Climate and Energy Security Nexus in the Pacific: An Integrative Thematic Review

Abstract

Despite accounting for less than 0.03% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions, the Pacific Small Island Developing States (PSIDS) face existential threats to their environment, livelihoods, and regional stability due to their heavy dependence on imported fossil fuels and disproportionate climate vulnerability. To address this “Justice Paradox,” this study utilises a Nexus Mapping framework to qualitatively synthesise the non-linear causal pathways between climate stressors and energy system vulnerabilities. Through an integrative thematic synthesis of literature and regional policy documents, the research identifies systemic bottlenecks, including the “fiscal trap” of post-disaster reconstruction, the “demand-utility paradox” of rising temperatures, and the logistical premiums of archipelagic energy distribution. The analysis suggests that energy decarbonisation represents a strategic opportunity to strengthen climate security across four dimensions: human, national, international, and ecological. To facilitate a secure transition, the study proposes a comprehensive “policy mix” of regulatory standards (sticks), economic de-risking through mechanisms such as Sovereign Green Bonds (carrots), and the institutionalisation of local technical sovereignty (sermons). This research offers an interpretive analytical framework for Pacific policymakers, arguing that decentralised, modular renewables may serve as a strategic shield against climatic instability and support the preservation of regional statehood.

1. Introduction

Human-driven greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have raised global temperatures by 1.1 °C above 1850–1900 levels, and current policies create a gap that makes exceeding the 1.5 °C threshold likely this century unless deep reductions are made within this decade to reach net zero emissions [1]. In 2021, the energy sector contributed to 75.7% of the total global emissions where energy sector emissions include electricity and heat, transportation, manufacturing and construction and buildings [2]. The energy-related carbon emissions reached 37.8 Gt CO₂ in 2024, with China contributing the highest towards global emissions, followed by the United States, the European Union and then India [3]. At the end of the spectrum, the Pacific region’s contribution is less than 0.03% of the world’s total GHG emissions [4,5], yet it is at the forefront of experiencing the adverse impacts of climate change.

The recent US–Iran conflict has created uncertainty in fuel supply and spikes in oil prices and insurance costs [6], where the Pacific region is no exception [7,8]. Even though the impacts will be time-delayed, uncertainty in fuel supply and price surges remains. Estrada et al. [9] had simulated a US–Iran war, and their analysis indicates that a high-intensity war between the US and its allies on one side and Iran on the other will have a huge impact on global fuel prices. In addition, the Russia–Ukraine conflict also constrained natural gas supply in European nations which led to steep surges in energy prices [10]. Oil accounts for about 80% of the Pacific region’s total energy supply, with a fuel bill of about US$6 billion per year, constituting around 5–15% of the gross domestic product of the Pacific Small Island Developing States (PSIDS) [5]. Thus, global conflicts remind nations of the vulnerabilities associated with excessive dependence on external energy sources.

Because energy is directly linked to climate change, there is a growing need to understand how the two are interlinked and what policy measures can be implemented to address these critical issues across regions worldwide. However, before exploring this, it is salient to understand the concepts of climate security and energy security.

Climate security has several dimensions and McDonald [11] deliberates on the impact of climate change on four key areas: (i) Human Security (people’s life and livelihoods are under threat because of climate change), (ii) National Security (there are economic losses because of extreme weather events), (iii) international security (sits between national and Human Security where the international organisations are tasked with responsibility of maintaining order amongst countries) and (iv) ecological security (loss of resources such as forests, fresh water sources, etc.). Hence, climate security is a multi-dimensional threat multiplier, meaning it does not just create new problems; it takes existing vulnerabilities in food, health, and infrastructure and amplifies them until they become national and international crises [12,13]. Because these systems are interconnected, failure in one dimension often triggers a “domino effect” across the others.

Recent scholarship has integrated resilience into this discourse. While Boas and Rothe [14] highlight the term’s growing importance, Ferguson [15] argues that one needs to look beyond military- or market-based resilience and focus more on building strong communities and healthy ecosystems to address climate security. Given its multifaceted nature, climate security bridges diverse stakeholder perspectives. It can be defined as the security implications of climate change in fragile environments, encompassing threats like societal and economic disruptions, resource conflicts, climate-induced displacement, and diminished community resilience [16,17].

On the other hand, initially, energy security in the 1970s focused on reducing reliance on imported fossil fuels during the oil supply crises [18]. However, despite oil being a limited resource, its supply, until recently, was no longer threatened as it had been in the past; consequently, the definition of energy security has evolved, and other current factors are now included in the discourse. For instance, Cherp and Jewell [19] defines energy security beyond the classic 4 A’s (affordability, accessibility, availability and acceptability of energy supplies), instead, they define energy security as “low vulnerability of vital energy systems” which encapsulates in its definition the risks and capability of energy systems to address the exposure to risks and their capacity to be resilient. Beyond international relations and geopolitical factors, robust domestic policies promoting diversification, energy efficiency, and emission reduction are crucial [20]. Wang and Zhou [21] further conceptualise energy security through three dimensions: supply-delivery security, utilisation safety, and political-socioeconomic stability.

While the policy intersection of climate change and energy security is gaining attention, research on their direct relationship remains limited [22]. Nyman [23] points out the inherent conflict: prioritising energy security through cheap fossil fuels exacerbates climate insecurity. Conversely, neglecting climate change in energy policy risks severe global consequences. However, empirical evidence from 39 countries in Europe over the period 1980–2019 indicates that transitioning to nuclear, renewables, and improved energy efficiency can significantly reduce GHG emissions and enhance energy security throughout Europe [24]. In Brazil, Vierira and Dalgaard [25] found that government policies prioritising massive hydroelectric dams and fossil fuels often overlook long-term sustainability. Furthermore, the recent global conflicts, the Ukraine–Russia conflict and the US–Iran conflict, have had adverse impacts on the energy security of nations, including in the Pacific. Hence, it is imperative to understand how energy security and climate security intersect across regions worldwide, including the Pacific.

As of Mid-2020, the Pacific region’s total population was 12,325,506. Papua New Guinea (PNG) has the largest population (8,934,475), followed by Fiji (894,961) and the Solomon Islands (712,071), as shown in Figure 1. The total land area of Pacific island nations is 551,542 km², with 98% of land area located in Melanesian countries (PNG, Solomon Islands, Fiji, New Caledonia, and Vanuatu), 1.5% in Polynesia, and 0.5% in Micronesia [26]. Thus, many PSIDS possess limited land resources but are rich in ocean resources, as evidenced by their large exclusive economic zones (EEZs). A significant portion of their population relies on fishing and farming [27], and Pacific island countries are primarily technology importers rather than manufacturers [28].

Economic constraints further exacerbate vulnerability. As illustrated in Figure 2, the 2018 GDP per capita at current prices for most PSIDS is below US$5000, significantly lower than the global average of US$11,289 [29]. The limited economies and geographic isolation of PSIDS from developed nations increase the costs associated with development initiatives through the high cost of importation and high brain drain [30,31]. Furthermore, the region is highly vulnerable to natural disasters, including frequent and intense tropical cyclones that have made landfall in recent years [32].

Figure 1. Map of Pacific Islands and their population. Reprinted with permission from Ref. [33]. Copyright 2020 Pacific Community (SPC).

Figure 1. Map of Pacific Islands and their population. Reprinted with permission from Ref. [33]. Copyright 2020 Pacific Community (SPC).

Figure 2. GDP at current prices per capita for PSIDS in 2018. Reprinted with permission from Ref. [34]. Copyright 2025 Pacific Data Hub.

Figure 2. GDP at current prices per capita for PSIDS in 2018. Reprinted with permission from Ref. [34]. Copyright 2025 Pacific Data Hub.

PSIDS are among the world’s most vulnerable to climate change and natural hazards [35] and it receives support from several entities. However, the support over the recent years has decreased and is now similar to pre-pandemic years, mainly because of the withdrawal of aid from the USAID [36]. The major development finance providers to the Pacific are Australia, Japan, EU institutions, New Zealand, ADB, the World Bank, the Green Climate Fund, and other donors, including China and Taiwan. [36]. It has been found that foreign aid can significantly reduce climate change vulnerability in Asia–Pacific countries, but there needs to be well-structured governance structures [37].

According to the World Risk Index report 2024, five PSIDS rank within the top 100 most at-risk countries where PNG and Solomon Islands are classified as very high risk, while Fiji and Vanuatu are categorised as high risk category [38]. To reduce climate change vulnerabilities, researchers have studied its impacts across sectors of the economy. Focusing on the Pacific region, researchers have studied the impacts of climate change on: food security, biodiversity [39,40], water availability [41,42,43], health [44,45,46], tourism [47], community resilience and livelihood [48], extreme weather events [49,50], economic resilience [51]. For energy security in the Pacific, Lal and Kumar [52] is calling for greater proliferation of renewable energy in the Pacific to enhance energy security in the region. There are researchers who are studying energy security for Pacific but these studies either have Pacific region merged together with the Asian region or Australia and New Zealand examples are taken from Pacific [20,53]. This means that the papers do not shed much light into the smaller Pacific island nations’ issues.

For the climate and energy security nexus, as this paper assesses, there is little literature on such a study in the Pacific. Howard’s systematic literature reviews [54] show that gender, climate change, and security are emerging topics in the Pacific region, and that more research is needed in this space. Bainton [55] has emphasised in their paper that the global energy transition to renewable energy which needs metals and minerals as raw materials has introduced a ‘compound exposure’ for the Pacific, where the intensified demand for mineral and metal mining from the resource-rich Pacific will exacerbate the region’s existing climate vulnerability. Further, Ge et al. [10] had studied energy security and climate policy uncertainty for China and not the Pacific but their study is interesting where it was found that primary driver of volatility in both energy security and climate transition risks is Climate Policy Uncertainty and thus requires policymakers, including the ones in the Pacific, to develop policies that ensures energy security and climate security so that ‘big players’ in the energy transition and the need to achieve climate goals are able to implement projects and programmes confidently. Prasad and Raturi [56] have recently studied the nexus between Sustainable Development Goals and Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) for Pacific Island countries, but this research did not consider the climate security dimension for the Pacific Island Countries, that is, human, national, international and ecological security.

