Economies, Volume 12, Issue 4 (April 2024) – 22 articles

In this study spanning four decades, we explored the relationship between the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) interventions and the validity of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) across two distinct exchange rate regimes: the fixed exchange rate regime (1975–1993) and the managed floating regime (1994–2015). Applying an error correction model (VECM), our analysis reveals that under the fixed exchange rate regime, the environment is conducive to PPP due to frequent interventions by the RBI. However, in the managed floating regime, selective interventions weaken the applicability of PPP. These findings align with prior research but also hint at the limitations of linear models in capturing the intricate dynamics of PPP when central banks are involved. Nonlinear models may hold the key to unraveling the relationship more effectively. Full article

Remittances are a crucial part of economic expansion, especially in Central Asia. Nevertheless, it is not possible to ignore its environmental damage. This paper is a pioneer in investigating the association among CO₂ emissions, remittances, energy consumption and economic development in Central Asian countries (Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan) spanning the period of 1995–2022. As a methodology, the FMOLS estimator is applied to check linear impact and long-run association as well. Panel threshold regression model and 2SLS method are applied to examine potential non-linear relations among the studied variables. Hausman–Taylor and Amacurdy estimators are employed to control the endogeneity issue among the variables of interest. The results suggest the existence of a long-run relationship among the studied variables. Precisely, applying the FMOLS method, remittances negatively impact CO₂ emissions in the long run. The relationship between CO₂ emissions and remittances is distorted when the endogeneity issue is considered with the Panel threshold regression model, 2SLS method, and Hausman–Taylor and Amacurdy estimators. This distortion validates the linear impact of remittances on CO₂ emissions in CA. The Dumitrescu–Hurlin causality test shows that all independent variables have a causal effect on the dependent variable, validating the effect of the studied variables. Consequently, decision-makers should facilitate remittances towards more environmentally friendly and sustainable solutions to prevent the detrimental effects of remittance inflows on carbon emissions in Central Asia. Full article

Canada’s universities each receive an annual operating grant from their provincial government to partially finance operating expenses. This paper estimates the sensitivity of provincial operating grants to the business cycle by disentangling the effects of procyclical income on government revenue and the countercyclical effect on student demand by utilizing an economic regression model composed of three equations. Our panel data include the total real operating grant paid to all universities within a province, total student enrolment, real per capita government revenue, and real per capita gross domestic product for Canada’s ten provinces over the 1992–2019 sample period. The results confirm that real per capita government revenues are procyclical and that full-time equivalent student enrolments are counter-cyclical. The total real operating grant is only weakly associated with cyclical changes in provincial government revenue. Instead, the total real operating grant is mainly determined by countercyclical changes in student demand. This partially offsets the potential reduction in funding to universities during an economic downturn. Provincial governments in Canada can smooth the total allocation over the business cycle by adjusting other expenditures and using debt financing. Our results suggest they do this to some extent, but not enough to avoid a net reduction in real operating grants during an economic downturn. Full article

Despite recent efforts in Peru to boost financial inclusion, significant issues of exclusion persist, especially among vulnerable groups. This article aims to identify and analyze areas at risk of financial exclusion using a multifaceted methodology: the Financial Access Survey (FAS) for comparative analysis (Peru versus other countries and regions), geographical-distribution analysis, and the Access to Cash Index (ACI) methodology. Findings reveal that remote rural areas of Peru, particularly those inland, as well as mountainous or jungle regions, face higher risks of financial exclusion due to low digital literacy, limited digital banking usage, sparse branch and ATM networks, and inadequate transportation infrastructure. These insights can inform targeted public policies to enhance financial inclusion in Peru, as well as the development. Full article

Using a diagonal BEKK model, this paper estimates a spillover effect from the international crude oil market to the Korean stock market. Empirical results suggest that shocks and volatility in Dubai oil prices are significantly transmitted into twenty portfolios of the Korean stock market. Also, it was found that these spillover effects dramatically rose during the year 2020, when the threat of COVID-19 was the most serious. More specifically, oil-oriented portfolios, such as the power and gas firms’ portfolio and chemical firms’ portfolio, had a greater spillover effect from the international crude oil market rather than other portfolios. Further, compared to larger-capitalization firm portfolios, small-capitalization firm portfolios had a relatively greater spillover effect. Several implications and important avenues for further research are identified. Full article

