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Economies, Volume 3, Issue 3 (September 2015) , Pages 128-149

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Open AccessEditorial
Economies Inclusion in the Web of Science and Changes in Its Review Process
Economies 2015, 3(3), 148-149; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies3030148 - 22 Sep 2015
Viewed by 3026
Abstract
Economies is entering its third year of existence and an impressive amount of high-quality research has already been published. It is fair to say that Economies has already established itself as an international, peer-reviewed, open access journal. [...] Full article
Open AccessEditorial
Economic Development in Southeast Asia
Economies 2015, 3(3), 147; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies3030147 - 07 Sep 2015
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 3177
Abstract
Most of the original ASEAN nations in Southeast Asia came out of the Asian Crisis facing slower growth (4%–6% a year) and modest structural change compared to previous decades. [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Economic Development in Southeast Asia)
Open AccessArticle
Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty Revisited: Evidence from Egypt
Economies 2015, 3(3), 128-146; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies3030128 - 20 Jul 2015
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 3904
Abstract
The welfare costs of inflation and inflation uncertainty are well documented in the literature and empirical evidence on the link between the two is sparse in the case of Egypt. This paper investigates the causal relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in Egypt [...] Read more.
The welfare costs of inflation and inflation uncertainty are well documented in the literature and empirical evidence on the link between the two is sparse in the case of Egypt. This paper investigates the causal relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in Egypt using monthly time series data during the period January 1974–April 2015. To endogenously control for any potential structural breaks in the inflation time series, Zivot and Andrews (2002) and Clemente–Montanes–Reyes (1998) unit root tests are used. The inflation–inflation uncertainty relation is modeled by the standard two-step approach as well as simultaneously using various versions of the GARCH-M model to control for any potential feedback effects. The analyses explicitly control for the effect of the Economic Reform and Structural Adjustment Program (ERSAP) undertaken by the Egyptian government in the early 1990s, which affected inflation rate and its associated volatility. Results show a high degree of inflation–volatility persistence in the response to inflationary shocks. Granger-causality test along with symmetric and asymmetric GARCH-M models indicate a statistically significant bi-directional positive relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty, supporting both the Friedman–Ball and the Cukierman–Meltzer hypotheses. The findings are robust to the various estimation methods and model specifications. The findings of this paper support the view of adopting inflation-targeting policy in Egypt, after fulfilling its preconditions, to reduce the welfare cost of inflation and its related uncertainties. Monetary authorities in Egypt should enhance the credibility of monetary policy and attempt to reduce inflation uncertainty, which will help lower inflation rates. Full article
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