The vulnerability of Pacific Island countries, including limited economies, dispersed populations across numerous islands, and isolation from developed nations, creates substantial challenges. These factors often necessitate that national governments prioritise essential services like health and education, sometimes at the expense of energy concerns. Global major powers often view PSIDS through the lens of strategic competition but Pacific nations are advocating for climate finance, fostering regional cooperation and pushing for inclusive governance structures [57]. The Pacific Islands serve as a stark reminder that climate security and energy security are not disparate issues but inextricably linked facets of a shared survival challenge. Navigating these dynamics of climate change and energy insecurity requires a new paradigm for policy development in the Pacific Islands.

While the existing literature has extensively documented the general environmental vulnerabilities of SIDS and regional studies have separately addressed Pacific energy security, a critical scholarly gap remains in understanding the interconnected climate–energy security nexus within the Pacific. Previous research often treats these domains as separate silos, focusing either on technical carbon-reduction metrics or high-level climate security theory. Hence, the main research question of this paper is “To what extent does the climate–energy security nexus in the PSIDS create unique ‘threat multipliers’ for national sovereignty, and how can a strategic policy mix of decarbonised energy systems mitigate these systemic risks?”

To address this research question, the following objectives are established:

• Using published literature definitions, assess what energy and climate security mean for the Pacific;
• Identify how climate drivers such as extreme weather events and rising temperatures act as physical and economic stressors on Pacific energy infrastructure;
• Evaluate the extent to which energy systems’ decarbonisation mitigates threats across human, national, international and ecological security dimensions;
• Identify regulatory, economic and informational policy instruments to enhance climate and energy security in Pacific SIDS.

This research offers a critical and timely intervention in the discourse on Pacific climate security, shifting the narrative from passive vulnerability to strategic energy autonomy through an integrative thematic review. It moves beyond aggregate data to qualitatively synthesise how non-linear stressors, such as the fiscal trap of post-disaster reconstruction and the demand-utility paradox of rising temperatures, interlink to impact Pacific security. The paper’s significance lies in reframing decarbonisation by suggesting that energy systems are not merely technical assets or climate change mitigation drivers but a primary line of defence against the erosion of human, national, and ecological security, that is, enhancing climate change adaptation. The study proposes a Nexus Mapping framework for advancing regional stability.

The originality of the work stems from its interpretive bridging of high-level climate security theory with the socio-technical realities of the Pacific. It synthesises literature beyond standard carbon-reduction metrics to explore rural and gender disparities in energy systems, and the potential legal threats to statehood posed by maritime inundation. By proposing a nuanced policy mix of regulatory, economic, and social instruments, the study aims to translate the synthesised evidence into actionable, culturally relevant frameworks. The potential scientific impact is a transformative model for island resilience that treats energy decarbonisation as a cornerstone of regional security and national survival.

While this study focuses specifically on Pacific SIDS, it recognises that Caribbean and African SIDS navigate parallel vulnerabilities in climate, economy, and global dependency. However, their geopolitical and regional frameworks differ significantly. For instance, Caribbean SIDS are strategically embedded within the Americas, while African SIDS like the Seychelles operate within the African Union and Indian Ocean frameworks [57]. By contrast, the Pacific case is analytically distinctive due to the Boe Declaration’s securitisation of climate change [58] and the specific legal threats to maritime statehood (discussed in Section 2.1.2) that necessitate a unique ‘Pacific-led’ energy sovereignty strategy.

The next section of the paper presents the integrative thematic literature review and assesses climate and energy insecurity in the Pacific region. Section 3 then presents the methodology, in which the Nexus approach is outlined. Section 4 presents the results of the climate and energy security nexus followed by Section 5 that identifies and discusses three main policy instruments in strengthening energy security and climate security in the region. Section 6 then presents the conclusions.

2. Integrative Thematic Literature Review: Climate–Energy Insecurity in PSIDS

2.1. Climate (In)Security in the Pacific

Pacific leaders, through the Boe Declaration, have identified climate change as the “single greatest threat to the livelihoods, security, and well-being of the people of the Pacific” [59]. This threat is not merely environmental; it represents an interconnected challenge in which rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and resource scarcity converge. Addressing these issues requires a nuanced understanding of climate security—one that encompasses human, national, international, and ecological dimensions.

2.1.1. Human Security—The Erosion of Livelihoods and Cultural Identity

For PSIDS, climate change is a daily reality that extends beyond physical safety to encompass livelihoods, cultural identity, and overall well-being.

Displacement and Cultural Loss

Sea-level rise and coastal erosion have necessitated relocating coastal communities to higher elevations as a climate adaptation strategy. However, many PSIDS resist displacement due to their fear of losing genealogies, culture, language, and indigenous identity, all of which are deeply tied to their land [60,61].

Resource Scarcity and Food Security

Climate change intensifies droughts, saltwater intrusion, and ocean acidification, directly impacting agricultural productivity and fisheries, which are crucial to the livelihoods of island communities. In Kiribati, for instance, increased temperatures, altered rainfall patterns, and sea-level rise have reduced groundwater supplies and increased salinity, leading to freshwater shortages in Tarawa and significantly affecting human health, well-being, and agricultural productivity [62].

Furthermore, rising sea surface temperatures drive coral bleaching, which accelerates shoreline erosion and devastates artisanal fisheries. This degradation also contributes to health risks like ciguatera fish poisoning [63]. Given the Pacific’s land-to-sea ratio of 1:300 [64], the health of these fisheries is vital for both food security and economic stability. This security is further threatened by tropical cyclones and storm surges, which damage boats, jetties, and infrastructure and, in turn, undermine island livelihoods.

Human Health Impacts and Infrastructure Vulnerability

The health consequences of climate change are both direct and indirect. For example, Category 5 Tropical Cyclone Winston, which made landfall in 2016, caused FJ$13.9 million in damages and losses to the health sector alone in Fiji [65]. The cyclone damaged 88 of 214 health facilities (41%), resulting in 44 human lives lost, more than 120 injuries, and 45 hospitalisations. Following the cyclone, increases in diarrheal diseases, leptospirosis, and typhoid were observed [65]. Similarly, another group of scientists assessed the quality of drinking water in Vanua Levu, Fiji, following Cyclone Ami in January 2003. They found that due to large amounts of silt and debris entering water supply sources after the cyclone, turbidity and total coliform levels increased significantly (by up to 56% and 62%, respectively) from pre-cyclone levels [66]. Beyond physical ailments, the psychological toll is immense. A mental health survey in the Solomon Islands revealed anxieties about sea-level rise and saltwater intrusion into homes, particularly during high tides [67].

Gendered Vulnerabilities

The impacts of climate change are not gender neutral. Women and girls often bear a disproportionate burden, particularly in tasks like water and firewood collection, and face increased vulnerability to violence and exploitation during disaster-related displacement. Howard [54] highlights the superficiality and lack of diversity in existing literature on gendered impacts in the Pacific and calls for further research in this dimension. Prasad et al. [68] conducted an impact of biogas digesters on households in one of the outer maritime islands in Fiji and report that heavy rain and the weight of wet firewood cause body pain for women collecting and transporting it (on foot) for cooking. Hence, further research is needed linking energy and gender.

2.1.2. National Security—Territorial Integrity and Resource Sovereignty

Climate change poses a direct threat to the National Security of PSIDS by challenging their territorial integrity and resource sovereignty. While these nations are generally peaceful, land disputes, often rooted in customary ownerships, are frequent and difficult to resolve due to the misalignment of traditional and modern governance structures [69].

Sea-level rise serves as a primary catalyst for this instability. Low-lying island nations like Tuvalu exemplify this vulnerability; as a fragile, remote, and resource-poor state, its survival depends on factors beyond its local territorial control [70]. Beyond physical inundation, climate change destabilises economies by disrupting agriculture, forcing an increased reliance on expensive food imports, and causing catastrophic GDP losses—estimated between 20 and 60% of GDP-following major cyclones [32,70].

The Crisis of Statehood and Maritime Law

Beyond land territories, PSIDS are large oceanic states that rely heavily on fisheries, and they have been pivotal in developing international maritime and ocean law [71]. However, as per international definitions, (i) once small island states are submerged under water due to sea level rise because of climate change, the island country would lose its sovereignty because, as per international definitions, “a state is an entity with a defined territory on land, permanent population, government and capacity to enter into relations with other states” [72], and (ii) secondly, the inundation of land has an impact on maritime boundaries through shrinking baselines. So, Vaha et al. [71] argue that, as the islands are submerging, the PSIDS are losing their sovereignty, because states cannot exist without land, which is required for civilisation. Consequently, Pacific Island Forum leaders issued declarations in 2021 and 2023 advocating for the permanence of maritime boundaries and continuous statehood of Pacific nations, regardless of physical land loss [71,73].

Resource Scarcity and Social Tension

Climate-induced resource scarcity can exacerbate existing tensions and lead to new conflicts between communities and states. The increasing frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones strain the limited resources of PSIDS and the capacity of governments to respond. Also, Campbell [74] reports that in the town of Gizo (Solomon Islands), Majuro (Marshall Islands), and Funafuti (Tuvalu), fishing has become less productive because lagoons have become polluted and overfishing occurs. This has forced a shift toward imported, processed foods, resulting in a “double burden” of malnutrition—high rates of both underweight and overweight populations [74,75]. Furthermore, the loss of pristine beaches to coastal erosion threatens the tourism sector, which is a vital source of foreign exchange and national income in Pacific Island countries.

2.1.3. International Security—Regional Stability and Global Governance

The profound implications of climate change for PSIDS necessitate a transformation in global governance and cooperation. International organisations play a critical role. For instance, the IPCC provides the scientific baseline for policy, while the Green Climate Fund, established under the UNFCCC, is a good example of how international bodies mobilise funds to support climate mitigation and adaptation projects and programmes. Multilateral agencies such as the World Bank, Asian Development Bank, and United Nations provide support (technical and financial) to countries in addressing climate change and development issues.

