Evaluation of a Sugarcane (Saccharum spp.) Hybrid F₁ Population Phenotypic Diversity and Construction of a Rapid Sucrose Yield Estimation Model for Breeding

Sugarcane is the major sugar-producing crop worldwide, and hybrid F₁ populations are the primary populations used in breeding. Challenged by the sugarcane genome’s complexity and the sucrose yield’s quantitative nature, phenotypic selection is still the most commonly used approach for high-sucrose yield sugarcane breeding. In this study, a hybrid F₁ population containing 135 hybrids was constructed and evaluated for 11 traits (sucrose yield (SY) and its related traits) in a randomized complete-block design during two consecutive growing seasons. The results revealed that all the traits exhibited distinct variation, with the coefficient of variation (CV) ranging from 0.09 to 0.35, the Shannon-Wiener diversity index (H′) ranging between 2.64 and 2.98, and the broad-sense heritability ranging from 0.75 to 0.84. Correlation analysis revealed complex correlations between the traits, with 30 trait pairs being significantly correlated. Eight traits, including stalk number (SN), stalk diameter (SD), internode length (IL), stalk height (SH), stalk weight (SW), Brix (B), sucrose content (SC), and yield (Y), were significantly positively correlated with sucrose yield (SY). Cluster analysis based on the 11 traits divided the 135 F₁ hybrids into three groups, with 55 hybrids in Group I, 69 hybrids in Group II, and 11 hybrids in Group III. The principal component analysis indicated that the values of the first four major components’ vectors were greater than 1 and the cumulative contribution rate reached 80.93%. Based on the main component values of all samples, 24 F₁ genotypes had greater values than the high-yielding parent ‘ROC22’ and were selected for the next breeding stage. A rapid sucrose yield estimation equation was established using four easily measured sucrose yield-related traits through multivariable linear stepwise regression. The model was subsequently confirmed using 26 sugarcane cultivars and 24 F₁ hybrids. This study concludes that the sugarcane F₁ population holds great genetic diversity in sucrose yield-related traits. The sucrose yield estimation model, $y_{SY}=2.01x_{SN}+8.32x_{SD}+0.79x_B+3.44x_{SH}-47.64$, can aid to breed sugarcane varieties with high sucrose yield.