Atmosphere

This study investigates the influence of solar flare events on the time–frequency characteristics of very low frequency (VLF) signals based on observations from the China Seismo–Electromagnetic Satellite (CSES) satellite. By analyzing the VLF electromagnetic wave HDF5 data downloaded on the day of the solar flare, the data were converted into a sequence of spectrograms, and linear structures within them were identified using image processing techniques and the K-means clustering algorithm. In this work, we detect more than twenty candidate transient near-vertical stripe elements (image-domain linear features) in the VLF spectrograms on solar-flare event days and use them as an operational texture fingerprint for large-scale screening. This finding suggests that solar flare events may trigger pulse sequence phenomena in VLF signals, providing new observational evidence for understanding the impact of solar activity on the ionosphere and offering a new perspective for investigating solar-flare effects using VLF signals.

Recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer following the ban on ozone-depleting substances represents one of the most successful examples of international environmental policy. However, the long-term fate of ozone under continuing climate change remains uncertain. We present the first multi-century projections of ozone evolution to 2200 using emission-driven CMIP7 scenarios in the SOCOL-MPIOM chemistry-climate model. Our results show that despite the elimination of halogenated compounds, total column ozone exhibits non-monotonic evolution, with an initial increase of 8–12% by 2080–2100, followed by a decline to 2200, remaining 4.5–7% above the 2020 baseline. Stratospheric ozone at 50 hPa shows a monotonic decline of 2–11% by 2200 across all scenarios, with no recovery despite ongoing Montreal Protocol implementation. Critically, even in the high-overshoot scenario where CO₂ concentrations decline from 830 to 350 ppm between 2100 and 2200, stratospheric ozone continues to decrease. Intensification of the Brewer-Dobson circulation in warmer climates reduces ozone residence time in the tropical stratosphere, decreasing photochemical production efficiency. This dynamic effect outweighs the reduction in ozone-depleting substances, leading to persistent stratospheric ozone depletion despite total column ozone enhancements in polar regions. Spatial analysis reveals pronounced regional differentiation: Antarctic regions show sustained total column enhancement of +18–26% by 2190–2200, while tropical regions decline to levels below baseline (−4 to −5%). Our results reveal fundamental asymmetry between climate forcing and ozone response, with characteristic adjustment timescales of 100–200 years, and have critical implications for long-term atmospheric protection policy.

Precipitation in high mountain areas is of critical importance as these regions are major sources of freshwater, supporting river basins, ecosystems, and downstream communities. Changes in precipitation regimes in these regions can have cascading impacts on water availability, agriculture, hydropower, and biodiversity. The present study aims to give new information about precipitation variability in high mountain regions of Bulgaria (Musala, Botev Peak, and Cherni Vrah) and to assess the role of large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns for the occurrence of extreme precipitation months. The study period is 1937–2024, and the classification of extreme precipitation months is based on the 10th and 90th percentiles of precipitation distribution. The temporal distribution of extreme precipitation months was analyzed by comparison of two periods (1937–1980 and 1981–2024). The impact of atmospheric circulation was evaluated by correlation between the number of extreme precipitation months and indices for the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO). Results show a statistically significant decrease in winter and spring precipitation at Musala and Cherni Vrah, and a persistent drying tendency at Cherni Vrah across all seasons. The frequency of extremely wet months in winter and autumn has sharply declined since 1981, whereas extremely dry months have become more common, particularly during the cold season. Precipitation erosivity also exhibits station-specific responses, with Musala and Cherni Vrah showing reduced monthly concentration, while Botev Peak retains pronounced warm-season erosive rainfall. Circulation analysis indicates that positive NAOI phases favor dry extremes, while positive WeMOI phases enhance wet extremes. These findings reveal a shift toward drier and more seasonally uneven conditions in Bulgaria’s alpine zone, increasing hydrological risks related to drought, water scarcity, and soil erosion. The identified shifts in precipitation seasonality and intensity offer essential guidance for forecasting hydrological risks and mitigating soil erosion in vulnerable mountain ecosystems. The study underscores the need for adaptive water-resource strategies and enhanced monitoring in high-mountain areas.