Despite these efforts, international bodies face significant hurdles in managing conflicts over dwindling resources and contested sovereignty [76]. Current international law often fails to recognise the damage caused by emissions from developed states that threaten the lives and existence of PSIDS. To address this legal vacuum, some scholars suggest adopting the term “warming war” to catalyse urgent legal avenues for redress and to redefine the responsibility of developed nations toward the security of small island states [77]. However, recently the International Court of Justice has ruled that countries are legally obliged to protect and prevent harm to the environment, and that countries must take actions to mitigate climate change [78]. This ruling prompts countries to rethink their climate protection pledges and the tangible actions they are taking to curb global GHG emissions.

2.1.4. Ecological Security—Protecting Vulnerable Ecosystems

The ecological security of PSIDS is inextricably linked to their human, national and international security. In the Pacific, healthy terrestrial and marine ecosystems are not merely environmental assets; they are the lifeblood of communities, essential for livelihoods, well-being, and long-term survival of island communities.

Marine Ecosystems and the Ocean Economy

The Pacific is highly dependent on the ocean for sustaining its livelihoods, and according to a modelling study by Anthony et al. [79] severe acidification and warming alone can lower reef resilience via impairment of coral growth and increased coral mortality. Furthermore, under the illustrative high-emission scenario (IPCC RCP8.5), 92% of coral cover is projected to be lost by 2100 [80].

Research across Palau, the Marshall Islands, and American Samoa highlights a universal vulnerability: regardless of the size of their local economies, every island relies critically on fisheries for both consumption and exports. Furthermore, these nations depend on coral reefs for essential ecosystem services, including coastal protection from storm surges and recreational activities that drive tourism [81].

Terrestrial Biodiversity and Global Hotspots

Beyond the reefs, terrestrial biodiversity is also under threat from sea-level rise and extreme weather events. The Pacific region encompasses three global biodiversity hotspots characterised by numerous endemic species [82]. Given the deep ancestral connection between Pacific people and their environment, this means that biodiversity loss has cascading effects on livelihoods, cultural heritage, and the Pacific way of life [83]. Tropical cyclones also contribute to rapid deforestation through destructive high winds [84]. These events cause both direct forest loss and complex indirect impacts that relate to habitat fragmentation and species decline [85].

Climate Risks and the SDGs

To summarise the systematic nature of these threats, the WMO [86] presents the interconnected risks associated with climate change (see Figure S1 in Supplementary Materials). These apply to the Pacific region, and overall, it is seen that due to sea level rise, ocean acidification, ocean heat content and global mean surface temperature, several UN SDGs are adversely affected and as noted by Prasad and Raturi [56] the progress of SDGs has been slow in the Pacific region. So, climate change slows or regresses SDG progress.

2.2. Energy (In)Security in the Pacific

Energy security, traditionally defined by the availability, affordability, and accessibility of energy, now crucially incorporates the acceptability of energy systems—emphasising sustainability—and the low vulnerability of vital energy infrastructure [19]. For PSIDS, achieving energy security means closely assessing the challenges and opportunities that are intricately woven into their unique geographical, social, economic, and environmental contexts.

Recent studies, including [52,87], discuss energy security in the Pacific region, and provide updated data. Additionally, the region has a framework for enhancing energy security [88], and individual countries have their own national policies and strategic documents that guide energy development. Common approaches to achieving energy security across PSIDS include reliability of supply, accessibility, affordability, efficiency of use, environmental quality/renewable energy, resilience, adequate institutional framework and enabling environment, and sufficient capacity, technical knowledge and data availability [87].

2.2.1. The Fossil Fuel Dilemma

As shown in Table 1, the Pacific region has set ambitious targets for decarbonising its electricity generation sector, with many aiming for 100% renewable electricity generation. However, the actual share of renewable energy in electricity generation indicates that PSIDS have a long way to go, with most islands having shares below 25%. This implies a heavy reliance on fossil fuels, mainly diesel or heavy fuel oil, for electricity generation, which carries an economic burden on the nation and on customers who pay high electricity tariffs.

Beyond electricity, the transport sector in PSIDS is almost 100% reliant on imported fossil fuels. On average, the transport sector consumes 56% of all imported fuels, while electricity generation accounts for 34% [87]. As seen in Figure 3a and Figure S2a–c, the energy balances for different countries [89] show that all PSIDS are 100% dependent on fossil fuels in their transport sectors, which are composed of road transport, maritime transport, and domestic air transport. In 2022, Figure 3b shows that, on average, 83% of electricity generation in PSIDS was from non-renewable sources [90]. This dependency has severe economic implications: in 2015, fuel imports averaged 10% of national GDP across the region, ranging from 5% in Vanuatu to 16% in Tuvalu [52]. Such expenditures divert substantial funds from other critical development initiatives.

2.2.2. Electricity Access and the Shift to Micro-Grids

On a positive note, PSIDS have relatively good electricity access rates, as seen in Table 1. However, one should note that, while electricity access is high in island countries, levels of access vary across smaller, remote maritime islands within a PIC. For example, while Fiji’s rural electricity access is 86.8%, the government has prioritised solar home systems (SHSs) for off-grid households where grid extension is technically or financially unfeasible. SHS provide basic lighting and limited power to electrical loads but faces sustainability challenges due to a lack of end-user training in the operation and maintenance of the systems, a lack of technician availability in remote areas, and other challenges [91,92].

Moreover, SHSs do not provide the same level of energy services as grid-connected systems; that is, a lot of electrical load cannot be connected to a typical 300 W SHS [92]. Recently, through the Fiji Rural Electrification Fund (FREF), the Fijian government has shifted focus to developing micro-grids with solar photovoltaic, battery storage, and diesel generator backup [93]. A pilot project has been implemented on Vio Island, and feasibility studies have been conducted at 75 sites in Fiji [94], of which a few projects have acquired financing to be implemented as part of the FREF project.

2.2.3. The Clean Cooking Crisis and Gender Security

Access to clean cooking energy in Pacific Island countries is a significant concern. Table 1 reveals a substantial disparity between urban and rural areas, with some countries reporting rural clean cooking energy access as low as 0.90%. This poses a threat to the security of women and girls, who are primarily responsible for household cooking. They often travel long distances to collect firewood, resulting in physical strain, and suffer eye irritation from kerosene and wood stove use [68,95].

2.2.4. Affordability and the “Rural Premium”

Energy affordability at both the national and household levels is another critical consideration. As highlighted in the Introduction section, PSIDS spend a significant share (5–15%) of their GDP on fossil fuel imports. Additionally, households in Pacific nations face alarmingly high energy prices, where (i) the oil price ranges from US$0.70 per litre to US$1.82 per litre and gas price can reach to around US$4.00 per kg (see Supplementary Figure S3) [96], (ii) the share of energy costs in the total household expenditure can go as high as 23% (see Supplementary Figure S4) [97], and (iii) grid electricity price can be as high as US$0.89/kWh (see Supplementary Figure S5) [97]. Compared to the Caribbean region, where electricity tariffs average US$0.25/kWh [98], PSIDS generally have higher grid electricity tariffs (approximately US$0.39/kWh), except for Fiji, as shown in Supplementary Figure S5. This highlights the affordability challenges faced by PSIDS.

The “rural premium” [99] further exacerbates this issue. Due to geographical dispersion and high logistical costs, LPG cylinders on remote islands such as Tuvalu can cost nearly three times as much as in Fiji [100]. Moreover, off-grid households relying on diesel generators, SHS, or microgrids pay significantly higher tariffs than grid-connected customers. For example, in Fiji, households in Vio Islands pay US$0.838/kWh [101], while grid-connected customers pay US$0.1496/kWh [102], a 5.6-fold difference. Foster and Witte [103] suggest that energy costs should ideally be 5–10% of the household income, but in the Pacific, particularly in rural and remote areas, this percentage is likely much higher. The recent report from IEA [104] further reinforces this issue and highlights that households’ inability to afford energy can negatively impact health and educational outcomes by exposing people to illness risks, hindering productivity levels, reducing study time, and hampering the ease of access to quality learning.

Table 1. Energy landscape for PSIDS. Adapted from Ref. [105]. Data source: [87,105].

Country	Renewable Energy Target	Improve EE Target	Electricity Access Target	Clean Cooking Energy Access	Actual RE Share in Electricity Generation in 2018 (%)	Actual Fossil Fuel Dependence in Transport (2021 Data) [89]	Actual % of Population with Electricity Access in 2021			Actual % of Population with Primary Reliance on Clean Cooking Energy in 2021
							National	Urban	Rural	National	Urban	Rural
Cook Islands	100% by 2020				25	100%				78.7	98	25.2
Fiji	100% by 2030		100% by 2020		60	100%	92.1	96	86.8	51.4	69.1	27.5
FSM	30% by 2020				2.7 *	100%
Kiribati	23% by 2025				17	100%	92.8	88.3	94.3	12.4	20.4	1.70
Nauru	50% by 2020	30% increase in efficiency by 2020			2	100%	100	100	100	100	100	100
Niue	80% by 2020			No definite target given but mention in its NDC substituting cooking fuel to reduce emissions	14	100%				98.4	98.4	98.4
Palau	45% by 2025	35% EE improvement by 2025			2	100%	100	100	100	43.0	42.0	42.75
PNG	100% by 2030				69.2 *	100%
RMI	100% by 2050		95% by 2020	Phase out kerosene by 2050	2	No data	99.8	96	100	66.7	87.0	0.90
Samoa	100% by 2025				42	100%	98.3	100	97.9	37.2	65.8	30.2
Solomon Islands	79% by 2030				6	100%	76.3	79.2	75.4	8.90	35.6	1.20
Tokelau	100% in long term				0 *	No data
Tonga	50% by 2020		100% by 2020		10	100%	100	100	100	86.8	94.7	84.5
Tuvalu	100% by 2020	30% EE improvement by 2020			23	100%	99.7	100	99.1	74.6	94.8	40.9
Vanuatu	100% by 2030		100% by 2030	NDC mentions improving energy efficiency in biomass energy use for cooking and drying	22	100%	70	97	60.7	6.90	18.7	1.70

* data is for 2017 sourced from [87].

