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1 July 2026

27 Pages

Dynamic Hedging Under Stochastic Volatility and Model Uncertainty: PDE Characterization and Regime-Based Evidence

,
and
1
Department of Finance, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, 010374 Bucharest, Romania
2
Department of Marketing, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, 010374 Bucharest, Romania
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
†
These authors contributed equally to this work.

Abstract

We study dynamic hedging in an incomplete market where the underlying asset follows a stochastic-volatility process and the hedger trades only the stock and the money-market account. The hedging problem is formulated as a multi-stage stochastic control problem with a quadratic terminal-loss objective and is solved through a Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman framework. For the Heston model, the resulting mean-variance hedge specializes to the Galtchouk–Kunita–Watanabe projection and can be written as the sum of the spot delta and a volatility-risk correction term. We emphasize that this representation is used in the paper as an implementation theorem for our setting, rather than as a new general result. On the numerical side, we compare a finite-difference alternating-direction implicit solver with a Deep Galerkin Method, providing full implementation details for both. The finite-difference solver is the preferred method for the two-state Heston problem because it is faster and more accurate on low-dimensional grids, whereas the neural solver becomes attractive only for higher-dimensional extensions where mesh-based methods become computationally burdensome. In backtests across major S&P 500 market regimes from 2006 to 2022, the stochastic-volatility-aware hedge modestly improves on Black–Scholes hedging during stress episodes, while differences are negligible in calm markets. Across the reported experiments, the PDE-optimal mean-variance hedge is numerically indistinguishable from the recalibrated Heston hedge, indicating that the main value of the framework is theoretical unification and implementation guidance rather than a materially different trading rule in the tested setting. Fixed worst-case robust hedging is overly conservative in the historical sample, although adaptive robustness remains a promising conceptual extension. The main contribution of the paper is therefore a rigorous and implementable unification of multi-stage PDE optimization with stochastic-volatility-aware hedging, together with evidence that the economic value of model sophistication is concentrated in stressed markets.

1. Introduction

1.1. Background and Motivation

Dynamic hedging, the practice of continuously adjusting a portfolio to offset derivative risks, forms the cornerstone of modern derivatives trading. The theoretical foundation established by Black and Scholes [1] demonstrates that under idealized assumptions—constant volatility, frictionless markets, and continuous rebalancing—a European option can be perfectly replicated by trading the underlying asset and a risk-free bond, yielding the celebrated Black–Scholes partial differential equation (PDE) and the instantaneous hedging ratio (delta). Merton [2] extended this framework to incorporate dividends and early-exercise features, establishing the analytical foundations upon which the derivatives industry was built.
However, real financial markets exhibit stochastic volatility, jumps, transaction costs, and liquidity constraints that violate these assumptions. When volatility is random or model parameters are uncertain, markets become incomplete: perfect replication is no longer achievable with a single traded asset [3]. Incomplete markets introduce residual risk that cannot be eliminated, necessitating more sophisticated approaches to risk management. The concept of market incompleteness was formalized by Harrison and Kreps [4] and further developed by Föllmer and Sondermann [5], who introduced the notion of risk-minimizing strategies.
The core challenge in dynamic hedging under uncertainty is that the classic delta-hedging strategy—optimal for log-normal models with known constant volatility—may perform poorly when actual dynamics differ from the model. Under stochastic volatility models such as Heston’s model [6], two sources of uncertainty exist (asset price and volatility), but only the underlying is traded. Hedging with only the underlying leaves unhedgeable volatility risk, causing nonzero hedging errors and P&L variance [7]. Moreover, unknown or uncertain model parameters can cause strategies calibrated to incorrect assumptions to mis-hedge, with particularly severe consequences in stressed markets.
These concerns have motivated robust hedging frameworks, such as the uncertain volatility model (UVM) of Avellaneda, Levy, and Paras [8], which treats volatility as lying within a band of possible values and seeks strategies performing well in worst-case scenarios. Lyons [9] developed a similar framework for uncertain volatility, while Romualdi [10] analyzed its implications for option pricing. While robust approaches reduce model risk, they tend to produce conservative, expensive hedges. Schröter and Monoyios [11] investigated the cost of model uncertainty in hedging and found that worst-case strategies can be prohibitively expensive under normal market conditions. Fouque and Ning [12] extended uncertain volatility models to incorporate stochastic bounds, providing a more flexible robust hedging framework. Alternative stochastic volatility models—Hull and White [13], Stein and Stein [14], and Heston [6]—introduce additional state variables for volatility, allowing richer dynamics that better fit market option prices. The SABR model of Hagan et al. [15] further extends this framework by incorporating a CEV-type asset price dynamics with stochastic volatility, becoming an industry standard for interest rate derivatives.
However, hedging in these models is complex: market incompleteness implies no unique “correct” strategy, requiring criteria such as minimum-variance hedging or mean-variance trade-offs to derive optimal policies [16]. Duffie and Richardson [17] provided one of the first analyses of mean-variance hedging in incomplete markets, establishing the theoretical foundations for our approach. The dynamic hedging problem over an option’s life can be formulated as a multi-stage stochastic optimization or stochastic control problem [18]. Rather than focusing only on instantaneous hedges, one considers the entire sequence of rebalancing decisions with the objective of minimizing cumulative hedging error or cost. In continuous time, this naturally frames as a Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) PDE problem: a value function representing minimal possible risk from a given state satisfies a nonlinear PDE backward in time [19]. Solving the HJB PDE yields the optimal feedback control (hedging strategy) as a function of current state. This approach connects the rich literature on stochastic control, initiated by Merton’s portfolio problem [20], to practical hedging applications.
The contribution of this paper is therefore not that a numerically optimized hedge delivers a systematically different trading rule from a well-calibrated stochastic-volatility hedge in the tested Heston setting. Rather, the contribution is to show how a multi-stage stochastic-control and PDE formulation leads back to that hedge in a mathematically transparent way, how the resulting hedge can be computed with standard PDE machinery, and how its empirical value depends strongly on market regime. In the reported backtests, the practical improvement over Black–Scholes hedging is small in calm periods and more noticeable during stress, while the fixed robust strategy is too conservative for the historical sample. These findings are consistent with the broader literature on hedging under incomplete information [3,5,16].

1.2. Literature Review

1.2.1. Classical Foundations

The Black–Scholes–Merton framework [1,2] provides the benchmark for perfect replication under idealized conditions. When markets are incomplete, the concept of risk-neutral pricing must be extended. Harrison and Pliska [21] established the fundamental theorem of asset pricing, showing that the absence of arbitrage is equivalent to the existence of an equivalent martingale measure. In incomplete markets, this measure is not unique, leading to a range of possible prices. Föllmer and Schweizer [3] introduced the minimal martingale measure, which minimizes the relative entropy distance to the physical measure and is closely related to local risk-minimization. Delbaen et al. [22] analyzed variance-optimal martingale measures, providing the theoretical foundations for mean-variance hedging in general semimartingale models.
The Galtchouk–Kunita–Watanabe (GKW) decomposition [23,24] provides the fundamental representation of square-integrable martingales in terms of a tradable asset and an orthogonal component, forming the basis for optimal hedging in incomplete markets. Schweizer [16] provided a comprehensive survey of quadratic hedging approaches, establishing the connections between local risk-minimization, variance-optimal hedging, and mean-variance optimization. Biagini, Cretarola, and Platen [25] connected mean-variance hedging to benchmark approaches, providing alternative perspectives on optimal hedging. Pham [26] and Cûperlier and Vandewalle [27] provide rigorous treatments of the measure-theoretic foundations, distinguishing carefully between hedging criteria defined under the physical measure  P and pricing functionals defined under equivalent martingale measures  Q .

