Carbon Emission Reduction Drivers and Decoupling Effects in the Transport Industry of the Yangtze River Delta Region

Against the backdrop of global warming, China has set forth its ‘dual carbon’ goals, striving to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. As a vital engine of economic development, the Yangtze River Delta region has formulated implementation plans, prioritizing carbon emission reduction. The transport industry, a major source of carbon emissions, plays a crucial role through its transition to clean energy, making it pivotal for advancing regional carbon neutrality. This study categorizes carbon emission drivers based on an assessment of current emissions and dynamic evolution analysis, integrating policy evolution and technological innovation trajectories. These drivers are classified into: transport structure, transport intensity, energy intensity, year-end resident population, per capita GDP, and industrial structure. Using the extended STIRPAT-Ridge model, quantitative analysis of carbon emission drivers is conducted. Employing the Tapio decoupling model, the decoupling state between carbon emissions and economic growth is deconstructed. Empirical findings reveal that carbon emissions from the transport industry in the Yangtze River Delta are influenced by multiple factors, with year-end resident population and industrial structure emerging as primary drivers. The decoupling between carbon emissions and economic growth exhibits fluctuating characteristics, but has been progressively strengthened in recent years by government policy initiatives and market mechanisms.