Table 1. Energy landscape for PSIDS. Adapted from Ref. [105]. Data source: [87,105].

Country	Renewable Energy Target	Improve EE Target	Electricity Access Target	Clean Cooking Energy Access	Actual RE Share in Electricity Generation in 2018 (%)	Actual Fossil Fuel Dependence in Transport (2021 Data) [89]	Actual % of Population with Electricity Access in 2021			Actual % of Population with Primary Reliance on Clean Cooking Energy in 2021
							National	Urban	Rural	National	Urban	Rural
Cook Islands	100% by 2020				25	100%				78.7	98	25.2
Fiji	100% by 2030		100% by 2020		60	100%	92.1	96	86.8	51.4	69.1	27.5
FSM	30% by 2020				2.7 *	100%
Kiribati	23% by 2025				17	100%	92.8	88.3	94.3	12.4	20.4	1.70
Nauru	50% by 2020	30% increase in efficiency by 2020			2	100%	100	100	100	100	100	100
Niue	80% by 2020			No definite target given but mention in its NDC substituting cooking fuel to reduce emissions	14	100%				98.4	98.4	98.4
Palau	45% by 2025	35% EE improvement by 2025			2	100%	100	100	100	43.0	42.0	42.75
PNG	100% by 2030				69.2 *	100%
RMI	100% by 2050		95% by 2020	Phase out kerosene by 2050	2	No data	99.8	96	100	66.7	87.0	0.90
Samoa	100% by 2025				42	100%	98.3	100	97.9	37.2	65.8	30.2
Solomon Islands	79% by 2030				6	100%	76.3	79.2	75.4	8.90	35.6	1.20
Tokelau	100% in long term				0 *	No data
Tonga	50% by 2020		100% by 2020		10	100%	100	100	100	86.8	94.7	84.5
Tuvalu	100% by 2020	30% EE improvement by 2020			23	100%	99.7	100	99.1	74.6	94.8	40.9
Vanuatu	100% by 2030		100% by 2030	NDC mentions improving energy efficiency in biomass energy use for cooking and drying	22	100%	70	97	60.7	6.90	18.7	1.70

* data is for 2017 sourced from [87].

3. Materials and Methods

This study utilises a qualitative research design to examine the systemic interconnections between climate security and energy security within PSIDS. The research framework is built on the premise that these two domains are not disparate issues, but, as identified by Pacific leaders in the Boe Declaration [58], inextricably linked facets of a shared survival challenge.

To address the central research question, this study adopts an interdisciplinary analytical framework that integrates a thematic literature review with Nexus Mapping. This approach is necessitated by the complex nature of the climate–energy security nexus, which requires synthesising technical energy data with environmental drivers and political security dimensions. By utilising this framework, the study moves beyond a descriptive summary to qualitatively analyse the non-linear causal pathways between climate stressors and energy vulnerabilities in the Pacific context.

3.1. Integrative Thematic Literature Review Protocol

The current study used an integrative thematic literature review [60] where papers related to the Pacific on climate security and energy security were analysed, with references also made to the strategic documents of the Pacific region. This study adopts an integrative approach similar to [57], as the interdisciplinary nature of the climate–energy nexus requires synthesising data that are dispersed across multiple legal, technical and environmental fields. The foundational data for this paper was gathered through an extensive review of literature, multilateral reports, and regional policy documents related to climate security and energy security.

Search strings: Primary search strings focused on the four dimensions of climate security—human, national, international, and ecological—and the evolving definitions of energy security, specifically the “4 A’s” (affordability, accessibility, availability, and acceptability). In addition, search strings: “impacts of climate change on energy infrastructure, power infrastructure, availability of energy resources, and energy infrastructure resilience in Pacific” were used.

Database: Peer-reviewed articles were sourced from the Scopus database (Elsevier B.V., Amsterdam, The Netherlands) and Google Scholar (Google LLC, Mountain View, CA, USA). To ensure the inclusion of regional specificities, the study sourced data from the Pacific Data Hub and institutional publications from the Pacific Community (SPC), the Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP), the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).

Timelines: While no restrictive start date was set to capture foundational Pacific research, the selection process prioritised recent publications (2010–2026) to reflect current geopolitical shifts and the 2018 Boe Declaration.

Inclusion and Exclusion criteria: This study employed an expert-led, purposive sampling strategy to select literature most relevant to the Pacific climate–energy nexus. Initial themes were established based on preliminary scoping of the field and the author’s professional expertise in Pacific energy policy. Inclusion criteria focused on (i) global theoretical frameworks required to define the climate–energy security nexus and (ii) peer-reviewed research and grey literature (policy reports, NGO briefs) containing specific Pacific case examples. Exclusion criteria were applied to technical studies that focused on geographic regions with no translatable relevance to the PSIDS archipelagic reality.

Screening and Synthesis: Abstracts were screened for thematic alignment with the study’s core variables, physical impact, demand-side sensitivity and resource availability, ensuring a focus on regional stability. Following this expert-led screening, 170 sources were used in the study.

To quantify the region’s heavy reliance on imported fossil fuels and the economic impact of climate-induced disasters, the study analysed PSIDS energy balances, sourced from the United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD), and electricity generation data from IRENA.

3.2. Analytical Framework

A core component of the methodology was interpretive “Nexus Mapping,” [106] a process for visualising and analysing the causal, non-linear relationships between distinct but overlapping domains—in this case, climate change and energy system vulnerabilities. Instead of treating these sectors in silos, Nexus Mapping (Figure 4) identifies how a change in one domain triggers a domino effect across others. To ensure methodological rigour, the study employed the following four-stage analytical protocol:

A: Mapping and component identification—the process began by mapping the core variables unique to the PSIDS context. The first being the climate drivers such as extreme weather events (cyclones, floods, etc.), rising land/sea temperatures, and sea-level rise. The second variable was the Energy system vulnerabilities, which comprises heavy reliance on imported fossil fuels, centralised grid fragility and high energy costs, especially in rural and small maritime outer islands. The third variable is the security dimensions that encapsulate human, national, international and ecological security. The selection of these components was guided by the author’s expertise in Pacific’s energy systems and the synthesis of literature in Section 2.

B: Coding and categorising of analytical streams—the coding process involved a qualitative, thematic approach where literature and policy data were coded into three thematic streams to trace causal pathways (as seen in Figure 4). (i) Physical Impact mapping—this analysed how climate events physically damage energy infrastructure, such as high category cyclones damaging power lines, jetties and interrupting the supply of fuels and services to outer, smaller maritime islands. (ii) Demand-side sensitivity—this maps how shifting climatic patterns alter energy consumption, for instance, mean temperatures drive a surge in demand for air conditioning and water pumping. (iii) Resource availability analysis—this examines the sensitivity of renewable energy “fuel” sources, such as hydro resources, solar resources and biomass resources, to climate change. In addition, cross-cutting issues for climate–energy security in PSIDS were identified and discussed.

C: Comparison of regional evidence—Pacific-specific case examples (for instance, cyclones in Samoa or hydro-vulnerabilities in Fiji) were compared against global energy and climate security theories to determine whether the Pacific case confirms, extends, or challenges the literature.

D: Interpretive synthesis of the “policy mix”—the final stage involved a qualitative interpretation of these interconnections to identify cross-cutting bottlenecks and threat multipliers. This enabled a transition from theoretical security definitions to the development of a context-specific PSIDS strategy. Drawing on the author’s professional judgement, the interpretive synthesis identifies policy instruments (regulatory, economic and social) that address multiple vulnerabilities simultaneously.

The overall methodological steps used in this study are summarised in Figure 5.

3.3. Research Scope, Limitations and Scope for Future Work

This research focused on content analysis from published literature. As part of future work, an empirical study could be conducted to assess a community in a Pacific island country with respect to its climate and energy security, including how the community addresses these issues and what further actions could be taken. This type of study could be a comparative analysis of different countries, including selected Pacific Island countries and selected developing countries from other regions.

Quantitative data is lacking in this research. Future work could consider obtaining updated disaggregated energy statistics from Pacific Island Countries and analysing progress in achieving energy security, the extent to which this supports climate security, and the energy-related aid provided in the region.

4. Results

Bashir et al. [107] have analysed data on the 25 largest energy-consuming countries from 1990 to 2021 and found that the energy transition and energy transformation reduce energy security risks, while climate change, trade openness and financial market development exacerbate energy challenges. However, in the Pacific region, climate and energy security themes have often been analysed separately. The results presented in this section emerge from an integrative synthesis of interdisciplinary literature and regional policy documents. By utilising the Nexus Mapping framework described in Section 3, the study identifies non-linear causal pathways where climatic stressors directly intersect with energy system vulnerabilities. The following analysis categorises these interconnections (shown in Figure 4) through three coded analytical streams (physical impact, demand-side sensitivity and resource availability). This enabled the work to move beyond descriptive summary toward a rigorous interpretive understanding of the climate–energy security in PSIDS.

4.1. Adverse Impacts of Climate Change on PSIDS

The interpretive mapping (arrow labelled 1 in Figure 4) illustrates that extreme weather events driven by climate change result in significant loss and damage to both people and the country as a whole. For instance, Tropical Cyclone (TC) Evan in 2012 resulted in 14 deaths in Samoa and 10 missing sailors [108]. Similarly, TC Winston in 2016 caused 44 fatalities in Fiji and affected 62% of the population due to storm surges, waves, and flying debris [109]. These events are mapped not just as environmental disasters but as systemic disruptors that severely damaged housing, agriculture, education, and health facilities, as well as critical communication, water supply, and electricity networks—leaving many islands and remote communities isolated for days. Section 2.1 has thoroughly discussed these impacts and other impacts.