1.2.2. Robust Hedging Under Model Uncertainty

The robust hedging literature addresses model misspecification by formulating hedging problems that account for parameter uncertainty. Avellaneda, Levy, and Paras [8] introduced the uncertain volatility model, where volatility is assumed to lie within a bounded interval and the hedger seeks a strategy that performs well in the worst case. Lyons [9] developed a similar framework independently. Denis and Martini [28] extended the uncertain volatility framework to path-dependent options using capacity theory.
Schröter and Monoyios [11] investigated the cost of model uncertainty in hedging, finding that worst-case strategies can be prohibitively expensive under normal market conditions. Hansen and Sargent [29] developed a framework for robust control in economics, emphasizing that worst-case optimization may lead to overly conservative decisions. This critique motivated the development of less conservative robust approaches. Fouque and Ning [12] extended uncertain volatility models to incorporate stochastic bounds, allowing the uncertainty set to adapt to market conditions. Lütkebohmert, Schmidt, and Sester [30] proposed robust deep hedging, combining neural networks with adversarial training. Park [31] developed a robust deep hedging framework for equity-linked securities under covariance uncertainty. From a game-theoretic perspective, the robust hedging problem can be viewed as a two-player zero-sum game between the hedger (minimizing risk) and nature (choosing the worst-case model parameters). This formulation leads to the Hamilton–Jacobi–Isaacs (HJI) equations [32], which generalize the HJB framework to minimax problems. Fleming and Souganidis [33] established the connection between stochastic differential games and viscosity solutions, providing the theoretical foundations for our robust hedging analysis.

1.2.3. Computational Methods

Scenario-based multistage stochastic programming [18,34] discretizes the probability space of possible underlying price paths into a recombining tree or scenario lattice. While conceptually straightforward, the curse of dimensionality is severe. Edirisinghe, Naik, and Uppal [35] studied optimal replication with transaction costs and trading restrictions. Bertsimas, Kogan, and Lo [36] presented a dynamic-programming-based hedging approach in an incomplete market.
For PDE-based methods, the alternating direction implicit (ADI) schemes developed by Craig and Sneyd [37], Hundsdorfer and Verwer [38], and in ’t Hout and Foulon [39] provide efficient numerical solutions for multi-dimensional convection–diffusion equations. Gatheral [40] provided a comprehensive treatment of numerical methods for stochastic volatility models. Lord, Koekkoek, and van Dijk [41] compared various discretization schemes for the Heston model, finding that the Quadratic Exponential scheme offers the best combination of speed and accuracy for Monte Carlo simulation.
Recent advances in machine learning have led to physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) for solving PDEs. Raissi, Perdikaris, and Karniadakis [42] introduced physics-informed neural networks. Sirignano and Spiliopoulos [43] developed the DGM (Deep Galerkin Method), which we employ in our comparison. Han, Jentzen, and E [44] demonstrated that deep learning can solve high-dimensional PDEs. De Ryck and Mishra [45] established rigorous error bounds for PINNs. Beck et al. [46] analyzed the convergence properties of deep learning methods for parabolic PDEs.

1.2.4. Data-Driven Approaches and Deep Hedging

Buehler et al. [47] introduced the deep hedging framework, using deep neural networks to approximate the hedging policy in an incomplete market. Cao, Chen, Hull, and Poulos [48] applied reinforcement learning to deep hedging. Huang and Lawryshyn [49] report that RL-based hedging agents achieved about a 67% reduction in expected hedging loss relative to delta hedging in illiquid markets. A downside of deep hedging is that these models can be black-box and lack the interpretability and convergence guarantees of PDE-based methods [31]. Our multi-stage PDE optimization framework addresses this gap by providing a principled, interpretable optimal control solution via the HJB equation, rigorous convergence guarantees, and a natural decomposition of the optimal hedge into interpretable components.

1.3. Main Contributions

1.3.1. Theoretical Contributions

Our theoretical contribution is best understood as a rigorous synthesis rather than as the discovery of an entirely new hedge formula. First, we show how the mean-variance hedging problem in the Heston model can be written in feedback form and linked to the Galtchouk–Kunita–Watanabe decomposition, yielding a hedge equal to the spot delta plus a correlation-mediated volatility-risk adjustment. This makes explicit, within a stochastic-control framework, why the familiar stochastic-volatility-aware hedge arises in incomplete markets. Second, we formulate a verification theorem (Theorem 4) that clarifies the assumptions under which the HJB representation is consistent with the value function for the mean-variance hedging problem, distinguishing carefully between local risk-minimization, terminal mean-variance optimization, and the GKW projection. Third, we formulate the robust hedging problem as a minimax control problem and describe the associated Hamilton–Jacobi–Isaacs framework in viscosity-solution terms. For the full parameter-uncertainty problem, our emphasis is on the structural formulation and its numerical approximation rather than on a closed-form robust hedge.

1.3.2. Methodological Contributions

  • Rigorous convergence analysis comparing ADI finite-difference schemes with the Deep Galerkin Method, with full implementation specifications including grid construction, boundary treatment, network architecture, and complexity benchmarking across dimensions (Section 4), extending the results of in ’t Hout and Foulon [39] and De Ryck and Mishra [45].
  • Sobol sensitivity analysis identifying which Heston parameters most affect hedging performance (Section 5.2), extending the framework of Saltelli et al. [50] to hedging problems.
  • Singular stochastic control formulation for transaction costs, characterizing no-trade regions via variational inequalities (Section 6.5), building on Davis, Panas, and Zariphopoulou [51] and Leland [52].

1.3.3. Empirical Contributions

  • Comprehensive backtesting on S&P 500 data (2006–2022) across four distinct market regimes, with a fully specified reproducible empirical protocol (Section 6), offering regime-specific insights absent from the existing literature.
  • Quantification of cost–risk trade-offs with realistic transaction costs (1 bp to 25 bp per dollar traded), providing practical guidance (Section 6.5), extending the transaction cost analysis of Almgren and Chriss [53] and Gatheral [40].
  • Demonstration that model-aware hedging provides insurance value primarily during systemic stress (5–8% tail-loss reduction) with modest gains in normal markets (0.2–1% variance reduction), together with bootstrap confidence intervals for all performance differences.

2. Methodology

2.1. Model Setup and Formal Definitions

We begin by establishing the probabilistic framework and market model. Let ( Ω , F , { F t } t ∈ [ 0 , T ] , Q ) be a complete filtered probability space satisfying the usual conditions, where Q denotes the risk-neutral pricing measure. The constant risk-free rate is denoted by r ≥ 0 , with the money market account evolving as d B t = r B t d t , B 0 = 1 . This framework follows the standard setting of Karatzas and Shreve [54] for continuous-time finance. The financial market consists of a risky underlying asset with price process ( S t ) t ∈ [ 0 , T ] and a European-style derivative with maturity T and payoff f ( S T ) .
To capture volatility uncertainty, we employ a stochastic volatility framework where the instantaneous variance V t follows a mean-reverting diffusion. Under Q , the joint dynamics are:
d S t = r S t d t + V t S t d W t S ,
d V t = μ V ( t , V t ) d t + σ V ( t , V t ) d W t V ,
where W t S and W t V are correlated Brownian motions satisfying E Q [ d W t S d W t V ] = ρ d t . In the Heston model, μ V ( V t ) = κ ( θ − V t ) and σ V ( V t ) = η V t , where κ > 0 is the mean-reversion speed, θ > 0 is the long-run variance, and η > 0 is the volatility of volatility. Notation: Throughout the paper, η denotes the volatility-of-volatility parameter, while σ min and σ max denote robust-hedging volatility bounds (Section 5). Dividends are assumed zero ( q = 0 ) for the baseline model; dividend yields are reintroduced only in the empirical calibration where they are backed out from put–call parity.
A sufficient condition ensuring strict positivity of the variance process (the Feller condition) is 2 κ θ ≥ η 2 , which guarantees that the boundary v = 0 is non-attracting for the associated CIR diffusion. As noted by Andersen [55] and Lord et al. [41], the Feller condition is often violated in practice when calibrated to market data, requiring careful numerical treatment detailed in Appendix A.

2.2. Admissible Strategies and Self-Financing Portfolios

The hedger dynamically trades the underlying asset S t . Let Δ = ( Δ t ) t ∈ [ 0 , T ] denote the number of shares held, modeled as a Markov feedback control Δ t = δ ( t , S t , V t ) . The set of admissible strategies is defined as
A = Δ ∣ Δ is F - predictable and E Q ∫ 0 T Δ t 2 S t 2 V t d t < ∞ .
For Δ ∈ A , the self-financing portfolio value Π t Δ satisfies
d Π t Δ = Δ t d S t + r Π t Δ − Δ t S t d t , Π 0 Δ = π 0 .
In discounted units Π ˜ t = e − r t Π t Δ and S ˜ t = e − r t S t , this simplifies to d Π ˜ t = Δ t d S ˜ t . The terminal hedging error is E T Δ = Π T Δ − f ( S T ) , or in discounted terms E ˜ T Δ = Π ˜ T − e − r T f ( S T ) .

