Impact of Cannabis and Cannabis Legalization on US Atrial Septal Defect Rates
Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Methods
2.1. Data
2.1.1. Congenital Anomalies
2.1.2. Drugs
2.1.3. Others
2.1.4. Derived Variables
2.2. Data Analysis
2.3. Causal Inference
2.4. Ethics Approval
2.5. Generative Artificial Intelligence
2.6. Data Availability
3. Results
3.1. ASD Rates
3.2. Bifurcation of ASD Rates
3.3. Substance Use
3.4. ASDR over Time vs. ASDR by Cannabis Exposure
3.5. Multivariate Modeling
3.5.1. Mixed-Effects Models
3.5.2. Survey Regression Models
3.6. Legal Status
3.7. Effect Sizes
3.8. Within- and Between-States Mixed-Effects Modeling
3.9. Sensitivity Analysis
3.10. Variance Inflation Factors
4. Discussion
4.1. Main Results
4.2. Interpretation
4.3. Literature Review
4.4. Cellular and Molecular Mechanisms
4.4.1. Morphological Cardiogenesis
4.4.2. Cardiogenic Morphogens
4.4.3. Cardiogenic Epigenomics
4.5. Strength of Association
4.6. Generalizability
4.7. Comparisons to Known Teratogens
4.8. Strengths and Limitations
5. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
| AIC | Akaike Information Criterion |
| alcmon | Alcohol use in the past year |
| anlyr | Analgesic misuse in the past year |
| ASD | Atrial septal defect, secundum type |
| ASDR | Atrial septal defect rate |
| audyr | Alcohol use disorder in the past year |
| BIC | Bayesian Information Criterion |
| bngalc | Binge alcohol use in the past year |
| BMP | Bone morphogenetic proteins |
| CBG | Cannabigerol |
| CENPN | Centrosomal Protein N |
| C.I. | Confidence Interval |
| cigmon | Cigarette use in the past month |
| COUP-TF II | Chicken Ovalbumin Upstream Promoter Transcription Factor II |
| CRAN | Central R Archive Network |
| cocyr | Cocaine use in the past year |
| EDF | Estimated degrees of freedom |
| EWAS | Epigenome-wide association study |
| E-Value | Expected value |
| Δ9THC | Δ9-tetrahydrocannabinol |
| GATA | GATA transcription factor family |
| Hispanic | Hispanic |
| IQR | Interquartile Range |
| logLik | Log Likelihood ratio at model maximization |
| GLI3 | Gli family zinc finger 3 |
| MEF2 | Myocyte Enhancer Factor 2 |
| MEGF8 | Multiple EGF-like domains 8 |
| mgcv | Mixed Gam Computation Vehicle |
| mrjmon | Cannabis use in the past month |
| NBDPN | National Birth Defect Prevention Network |
| NHWhite | Non-Hispanic White |
| NHBlack | Non-Hispanic Black |
| NHAIAN | Non-Hispanic American Indian Alaskan Native |
| NHAsPI | Non-Hispanic Asian/Pacific Islander |
| NKX2 | NK2 Homeobox 2 |
| NSDUH | National Survey of Drug Use and Health |
| Overall | Overall or total of all races combined |
| PCE | Prenatal Cannabis Exposure |
| SAMHSA | Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration |
| SD | Standard deviation |
| SEM | Standard error of the mean |
| SHH | Sonic hedgehog |
| TBX | T-box transcription factor family |
| TMEM107 | Transmembrane protein 107 |
| VEGF | Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor |
| VIF | Variance inflation factor |
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| Covariate | High | Low | ∆SMD | p-Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sample Size (N) | 426 | 1456 | ||