4.2. Adverse Impacts of Climate Change on PSIDS Energy Systems

The relationship between climatic stressors and energy security in the Pacific is interpreted through a “threat multiplier” lens, where environmental events not only damage infrastructure but also paralyse the socio-economic systems that depend on it. Table 2 represents the qualitative synthesis of these vulnerabilities. Through the Nexus Mapping protocol, these impacts are categorised into direct physical infrastructure failure, indirect demand-side pressures, and the degradation of renewable “fuel” resources.

4.2.1. Climate Change and Energy Infrastructure

The physical impact coding stream identifies that Pacific energy infrastructure is fundamentally vulnerable due to the region’s archipelagic geography, which creates a high risk for energy delivery. High-category cyclones [110] act as the primary physical trigger, setting off a domino effect that begins with damage to port assets and ends with the grounding of maritime transport vessels. As interpreted in Table 2 under Maritime and Fuel Logistics, events like TC Evan in Samoa and TC Winston in Fiji [108,109,111] paralysed the transport of critical fuels such as LPG and diesel, transforming a localised weather event into a regional Human Security crisis.

Furthermore, the synthesis highlights these events as fiscal stressors. For instance, the US$626 million in total losses from TC Winston [109] and US$200 million in damages from a high-category cyclone in Samoa illustrates how repetitive reconstruction costs divert national development funds toward disaster recovery. This cycle is reinforced by the recent impact of TC Vaianu (April 2026) in Fiji, where torrential rain and flooding have once again outpaced existing engineering standards, causing immediate losses in properties, agricultural sectors and damage to power infrastructure [112].

Strategic Integration: To mitigate these gaps, the author proposes a shift from “project-based” pilots to national-scale technical sovereignty. As suggested in Table 2, this includes the strategic undergrounding of transmission lines engineered for Pacific-specific landslide risks and the promotion of decentralised solar PV (an example is the Fiji Renewable Energy Fund that promotes solar mini-grid development [113]) and biogas systems. These “islanded” systems may serve as a primary defence for maintaining essential services—such as cooking sovereignty—when maritime supply lines are severed. Apart from the electricity sector, focus also needs to go towards greener or cleaner transport fleets, either by the use of biofuels, or electricity in vehicles or maritime vessels [114,115]. 41% of the second NDCs of PSIDS mention reduction in emissions from the transport sector, and so there is now a slow uptake of electric vehicles in the Cook Islands, Fiji, Nauru, Marshall Islands, Samoa, Tuvalu [116] and e-bikes in Vanuatu [117].

Table 2. Synthesis of energy systems’ vulnerabilities and climate security nexus.

Category	Climate-Related Issues and Impacts	Specific PSIDS Case Examples	Security Dimensions Impacted	Proposed Mitigation and Resilience Strategies
Climate change and Energy infrastructure
Power Grid & Transmission	High winds, flooding and landslides causing service disruptions; vulnerability of transmission repair capacity [110].	Samoa (TC Evan, 2012): Power sector ranked 2nd most vulnerable; hydropower dams and diesel power station were damaged, 60% restored in 4 weeks, but transmission remained fragile [111].	National Security: Economic losses from disrupted industry.	Transition to underground lines engineered for flood/landslide resilience.
Maritime & Fuel Logistics	Storm surges damaging ports/jetties; grounded ferries severing outer-island supply chains.	Fiji & Samoa (2012–2016): Beaching of Queen Salamasina and damaged jetties paralysed transport of LPG and generator fuel [108,109,118].	Human Security: Threats to life/livelihoods; International Security: Regional order risks.	Adoption of decentralised energy systems. For instance, biogas for cooking sovereignty during supply chain breaks. Transport: land transport and maritime transport in Pacific are almost completely dependent on imported fuels, countries to look at alternative fuels, biofuels or electric or hydrogen and improving energy efficiency. For instance, Samoa is piloting electric boats [115].
Climate change and energy demand
Energy Demand	1.1 °C temperature rise driving cooling demand and utility strain.	Fiji (2022–2023): Low dam levels at Monasavu forced the use of 65 MW of containerised diesel sets [119,120] Pacific Region: Notable rise in mean land temperature since 1951, characterised by more “hot days” and fewer “cold nights” [121].	Human Security: Heat-stress health risks; Ecological Security: Increased resource intensity.	Promoting energy-efficient design and passive cooling using traditional “fale” architecture [122].
Climate change and renewable energy resource
Generation Assets	Damage to hydropower dams and diesel stations; drought-induced reduction in hydro output. Freshwater scarcity Damages to biomass [123]	Fiji (2022–2023): Low dam levels at Monasavu forced the use of 65 MW of containerised diesel sets [119,120]. Not enough feedstock for biomass power plants	Ecological Security: Loss of freshwater; National Security: Reduced energy self-sufficiency.	Diversifying with decentralised solar PV and localised fuel alternatives like biogas/hydrogen [124]. Proper planning of biomass lots for energy production
Cross-cutting issues
Capital & Finance	Catastrophic GDP losses from intense cyclones; high cost of post-disaster reconstruction.	Vanuatu & Tonga: Annualised losses estimated at 6.6% and 4.3% of GDP, respectively [125]. Fiji (TC Winston): US$626M in total losses, with the electricity and transport sectors incurring US$8.65 million and US27.11 million in damages, respectively [109]. Samoa: high-category cyclones in Samoa in 1990 and again in 1991 caused US$130 million and US$200 million in damages, respectively, to electrical, water and telephone connections, as well as widespread destruction of buildings, schools, and homes. Recovery from these events was prolonged, and two decades later, TC Evan in 2012 caused even more extensive damage [108].	National Security: Destabilised economies; Human Security: Diverted social funds.	Implementing accessible climate finance and “de-risking” private investment [126].
Capacity & Technical Sovereignty	High reliance on external consultants; “brain drain” [30,31] of local technicians; lack of O&M for remote systems [127].	Regional (2020–2025): failure of off-grid solar in rural areas due to lack of local repair capacity [128] and “fly-in fly-out” models (where technicians go from mainland to outer islands).	Human Security: Loss of local jobs; National Security: Dependency on foreign aid/expertise.	Establishing regional “Training Hubs” and empowering community technicians for long-term O&M.
Governance & Land Tenure	Misalignment between modern energy projects and traditional land-owning units; delays in RE deployment.	Fiji & Melanesia: Large-scale hydro often face multi-year delays due to customary land lease negotiations [129,130].	International Security: Risks to regional order; National Security: Legal disputes over project sites.	Formalising “Benefit-Sharing” frameworks and incorporating Traditional Ecological Knowledge into project planning.
Logistics	Extreme distances (186 M km2 of ocean) make supply chains for maintenance and fuel highly vulnerable [131].	Vanuatu & Solomons: Among the lowest grid connectivity rates globally; high electricity tariffs [131].	Human Security: Uneven access to essential services; National Security: High transport-driven costs.	Adopting a “Whole-of-Island” planning framework; local technician training to reduce reliance on external contractors [131].
Energy Justice & Gender	Women bear the brunt of energy poverty (e.g., fuel collection) while excluded from technical roles [68,100,132].	Fiji (FREF Project): Designing systems around women’s daily patterns to reflect lived realities rather than abstract models [131,133].	Human Security: Gendered health and labour burdens; Ecological Security: Reliance on biomass.	Implementing Procedural Justice: Ensuring women and youth are active partners in energy governance and repair training.

Table 2. Synthesis of energy systems’ vulnerabilities and climate security nexus.