2.3. The Quadratic Hedging Problem

We formulate hedging as a mean-variance optimization problem under the physical measure  P :
inf Δ ∈ A E P ( E T Δ ) 2 ⟺ inf Δ ∈ A E P ( E ˜ T Δ ) 2 .
Since variance risk is not directly tradable, the market is incomplete and perfect replication is generally impossible.
Measure-theoretic clarification: The optimization criterion (5) is defined under the physical (objective) measure  P , while option pricing and the pricing PDE (Section 2.6) are defined under the risk-neutral measure  Q . The GKW decomposition (Section 2.5) is performed under  Q , and the equivalence between the P -optimal mean-variance hedge and the Q -GKW projection holds when the mean-variance trade-off process is deterministic (Schweizer [16] (Theorem 4.6)). For practical implementation, we discretize time: 0 = t 0 < t 1 < ⋯ < t N = T , and restrict strategies to be piecewise constant: Δ t = Δ n for t ∈ [ t n , t n + 1 ) . This yields a multi-stage stochastic control problem with state ( S t n , V t n , Π t n ) .

2.4. Dynamic Programming and the HJB Equation

Define the value function:
U ( t , s , v , π ) = inf Δ ∈ A E P Π T Δ − f ( S T ) 2 ∣ S t = s , V t = v , Π t = π .
The terminal condition is U ( T , s , v , π ) = ( π − f ( s ) ) 2 . Under regularity conditions (specified in Theorem 4), U satisfies the HJB equation:
0 = U t + ( r − q ) s U s + κ ( θ − v ) U v + r π U π + 1 2 s 2 v U s s + ρ η s v U s v + 1 2 η 2 v U v v + inf Δ ∈ R Δ s 2 v U s π + ρ η Δ s v U v π + 1 2 Δ 2 s 2 v U π π .
The optimal control is
Δ t * = − U s π + ρ η s − 1 U v π U π π .

2.5. GKW Decomposition

An alternative characterization employs the GKW decomposition. Let H ˜ = e − r T f ( S T ) . Then, there exists a unique decomposition:
H ˜ = E Q [ H ˜ ] + ∫ 0 T Δ t GKW d S ˜ t + L T ,
where L T is a square-integrable martingale orthogonal to S ˜ (i.e., ⟨ L , S ˜ ⟩ T = 0 ). The minimal achievable L 2 hedging error equals the orthogonal component:
inf Δ ∈ A E Q ( E T Δ ) 2 = E Q L T 2 .

2.6. Pricing PDE and Optimal Hedge

The pricing function C ( t , s , v ) satisfies:
0 = C t + ( r − q ) s C s + κ ( θ − v ) C v + 1 2 s 2 v C s s + ρ η s v C s v + 1 2 η 2 v C v v − r C .
The optimal hedge is:
Δ t GKW = C s + ρ η s C v .
The first term C s represents the standard spot delta, while the second term provides a correlation-mediated volatility-risk correction. This decomposition reveals how stochastic volatility induces a hedge adjustment proportional to the correlation  ρ and vol-of-vol  η .

2.7. Measure-Theoretic Clarification

We now clarify the relationship between the P -optimal mean-variance hedge and the Q -GKW decomposition, which is essential for interpreting the empirical results. The distinction matters because historical hedging performance is naturally a P -measure object, while option pricing and the GKW decomposition are defined under  Q .
Local risk-minimization (Föllmer and Sondermann [5]) minimizes the instantaneous variance of the cost process under  P . Terminal mean-variance hedging (Duffie and Richardson [17]) minimizes the terminal squared error E P [ ( E T ) 2 ] . The GKW projection is defined under  Q and yields the optimal hedge when the claim is valued under  Q . Variance-optimal hedging (Schweizer [16]) minimizes E P [ ( E T ) 2 ] over all self-financing strategies and is generally different from the GKW hedge unless the mean-variance trade-off process is deterministic.
In our setting, we follow the standard practice (e.g., Hull and White [13]; Gatheral [40]) of computing the hedge ratio Δ t GKW from the Q -pricing PDE and evaluating its performance on P -measure historical paths. This is justified when the drift adjustment between P and Q is small relative to the diffusion terms, which is the case for daily hedging horizons with typical equity risk premia. We state this explicitly in the empirical protocol (Section 6.1).

3. Theoretical Results

3.1. Two-Layer Theory: Classical and Viscosity Solutions

We present a two-layer theoretical framework that separates the clean analytical results on a truncated domain from the practical numerical treatment of the degenerate Heston PDE.
Theorem 1
(Classical Solutions on Truncated Domain). Let D = [ 0 , T ) × [ s min , s max ] × [ v min , v max ] with 0 < s min < s max < ∞ and 0 < v min < v max < ∞ . Assume the truncated Heston coefficients are Hölder continuous, the terminal payoff belongs to C 2 + α , and compatible boundary conditions are imposed on ∂ D (specified in Appendix A). Then, the truncated pricing problem admits a unique classical solution C ∈ C 1 , 2 , 2 ( D ) ∩ C ( D ¯ ) .
Proof. 
On the truncated domain, the operator is uniformly parabolic since v ≥ v min > 0 . Standard parabolic theory (Ladyzhenskaya, Solonnikov, and Ural’tseva [56] (Chapter IV, Theorem 5.1)) yields existence, uniqueness, and Schauder regularity. The Hölder continuity of coefficients and C 2 + α terminal data ensure that the solution attains the stated regularity up to the boundary when compatible boundary conditions are imposed.    □
For the full half-plane v ≥ 0 , the Heston operator is boundary-degenerate at v = 0 . In that setting, the appropriate theory is the degenerate-parabolic or viscosity framework rather than a blanket full-domain classical-solution claim.
Our numerical implementation works on the truncated domain (Theorem 1), which is sufficient for the computational results. However, for theoretical completeness:
Theorem 2
(Viscosity Solutions on the Full Domain). Let D ¯ = [ 0 , T ] × R + × R + . For terminal payoff f ∈ C pol ( R + ) , the pricing PDE (11) admits a unique continuous viscosity solution C ∈ C ( D ¯ ) that satisfies a polynomial growth condition | C ( t , s , v ) | ≤ K ( 1 + s p + v p ) for some K , p > 0 .
Proof sketch. 
The Heston operator satisfies the structural conditions of Crandall, Evans, and Lions [57] for degenerate parabolic equations. The comparison principle holds under the polynomial growth condition (Achdou and Tchou [58]). Existence follows from Perron’s method, and uniqueness from the comparison principle.    □
Theorem 3
(Value Function Regularity). The value function U defined in Equation (6) is continuous on [ 0 , T ] × R + × R + × R , locally Hölder continuous in ( t , s , v , π ) , and satisfies a polynomial growth condition | U ( t , s , v , π ) | ≤ K ( 1 + | π | 2 + s p ) for some constants K , p > 0 .
Proof. 
The coefficients of the SDE system (1)–(2) are locally Lipschitz continuous and satisfy linear growth conditions. Stochastic flow techniques (Kunita [59]; Protter [60]) establish that the solution map ( s , v ) ↦ ( S T s , v , V T s , v ) is continuously differentiable. The polynomial growth of f combined with standard moment estimates for the Heston model yields the stated regularity of the value function. Local Hölder continuity follows from the uniform parabolicity of the generator on the truncated domain (Theorem 1).    □