Countries and international bodies are focusing on agriculture as a route to achieving sustainable food security. Hence, the aim of this study is to examine the determinants of food security. It investigates the effects of gross domestic product deflator (GDPD), rural population, arable area, agricultural workers, farmers, agricultural exports, and agricultural imports on agricultural performance, which is a metric of food security. This study uses time lapse data models of a sample from the group of Maghreb states, namely Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, and Mauritania, for the 2003–2018 period. All these data were collected from the statistical reports of the Arab Organization for Agricultural Development. The results provide evidence of the significant positive impacts of gross domestic product, arable areas, and agricultural exports on the agricultural sector’s performance, which results in achieving food security. However, the results indicate that the rural population and the number of workers in the agricultural sector have a significantly negative relationship with agricultural sector performance. In terms of agricultural imports, the results do not show a relationship between agricultural imports and agricultural sector performance. To the best of the researchers’ knowledge, this is the first study conducted in the Maghreb states, including five countries. This study alerts policymakers to issues regarding the importance of having effective policies that could enhance the performance of agricultural production to achieve food security in the Maghreb states. Policymakers must improve the investment climate in North African countries to encourage investors to enter the agricultural sector. Full article

Inefficiency is a problem in the production process, including in the organic farming sector. Over a long term period, this problem can disrupt the productivity of agricultural crops. This research aims to analyze the production and marketing efficiency of organic cabbage farming in the Kopeng agropolitan area, Indonesia. We utilized a Cobb–Douglas production efficiency analysis with the Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) approach. The variables in this study include organic cabbage production, land area, seedlings, organic fertilizers, organic pesticides, and labor. We conducted in-depth interviews with 60 organic cabbage farmers in Kopeng, Indonesia, from January to August 2023. The research results showed that organic cabbage cultivation was economically inefficient in production, technical, and marketing. The use of organic fertilizers, the ability to diversify products on limited land, and the use of pesticides, have not been utilized optimally yet. The results of the marketing efficiency analysis showed that it was efficient. Organic plants were believed to have their market share and to have a higher selling value than non-organic ones. The implication was that the government needed to provide training in producing organic fertilizers and pesticides to reduce production costs so that organic farming could be technically and financially efficient. This research enriched the discussion regarding the need to analyze production and marketing efficiency to find strategies to increase organic cabbage productivity. Full article

In times of intense economic variability and social turbulence worldwide, this paper aims to examine the existence of transient correlations and interdependencies between the most important MSCI ESG indices worldwide and the most important commodities’ index, economic uncertainty, natural gas, gold, and VIX, in a geographical and social context during two recent crises: the COVID-19 pandemic and the energy crisis due to the Ukrainian war. Using daily data from 3 January 2020 and extending until 23 August 2022, this study applies a wavelet coherence approach to analyze time series co-movements, in order to emphasize all possible combinations’ correlations and achieve more accurate outcomes at any given time and frequency band simultaneously and spontaneously. The results show robust coherence between different geographical areas, time, and frequency bands, indicating both positive and negative correlations with most of the combined ESG indices and other economic indicators. The study suggests that stock indices of leading ESG companies in North America and Europe constitute a safe investment haven during major upheavals and crises, providing a way for investors to manage risk and generate positive returns while contributing to economic sustainability. Full article

The misery index (MI) was devised to summarize the most evident costs for a society, attempting to objectively measure the loss in general welfare. It has been remarked in the literature that economic growth exerts a negative impact on the MI; however, analyses of this relationship in the tourism field have been neglected. This study assessed the effectiveness of the tourism sector at improving welfare conditions by measuring the impact of tourism GDP on the misery index and providing a theoretical framework for the relationship between tourism and the MI. A quantitative analysis was conducted using quarterly time series data for the period 2005Q1–2021Q2. Firstly, the existence of a long-term relationship was tested by using the Toda–Yamamoto procedure, and secondly, by applying linear and nonlinear ARDL models. The main results show that tourism can help to reduce the loss of welfare mirrored by the MI. These findings have policy implications, as they provide evidence that expanding the tourism sector counters the MI, and, consequently, the economic malaises derived from it. Full article