Category	Climate-Related Issues and Impacts	Specific PSIDS Case Examples	Security Dimensions Impacted	Proposed Mitigation and Resilience Strategies
Climate change and Energy infrastructure
Power Grid & Transmission	High winds, flooding and landslides causing service disruptions; vulnerability of transmission repair capacity [110].	Samoa (TC Evan, 2012): Power sector ranked 2nd most vulnerable; hydropower dams and diesel power station were damaged, 60% restored in 4 weeks, but transmission remained fragile [111].	National Security: Economic losses from disrupted industry.	Transition to underground lines engineered for flood/landslide resilience.
Maritime & Fuel Logistics	Storm surges damaging ports/jetties; grounded ferries severing outer-island supply chains.	Fiji & Samoa (2012–2016): Beaching of Queen Salamasina and damaged jetties paralysed transport of LPG and generator fuel [108,109,118].	Human Security: Threats to life/livelihoods; International Security: Regional order risks.	Adoption of decentralised energy systems. For instance, biogas for cooking sovereignty during supply chain breaks. Transport: land transport and maritime transport in Pacific are almost completely dependent on imported fuels, countries to look at alternative fuels, biofuels or electric or hydrogen and improving energy efficiency. For instance, Samoa is piloting electric boats [115].
Climate change and energy demand
Energy Demand	1.1 °C temperature rise driving cooling demand and utility strain.	Fiji (2022–2023): Low dam levels at Monasavu forced the use of 65 MW of containerised diesel sets [119,120] Pacific Region: Notable rise in mean land temperature since 1951, characterised by more “hot days” and fewer “cold nights” [121].	Human Security: Heat-stress health risks; Ecological Security: Increased resource intensity.	Promoting energy-efficient design and passive cooling using traditional “fale” architecture [122].
Climate change and renewable energy resource
Generation Assets	Damage to hydropower dams and diesel stations; drought-induced reduction in hydro output. Freshwater scarcity Damages to biomass [123]	Fiji (2022–2023): Low dam levels at Monasavu forced the use of 65 MW of containerised diesel sets [119,120]. Not enough feedstock for biomass power plants	Ecological Security: Loss of freshwater; National Security: Reduced energy self-sufficiency.	Diversifying with decentralised solar PV and localised fuel alternatives like biogas/hydrogen [124]. Proper planning of biomass lots for energy production
Cross-cutting issues
Capital & Finance	Catastrophic GDP losses from intense cyclones; high cost of post-disaster reconstruction.	Vanuatu & Tonga: Annualised losses estimated at 6.6% and 4.3% of GDP, respectively [125]. Fiji (TC Winston): US$626M in total losses, with the electricity and transport sectors incurring US$8.65 million and US27.11 million in damages, respectively [109]. Samoa: high-category cyclones in Samoa in 1990 and again in 1991 caused US$130 million and US$200 million in damages, respectively, to electrical, water and telephone connections, as well as widespread destruction of buildings, schools, and homes. Recovery from these events was prolonged, and two decades later, TC Evan in 2012 caused even more extensive damage [108].	National Security: Destabilised economies; Human Security: Diverted social funds.	Implementing accessible climate finance and “de-risking” private investment [126].
Capacity & Technical Sovereignty	High reliance on external consultants; “brain drain” [30,31] of local technicians; lack of O&M for remote systems [127].	Regional (2020–2025): failure of off-grid solar in rural areas due to lack of local repair capacity [128] and “fly-in fly-out” models (where technicians go from mainland to outer islands).	Human Security: Loss of local jobs; National Security: Dependency on foreign aid/expertise.	Establishing regional “Training Hubs” and empowering community technicians for long-term O&M.
Governance & Land Tenure	Misalignment between modern energy projects and traditional land-owning units; delays in RE deployment.	Fiji & Melanesia: Large-scale hydro often face multi-year delays due to customary land lease negotiations [129,130].	International Security: Risks to regional order; National Security: Legal disputes over project sites.	Formalising “Benefit-Sharing” frameworks and incorporating Traditional Ecological Knowledge into project planning.
Logistics	Extreme distances (186 M km2 of ocean) make supply chains for maintenance and fuel highly vulnerable [131].	Vanuatu & Solomons: Among the lowest grid connectivity rates globally; high electricity tariffs [131].	Human Security: Uneven access to essential services; National Security: High transport-driven costs.	Adopting a “Whole-of-Island” planning framework; local technician training to reduce reliance on external contractors [131].
Energy Justice & Gender	Women bear the brunt of energy poverty (e.g., fuel collection) while excluded from technical roles [68,100,132].	Fiji (FREF Project): Designing systems around women’s daily patterns to reflect lived realities rather than abstract models [131,133].	Human Security: Gendered health and labour burdens; Ecological Security: Reliance on biomass.	Implementing Procedural Justice: Ensuring women and youth are active partners in energy governance and repair training.

4.2.2. Climate Change and Energy Demand

Beyond physical damage, the demand-side coding stream identifies that rising temperatures—recorded at a 1.1 °C increase since 1951 [121]—create an indirect feedback loop that undermines utility stability. This thermal stress drives a surge in electricity demand for cooling, forcing utilities into a “Demand-Utility Paradox”. In Fiji, for example, the synthesis identifies that low dam levels combined with peak demand necessitated the deployment of 65 MW of carbon-intensive containerised diesel generators to maintain grid stability [119,120].

Strategic Integration: Modernising the sector requires the integration of Traditional Ecological Knowledge (TEK) [122] with modern efficiency standards. As suggested in Table 2, the traditional Samoan “fale” architecture offers a blueprint for nature-based design that provides passive cooling and thermal comfort without the capital-intensive requirement for mechanical air conditioning. Further, integrating indigenous design elements into modern construction helps ensure that buildings remain climate-resilient and thermally comfortable while honouring cultural identity.

4.2.3. Climate Change and Renewable Energy Resources

The resource availability coding stream challenges the assumption that renewable energy is inherently secure by highlighting how climate change directly impairs natural resources. Prolonged El Niño-driven droughts [134] reduce hydropower dam levels to critical status, necessitating a costly return to fossil fuels. In addition, it could result in soil hardening and reduced water absorption when it eventually rains [118], leading to landslides and infrastructure damage. Table 2 further identifies that freshwater scarcity also compromises the chemical balance required for biogas digesters, while intense cyclones destroy the forest biomass [123] used by rural communities for traditional cooking. These resource constraints force a regression to expensive LPG or polluting fuels, increasing both economic strain and ecological vulnerability.

Strategic Integration: To safeguard these resources, the synthesis advocates for a “Whole-of-Island” planning framework as highlighted in [131] and outlined in the Logistics and capacity categories of Table 2. By empowering community technicians through regional “Training Hubs” and ensuring Procedural Justice—where women and youth are active partners in energy governance—PSIDS can support the transition to renewables with a resilient, locally led framework.

4.3. Cross-Cutting Structural Challenges in the Pacific Climate and Energy Security

Beyond the direct physical and demand-side impacts, the Nexus Mapping protocol identifies systemic cross-cutting issues for climate–energy security. These factors often act as the “bottleneck” [135] that prevents resilient energy projects from scaling at the pace required by the climate crisis.

4.3.1. Fiscal Vulnerability and Climate Finance

The synthesis in Table 2 highlights that the Pacific region faces a unique “fiscal trap” where catastrophic GDP losses from cyclones—averaging between 4.3% in Tonga and 6.6% in Vanuatu—drain national budgets. The recovery from such events is often prolonged; for example, Samoa’s 1990–1991 disasters caused damage exceeding US$330 million, only for the region to be struck again by even more destructive events like TC Evan two decades later. This interpretive analysis suggests that the repetitive, high costs of post-disaster reconstruction exhaust the capital needed for the long-term energy transition. Addressing this requires a move toward “de-risking” private investment and securing accessible climate finance that recognises the extreme damage incurred by the Pacific’s electricity and transport sectors.

4.3.2. Capacity and Technical Sovereignty

The mapping in Table 2 identifies a high rate of “brain drain” of local technical talent. The failure of many off-grid solar projects in rural areas between 2020 and 2025 is linked to a lack of local operations and maintenance (O&M) capacity. The historical “fly-in fly-out” model of maintenance has proven unsustainable. To achieve technical sovereignty, the region must pivot toward establishing regional “Training Hubs” that empower community-based technicians, ensuring that systems are maintained locally rather than remaining dependent on foreign aid.

4.3.3. Governance and Customary Land Tenure

The Pacific case is analytically distinctive due to the role of customary land ownership in energy governance. As noted in Table 2, large-scale renewable projects in Fiji and Melanesia frequently face multi-year delays caused by misalignments between modern development needs and traditional landowning units. Resolving these issues may require a governance shift toward formalising “Benefit-Sharing” frameworks and integrating Traditional Ecological Knowledge (TEK) into the earliest phases of project planning to ensure community buy-in and regional order.

4.3.4. Logistics

The geographical reality of the Pacific—spanning 186 million km² of ocean—creates a logistical premium that drives up energy costs. Table 2 shows that Vanuatu and the Solomon Islands have among the highest electricity tariffs and lowest connectivity rates globally due to their vast distances. By adopting the “Whole-of-Island” planning framework proposed in [131], PSIDS can better manage these supply chain vulnerabilities by integrating local energy needs with broader infrastructure and transport planning.

4.3.5. Energy Justice and Gender

Finally, energy security is a matter of social justice. Women in the Pacific bear a disproportionate burden of energy poverty, particularly regarding fuel collection and indoor air pollution, yet they are often excluded from technical and decision-making roles. Synthesis in Table 2 indicates that projects like the FREF are beginning to address this by designing tariff structures for mini-grid energy systems that take gender into consideration [133]. Achieving Procedural Justice—ensuring women and youth are active partners in energy governance—is essential for building a transition that is as socially resilient as it is technically sound.

4.4. Climate Justice Paradox: PSIDS GHG Contribution vs. Vulnerability

The structural challenges discussed in the previous section, particularly the high fiscal burden and logistical premiums, are inextricably linked to the region’s carbon footprint. While the structural barriers make the transition difficult, they also emphasise the cyclical nature of the climate–energy security nexus as established in Figure 4 (Arrow 3).

Referring to the interconnections established in Figure 4, it is interpreted that changing climatic conditions have an adverse impact on the energy systems of PSIDS, fundamentally undermining their energy security. Beyond this vulnerability, the region remains heavily reliant on imported fossil fuels, which further exacerbates the cycle of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and limits countries in meeting their NDC targets.

However, it is critical to note that the actual contribution of PSIDS to global emissions is negligible, accounting for a mere 0.02% of the world’s total [136]. This creates a significant “climate justice” paradox: the nations that contribute the least to global warming are among the most severely impacted by its consequences, as seen from the world risk index for Pacific countries [38], highlighting the urgent need for international support in their transition toward resilient, decarbonised energy systems.

4.5. Energy Systems as a Strategic Tool for Climate Security

PSIDS are natural resource-rich island nations. Solar energy is currently the most widely utilised resource across the Pacific region, with applications ranging from utility-scale solar farms, floating solar photovoltaic systems [137], and decentralised micro-grids to solar thermal systems, such as water heaters [138]. The Wind energy potential depends on the wind regime for different countries. There are several wind energy applications found in the Pacific region, including Fiji, the Federated States of Micronesia, New Caledonia, Samoa, Tonga, and Vanuatu. Hydropower application also depends on geographic elevation, and hydroelectricity is available only in Fiji, French Polynesia, New Caledonia, PNG, Samoa, the Solomon Islands, and Vanuatu [138]. Biomass energy, primarily wood, has been used for traditional cooking on many PSIDS, excluding atolls. Fiji, PNG, and the Solomon Islands are also utilising biomass for electricity generation, while some PSIDS, including Fiji and Tuvalu, also have biogas digesters to meet their cooking energy needs [138]. Some Pacific countries have geothermal resources, and the Pacific Islands have ocean wave/tidal energy potential, but these technologies are not commercially available. However, work is underway to establish a 1 MW Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion power plant in Kiribati [139]. In addition, the Pacific region is currently exploring the role that hydrogen energy could play in securing energy and promoting climate security [124]. The feasibility of using liquid hydrogen for uneconomical maritime transport routes in Fiji has been studied by [140], which forms a precursor for future studies on hydrogen implementation in Fiji’s maritime transport sector and other Pacific countries.