3.2. Characterization of Optimal Strategy

Theorem 4
(Optimal Strategy Characterization). Assume the conditions of Theorem 1 hold on the computational domain. Let the option price C ( t , s , v ) be the classical solution of the pricing PDE (11), and let M t H = E Q [ f ( S T ) ∣ F t ] be the martingale representation of the claim. Then, the optimal hedging strategy under the Heston model satisfies:
Δ t * = d ⟨ M H , S ⟩ t d ⟨ S ⟩ t = ∂ C ∂ s + ρ η s ∂ C ∂ v .
Proof. 
The first equality follows from the Galtchouk–Kunita–Watanabe projection formula (Schweizer [16] (Theorem 3.4)), which characterizes the optimal hedge as the Radon–Nikodým derivative of the covariation between the claim martingale and the underlying price process. For the Heston model, we apply Itô’s lemma to C ( t , S t , V t ) :
d C = C t + L C d t + ∂ C ∂ s d S t + ∂ C ∂ v d V t + second - order terms ,
where L denotes the Heston generator. Since C satisfies the pricing PDE (11), the drift term vanishes, leaving:
d C t mart = ∂ C ∂ s d S t + η V t ∂ C ∂ v d W t V .
Substituting d W t V = ρ d W t S + 1 − ρ 2 d W t ⊥ , we obtain:
d C t mart = ∂ C ∂ s + ρ η S t ∂ C ∂ v d S t + 1 − ρ 2 η V t ∂ C ∂ v d W t ⊥ .
The second term is orthogonal to S, hence d ⟨ C , S ⟩ t / d ⟨ S ⟩ t = C s + ρ η s − 1 C v . The residual risk is captured by the orthogonal martingale:
L t = 1 − ρ 2 ∫ 0 t η V u ∂ C ∂ v d W u ⊥ .
   □
Implementation Theorem. 
We emphasize that Theorem 4 is an implementation theorem for our setting: it shows that the PDE-optimal mean-variance hedge in the Heston model takes the well-known form Δ t * = C s + ρ ( η / s ) C v . This form is not new (it appears in Romano and Touzi [7], Hull and White [13], and Gatheral [40] (Chapter 11)). Our contribution is to show how it arises from the multi-stage stochastic-control formulation via the HJB equation, providing a transparent derivation that connects the GKW decomposition to practical implementation.

3.3. Corollaries and Remarks

3.3.1. Black–Scholes Limit

When η → 0 or ρ → 0 with bounded V t , the optimal hedge converges to lim Δ t * = ∂ C BS / ∂ s , recovering the standard Black–Scholes delta.

3.3.2. Residual Risk Decomposition

The minimal achievable hedging error satisfies:
E Q L T 2 = ( 1 − ρ 2 ) E Q ∫ 0 T η 2 V t ∂ C ∂ v 2 d t .
This reveals that: (i) when ρ = ± 1 , perfect hedging is possible; (ii) residual risk is proportional to η and the option vega C v ; (iii) options with high vega-to-price ratios (typically near-the-money, intermediate maturity) exhibit the highest residual risk per dollar of premium. Correction: The original manuscript stated that “deep out-of-the-money options exhibit higher residual risk.” This is not generally true for vanilla calls when vega is low far out-of-the-money. Residual risk is tied to vega and maturity rather than moneyness alone, as confirmed by Equation (17).

3.3.3. Connection to Local Risk-Minimization

The mean-variance optimal hedge (13) coincides with the locally risk-minimizing strategy of Föllmer and Sondermann [5] when the mean-variance trade-off process is deterministic. In general, the two approaches differ: local risk-minimization minimizes the instantaneous variance of the cost process, while mean-variance optimization minimizes the terminal hedging error. Schweizer [16] (Section 5) provided conditions under which the two approaches coincide. We emphasize this distinction to avoid conflating different optimality criteria in the empirical analysis.

3.4. Robust Hedging: Viscosity Solutions

Theorem 5
(Robust Hedging Viscosity Solution). Assume that the admissible parameter set Θ is compact, the controlled coefficients are jointly continuous in the state and parameter variables, and the robust hedging value function satisfies polynomial growth. Then, the robust value function is characterized as the continuous viscosity solution of the corresponding Hamilton–Jacobi–Isaacs equation.
Proof sketch. 
The argument follows the standard dynamic-programming and viscosity-solution framework. One establishes the subsolution and supersolution properties of the value function, applies a comparison principle under the stated continuity and growth assumptions, and recovers uniqueness in the viscosity class (Fleming and Souganidis [33]).    □
In the numerical section, we do not attempt a closed-form solution of the full robust Heston-parameter problem; instead, we approximate the inner supremum by a finite scenario set { ϑ ( m ) } m = 1 M and solve the resulting multi-stage stochastic program at each rebalancing date. In the special uncertain-volatility benchmark with scalar volatility bounds P = { σ ∈ [ σ min , σ max ] } , the worst case is attained at the boundary of the admissible interval, which motivates the boundary-selection intuition used in Section 5.

3.5. From Theory to Implementation

The theoretical framework informs the empirical design in three direct ways. First, the hedge characterization shows that the quantities required in implementation are C s and C v , which motivates the PDE solver and the sensitivity calculations used in Strategies B and C (Section 6). Second, the verification argument (Theorem 4) explains why solving the dynamic program is meaningful: if the regularity conditions hold on the computational domain, the resulting policy coincides with the value-function optimizer for the mean–variance problem. Third, the robust-control formulation (Theorem 5) explains why a fixed worst-case hedge is naturally conservative and why adaptive robustness constitutes a more plausible practical extension (Section 5.3).
The empirical section should therefore be interpreted as a test of these theoretical implications. Strategy C should coincide with Strategy B if the framework is internally consistent, and any incremental benefit relative to Black–Scholes should be concentrated in regimes where volatility risk is most important.

4. Numerical Methods

4.1. Finite Difference Schemes: ADI Method

For the two-dimensional Heston PDE, we employ the Modified Craig–Sneyd (MCS) alternating direction implicit scheme. This method is particularly suitable for convection–diffusion equations with mixed derivatives, as it provides second-order accuracy in both space and time while maintaining computational efficiency. Full implementation specifications are provided below to ensure reproducibility.

4.1.1. Spatial Discretization

We consider a truncated computational domain ( s , v ) ∈ [ 0 , S max ] × [ 0 , V max ] with S max = 14 K and V max = 10 (where K is the option strike). Non-uniform grids are employed to concentrate nodes near the strike and near v = 0 , improving accuracy in regions with steep gradients. The grid mapping functions are as follows:
Spot grid: s i = K + α sinh ( c s ( i / M s − ξ s ) ) , i = 0 , … , M s , with α = K / 5 , c s = 2.5 , ξ s = 0.5 , yielding M s = 200 nodes. This places approximately 40% of nodes in [ 0.8 K , 1.2 K ] .
Variance grid: v j = d sinh ( c v j / M v ) , j = 0 , … , M v , with d = 0.05 , c v = 5 , yielding M v = 100 nodes. This concentrates 60% of nodes in [ 0 , 0.5 ] .
The differential operators are approximated as follows:
  • Second-order central differences for ∂ 2 / ∂ s 2 and ∂ 2 / ∂ v 2 on interior nodes.
  • First-order upwind schemes for ∂ / ∂ v when v < θ to handle advection dominance near the boundary.
  • Second-order central differences for the mixed derivative ∂ 2 / ∂ s ∂ v using a seven-point stencil (in ’t Hout and Foulon [39] (Equation (3.3))).

4.1.2. Boundary Conditions (Detailed)

The boundary conditions at each edge of the computational domain are specified as follows (full rationale in Appendix A):
  • s = 0 : C ( t , 0 , v ) = e − r ( T − t ) f ( 0 ) for put payoffs; for calls, C ( t , 0 , v ) = 0 .
  • s = S max : ∂ 2 C / ∂ s 2 = 0 (linear asymptotic), equivalent to C ( t , S max , v ) = S max − K e − r ( T − t ) for calls.
  • v = 0 (degenerate boundary): The PDE reduces to ∂ C / ∂ t + r s C s + κ θ C v − r C = 0 , solved as an ODE along the boundary.
  • v = V max : ∂ C / ∂ v = 0 (Neumann), justified by option price insensitivity to variance at very high levels.

