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Atmosphere, Volume 10, Issue 12 (December 2019) – 92 articles
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Cover Story (view full-size image) Late-spring severe blizzards are crucially important due to agricultural damages and economic loss, [...] Read more. Late-spring severe blizzards are crucially important due to agricultural damages and economic loss, with long-term consequences. The predictability of their occurrence, intensity, and location are challenging issues. Recent analysis emphasizes a development mechanism based on the coupled contribution of tropospheric ageostrophic circulations associated to jet streaks. These circulations: (1) interact under local and regional forcing (sea surface temperature, topography, and latent heat) and (2) feedback on enhancing an upper-level jet’s secondary streak, leading to a persistent, severe event. The enhanced secondary jet streak appears for severe events, as shown by 40 years of knowledge of late-spring severe blizzards over the area. Understanding the preconditioning indicated by this analysis could be useful in operational forecast analysis. View this paper.