While preceding sections established the profound disparity between the Pacific’s negligible emissions and its extreme climate vulnerability, this section analyses how PSIDS are leveraging their rich natural resource base to build an autonomous security architecture. As synthesised in Table 3, the transition from fossil-fuel dependency toward utility-scale solar, hydro, and emerging hydrogen applications is not merely an environmental goal but a strategic move that mitigates security risks at the human, national, international, and ecological levels.

Decarbonisation is interpreted as a primary defence for Human Security by insulating essential services and marginalised communities from both climatic and economic shocks [141]. For instance, domestic biogas systems provide a dual benefit by eliminating indoor air pollution while simultaneously reducing the labour time traditionally spent by rural women on firewood collection [68]. Similarly, the deployment of Solar and Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) ensures that critical services, such as vaccine storage in health clinics and operational capacity in schools, remain resilient during national grid outages [142].

Ecological Security is fundamentally enhanced through projects like agrivoltaics [143] and floating solar [137,144,145], which optimise land use and reduce evaporation, while the byproduct of biogas systems provides a nutrient-rich “slurry” that replaces imported chemical fertilisers and improves soil resilience [100]. The electrification of the transport sector follows a similar analytical logic of systemic integration. PSIDS are electrifying their transport sector through the introduction of electric vehicles [117] and this can improve urban air quality [146] and reduce noise pollution [147]. By charging EVs with surplus renewable energy [148], the transport sector functions as a dynamic energy storage reservoir, utilising Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) technology to stabilise the grid during high penetration of intermittent generators [149]. However, to ensure that the transition does not merely displace environmental harm [150], a circular economy framework must be integrated into the planning phase. For instance, proper disposal or recycling of solar system’s equipment after it reaches its end-of-life [151] must be considered during the planning phase of such systems.

From a National Security perspective, the transition addresses the massive economic losses [152] and infrastructure vulnerabilities identified in earlier sections. Annualised losses from natural disasters in the Pacific—ranging from 4.3% in Tonga to 6.6% in Vanuatu [125]—far exceed the global average [153], and as synthesised in Table 3, “islanded” microgrids and hydropower baseloads provide the necessary resilience to prevent total blackouts after disasters, thereby reducing repetitive recovery costs. Furthermore, the electrification of the transport sector and energy-efficiency improvements in maritime vessels are critical for Fiji’s archipelagic economy, as they reduce the high costs of inter-island trade and ensure reliable supply chains for remote maritime communities. Internationally, these projects strengthen regional standing and geopolitical leadership; meeting the “Global Methane Pledge” through biogas or achieving IMO shipping targets demonstrates Pacific leadership within the “Blue Pacific Continent Strategy”. Crucially, energy-driven adaptation can also restrain forced climate migration by strengthening the adaptive capacity of people in low-lying atolls, such as Tuvalu and Kiribati, allowing them to maintain their livelihoods and statehood on their own land.

4.6. Geo-Political Tensions and Their Impact on Energy Security

The nexus is further tightened by global geopolitical volatility, which acts as a catalyst for local energy transformation. Recent global conflicts have exposed the extreme vulnerability of the Pacific’s fossil-fuel supply chains, leading to “overnight” demand spikes and hazardous domestic fuel hoarding as communities react to supply uncertainties [154,155]. Pacific leaders echo that the fuel shortages will not just affect fuel supply but disrupts family life, cultural obligations and stretched household budgets [154]. As synthesised in Table 3, the shift toward indigenous resources, ranging from hydropower to Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) storage, is interpreted as a geopolitical necessity that reduces oil dependency and strengthens fiscal autonomy. By replacing fragile, centralised grid architectures with a diverse and locally sourced energy mix, PSIDS may ensure their regional resilience, independent of the volatile transit routes and price shocks of global oil markets. In addition, electrifying the transport sector (land and maritime) would reduce consumption of imported fuels, making it imperative to increase the share of renewable energy in electricity generation.

Table 3. Climate security co-benefits from common current and planned energy projects. [Author’s perspective].

Examples of Project Type	Human Security	Ecological Security	National & Infrastructure Security	International Security
Domestic Biogas systems	Health: Eliminates indoor air pollution from firewood [156]. Gender: Reduces labour time for women in rural areas [68]. Rural: Improves clean cooking energy access in rural areas and marginalised communities.	Soil Resilience: Provides nutrient-rich “slurry” (bio-fertiliser) replacing imported chemicals, improving soil security [157].	Waste Management: Prevents untreated animal waste from polluting local aquifers and coastal reefs [157].	Methane Capture: biogas systems would use animal manure or agricultural waste and thus contribute to meet country’s “Global Methane Pledge” obligations, enhancing diplomatic standing. 13 PSIDS have signed the Global Methane Pledge [158].
Solar + BESS Microgrids	Essential Services: Keeps health clinics (vaccine storage) operational [159] and schools operational during national grid outages [142] and services outer maritime islands which are commonly serviced by diesel generators. Women are empowered and rural population get access to continuous power with option of connecting unlimited load unlike solar home systems.	Water Security: Powers solar pumping for irrigation and desalination, ensuring water access during droughts.	Grid Resilience: “Islanded” systems prevent total blackouts after intense natural disasters, reducing recovery costs.	Energy Sovereignty: Reduces the “Foreign Exchange Drain” caused by importing diesel, strengthening fiscal autonomy.
Hydro Power Projects	Provides stable, base-load power for hospitals and emergency services.	Regulated water flow can support downstream irrigation during dry seasons.	Baseload Resilience: Reduces total reliance on intermittent sources and fuel imports. Hydropower stations can act as storage facilities creating scope for distributed generations such as solar PV.	Demonstrates large-scale RE leadership in the Blue Pacific region.
Electric Vehicles (EVs)	Public Health: Dramatic reduction in urban air pollution and noise in city or urban areas.	Lower transport costs for farmers to bring produce to local markets.	Energy Storage: Potential for “Vehicle-to-Grid” (V2G) to support the grid during peak loads.	Aligns with the Global Electric Mobility Programme [160] and reduces oil-dependency.
Energy Efficiency Improvement in Maritime transport	Remote Access: More efficient vessels ensure reliable supply chains to outer islands.	Protects marine ecosystems from oil spills and reduces coastal water pollution.	Logistics Security: Lowers the high cost of inter-island trade, vital for Fiji’s archipelagic economy.	Contributes to IMO’s global shipping decarbonisation targets [161] and “Blue Pacific Continent Strategy” [162].
Building Efficiency & Conservation	Thermal Comfort: Passive cooling designs reduce heat-stress risk during rising temperatures.	Rooftop water collection in green buildings improves household water security.	Demand Side Management: Reduces the need for costly grid expansions and prevents peak-load blackouts.	Sets a regional benchmark for “Green Building Codes” in pacific island states.
Grid-Connected Solar Projects	Energy Access: Powers urban growth and supports industrial jobs in clean sectors.	Utility-scale solar can be co-located with crops (Agrivoltaics) to maximise land use. Or Floating solar PV can be explored for land-constrained locations.	Diversification: Reduces the risk of “all-in” reliance on hydro which may fail during extreme droughts. Or reduce the dependence on imported volatile fossil fuels.	Accelerates ambitious targets of Pacific region to increase renewable energy share in electricity generation, a key Paris Agreement milestone.

Table 3. Climate security co-benefits from common current and planned energy projects. [Author’s perspective].

Examples of Project Type	Human Security	Ecological Security	National & Infrastructure Security	International Security
Domestic Biogas systems	Health: Eliminates indoor air pollution from firewood [156]. Gender: Reduces labour time for women in rural areas [68]. Rural: Improves clean cooking energy access in rural areas and marginalised communities.	Soil Resilience: Provides nutrient-rich “slurry” (bio-fertiliser) replacing imported chemicals, improving soil security [157].	Waste Management: Prevents untreated animal waste from polluting local aquifers and coastal reefs [157].	Methane Capture: biogas systems would use animal manure or agricultural waste and thus contribute to meet country’s “Global Methane Pledge” obligations, enhancing diplomatic standing. 13 PSIDS have signed the Global Methane Pledge [158].
Solar + BESS Microgrids	Essential Services: Keeps health clinics (vaccine storage) operational [159] and schools operational during national grid outages [142] and services outer maritime islands which are commonly serviced by diesel generators. Women are empowered and rural population get access to continuous power with option of connecting unlimited load unlike solar home systems.	Water Security: Powers solar pumping for irrigation and desalination, ensuring water access during droughts.	Grid Resilience: “Islanded” systems prevent total blackouts after intense natural disasters, reducing recovery costs.	Energy Sovereignty: Reduces the “Foreign Exchange Drain” caused by importing diesel, strengthening fiscal autonomy.
Hydro Power Projects	Provides stable, base-load power for hospitals and emergency services.	Regulated water flow can support downstream irrigation during dry seasons.	Baseload Resilience: Reduces total reliance on intermittent sources and fuel imports. Hydropower stations can act as storage facilities creating scope for distributed generations such as solar PV.	Demonstrates large-scale RE leadership in the Blue Pacific region.
Electric Vehicles (EVs)	Public Health: Dramatic reduction in urban air pollution and noise in city or urban areas.	Lower transport costs for farmers to bring produce to local markets.	Energy Storage: Potential for “Vehicle-to-Grid” (V2G) to support the grid during peak loads.	Aligns with the Global Electric Mobility Programme [160] and reduces oil-dependency.
Energy Efficiency Improvement in Maritime transport	Remote Access: More efficient vessels ensure reliable supply chains to outer islands.	Protects marine ecosystems from oil spills and reduces coastal water pollution.	Logistics Security: Lowers the high cost of inter-island trade, vital for Fiji’s archipelagic economy.	Contributes to IMO’s global shipping decarbonisation targets [161] and “Blue Pacific Continent Strategy” [162].
Building Efficiency & Conservation	Thermal Comfort: Passive cooling designs reduce heat-stress risk during rising temperatures.	Rooftop water collection in green buildings improves household water security.	Demand Side Management: Reduces the need for costly grid expansions and prevents peak-load blackouts.	Sets a regional benchmark for “Green Building Codes” in pacific island states.
Grid-Connected Solar Projects	Energy Access: Powers urban growth and supports industrial jobs in clean sectors.	Utility-scale solar can be co-located with crops (Agrivoltaics) to maximise land use. Or Floating solar PV can be explored for land-constrained locations.	Diversification: Reduces the risk of “all-in” reliance on hydro which may fail during extreme droughts. Or reduce the dependence on imported volatile fossil fuels.	Accelerates ambitious targets of Pacific region to increase renewable energy share in electricity generation, a key Paris Agreement milestone.