4.1.3. Temporal Discretization

The infinitesimal generator L of the Heston PDE is decomposed as L = L 1 + L 2 + L 12 , where L 1 contains the s-derivatives, L 2 the v-derivatives, and L 12 the mixed derivative. The MCS scheme treats L 1 and L 2 implicitly and L 12 explicitly, resulting in a sequence of one-dimensional implicit solves per time step. The scheme parameters are θ = 1 / 3 (MCS parameter), yielding second-order accuracy in time. The timestep is Δ t = T / 100 for T ≤ 1 year, with T / 200 for longer maturities. This satisfies the practical timestep restriction Δ t ≤ 10 − 3 needed to control temporal discretization error near v = 0 .

4.1.4. Smoothing Treatment

To handle the non-smooth call payoff at s = K , we employ Rannacher time-stepping: the first four timesteps use the fully implicit (backward Euler) scheme, after which the MCS scheme takes over. This eliminates oscillations near the strike without sacrificing overall second-order accuracy. Additionally, the payoff is smoothed via a mollification with a narrow Gaussian kernel of width ϵ = 0.01 K .
Proposition 1
(Stability of MCS Scheme). The MCS scheme with θ = 1 / 3 is unconditionally stable in the von Neumann sense for the two-dimensional Heston PDE with | ρ | < 1 on the non-uniform grid described above.
Proof sketch. 
Stability follows from Fourier analysis of the amplification matrix associated with the splitting scheme (in ’t Hout and Foulon [39] (Theorem 2.1)). The non-uniform grid mapping does not affect stability because the von Neumann analysis applies locally on each grid cell with frozen coefficients.    □

4.2. Convergence Analysis

Let u denote the exact solution of the Heston PDE on the truncated domain and u h the numerical approximation obtained via the MCS scheme with mesh sizes Δ s , Δ v , and Δ t .
Proposition 2
(Expected Convergence Behavior). Under the assumptions of Theorem 1 and Proposition 1, the MCS scheme satisfies:
∥ u − u h ∥ L ∞ ≤ C 1 ( Δ s max ) 2 + C 2 ( Δ v max ) 2 + C 3 ( Δ t ) 2 ,
where Δ s max and Δ v max are the maximum grid spacings on the non-uniform mesh.
Proof. 
The scheme is consistent of second order in space (on the non-uniform grid with the specified mapping) and time (for θ = 1 / 3 after the Rannacher startup). Combined with unconditional stability (Proposition 1), convergence follows from the Lax equivalence theorem (Richtmyer and Morton [61]). The constants C 1 , C 2 , C 3 depend on the solution regularity (Theorem 1) and the grid mapping parameters.    □
Reference solution and error measurement. The reference solution for convergence testing is computed on a fine grid with M s = 800 , M v = 400 , N t = 1000 and verified against the Heston closed-form solution (Heston [6]) at a subset of test points. The L ∞ error is computed as ∥ u − u h ∥ L ∞ = max | u ( s i , v j , 0 ) − u h ( s i , v j , 0 ) | evaluated at the coarse grid nodes.

4.3. Deep Galerkin Method

For higher-dimensional extensions (e.g., stochastic interest rates or multi-asset models), grid-based methods become computationally infeasible. We therefore employ the Deep Galerkin Method (DGM), a mesh-free neural network approach for solving PDEs, as a benchmark comparison for the two-dimensional problem and as a proof-of-concept for higher-dimensional extensions.

4.3.1. DGM Formulation

We approximate the value function by a feedforward neural network U ( t , s , v ) ≈ U NN ( t , s , v ; θ ) , where θ denotes network parameters. The network is trained by minimizing the PDE residual:
L ( θ ) = ∥ N [ U NN ] ∥ L 2 ( Ω ) 2 + λ bc ∥ U NN − g ∥ L 2 ( ∂ Ω ) 2 ,
where N [ · ] is the HJB operator and g encodes boundary and terminal conditions.

4.3.2. DGM Architecture (Full Specification)

The neural network architecture and training protocol are specified in Table 1.
Table 1. Deep Galerkin Method: Full implementation specification.
Proposition 3
(DGM Approximation). Under the regularity assumptions of Theorem 1 on the solution U, for any ϵ > 0 , there exist network parameters θ * such that ∥ U NN ( · ; θ * ) − U ∥ H 1 ( Ω ) ≤ ϵ .
Proof sketch. 
The result follows from the universal approximation theorem for neural networks (Cybenko [62]; Hornik [63]) combined with PDE regularity estimates from Theorem 1. The network complexity scales as O ( ϵ − d / 2 ) where d is the state-space dimension (De Ryck and Mishra [45] (Theorem 3.2)).    □
Important qualification. Proposition 3 is an existence result; it does not guarantee that gradient-based training finds the optimal parameters θ * . In practice, training convergence depends on architecture choice, initialization, and learning rate scheduling. The empirical convergence is assessed by monitoring the training loss plateau (Section 4.4). The proposition is an approximation result and should not be interpreted as a guarantee of convergence of stochastic gradient descent.

4.4. Complexity Benchmarking

Table 2 compares computational performance for a European call option in the Heston model, measured on an Intel Xeon W-2295 CPU (ADI) and NVIDIA RTX 3090 GPU (DGM), implemented in Python 3.10 with NumPy/SciPy (ADI) and PyTorch 2.0 (DGM).
Table 2. Computational performance comparison between ADI and DGM methods.
Key findings: (i) ADI achieves higher accuracy in 2D with lower computational cost. (ii) DGM scales better to 3D+ dimensions where ADI becomes infeasible. (iii) DGM training time dominates, but evaluation is fast once trained, making it potentially suitable for real-time hedging after an offline training phase. (iv) The L 2 error for DGM is approximately 2–9 times larger than ADI at comparable resolution, consistent with the mesh-based advantage in low dimensions.

5. Robust Hedging Under Model Uncertainty

5.1. Worst-Case Formulation

To address parameter uncertainty, we formulate robust hedging as a minimax problem. Let P be a set of plausible model parameters (e.g., η ∈ [ η min , η max ] ). Find:
U robust ( t , s , v ) = inf Δ ∈ A sup p ∈ P E Q ( p ) ( E T Δ ) 2 .
The robust value function satisfies the Hamilton–Jacobi–Isaacs equation ∂ U robust / ∂ t + inf Δ sup p ∈ P L Δ , p U robust = 0 , where L Δ , p is the infinitesimal generator under parameters p. In practice, we approximate the supremum by scenario sets { ϑ ( m ) } m = 1 M and solve the resulting multi-stage stochastic program at each rebalancing date. The multi-stage structure ensures that decisions at each time account for future opportunities, contrasting with myopic strategies that minimize only immediate variance. When parameter uncertainty is significant, robust strategies typically exhibit more conservative hedging positions to protect against worst-case scenarios.
Worst-case volatility. For P = { σ ∈ [ σ min , σ max ] } , the optimal robust strategy hedges at the upper bound σ max when short gamma and at σ min when long gamma (Avellaneda, Levy, and Paras [8]).

5.2. Sensitivity Analysis

We employ Sobol indices to quantify parameter sensitivity. For the hedging error variance Y = Var ( E T ) as a function of parameters X = ( κ , θ , η , ρ ) , the first-order Sobol index for X i is S i = Var ( E [ Y ∣ X i ] ) / Var ( Y ) . Table 3 shows Sobol indices for a 6-month ATM call option.
Table 3. Sobol sensitivity indices for key Heston model parameters.
Volatility of volatility ( η ) and correlation ( ρ ) are the dominant sources of hedging error uncertainty, explaining approximately 73% of total variance combined. This motivates robust hedging strategies that primarily target these parameters.

5.3. Conceptual Extension: Adaptive Volatility Bounds

Status: The adaptive robustness framework presented in this section is a conceptual extension that illustrates how the robust hedging approach can be made less conservative. The results in Table 4 and Table 5 are illustrative, based on a fully specified but not empirically validated implementation. We present the method in full detail so that readers can reproduce and extend the analysis.
Table 4. Mixed robust–mean–variance hedging performance (crisis regime 2008–2009, simulated paths).
Table 5. Stress-indicator-driven robust hedging performance across regimes (simulated, illustrative).
We define an adaptive volatility bound as:
σ max ( t ) = max V t + k adaptive σ V hist , σ floor ,
where k adaptive = 2.0 controls the sensitivity to variance fluctuations, σ V hist is the 90-day historical standard deviation of realized variance, and σ floor = 0.15 ensures a minimum level of protection. This specification allows the robust strategy to be less conservative during normal market conditions while preserving protection during volatility spikes.

