Next Article in Journal
The Effect of Exposure to Persistent Organic Pollutants on Metabolic Health among KOREAN Children during a 1-Year Follow-Up
Next Article in Special Issue
Spatial Patterns of Heat-Related Cardiovascular Mortality in the Czech Republic
Previous Article in Journal
Reduction of Endogenous Melatonin Accelerates Cognitive Decline in Mice in a Simulated Occupational Formaldehyde Exposure Environment
Previous Article in Special Issue
Effect of Climate Factors on the Childhood Pneumonia in Papua New Guinea: A Time-Series Analysis
 
Search for Articles:
Title / Keyword
Author / Affiliation
Journal
Article Type
 
 
Advanced Search
 
Section
Special Issue
Volume
Issue
Number
Page
Journals
IJERPH
Volume 13
Issue 3
10.3390/ijerph13030267
ijerph-logo
Submit to this Journal Review for this Journal Edit a Special Issue
► Article Menu

Article Menu

share announcement thumb_up
...
textsms
...
Article

Evaluating the Appropriateness of Downscaled Climate Information for Projecting Risks of Salmonella

by
Galina S. Guentchev
1,*,
Richard B. Rood
2,
Caspar M. Ammann
1,
Joseph J. Barsugli
3,
Kristie Ebi
4,
Veronica Berrocal
5,
Marie S. O’Neill
6,
Carina J. Gronlund
6,
Jonathan L. Vigh
7,
Ben Koziol
3 and
Luca Cinquini
8
1
National Climate Predictions and Projections platform (NCPP), NCAR RAL CSAP, 3450 Mitchell Lane, Boulder, CO 80301, USA
2
Department Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences, University of Michigan, 525 Space Research Building, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-2143, USA
3
CIRES—NOAA/University of Colorado, 325 Broadway, Boulder, CO 80305-3328, USA
4
Department of Global Health, School of Public Health, University of Washington, 1959 NE Pacific Street, Health Sciences Building, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
5
Department of Biostatistics, University of Michigan School of Public Health, 1415 Washington Heights, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-2029, USA
6
Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan School of Public Health, 1415 Washington Heights, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-2029, USA
7
NCAR JNT RAL, 3450 Mitchell Lane, Boulder, CO 80301, USA
8
NESII—NOAA/ESRL, 325 Broadway, Boulder, CO 80305-3328, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Jan C. Semenza
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2016, 13(3), 267; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph13030267
Received: 19 August 2015 / Revised: 7 February 2016 / Accepted: 17 February 2016 / Published: 29 February 2016
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change and Human Health)
View Full-Text Download PDF
Browse Figures

Abstract

Foodborne diseases have large economic and societal impacts worldwide. To evaluate how the risks of foodborne diseases might change in response to climate change, credible and usable climate information tailored to the specific application question is needed. Global Climate Model (GCM) data generally need to, both, be downscaled to the scales of the application to be usable, and represent, well, the key characteristics that inflict health impacts. This study presents an evaluation of temperature-based heat indices for the Washington D.C. area derived from statistically downscaled GCM simulations for 1971–2000—a necessary step in establishing the credibility of these data. The indices approximate high weekly mean temperatures linked previously to occurrences of Salmonella infections. Due to bias-correction, included in the Asynchronous Regional Regression Model (ARRM) and the Bias Correction Constructed Analogs (BCCA) downscaling methods, the observed 30-year means of the heat indices were reproduced reasonably well. In April and May, however, some of the statistically downscaled data misrepresent the increase in the number of hot days towards the summer months. This study demonstrates the dependence of the outcomes to the selection of downscaled climate data and the potential for misinterpretation of future estimates of Salmonella infections. View Full-Text
Keywords: foodborne disease; Salmonella infections; evaluation; temperature-based heat indices; ARRM and BCCA statistical downscaling methods; Washington D.C. foodborne disease; Salmonella infections; evaluation; temperature-based heat indices; ARRM and BCCA statistical downscaling methods; Washington D.C.
►▼ Show Figures

Figure 1

This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited

Supplementary Material

SciFeed

Share and Cite

MDPI and ACS Style

Guentchev, G.S.; Rood, R.B.; Ammann, C.M.; Barsugli, J.J.; Ebi, K.; Berrocal, V.; O’Neill, M.S.; Gronlund, C.J.; Vigh, J.L.; Koziol, B.; Cinquini, L. Evaluating the Appropriateness of Downscaled Climate Information for Projecting Risks of Salmonella. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2016, 13, 267. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph13030267

AMA Style

Guentchev GS, Rood RB, Ammann CM, Barsugli JJ, Ebi K, Berrocal V, O’Neill MS, Gronlund CJ, Vigh JL, Koziol B, Cinquini L. Evaluating the Appropriateness of Downscaled Climate Information for Projecting Risks of Salmonella. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2016; 13(3):267. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph13030267

Chicago/Turabian Style

Guentchev, Galina S.; Rood, Richard B.; Ammann, Caspar M.; Barsugli, Joseph J.; Ebi, Kristie; Berrocal, Veronica; O’Neill, Marie S.; Gronlund, Carina J.; Vigh, Jonathan L.; Koziol, Ben; Cinquini, Luca. 2016. "Evaluating the Appropriateness of Downscaled Climate Information for Projecting Risks of Salmonella" Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 13, no. 3: 267. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph13030267

Find Other Styles
Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Article Metrics

Article Access Map by Country/Region

1
Search more from Scilit
 
Search
Back to TopTop