Abstract
Arid inland river basins are ecologically fragile zones where habitat status is jointly shaped by anthropogenic land use interference and water-resource constraints; however, the combined effects of land use change and multi-scale hydrological conditions on habitat quality remain insufficiently understood. Taking the Kaidu–Kongque River Basin (KKRB) in northwest China as the study area, this study adopted 30 m CLCD land-cover datasets and a localized-parameter improved InVEST model to investigate habitat-quality dynamics from 2000 to 2023, combined with the PLUS model for multi-scenario simulation. Results revealed prominent “productive-land expansion and ecological-land contraction”: cultivated land increased by 36.2% and construction land expanded 10.3-fold, mainly encroaching on grassland, forming a typical “upstream improvement-downstream degradation” spatial pattern of habitat quality. Based on correlation analysis, we identified cross-scale ecohydrological coupling characteristics: meteorological water deficit exhibited a strong linear correlation with habitat quality at the basin scale, while surface soil moisture displayed an inverted-U-shaped non-linear trade-off relationship with habitat quality at local scales, jointly mediating spatial heterogeneity of habitat quality in this arid basin. Future scenario simulations indicated that only the Ecological Protection Scenario could substantially reverse degradation, with mean habitat quality projected to increase by 21.3% by 2035 relative to the natural-development scenario. This study clarifies how land use alteration and multi-scale water constraints jointly shape habitat-quality patterns, providing scientific support for land use optimization and ecological restoration in arid inland watersheds.