Mixed Robust–Mean–Variance Objective

We formulate the combined objective function as:
J α = α E P E T 2 + ( 1 − α ) sup ϑ ∈ Θ E ϑ E T 2 ,
where α ∈ [ 0 , 1 ] controls the trade-off between classical mean–variance hedging and robust hedging. The parameter uncertainty set is Θ = { κ ∈ [ 1.0 , 4.0 ] , θ ∈ [ 0.01 , 0.08 ] , η ∈ [ 0.2 , 1.0 ] , ρ ∈ [ − 0.9 , − 0.2 ] } , calibrated to cover the 95% confidence region from historical Heston calibrations. Table 4 reports the results for α ∈ { 0.0 , 0.25 , 0.50 , 0.75 , 1.00 } .
Interpretation: Moving from α = 0 to α = 1 reduces standard deviation by 32% at the cost of less tail protection. The intermediate values ( α = 0.25 – 0.50 ) offer a compromise, reducing the cost of robustness by approximately 18–26% while preserving 72–80% of the tail-risk protection relative to the fully robust strategy. These results are based on 5000 simulated paths with the Monte Carlo protocol described in Section 6.1; they should be interpreted as illustrative of the trade-off rather than as calibrated market predictions.

5.4. Conceptual Extension: Stress-Indicator-Driven Robustness

We propose modulating the volatility bound using observable market variables:
σ max ( t ) = σ base + f ( VIX t , SKEW t , IVSt t ) ,
where VIX t , SKEW t , and IVSt t denote market stress indicators and f is a stress function. The stress function is specified as:
f ( VIX , SKEW , IVS ) = w 1 · 1 { VIX > 30 } + w 2 · max { 0 , SKEW − 130 } / 100 + w 3 · max { 0 , ( IVS − 0.15 ) } ,
with weights w 1 = 0.10 , w 2 = 0.05 , w 3 = 0.08 , calibrated to produce a 40% volatility bound under average pre-crisis conditions and a 60% bound under crisis conditions. IVS is the implied volatility skew, measured as the difference between 25-delta put and 25-delta call implied volatilities. The thresholds VIX > 30 and SKEW > 130 are chosen based on historical crisis levels (2008, 2020).
Interpretation: The stress-indicator-driven framework reduces the average cost of robustness by approximately 18–26% while preserving the majority of tail-risk protection. The adaptive robustness preserves roughly 80% of tail-risk protection relative to the fixed robust strategy while reducing the cost of robustness. These figures are based on the specified stress function (24) and should be interpreted as illustrative of the potential of the approach rather than as empirically validated claims.

6. Empirical Analysis

6.1. Reproducible Empirical Protocol

This section provides a complete, self-contained protocol for reproducing all empirical results. We follow the checklist format recommended by the Committee on Publication Ethics (COPE) for computational reproducibility.
  • Option contract selection: Short-dated ATM European call options on the S&P 500 index (SPX) with moneyness 0.98 ≤ S 0 / K ≤ 1.02 and time to maturity 0.4 ≤ T ≤ 1.0 years.
  • Moneyness definition: Moneyness = S 0 / K , where S 0 is the spot price at the beginning of the hedging period and K is the option strike.
  • Maturity rolling rule: Options are rolled to the nearest available maturity ≥ 6 months when time to maturity falls below 3 months.
  • Implied volatility input: ATM implied volatility is extracted from the OptionMetrics implied volatility surface at each date, using cubic spline interpolation in strike and linear interpolation in maturity.
  • Dividends: Dividend yields are backed out from put–call parity at each date: q t = r t − T − 1 ln ( ( C t − P t ) / S t + K / S t ) .
  • Risk-free curve: Constant-maturity Treasury yields from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data), matching the option maturity via linear interpolation.
  • Bid–ask treatment: Option prices are mid-market (average of bid and ask). Bid–ask spreads are recorded but not used in the calibration; they are reported for context.
  • Calibration loss function: Mean squared error in implied volatility space: min Θ ∑ i , j w i j ( σ model ( K i , T j ; Θ ) − σ market ( K i , T j ) ) 2 , with weights w i j = 1 / ( bid - ask spread i j ) .
  • Calibration constraints: κ ∈ [ 0.1 , 10 ] , θ ∈ [ 0.001 , 1 ] , η ∈ [ 0.01 , 5 ] , ρ ∈ [ − 1 , 1 ] , V 0 ∈ [ 0.001 , 1 ] , plus Feller condition 2 κ θ ≥ η 2 .
  • Optimizer: Levenberg–Marquardt (MATLAB lsqnonlin), with 10 random restarts and best-of-10 selection.
  • Calibration frequency: Daily recalibration using a rolling 30-day window of option prices.
  • Path generation: Simulated paths using the Quadratic Exponential (QE) scheme of Andersen [55] with Δ t = 1 / 252 (daily steps). Heston parameters are held constant within each regime (Table 6). This is a Monte Carlo experiment, not a historical backtest on realized paths.
  • P&L units: Per-dollar-of-notional (i.e., P&L as a fraction of the underlying spot price at inception).
  • Hedge financing convention: Self-financing portfolio with continuous rebalancing at daily frequency. The portfolio is marked to market each day.
  • Transaction cost accounting: Proportional transaction costs of 5 bps per dollar traded (baseline), with sensitivity analysis at 1, 10, and 25 bps. Costs are deducted from the portfolio at each rebalancing.
  • Confidence intervals: 10,000-block bootstrap with block length 22 trading days (∼1 month), stratified by regime. See Appendix D for full procedure.
Table 6. Average calibrated Heston parameters across market regimes.

6.2. Data and Calibration

We use S&P 500 index options (SPX) from OptionMetrics over January 2006–December 2022. Heston parameters are calibrated daily following the protocol above. Table 6 reports average calibrated parameters consistent with previous studies.

6.3. Backtesting Methodology

Four strategies are compared on simulated paths (see protocol above):
(A)
Black–Scholes delta hedging: Uses ATM implied volatility as the constant volatility input.
(B)
Heston delta hedging with periodic recalibration: Uses Δ = C s + ρ ( η / s ) C v with C s , C v computed from the ADI PDE solver. Parameters recalibrated monthly.
(C)
PDE-optimal multi-stage hedging: Solves the HJB Equation (7) for the mean–variance optimal hedge using the same ADI solver. Parameters recalibrated monthly.
(D)
Robust delta hedging with fixed volatility bound σ max = 40 % : Hedges using Black–Scholes delta with σ = 40 % regardless of market conditions.
All strategies rebalance daily with transaction costs of 5 bps unless otherwise specified. Strategy B employs the delta-plus-vega adjustment (Equation (12)). Strategy C solves the HJB equation for the mean-variance optimal hedge. Strategy D assumes a constant robust volatility level of 40%.

Simulation Details and Reproducibility

  • Random seed. All simulations use a fixed random seed (seed = 42 ) based on the Mersenne Twister generator (MT19937), initialized with numpy.random.seed(42).
  • Path discretization. We employ the Quadratic Exponential (QE) scheme of Andersen [55]: Δ t = 1 / 252 , corresponding to 252 trading days per year. The QE method is preferred over Euler–Maruyama due to variance positivity issues and over Broadie–Kaya because of computational expense.
  • Variance reduction. Antithetic variates are used, reducing variance by approximately 30–40%. No control variates are employed because the optimal control is unavailable in closed form.
  • Monte Carlo trials.  N = 5000 paths per year per strategy are simulated. Standard errors for mean P&L lie approximately within 0.08–0.12.

6.4. Results by Market Regime

6.4.1. Pre-Crisis Low-Volatility Regime (2006–2007)

Table 7 shows the Pre-crisis hedging performance between (2006–2007), using 5000 simulated paths. Strategy C is numerically identical to Strategy B (difference < 10 − 6 in mean P&L), consistent with Theorem 4 and the GKW characterization under Heston dynamics. Strategy D exhibits substantially larger dispersion.
Table 7. Pre-crisis hedging performance (2006–2007), 5000 simulated paths.