This article provides an empirical analysis aimed at evaluating the financial trends and disparities at the sector level within the Balkan and Eastern European region. The dataset encompasses a period of nine years and comprises more than 20 million firm-year observations from 24 industries in 21 countries. It uses 19 financial ratios to assess sectoral performance. In the empirical investigation, trend analysis and the two-step cluster analysis methods were used. Following the global financial crisis, a significant proportion of financial ratios exhibited favorable trends, indicating robust business and economic circumstances. Nevertheless, this trajectory was temporarily disrupted in 2020 due to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. By 2021, the financial ratios had reverted back to their historical patterns. Country membership, margin, liquidity, trade turnover, profitability, and leverage ratios are the most effective variables for explaining differences in sectoral performance. Sector membership is a comparatively less influential factor. Although this study effectively identified significant disparities in financial ratio profiles, it does not suggest that companies in the most developed countries in the region attain the most favorable financial performance. Stakeholders who have a vested interest in this region should carefully contemplate the ramifications of the findings from this study. Full article

One of the factors that characterize the different countries of the Balkan area is the level of corruption which, as often stressed by scholars, may significantly influence the economic growth of its countries. However, there is still no agreement on the sign of this effect: there are theoretical arguments and empirical results in favor of a positive correlation between corruption and growth, and there are also theoretical arguments and empirical results that support the opposite view. Comparing the short-term and long-term impacts can help to explain this contradiction. In this perspective, we propose an auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) methodology. This approach gives both short-run and long-run results simultaneously and it is robust with small samples. The results are not homogeneous for the eight countries covered by our study (Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece, North Macedonia, Romania, Serbia, Slovenia, and Turkey), but the following theoretical intuition is confirmed: although corruption could be seen as a factor that helps economic growth by speeding up the bureaucratic processing in the short run, conversely, in the long run, the social costs associated with corruption are considerable, making it difficult to sustain the political, economic, and social burdens, thus leading to a higher levels of corruption that negatively affect the economic growth. These results confirm certain aspects of Albert Hirschman’s ideas regarding private interests and public action. Full article

In this work, we develop a trade model that explains the pattern of trade between countries based on differences in total factor productivity (TFP) while also accounting for differences in relative factor endowments. The novelty stems from the introduction of production functions derived by combining the Ricardian and Heckscher–Ohlin–Samuelson (H-O-S) theories, with TFP differences serving as the basis of comparative advantage. To this end, a testable hypothesis is derived. For the empirical measurement of the TFP in each industry and country, a constant elasticity of substitution (CES)-type production function was employed, and the TFP was calculated as the Solow residual from the production function’s fixed term. To offer a better understanding, the model was tested for the bilateral trade between Germany and Russia, and Germany and the Czech Republic. It was found that TFP differences can be used as a basis for explaining comparative advantages and, consequently, the bilateral pattern of trade between two countries. Full article

The primary objectives of this research are to compare the economic performance of the Member States (MS) in the Euro Area 12 (EA-12) of the European Union (EU) that served as net contributors and net recipients of its budget during the period 1998–2022. The comparison focuses on aspects related to economic growth and the business cycle, exploring the presence of hysteresis. To achieve these objectives, a novel approach is employed, which integrates the analysis of both growth and cycles. This approach involves using the Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations (SURE) model to estimate a translog production frontier and assess the impact of lagging output gaps on the potential output or capacity for each of the MS considered. The data used to estimate each frontier and analyze growth decomposition consist of quarterly data filtered using the Kalman filter. The results reveal that lagging output gaps, occurring one or two quarters prior, significantly affect the potential output or capacity of the EA-12 MS, thereby supporting the existence of hysteresis. However, the impacts appear to be minimal. Furthermore, the research concludes that changes in total factor productivity (TFP), mainly due to technical change, play a more crucial role in the growth of MS that are net contributors to the EU budget. Conversely, total factor accumulation (TFA), mainly physical capital accumulation, has a more pronounced impact on the growth of MS net recipients from the EU budget. Interestingly, the heterogeneity observed among the EA-12 MS extends beyond the simple division between net contributors and net recipients of the EU budget. This heterogeneity raises questions about the European Central Bank’s (ECB) ability to stabilize the economies of these various MS solely through conventional monetary policy. Full article

