The Impact of COVID-19-Related Restrictions on the Incidence of Diaphyseal and Distal Forearm Fractures: A Retrospective Analysis

Background and Objectives: Pediatric forearm fractures are among the most common childhood injuries. COVID-19-related societal restrictions, including school closures and suspension of sports activities, altered children’s daily routines and may have influenced injury patterns. This study aimed to evaluate whether periods of stricter COVID-19 restrictions were associated with changes in the incidence of pediatric distal and diaphyseal forearm fractures after accounting for seasonal variation and long-term temporal trends. Materials and Methods: This retrospective observational time-series study analyzed pediatric patients aged 0–17 years who underwent forearm radiography between January 2018 and June 2023 at a tertiary pediatric trauma center. Cases with radiologically confirmed distal or diaphyseal forearm fractures or epiphyseal injuries were included. Monthly fracture counts were analyzed using generalized linear models with logarithmic link functions. Exposure variables included a COVID-19 restriction index based on governmental measures and a binary pandemic indicator. Seasonal variation and long-term temporal trends were included as covariates. Results: A total of 5702 forearm radiographs were identified, of which 4041 trauma-related presentations met the inclusion criteria. Among these, 2014 children had confirmed forearm fractures. Boys accounted for 61% of cases, and the median age was 9 years (IQR 5). Most fractures were treated conservatively (88%). The most frequent injury mechanisms included soccer-related injuries (9.6%) and bicycle falls (7.3%). In regression analyses adjusted for seasonal variation and temporal trends, neither the COVID-19 restriction index (IRR 1.01, 95% CI 0.87–1.17; p = 0.95) nor the pandemic period indicator (IRR 0.99, 95% CI 0.37–2.65; p = 0.98) was significantly associated with monthly fracture counts. The wide confidence interval of the pandemic indicator reflects limited statistical precision and suggests that both clinically relevant decreases and increases in fracture incidence cannot be excluded. Conclusions: No sustained long-term changes in the incidence or injury patterns of pediatric forearm fractures were observed during the COVID-19 pandemic. Temporary fluctuations during early lockdown phases were not independently associated with governmental restrictions after adjustment for seasonal variability and long-term trends.