6.4.2. Crisis Regime (2008–2009)

Table 8 shows crisis hedging performance between (2008–2009), using 5000 simulated paths. Strategy B reduces the standard deviation by approximately 5.6% relative to Black–Scholes. Strategy C again coincides with B (difference < 10 − 6 ). Static robust hedging underperforms during volatility spikes.
Table 8. Crisis-period hedging performance (2008–2009), 5000 simulated paths.

6.4.3. Stable Expansion (2010–2019)

Table 9 shows stable hedging performance between (2010–2019), using 5000 simulated paths.Frequent recalibration captures nearly all benefits under normal market conditions. The standard deviation reduction is only 0.2%.
Table 9. Stable-period hedging performance (2010–2019), 5000 simulated paths.

6.4.4. Volatility Shock (2020–2022)

Table 10 shows stable hedging performance between (2020–2022), using 5000 simulated paths. Heston-based hedging yields modest improvements over Black–Scholes. Static robust hedging remains overly conservative.
Table 10. COVID-period hedging performance (2020–2022), 5000 simulated paths.

6.4.5. Cross-Regime Interpretation and the B ≡ C Result

The principal empirical finding is that Strategy C ≡ Strategy B throughout all reported experiments (differences < 10 − 6 , within machine precision). This confirms the theoretical prediction of the mean–variance characterization under unconstrained Heston dynamics (Theorem 4). The PDE formulation therefore acts mainly as a theoretical validation rather than a distinct trading rule.
We emphasize that the B ≡ C result is not a flaw but a consistency check: it demonstrates that the multi-stage stochastic-control formulation (HJB) recovers the same hedge as the instantaneous Galtchouk–Kunita–Watanabe projection when both are applied to the same Heston model. The value of the framework lies not in producing a different trading rule but in: (i) providing a transparent derivation of why the stochastic-volatility-aware hedge is mean–variance optimal; (ii) enabling natural extensions (robust hedging, transaction costs, higher-dimensional problems) through the PDE/control framework; and (iii) offering convergence-guaranteed numerical methods (ADI) as an alternative to simulation-based approaches. The value of the framework lies not in generating a different hedge for the unconstrained Heston model, but in providing a mathematically rigorous control-theoretic foundation that extends naturally to robust control, transaction costs, jumps, rough volatility, and higher-dimensional state spaces where closed-form hedge representations are unavailable.

6.5. Transaction Cost Sensitivity

Table 11 reports sensitivity to transaction costs. Heston-based strategies retain superior net performance due to lower turnover.
Table 11. Transaction-cost sensitivity (stable regime 2010–2019), net-of-cost Sharpe ratios.

Rebalancing Frequency Analysis

Table 12 reports the standard deviation of P&L for different rebalancing frequencies.
Table 12. Rebalancing frequency analysis (crisis regime 2008–2009), standard deviation of P&L.
Daily rebalancing dominates only under sufficiently low transaction costs. For Strategy B, weekly rebalancing becomes preferable beyond approximately 10 bps.

6.6. Claims Versus Evidence Audit

Table 13 provides an explicit audit of all headline claims against the numerical evidence.
Table 13. Claims versus evidence audit.
The normal-market standard deviation reduction is 0.2% during the stable period. This claim is defined as a range of 0.2–1% to reflect that the improvement is highly regime-dependent and generally smaller in calmer market environments. This highlights the importance of tying headline claims directly to explicit regime, metric, and benchmark definitions to ensure an accurate presentation of performance.

7. Discussion

7.1. Economic Implications

7.1.1. Regime-Dependent Value of Model Sophistication

Our results reveal pronounced regime dependence in the economic value of stochastic-volatility-aware hedging. In normal conditions (2006–2007, 2010–2019), incremental benefit of B/C over A is 0–0.5% standard deviation reduction. In stress (2008–2009, 2020–2022): standard deviation reductions 2.7–5.6%, VaR95 improvements 5–13%. This qualifies universal-superiority claims [47,50] and is consistent with Hansen and Sargent [29]. This finding is also consistent with Hull and White [13], who showed that when volatility changes are small and gradual, Black–Scholes-type hedging performs adequately.

7.1.2. The Cost of Robustness

The robust worst-case strategy (Strategy D) consistently exhibits inferior performance across most regimes, except under extreme volatility realizations exceeding the assumed worst-case threshold. This underperformance arises from systematic over-hedging, as the strategy prices in adverse scenarios that rarely materialize. This behavior is consistent with the critique of robust control frameworks by Hansen and Sargent [29], which emphasize that worst-case optimization may lead to overly conservative decisions. In practical settings, such conservatism translates into reduced efficiency and excessive hedging costs, particularly in moderate volatility environments.

7.1.3. Transaction Costs and Trading Frictions

Incorporating transaction costs significantly alters the relative attractiveness of the hedging strategies. While Strategy A achieves reasonable risk control, it incurs the highest turnover (approximately 3.2% of notional), reflecting frequent rebalancing. Strategies B and C achieve superior risk-adjusted performance by reducing trading intensity through smoother hedge adjustments driven by mean-reversion in volatility. This results in lower transaction costs (approximately 1.8%) while maintaining improved tail risk characteristics. Strategy D minimizes trading costs due to its near-static nature, but this advantage is outweighed by its poor risk profile. Overall, net-of-cost performance favors stochastic volatility-aware strategies, with improvements in Sharpe ratios of approximately 0.15–0.25 annually relative to Black–Scholes hedging.

7.2. Policy Implications

7.2.1. Implications for Financial Regulation

The proposed framework provides a rigorous methodology for quantifying hedging error distributions under model uncertainty. This has direct applications for regulatory capital assessment under frameworks such as Basel III/IV. In particular, the robust hedging strategy offers a conservative benchmark for stress testing. Regulators may require financial institutions to report both best-estimate hedging error distributions (model-based) and worst-case hedging error distributions (robust). Such dual reporting enhances transparency regarding model risk exposure.

7.2.2. Implications for Risk Management

The empirical results support a regime-adaptive approach to hedging: in low-volatility environments, simple models with frequent recalibration are sufficient; in high-volatility regimes (e.g., VIX > 30 ), stochastic volatility models provide substantial benefits; robust hedging should not be applied continuously, but rather activated conditionally based on stress indicators. This suggests the use of regime-switching hedging frameworks, where model complexity is dynamically adjusted based on observable market conditions.

7.2.3. Implications for Derivatives Trading

The Galtchouk–Kunita–Watanabe decomposition provides a practical and implementable hedging rule in incomplete markets. The optimal hedge Δ * = ∂ C / ∂ s + ρ ( η / s ) ∂ C / ∂ v can be approximated directly from observable option prices via implied volatility surfaces. This eliminates the need for full structural model calibration and enables real-time implementation using market data, making the framework directly applicable in trading environments.

7.3. Limitations

7.3.1. Mathematical Limitations

The theoretical results on the truncated domain (Theorem 1) rely on smoothness assumptions requiring classical solutions in C 1 , 2 , 2 . Extensions to non-smooth payoffs (e.g., digital or barrier options) require the viscosity-solution framework (Theorem 2), which is provided but not numerically tested. While the Deep Galerkin Method alleviates dimensionality constraints, rigorous convergence guarantees in high dimensions are not fully established. The framework assumes direct observability of volatility V t . In practice, volatility is latent and must be inferred from market data, introducing filtering error not captured in the PDE formulation.

7.3.2. Empirical Limitations

The empirical analysis uses simulated paths under the Heston model rather than realized historical SPX paths. This is a deliberate choice to isolate the hedging error attributable to model specification, but it means that the results do not capture model misspecification (e.g., jumps, rough volatility) that would arise in historical backtests. Extensions to historical realized paths are an important direction for future work. The analysis focuses on a single underlying (S&P 500 index options). Extensions to multi-asset portfolios with correlation risk require more complex stochastic covariance models. The assumption of fixed daily rebalancing may be suboptimal; incorporating optimal execution timing (impulse control) could improve cost–risk trade-offs. Finally, the model assumes correct specification of the Heston dynamics. Model misspecification risk, particularly under alternative volatility structures such as rough volatility, is not addressed.

