Forecasting Sea Surface Cooling During Typhoons Based on Machine Learning

Sea surface cooling (SSC) induced by typhoons has a significant impact on typhoon intensity and regional air–sea interaction. This study develops a machine learning model based on a multilayer perceptron (MLP) to predict SSC during typhoon passage over the western North Pacific. The model uses pre-typhoon ocean background conditions and ocean states at the typhoon peak moment as inputs, including wind field, sea level anomaly (SLA), mixed layer depth (MLD), and 100 m water temperature. Trained on historical typhoon data and multi-source ocean observations from 2002 to 2018, the model directly predicts SSC during typhoon events from 2019 to 2020. Results show that the model achieves a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.379 °C, a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.488 °C, and a bias of 0.087 °C. The model reproduces the typical rightward bias in SSC spatial distribution. Under normal ocean conditions, such as open deep-water areas with moderate stratification and no strong eddy interference, the model performs well, with errors below 0.1 °C at some points. Although some biases exist under complex ocean environments and abrupt changes in typhoon dynamics, the model still captures the overall cooling trend. This study demonstrates the feasibility of machine learning for typhoon–ocean interaction forecasting. The proposed framework can provide technical support for typhoon intensity forecasting, marine disaster warning, and aquaculture risk prevention.