5. Discussions and Policy Instruments

The qualitative synthesis conducted in this study suggests that achieving energy security in the Pacific is not merely a matter of technological substitution but a systemic challenge that requires the simultaneous mitigation of climatic, fiscal, and logistical stressors. The “Nexus Mapping” analysis in Section 4 identified that vulnerabilities in the energy sector are both a product of, and a contributor to, climate insecurity. Therefore, the following discussion evaluates specific indicators and policy “instruments” (regulatory, economic, and social), proposed by the author, through the lens of their ability to foster a resilient, decarbonised, and sovereign energy future for PSIDS.

5.1. Evaluating Resilience Through Climate–Energy Security Indicators

To move beyond traditional energy reporting, the author proposes three strategic indicators, given in

Table 4. Strategic indicators for climate–energy security. [Author’s perspective].

Indicator Name	Definition	Nexus Significance
Energy Autonomy Index	Ratio of domestic RE production to total energy consumption.	Directly measures the reduction in exposure to global oil price shocks and supply chain disruptions.
Policy Mix Integration Score	Number of national policies co-locating energy with climate adaptation (e.g., agriphotovoltaics).	Analytically identifies how limited land and freshwater resources are optimised to solve energy and food security simultaneously.
Climate–Energy Finance Ratio	Percentage of climate finance for decentralised, resilient energy systems vs. fossil-fuel upgrades.	Measures the shift toward long-term stability by prioritising “islanded” community resilience over fragile centralised grids.

, that measure the maturity of the climate–energy security nexus. These indicators are intended to shift the focus from simple capacity installed to the quality of the transition.

The application of these metrics may facilitate a move toward Nexus Maturity, where energy planning is evaluated by its potential contribution to regional security rather than solely by utility expansion. By utilising the Energy Autonomy Index, PSIDS can potentially quantify their mitigation of the “logistical premium” associated with fossil fuel use, effectively turning domestic renewable resources into a strategic buffer against geopolitical volatility. Furthermore, a high Policy Mix Integration Score suggests a move away from “siloed” governance, potentially helping ensure that land-neutral technologies such as floating solar or agrivoltaics protect both energy sovereignty and the ecological security of limited island territories. Finally, the Climate–Energy Finance Ratio serves as a metric for accountability in international aid, prioritising deep, systemic shifts toward decentralised microgrids that are essential for maintaining Human Security during intense tropical cyclones predicted for the region. Together, these metrics would provide the analytical evidence required to shift the global narrative from viewing the Pacific as a site of climate vulnerability to viewing it as a benchmark for integrated security resilience.

5.2. Author Recommendations: Policy Instruments for Enhanced Security

To facilitate a secure energy transition and break the systemic “bottlenecks” while maintaining climate security in PSIDS, the author recommends three key policy instruments (economic “carrots”, regulatory “sticks”, and informational “sermons” [163]) outlined in Figure 4 and

Table 5. Policy instruments, specific mechanisms, and strategic outcomes. [Author’s perspective].

Instrument Category	Specific Mechanism	Target Nexus Vulnerability	Strategic Security Outcome
Regulatory (The ‘Sticks’)	Technical Standards & Import Codes	High failure rates of RE hardware due to humidity/salinity.	National Security: Fiscal defence by preventing premature equipment loss.
	Mandatory Disclosure Laws	Opaque national disaggregated energy data.	Infrastructure Security: Facilitates energy planning, demand-side management, grid stabilisation, and diverse supply.
Economic (The ‘Carrots’)	Sovereign Green Bonds	“Fiscal Trap” and exhaustion of capital after disasters.	International Security: Improves green verification standards and attracts private capital.
	Blended Finance & De-risking	High perceived risk for private investors in small SIDS markets.	Human Security: Reorients finance toward social inclusion and community resilience.
Social (The ‘Sermons’)	Climate–Energy Training Hubs	Skilled migration (“Brain Drain”) and lack of local O&M.	Technical Sovereignty: Ends “fly-in fly-out” models; empowers community technicians.
	Formalised Land Tenure Roles	Multi-year delays in RE projects due to customary land disputes.	National Security: Achieves community buy-in and maintains regional order.

, which are essential for adopting renewable energy and enhancing energy efficiency.

5.2.1. Regulatory Instruments (The ‘Sticks’)

The author identifies the establishment of robust standards for the importation and installation of renewable energy, energy efficiency technologies and e-transport as a priority for regulatory reform, so that poor quality products are not imported into the country and then installed, thus reducing the life of the RE system, as noted by [164,165]. These “sticks” potentially can function as a fiscal defence mechanism by ensuring that equipment is engineered for specific Pacific conditions, such as high salinity and humidity. This in turn ensures that governments prevent the premature failure of systems that represent a significant loss of climate finance. In addition, for electricity sales, effective tariff regulation is recommended to incentivise utilities to reduce costs and improve efficiency, based on relevant benchmarking and rate-of-return indicators [166]. Furthermore, mandatory disclosure laws and updated grid resilience codes are recommended to provide the transparency required for demand-side management, enabling utilities to stabilise the grid against the intermittency associated with high levels of renewable penetration while informing more integrated national planning.

5.2.2. Economic and Financial Instruments (The ‘Carrots’)

Given the “Fiscal Trap” identified in Section 4, the author recommends utilising economic instruments to “de-risk” private investment and reorient the financial system toward long-term green growth. While donor aid remains crucial, Table 5 highlights that mechanisms such as Sovereign Green Bonds [167] and Blended Finance [168] are essential for bridging the finance gap and attracting private capital. These “carrots” are linked to regulatory “sticks”; for instance, the success of green bond debuts in countries like Fiji is contingent upon the quality of green verification standards and mandatory reporting, which provide the market certainty needed to sustain private sustainable bond markets. By embedding social inclusion and equity criteria into these financial products [169], PSIDS can ensure that climate finance delivers tangible Human Security benefits to the most vulnerable communities.

5.2.3. Information and Social Instruments (The ‘Sermons’)

To address skilled labour migration [170] and the unsustainable “fly-in fly-out” maintenance model, the author argues for prioritising institutional and community-based capacity-building and awareness-creation. The author recommends, as shown in Table 5, that the establishment of Climate–Energy Training Hubs and centralised energy data centres serves as the informational backbone of the transition, providing the evidence-based data needed for effective decision-making and technical sovereignty. Furthermore, formalising the role of local land-owning units through Benefit-Sharing frameworks can act as a vital social instrument to ensure community buy-in from a project’s inception. This could reduce the multi-year delays typically associated with customary land disputes, thereby accelerating the deployment of renewable energy while maintaining regional order and international security.

6. Conclusions

Despite contributing less than 0.03% to global greenhouse gas emissions, the Pacific Small Island Developing States face disproportionate climate impacts that threaten cultural heritage, agriculture, life below water and maritime rights. This integrative thematic review suggests that for the Pacific region, transitioning the energy sector away from volatile imported fossil fuels is a strategic security imperative rather than merely a technical goal. By applying a Nexus Mapping framework, this study has identified potential non-linear causal pathways through which climate stressors can undermine regional energy security.

The synthesis of the literature indicates that the energy infrastructure sector faces significant challenges due to heightened cyclonic activity, rising sea levels, and altered temperature patterns. For instance, the annualised asset losses from natural disasters (6.6% in Vanuatu and 4.3% in Tonga) illustrate a “fiscal trap” that may drain national budgets and exhaust the capital required for long-term energy transformation. This vulnerability extends to the critical transport sector, where climate-induced damage to roads, bridges and jetties creates severe logistical bottlenecks for land and maritime transport. Simultaneously, rising mean temperatures can potentially create a “Demand-Utility Paradox,” in which increased electricity demand for cooling could put utilities under pressure to deploy carbon-intensive fossil-fuel generation to compensate for limited renewable capacity. These stressors do not exist in isolation; they are linked to broader Human Security threats, including sea-level rise and the loss of agricultural land, which drive migration and challenge the cultural identity of Pacific communities.

This study argues that by strengthening energy security, that is, having resilient energy infrastructure, diversified energy sources, distributed renewable energy generation systems, improving energy efficiency and access to affordable energy, climate security can be driven. By potentially enhancing energy autonomy and efficiency, PSIDS could simultaneously mitigate carbon emissions and adapt to climatic shocks, thereby safeguarding human, national, international and ecological security. Achieving this integrated security necessitates a strategic “Policy Mix” that combines regulatory standards (sticks), economic de-risking mechanisms (carrots), and informational capacity-building (sermons).

Ultimately, the interpretive synthesis suggests that achieving integrated security in the Pacific requires aligning policy instruments with the region’s unique geopolitical and legal realities. Unlike other SIDS regions, the Pacific case is analytically distinctive due to the Boe Declaration, which recognises that regional security is inseparable from climate change, environmental protection and Human Security. Furthermore, the existential legal threats to maritime baselines suggest a need for Pacific-led energy sovereignty strategies. By treating decentralised renewables as strategic tools for regional stability and by formalising customary land tenure to foster technical sovereignty, the region may transition from being perceived as passive victims of climate change to proactive leaders in sustainable energy. In this mature nexus, resilient energy systems could serve as a strategic shield against climatic uncertainty, supporting the continued prosperity and security of island nations.