8. Conclusions and Future Research

The main contribution of this paper is to show how a multi-stage PDE and stochastic-control formulation recovers the stochastic-volatility-aware hedge in a mathematically transparent way. In the Heston setting studied here, the reported PDE-optimal mean-variance hedge is numerically indistinguishable from the recalibrated Heston hedge, so the empirical value of the framework lies less in generating a new trading rule than in clarifying when and why that hedge should be used. The backtests indicate that the gains over Black–Scholes hedging are regime-dependent: negligible in calm markets (0.2% variance reduction), moderate in stress periods (2.7–5.6% variance reduction), and insufficient to support universal superiority claims. Fixed robust hedging is overly conservative in the historical sample, which motivates adaptive robustness extensions rather than static worst-case rules.
From a theoretical perspective, we establish verification results (Theorem 4) linking solutions of the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation to optimal hedging strategies, provide explicit characterization of the mean-variance optimal hedge via the Galtchouk–Kunita–Watanabe decomposition, and derive existence and uniqueness results for classical solutions on truncated domains (Theorem 1) and viscosity solutions on the full domain (Theorem 2). Methodologically, we compare ADI and DGM with full reproducibility specifications. Empirically, backtesting (2006–2022) with bootstrap confidence intervals shows stochastic-volatility-aware hedging provides modest benefits concentrated in stress periods. The B ≡ C result confirms Theorem 4. Robust strategies are overly conservative; our adaptive conceptual approaches mitigate this.
Future Research Directions: Several promising extensions emerge from this work:
  • Rough Volatility Models: Extending the framework to fractional volatility dynamics ( H < 0.5 ) requires non-local PDE techniques.
  • Mean-Field Games: Large-scale hedging problems with interacting agents can be modeled using mean-field game theory.
  • Deep Learning Theory: Establishing rigorous error bounds for DGM in high-dimensional PDEs remains an open challenge.
  • Partial Information: Incorporating filtering techniques (e.g., particle filters) to jointly estimate and hedge volatility processes.
  • Market Impact: Accounting for price feedback effects leads to forward–backward stochastic differential equations.
  • Historical Backtesting: Repeating the empirical analysis on realized historical SPX paths rather than simulated Heston paths to assess model misspecification.

Author Contributions

Conceptualization, D.M., S.T.M. and Ş.C.G.; methodology, D.M., S.T.M. and Ş.C.G.; software, D.M., S.T.M. and Ş.C.G.; validation, D.M., S.T.M. and Ş.C.G.; formal analysis, D.M., S.T.M. and Ş.C.G.; investigation, D.M., S.T.M. and Ş.C.G.; resources, D.M., S.T.M. and Ş.C.G.; data curation, D.M., S.T.M. and Ş.C.G.; writing—original draft preparation, D.M., S.T.M. and Ş.C.G.; writing—review and editing, D.M., S.T.M. and Ş.C.G.; visualization, D.M., S.T.M. and Ş.C.G.; supervision, D.M., S.T.M. and Ş.C.G.; project administration, D.M., S.T.M. and Ş.C.G.; funding acquisition, D.M., S.T.M. and Ş.C.G. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

Funding

This research received no external funding.

Data Availability Statement

The original contributions presented in this study are included in the article. Further inquiries can be directed to the corresponding author.

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

Appendix A. Boundary Conditions and Smoothing

Appendix A.1. Boundary Condition Rationale

The boundary conditions at each edge of the computational domain D = [ 0 , S max ] × [ 0 , V max ] are chosen as follows:
At s = 0 : For a European call option, C ( t , 0 , v ) = 0 because the option is worthless if the underlying is zero. For a put option, C ( t , 0 , v ) = K e − r ( T − t ) by put–call parity. This Dirichlet condition is exact.
At s = S max : As s → ∞ , the option delta approaches 1 and the option value approaches s − K e − r ( T − t ) (for calls). We impose the linear asymptotic condition ∂ 2 C / ∂ s 2 = 0 , which is equivalent to C ( t , S max , v ) = S max − K e − r ( T − t ) for calls. This is a second-order accurate approximation when S max ≫ K .
At v = 0 : When v = 0 , the Heston PDE degenerates because the coefficients of C s s , C s v , and C v v vanish. The remaining terms give ∂ C / ∂ t + r s C s + κ θ C v − r C = 0 . This is a first-order hyperbolic equation in the ( t , s ) variables with an additional C v term. We solve it as an ODE along the boundary using a first-order upwind discretization for C v .
At v = V max : When v is very large, option prices become insensitive to further increases in variance. We impose the Neumann condition ∂ C / ∂ v = 0 , which is justified because the option vega decays rapidly for large v.

Appendix A.2. Rannacher Time-Stepping

To handle the non-smooth call payoff at s = K , we employ the Rannacher startup procedure: the first N R = 4 timesteps use the fully implicit (backward Euler) scheme with Δ t R = Δ t / 2 , after which the MCS scheme takes over with the full timestep Δ t . This eliminates oscillations near the strike without sacrificing overall second-order accuracy, because the startup error is O ( Δ t R ) = O ( Δ t ) and affects only O ( 1 ) timesteps.

Appendix A.3. Payoff Smoothing

The call payoff max ( s − K , 0 ) has a discontinuous first derivative at s = K . We smooth it via mollification: f ϵ ( s ) = ( f ∗ ϕ ϵ ) ( s ) , where ϕ ϵ ( x ) = ( 2 π ϵ 2 ) − 1 / 2 exp ( − x 2 / ( 2 ϵ 2 ) ) is a Gaussian kernel with ϵ = 0.01 K . This preserves the overall shape while removing the kink.

Appendix B. Full DGM Implementation Details

Appendix B.1. Network Architecture

The DGM network is a fully connected feedforward network with the following architecture:
  • Input: z = (t, s, v) normalized to [-1, 1]^3
  • Layer 0: h_0 = tanh(W_0 * z + b_0), W_0 in R^{3 x 50}
  • For l = 1 to 3 (hidden layers):
  •          h_l = tanh(W_l * h_{l-1} + b_l) + h_{l-1}  # skip connection
  •          W_l in R^{50 x 50}
  • Output: U_NN = W_out * h_3 + b_out, W_out in R^{1 x 50}
  • Total parameters: (3*50+50) + 3*(50*50+50) + (50*1+1) = 8,201

Appendix B.2. Training Procedure

  • Initialize: Xavier initialization for all W_l, b_l = 0
  • For iteration = 1 to 50,000:
  •       Sample N_int = 2,048 interior points:
  •            Latin hypercube on [0,T] x [0,S_max] x [0,V_max]
  •       Sample N_bc = 256 boundary points (uniform on each face)
  •       Sample N_term = 256 terminal points (at t=T)
  •       Compute L_int = mean( (N[U_NN](z_i))^2 )
  •       Compute L_bc = mean( (U_NN(z_j) - g(z_j))^2 )
  •       Compute L_term = mean( (U_NN(z_k) - f(s_k))^2 )
  •       Total loss = L_int + 100 * (L_bc + L_term)
  •       Update: Adam optimizer, lr = 1e-3 * cos(pi * iter / 100000)
  •       Every 1,000 iterations: evaluate on validation set,
  •            check for plateau

Appendix C. Reproducibility Checklist

Table A1. Reproducibility checklist for all empirical results.

Appendix D. Bootstrap Confidence Intervals

Bootstrap confidence intervals for the performance differences between strategies are computed as follows:
  • Block bootstrap: The N = 5000 simulated paths are divided into non-overlapping blocks of length L = 22 trading days (∼1 month). This block length is chosen to preserve the temporal dependence in volatility while providing sufficient blocks for reliable inference.
  • Resampling: We draw B = 10 , 000 bootstrap samples, each consisting of N / L blocks sampled with replacement from the original blocks.
  • Statistic computation: For each bootstrap sample b and each pair of strategies ( i , j ) , we compute the difference in mean P&L ( π ¯ i ( b ) − π ¯ j ( b ) ), standard deviation difference, and tail risk metric differences.
  • Confidence intervals: The 95% confidence interval for each difference is computed as the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of the bootstrap distribution.
Table A2. 95% bootstrap confidence intervals for key performance differences (crisis regime).

Appendix E. Computational Environment

Table A3. Hardware and software specifications.

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