| ASD Rate (median [IQR]) | 88.60 [27.58, 141.95] | 44.11 [24.72, 85.50] | 0.4042 | <0.001 |
| Log (ASD Rate) (median [IQR]) | 4.48 [3.32, 4.96] | 3.79 [3.21, 4.45] | 0.4456 | <0.001 |
| Numbers Atrial Septal Defect (total) | 72,513 | 334,380 | 0.5567 | <0.001 |
| Births (total) | 7,010,509 | 58,607,743 | 0.2286 | <0.001 |
| Cigarettes, Monthly (median [IQR]) | 0.24 [0.22, 0.26] | 0.25 [0.23, 0.29] | 0.4679 | <0.001 |
| Alcohol, Monthly (median [IQR]) | 0.63 [0.59, 0.66] | 0.54 [0.48, 0.59] | 1.4531 | <0.001 |
| Alcoholism (median [IQR]) | 0.08 [0.07, 0.09] | 0.07 [0.06, 0.08] | 0.9286 | <0.001 |
| Binge Alcohol (median [IQR]) | 0.27 [0.25, 0.28] | 0.24 [0.22, 0.26] | 0.8030 | <0.001 |
| Cannabis, Monthly (median [IQR]) | 0.11 [0.08, 0.13] | 0.06 [0.05, 0.07] | 2.0446 | <0.001 |
| Analgesics, Annual (median [IQR]) | 0.05 [0.04, 0.05] | 0.04 [0.04, 0.05] | 0.4807 | <0.001 |
| Cocaine, Annual (median [IQR]) | 0.02 [0.02, 0.03] | 0.02 [0.01, 0.02] | 1.0907 | <0.001 |
| ∆9THC Content (median [IQR]) | 13.40 [9.58, 14.60] | 12.30 [8.76, 14.10] | 0.1858 | 0.001 |
| Cannabidiol (median [IQR]) | 0.28 [0.17, 0.46] | 0.28 [0.20, 0.46] | 0.1923 | 0.423 |
| Cannabigerol (median [IQR]) | 0.43 [0.40, 0.47] | 0.43 [0.40, 0.46] | 0.1657 | 0.002 |
| Cannabinol (median [IQR]) | 0.56 [0.38, 0.65] | 0.45 [0.37, 0.63] | 0.1980 | <0.001 |
| Cannabichromene (median [IQR]) | 0.25 [0.24, 0.27] | 0.24 [0.24, 0.26] | 0.1179 | 0.196 |
| Tetrahydrocannabivarin (median [IQR]) | 0.09 [0.09, 0.10] | 0.09 [0.09, 0.10] | 0.1514 | 0.041 |
| ∆9THC * Cannabis, Monthly (median [IQR]) | 1.30 [0.87, 1.81] | 0.65 [0.49, 0.90] | 1.3607 | <0.001 |
| Median Income (median [IQR]) | 55,928.00 [51,258.50, 60,934.00] | 49,047.00 [43,307.00, 56,134.00] | 0.7464 | <0.001 |
| Ethnic Cigarette Exposure (median [IQR]) | 0.23 [0.18, 0.27] | 0.24 [0.17, 0.29] | 0.1087 | 0.025 |
| Ethnic Analgesic Exposure (median [IQR]) | 0.08 [0.07, 0.09] | 0.07 [0.05, 0.08] | 0.3168 | <0.001 |
| Ethnic Binge Alcohol (median [IQR]) | 0.25 [0.22, 0.27] | 0.22 [0.18, 0.25] | 0.2997 | <0.001 |
| Ethnic Cannabis Exposure (median [IQR]) | 0.10 [0.07, 0.13] | 0.06 [0.04, 0.07] | 1.1870 | <0.001 |
| Ethnic Analgesic Exposure (median [IQR]) | 0.04 [0.03, 0.05] | 0.04 [0.03, 0.05] | 0.2767 | <0.001 |
| Ethnic Cocaine Exposure (median [IQR]) | 0.02 [0.02, 0.03] | 0.02 [0.01, 0.02] | 0.6115 | <0.001 |
| Legal Status of Cannabis (%) | 4.48 [3.32, 4.96] | 3.79 [3.21, 4.45] | 0.4456 | <0.001 |
| Medical | 269 (63.1) | 177 (12.2) | <0.001 | |
| Legal | 64 (15.0) | 5 (0.3) | ||
| Illegal | 63 (14.8) | 1106 (76.0) | ||
| Decriminalized | 30 (7.0) | 168 (11.5) | ||
| Number Illegal (%) | 63 (14.8) | 1106 (76.0) | 1.5573 | <0.001 |
| Number Legal (%) | 64 (15.0) | 5 (0.3) | 0.5734 | <0.001 |
| Parameter | Model | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parameter | Estimate (C.I.) | p-Value | Metric | Value |
| Additive in Drugs | ||||
| ASD ~ Cigarettes + Cannabis + Bnge.Alcohol + Analgesics + Cocaine | ||||
| Cigarettes | 4.04 (2.25, 5.83) | <0.001 | AIC | 3305 |
| LM.Cannabis | 0.70 (0.52, 0.88) | <0.001 | BIC | 3344 |
| Analgesics | −0.61 (−0.87, −0.35) | <0.001 | LogLik | −1646 |
