Abstract
The sustainable transformation of manufacturing industries requires a better understanding of risk linkages between high-carbon and low-carbon sectors, particularly under changing low-carbon policy conditions. This paper employs the TVP-VAR-BK model and the frequency-domain spillover method to systematically investigate the risk spillover characteristics and evolutionary patterns between high-carbon and low-carbon manufacturing industries from both dynamic and static dimensions. On this basis, a low-carbon policy uncertainty index (LCPU) is constructed, and the TVP-SV-VAR model is further applied to investigate the dynamic responses of risk spillovers between high-carbon and low-carbon manufacturing industries to LCPU shocks. The results show that: (1) Risk linkages exist between high-carbon and low-carbon manufacturing industries and exhibit a hierarchical pattern along the industrial chain. In terms of overall risk spillovers, the Chemical Industry (CH) and the four low-carbon manufacturing industries act as net risk transmitters within the system, while the other three high-carbon manufacturing industries mainly serve as net risk receivers. (2) Risk spillovers between high-carbon and low-carbon manufacturing industries are predominantly short-term. In the short term, the Chemical Industry (CH) exhibits a strong net risk transmission effect, whereas in the long term, all four low-carbon manufacturing industries act as net risk transmitters. (3) There is a pronounced dynamic relationship between changes in low-carbon policy uncertainty and risk linkages across manufacturing industries. The effects of LCPU shocks are concentrated primarily in the short term and decay rapidly as the forecast horizon increases. Moreover, high-carbon and low-carbon manufacturing industries differ in both the magnitude of their responses and their dynamic response paths, exhibiting clear time-varying characteristics and industry heterogeneity. These findings provide empirical evidence for improving cross-industry risk management and enhancing policy coordination, offering practical implications for maintaining industrial stability and supporting sustainable manufacturing transformation.