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Volume 13
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10.3390/f13020257
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Article

Prediction of Suitable Distribution of a Critically Endangered Plant Glyptostrobus pensilis

by
Xingzhuang Ye
1,
Mingzhu Zhang
1,
Qianyue Yang
1,
Liqi Ye
1,
Yipeng Liu
1,
Guofang Zhang
1,
Shipin Chen
1,
Wenfeng Lai
1,
Guowei Wen
1,
Shiqun Zheng
1,
Shaoning Ruan
1,
Tianyu Zhang
2 and
Bao Liu
1,*
1
Forestry College, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002, China
2
Shunchang County Forestry Science and Technology Center of Fujian Province, Shunchang 353200, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Forests 2022, 13(2), 257; https://doi.org/10.3390/f13020257
Submission received: 15 October 2021 / Revised: 1 February 2022 / Accepted: 3 February 2022 / Published: 7 February 2022
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impact of Climate Change on Biome Distributions in Forests)
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Abstract

Glyptostrobus pensilis is a critically endangered living fossil plant species of the Mesozoic era, with high scientific research and economic value. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of climate change on the potential habitat area of G. pensilis in East Asia. The MaxEnt (maximum entropy) model optimized by the ENMeval data package was used to simulate the potential distribution habitats of G. pensilis since the last interglacial period (LIG, 120–140 ka). The results showed that the optimized MaxEnt model has a high prediction accuracy with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.9843 ± 0.005. The Current highly suitable habitats were found in the Northeast Jiangxi, Eastern Fujian and Eastern Guangdong; the main climatic factors affecting the geographic distribution of G. pensilis are temperature and precipitation, with precipitation as the temperature factor. The minimum temperature of coldest month (Bio6) may be the key factor restricting the northward distribution of G. pensilis; during the LIG, it contracted greatly in the highly suitable habitat area. Mean Diurnal Range (Bio2), Minimum Temperature of Coldest Month (Bio6), Annual Precipitation (Bio12) and Mean Temperature of Driest Quarter (Bio9) may be important climatic factors causing the changes in geographic distribution. In the next four periods, the suitable areas all migrated southward. Except for the RCP2.6-2070s, the highly suitable areas in the other three periods showed varying degrees of shrinkage. The results will provide a theoretical basis for the management and resource protection of G. pensilis.
Keywords: Glyptostrobus pensilis; MaxEnt; climate change; spatial pattern; migration trend Glyptostrobus pensilis; MaxEnt; climate change; spatial pattern; migration trend

Share and Cite

MDPI and ACS Style

Ye, X.; Zhang, M.; Yang, Q.; Ye, L.; Liu, Y.; Zhang, G.; Chen, S.; Lai, W.; Wen, G.; Zheng, S.; et al. Prediction of Suitable Distribution of a Critically Endangered Plant Glyptostrobus pensilis. Forests 2022, 13, 257. https://doi.org/10.3390/f13020257

AMA Style

Ye X, Zhang M, Yang Q, Ye L, Liu Y, Zhang G, Chen S, Lai W, Wen G, Zheng S, et al. Prediction of Suitable Distribution of a Critically Endangered Plant Glyptostrobus pensilis. Forests. 2022; 13(2):257. https://doi.org/10.3390/f13020257

Chicago/Turabian Style

Ye, Xingzhuang, Mingzhu Zhang, Qianyue Yang, Liqi Ye, Yipeng Liu, Guofang Zhang, Shipin Chen, Wenfeng Lai, Guowei Wen, Shiqun Zheng, and et al. 2022. "Prediction of Suitable Distribution of a Critically Endangered Plant Glyptostrobus pensilis" Forests 13, no. 2: 257. https://doi.org/10.3390/f13020257

APA Style

Ye, X., Zhang, M., Yang, Q., Ye, L., Liu, Y., Zhang, G., Chen, S., Lai, W., Wen, G., Zheng, S., Ruan, S., Zhang, T., & Liu, B. (2022). Prediction of Suitable Distribution of a Critically Endangered Plant Glyptostrobus pensilis. Forests, 13(2), 257. https://doi.org/10.3390/f13020257

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