| Cocaine | −0.13 (−0.25, −0.01) | 0.038 | S.D. | 3.850 |
| Additive in Drugs and Income | ||||
| ASD ~ Cigarettes + Cannabis + Bnge.Alcohol + Analgesics + Cocaine + Med.Income | ||||
| Cigarettes | 4.86 (2.99, 6.73) | <0.001 | AIC | 3294 |
| LM.Cannabis | 0.59 (0.39, 0.79) | <0.001 | BIC | 3338 |
| Bng.Alcohol | −2.75 (−5.10, −0.40) | 0.023 | LogLik | −1639 |
| Analgesics | −0.53 (−0.79, −0.27) | <0.001 | S.D. | 3.840 |
| Median.Income | 0.75 (0.27, 1.23) | 0.002 | ||
| Additive in Drugs, Income and Race | ||||
| ASD ~ Cigarettes + Cannabis + Bnge.Alcohol+ Analgesics + Cocaine + Med.Income + Race | ||||
| Cigarettes | 4.96 (3.15, 6.77) | <0.001 | AIC | 3163 |
| LM.Cannabis | 0.63 (0.44, 0.82) | <0.001 | BIC | 3241 |
| Bng.Alcohol | −2.51 (−4.78, −0.24) | <0.001 | LogLik | −1568 |
| Analgesics | −0.48 (−0.73, −0.22) | <0.001 | S.D. | 3.670 |
| Cocaine | −0.13 (−0.25, −0.01) | 0.038 | ||
| Median.Income | 0.75 (0.29, 1.20) | 0.001 | ||
| Race.Hispanic | 0.21 (0.13, 0.29) | <0.001 | ||
| Race.NHAIAN | 0.42 (0.33, 0.51) | <0.001 | ||
| Race.NHBlack | 0.47 (0.39, 0.55) | <0.001 | ||
| Race.NHWhite | 0.15 (0.07, 0.23) | <0.001 | ||
| Race.Total | 0.24 (0.16, 0.32) | <0.001 | ||
| Interactive–Unweighted | ||||
| Interactive in Drugs + Income and Race: Cannabis Interaction | ||||
| ASD ~ eCigarettes * eCannabis + eBnge.Alcohol + eAnalgesics + eCocaine + Med.Income + Race + Race: Cannabis | ||||
| eCigarettes | 0.16 (0.07, 0.25) | <0.001 | AIC | 1805 |
| eCannabis | 0.48 (0.37, 0.59) | <0.001 | BIC | 1910 |
| eBng.Alcohol | −0.10 (−0.18, −0.02) | 0.0143 | LogLik | −884 |
| eCocaine | −0.11 (−0.15, −0.07) | <0.001 | S.D. | 0.361 |
| Median.Income | 0.08 (0.02, 0.14) | 0.0089 | ||
| Race.NHAIAN | −0.35 (−0.50, −0.19) | <0.001 | ||
| Race.NHAsPI | 0.55 (0.13, 0.97) | 0.010 | ||
| Race.NHBlack | −0.18 (−0.28, −0.07) | 0.001 | ||
| Race.NHWhite | −0.30 (−0.40, −0.20) | <0.001 | ||
| Race.Total | −0.23 (−0.31, −0.14) | 2.12 × 10−7 | ||
| eCigarettes: eCannabis | 0.12 (0.03, 0.21) | <0.001 | ||
| eCannabis: Race.NHAIAN | −0.21 (−0.37, −0.05) | 0.010 | ||
| eCannabis: Race.NHAsPI | 0.53 (0.18, 0.88) | 0.003 | ||
| eCannabis: Race.NHBlack | −0.23 (−0.33, −0.12) | <0.001 | ||
| eCannabis: Race.NHWhite | −0.25 (−0.37, −0.13) | <0.001 | ||
| eCannabis: Race.Total | −0.18 (−0.29, −0.07) | 0.001 | ||
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Reece, A.S.; Hulse, G.K. Impact of Cannabis and Cannabis Legalization on US Atrial Septal Defect Rates. J. Xenobiotics 2026, 16, 43. https://doi.org/10.3390/jox16020043
Reece AS, Hulse GK. Impact of Cannabis and Cannabis Legalization on US Atrial Septal Defect Rates. Journal of Xenobiotics. 2026; 16(2):43. https://doi.org/10.3390/jox16020043
Chicago/Turabian StyleReece, Albert Stuart, and Gary Kenneth Hulse. 2026. "Impact of Cannabis and Cannabis Legalization on US Atrial Septal Defect Rates" Journal of Xenobiotics 16, no. 2: 43. https://doi.org/10.3390/jox16020043
APA StyleReece, A. S., & Hulse, G. K. (2026). Impact of Cannabis and Cannabis Legalization on US Atrial Septal Defect Rates. Journal of Xenobiotics, 16(2), 43. https://doi.org/10.3390/jox16020043
