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Open AccessArticle

Late-Spring Severe Blizzard Events over Eastern Romania: A Conceptual Model of Development

1
Weather Forecasting National Center, National Meteorological Administration, Bucuresti-Ploiesti Ave., No. 97, 013686 Bucharest, Romania
2
Faculty of Physics, University of Bucharest, P.O. Box MG 11 Magurele, 077125 Bucharest, Romania
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Atmosphere 2019, 10(12), 770; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10120770
Received: 5 November 2019 / Revised: 26 November 2019 / Accepted: 27 November 2019 / Published: 3 December 2019
(This article belongs to the Special Issue 10th Anniversary of Atmosphere: Climatology and Meteorology)
In this paper, the mechanism and model-representation of a late-spring severe blizzard event on eastern Romania are studied. The mechanism relies on the coupled contribution of the tropospheric ageostrophic circulations associated to jet streaks. These circulations: (1) interact under local and regional forcing (sea surface temperature, topography and latent heat) and (2) feedback on enhancing an upper-level jet’s secondary streak, leading to a persistent, severe event. The enhanced secondary jet streak appears only for developing systems that lead to extreme impact, as shown by 40 years of knowledge of late-spring severe blizzards over the area. It is shown that actual regional high-resolution models are able to represent the occurrence and the mechanism of late-spring severe blizzard events, thus increasing the confidence on their ability to represent current and future climate extreme variability. Understanding the preconditioning of dynamic and thermodynamic processes indicated by this analysis could be useful in supporting the operational forecast analysis.
Keywords: blizzard; severe event; jet streak; conceptual model; climatology blizzard; severe event; jet streak; conceptual model; climatology
MDPI and ACS Style

Caian, M.; Andrei, M.D. Late-Spring Severe Blizzard Events over Eastern Romania: A Conceptual Model of Development. Atmosphere 2019, 10, 770.

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