This study investigates the impact of green equity indices on global market dynamics using a time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) model. We uncover a significant shift in the role of the global market, transitioning from a shock transmitter to a shock receiver, as the influence of green finance grows. By directly comparing green equity indices with their corresponding global parent indices, we adopt a global perspective that transcends the limitations of studies focusing on specific regions, such as the USA, China, or Europe. This novel approach minimizes the potential biases in the transmission channels within regional markets, enabling a more comprehensive understanding of the relationship between green finance and global market dynamics. Moreover, by focusing on equity indices we ensure a consistent comparison of financial instruments, avoiding the complexities that arise when comparing different asset classes such as green bonds and conventional equities. For global investors, our results highlight the importance of dynamic and flexible hedging strategies that adapt to the distinct characteristics of green assets and their growing influence on the global market. Risk managers should incorporate these time-varying spillover effects into their models to better assess and mitigate potential risks. Policymakers should consider the growing influence of green finance on the broader market when formulating regulations and incentives to support sustainable investing, as our findings underscore the increasing importance of this sector in shaping market dynamics. Full article

Internationalization is a crucial process for companies seeking growth and expansion in foreign markets, especially in the Middle East, where economies have been developing and diversifying business opportunities, seeing it as an attractive destination to expand their operations. This study presents a comprehensive analysis of the internationalization process of economic diplomacy by exploring the experiences of renowned Portuguese companies within the Gulf Cooperation Council. The Gulf Cooperation Council countries are integral players in the Middle East market, characterized as rentier states that are heavily reliant on oil and gas revenues and possess varying levels of economic and military strength, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE being the most prominent. The focus group method was applied in the qualitative research. It contributes to reinforcing the literature on internationalization processes, economic diplomacy, and the Middle East market. The findings provide valuable guidance to Portuguese companies, policymakers, and economic diplomats involved in promoting and facilitating international trade and investment. Full article

This comparative study analyzed the impact of loan portfolio composition on the efficiency of different types of banks in India—public sector, old private, and new private banks—in the period between 2013 and 2022. Efficiency was evaluated using data envelopment analysis (DEA). The study considered four loan variables—term lending, working capital, priority sector lending, and secured lending in proportion to the overall loans—as independent factors against the efficiency score as the dependent variable, using a random-effects generalized least squares (GLS) regression framework. The results indicate that there were no significant effects on the efficiency of old private banks, except for working capital, which had a marginally negative impact on bank efficiency. Working capital, priority sector lending, and term lending have been found to significantly impact the efficiency of new private banks. Only term and working capital loans significantly affected the efficiency of public sector banks. Full article

This study examines the complex relation among environmental taxes, productive capacities, urbanization, and their collective effects on environmental quality in Africa, drawing on two decades of data from twenty African countries. It situates the study within the broader discourse on sustainable development and economic growth, emphasizing the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) framework to examine the relationship between economic development, characterized by urban expansion and increased productive capacities, and the adoption of environmental taxes amidst the continent’s diverse economic and environmental environments. Using advanced econometric techniques, including the Cross-Section Augmented Autoregressive Distributed Lag (CS-ARDL) model and the Dynamic Common Correlated Effects Mean Group (DCCEMG) estimator, the study addresses data challenges such as cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity. The results provide important insights into the dynamics of environmental quality in relation to economic and urban growth and the role of environmental taxation. The study proposes tailored policy strategies aimed at strengthening sustainable development initiatives in line with international agreements such as the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals. These strategies advocate for a nuanced application of environmental taxes and the promotion of productive capacities to enhance environmental sustainability across the African continent. Full article

This study examines the intricate relationship between natural resource abundance, with a specific focus on oil production, and its impact on economic growth in Ghana. Through the application of the robust Fully Modified OLS methodology and using data spanned from 1960–2021 the research underscores the essential inclusion of oil as a significant variable in comprehending economic growth dynamics. Contrary to traditional resource curse theories, the study unveils a positive nexus between oil production and economic growth, particularly within a comprehensive variable framework. This finding challenges simplistic resource curse notions and underscores the need for a holistic economic perspective. Overall, the results show that the impact of oil production on economic growth is sensitive to the inclusion or exclusion of other variables in the model. In Model 1, where all variables are included, oil production has a significant positive (0.0112**) impact on growth. Ghana’s success in avoiding the resource curse is attributed to a multifaceted strategy encompassing diversified economic approaches, transparent governance, and responsible oil revenue management. Importantly, the inclusion of oil as a pivotal variable is well-justified by its tangible contributions to economic growth. The observed positive impacts emphasize the benefits of harnessing oil resources while maintaining a holistic view of the broader economic context. Looking ahead, the insights inform policymakers in resource-rich nations, illustrating how strategic resource management—illustrated by oil—can drive resilient and comprehensive economic growth. Ghana’s experience serves as a compelling template for informed policy decisions, offering valuable lessons for achieving sustainable prosperity. Full article

