soil moisture data (1950–2022). According to the findings, the provinces with the lowest median index values and the highest frequency of extreme drought episodes are Diyarbakır and Şanlıurfa. The SPEI-12 (THW) median values showed a neutral long-term drought–wetness balance with seasonal changes, ranging from −0.0714 (Adıyaman) to 0.188 (Şanlıurfa). Particularly after 2009, soil moisture levels decreased to as low as 2–3 mm during the summer, indicating heightened evapotranspiration stress. RDI-12’s reliability in long-term drought evaluation was confirmed by its strongest correlation with other indices (r = 0.87–0.97). According to spatial research, the frequency of moderate droughts in the southwest was as high as 39%, whilst the eastern provinces experienced severe and intense droughts as high as 8%. However, with frequency above 53%, wet occurrences were more common in the east, particularly in Siirt. By clarifying long-term drought and soil moisture patterns, this study provides essential insights for sustainable irrigation planning and agricultural water allocation in the GAP region. Full article
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20 pages, 14340 KB  
Article
Seasonal and Regional Patterns of Streamflow Droughts in Poland: A 50-Year Perspective
by Katarzyna Baran-Gurgul and Andrzej Wałęga
Sustainability 2025, 17(16), 7531; https://doi.org/10.3390/su17167531 - 20 Aug 2025
Cited by 3 | Viewed by 1463
Abstract
Hydrological drought in Central Europe is becoming an increasingly serious threat to agriculture, industry, and people due to climate change and the rising frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. The main aim of the paper was to assess the spatial variability of [...] Read more.
Hydrological drought in Central Europe is becoming an increasingly serious threat to agriculture, industry, and people due to climate change and the rising frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. The main aim of the paper was to assess the spatial variability of streamflow drought in Poland. The spatial analysis was conducted using daily streamflow series from 340 gauging stations for the period 1973–2022. Hydrological drought was defined as a period with a streamflow lower than Q90%. The results show that, on average, hydrological droughts occur 52 times per year at a given gauging station. Drought duration and volume depend on the gauge elevation. At higher-altitude stations, shorter and smaller-volume droughts are most commonly observed. The longest droughts are recorded in Northern Poland, particularly in the Lakeland regions, which is a serious problem mainly for the agriculture sector. Hydrological droughts in Poland most frequently begin in summer and end in late summer or early autumn. Analyses showed that hydrological drought has a strong spatial distribution, and it is possible to identify five main regions with homogeneous drought duration and volume. Trend analysis of the annual number of low-flow days indicates no statistically significant trend at 46% of stations, while 54% exhibit statistically significant increases, with marked regional variability. The highest number of stations with statistically significant decreasing trends occurs in the Southern and Eastern Baltic Lake District and in the Central Poland Lowlands and Highlands with Polesie. The study highlights the necessity of enhancing water retention, particularly in the central, lowland regions of Poland. Full article
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