Corruption poses a significant challenge to economic development and governance worldwide, with its detrimental effects permeating various levels of society. In the context of Greece, where corruption has been a longstanding issue, the role of internal audit mechanisms within local government organizations (LGOs) emerges as paramount. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the internal control landscape within LGO revenue departments, focusing on factors influencing its effectiveness and proposing strategies for improvement. Drawing upon survey data and regression analyses, this study highlights the crucial role of robust internal control mechanisms in combating corruption and fostering economic development. The findings underscore the importance of competent personnel, legislative compliance, interdepartmental collaboration, and technology utilization in enhancing internal control practices. Despite existing legislation, gaps in internal control implementation persist, including understaffing, inadequate procedures, and limited access to information. This study emphasizes the transformative potential of effective internal audit measures in mitigating corruption at the local level, thereby contributing to broader economic growth and societal well-being. Recommendations for strengthening the internal control structures within LGOs include the formal establishment of internal audit functions, adherence to professional standards, and the promotion of information system utilization. By addressing the corruption and inefficiencies within LGOs, this research underscores the pivotal role of institutional effectiveness in promoting transparency, accountability, and sustainable economic progress. Full article

The financial markets, shaped by dynamic forces, including macroeconomic trends and technological advancements, are influenced by a multitude of factors impacting the S&P 500 stock index, a pivotal indicator in the US equity markets. This paper highlights the significance of understanding the exogenous variables affecting the index’s profitability for academics, portfolio managers, and investment professionals. Amid the global ramifications of the S&P 500, particularly in combating the eroding purchasing power caused by inflation, investing in stock indexes emerges as a means to safeguard wealth. The study employs various statistical techniques, emphasizing a methodical approach to uncover influential variables, and using static regression and autoregressive models for immediate and time-lagged effects. In conclusion, the findings have broad practical implications beyond investment strategy, extending to portfolio construction and risk management. Acknowledging inherent uncertainties in financial market forecasts, future research endeavors should target long-term trends, specific influences, and the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on index evolution. Collaboration across regulatory bodies, academia, and the financial industry is underscored, holding the potential for effective risk monitoring and bolstering overall economic and financial market stability. This research serves as a foundational step towards enhancing market understanding and facilitating more efficient investment decision-making approaches. Full article

This study examines the critical interplay between institutional and cultural backgrounds and their collective impact on economic development, suggesting that their synchronized evolution—timing, pace, and direction—boosts economic development, while misalignment hinders it. It seeks to determine if these backgrounds complement or substitute each other in fostering economic development. The analysis employs an unbalanced panel dataset encompassing 113 countries across four decades (1980–2019) through a fixed-effects model enhanced by robustness checks (adding control variables, using alternative analysis methods, and applying adjustment criteria). The analysis uncovers a synergistic relationship between institutional and cultural backgrounds in which each element reinforces the other’s impact on economic development. Countries with robust institutional and cultural backgrounds exhibit the highest levels of economic development, whereas those with weaker backgrounds experience diminished economic progress. This study further reveals that the influence of institutional background on economic development is more pronounced than that of cultural background. However, this effect is significantly amplified when both institutional and cultural backgrounds are considered. Considering these insights, this study recommends that effective development strategies prioritize simultaneously nurturing institutional and cultural backgrounds. This approach is essential for crafting a successful and comprehensive development roadmap. Full article

In this research, the intertemporal optimal management of subsidies offered by the environmental regulator and the dynamic conflict between two groups of economic agents involved in environmental quality are discussed. First the environmental model is examined in its optimal control management form with two state variables. The analysis of the improved model, inspecting the social planner’s decision (policy) variable, the variable which influences not only environmental quality but the national budget stock, reveals that is dependent on the growth of the national budget stock. A negative growth rate leads to the long run saddle point equilibrium, while an incremental growth rate, but less than the model’s discount rate, leads to an interesting complicated limit cycle equilibrium, for which under certain parameter values the orbit’s phase portrait can be drawn. For the dynamic game model between the social planner and natural resource exploiters, the equilibrium conditions are examined. It is rather a richer than the point equilibrium for which the cyclical strategies have great importance. Therefore, the conditions for that rich equilibrium are found. As a continuation, the paper concludes that the equilibrium condition is that the players’ discount rates are both greater than the national budget interest rate. Finally, the certain values of the equilibrium strategies and national budget stock are provided. Full article