Search Results (1,095)

Under concurrent global warming and multi-scale climate anomalies, regional precipitation has become more uneven and less stable, and extreme events occur more frequently, amplifying water scarcity and ecological risk. Focusing on mainland China, we analyze nearly 70 years of monthly station precipitation records together with eight climate drivers—the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), Arctic Oscillation (AO), surface air pressure (AP), wind speed (WS), relative humidity (RH), and surface solar radiation (SR)—and precipitation outputs from eight CMIP6 models. Using wavelet analysis and partial redundancy analysis, we systematically evaluate the qualitative relationships between climate drivers and precipitation and quantify the contribution of each driver. The results show that seasonal precipitation decreases stepwise from the southeast toward the northwest, and that stability is markedly lower in the northern arid and semi-arid regions than in the humid south, with widespread declines near the boundary between the second and third topographic steps of China. During the cold season, and in the northern arid and semi-arid zones and along the margins of the Tibetan Plateau, precipitation varies mainly with interdecadal swings of North Atlantic sea surface temperature and with the strength of polar and midlatitude circulation, and it is further amplified by variability in near-surface winds; the combined contribution reaches about 32% across the Northeast Plain, the Junggar Basin, and areas north of the Loess Plateau. During the warm season, and in the eastern and southern monsoon regions, precipitation is modulated primarily by tropical Pacific sea surface temperature and convection anomalies and by related changes in the position and strength of the subtropical high, moisture transport pathways, and relative humidity; the combined contribution is about 22% south of the Yangtze River and in adjacent areas. Our findings reveal the spatiotemporal variability of precipitation in China and its responses to multiple climate drivers and their relative contributions, providing a quantitative basis for water allocation and disaster risk management under climate change. Full article

The Arctic is warming rapidly, with atmospheric rivers (ARs) amplifying ice melt, extreme precipitation, and abrupt temperature shifts. Detecting ARs in the Arctic remains challenging, because AR detection algorithms designed for mid-latitudes perform poorly in polar regions. This study introduces a regional deep learning (DL) image segmentation model for Arctic AR detection, leveraging large-ensemble (LE) climate simulations. We analyse historical simulations from the Climate Change in the Arctic and North Atlantic Region and Impacts on the UK (CANARI) project, which provides a large, internally consistent sample of AR events at 6-hourly resolution and enables a close comparison of AR climatology across model and reanalysis data. A polar-specific, rule-based AR detection algorithm was adapted to label ARs in simulated data using multiple thresholds, providing training data for the segmentation model and supporting sensitivity analyses. U-Net-based models are trained on integrated water vapour transport, total column water vapour, and 850 hPa wind speed fields. We quantify how AR identification depends on threshold choices in the rule-based algorithm and show how these propagate to the U-Net-based models. This study represents the first use of the CANARI-LE for Arctic AR detection and introduces a unified framework combining rule-based and DL methods to evaluate model sensitivity and detection robustness. Our results demonstrate that DL segmentation achieves robust skill and eliminates the need for threshold tuning, providing a consistent and transferable framework for detecting Arctic ARs. This unified approach advances high-latitude moisture transport assessment and supports improved evaluation of Arctic extremes under climate change. Full article

Benthic δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C values, as well as the mean grain size (MS) of sortable silt (SS), were used to construct the records of deep-water ventilation during the last 300 ka, at core GC02. This core is located at 4430 m water depth on the Madagascar basin near the Southwest Indian Ocean mid-ridge (SWIR). Decreased values of MS of SS reveal a weakened Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) in the glacial periods, while increased values indicate enhanced AABW in the interglacial periods. The MS of SS record in GC02 exhibited a particularly good synchronization with a record based on the δ¹³C gradient between the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific Ocean, indicating that AABW is dominated by the overturning strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), and showed a higher generation rate in the early stages of the glacial periods. A rapid reduction in δ¹³C occurred in MIS 2, 4, and 6; the MS values in GC02 and winter sea ice (WSI) also exhibited significant decreases and increases, respectively. By controlling the transport of ventilated water mass to deep waters and polar heat transport, in the Indian Ocean, both the change in AABW intensity and the Southern Ocean ice volume result from changes in the AMOC under the orbital modulation background. In the Southwest Indian Ocean, AMOC has a larger effect on ice volume during glacial periods, while its effect on AABW is relatively strong during interglacial periods. Full article

Driven by growing electricity demand, Algeria is diversifying its energy mix with a focus on solar power. A successful transition requires robust climate analysis to guide decision makers and investments. This study investigated the influence of specific weather regimes (WRs) on Algeria’s energy sector, analyzing their summer impacts on solar production, energy demand, and the resulting energy shortfall, expressed as the daily difference between demand and potential solar generation. We further examined the occurrence of Energy Supply Droughts (ESDs), periods when this shortfall exceeds a critical threshold. It was observed that days with a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO−) followed by an Atlantic Ridge (AR) generate a solar surplus and lower demand, creating ideal conditions for energy storage. Conversely, a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO+) reduces production while increasing demand, frequently leading to ESD events. Although generally neutral, Scandinavian Blocking (BL) also contributes to ESDs by amplifying unfavorable energy anomalies. Notably, ESD events associated with NAO+ and BL show strong convergence with similar synoptic configurations and spatial structures. However, while WRs are useful for operational forecasting, predicting extreme ESDs requires an approach that directly targets extreme weather conditions. Full article

Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) populations in the Arctic River Teno (Tana) and other North Atlantic rivers have declined at the same time as pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) have begun to spawn extensively in these rivers in odd-numbered years. In the River Teno, especially, the number of one-sea-year Atlantic salmon ascendants has decreased. In this short review, we assess, based on current information, how the abundance of pink salmon may weaken the survival of Atlantic salmon. Our hypothesis is based on recent evidence from Atlantic salmon in the Baltic Sea showing that the high marine lipid content in the diet of Atlantic salmon post-smolts impairs their growth and survival and is manifested in low numbers of ascendants and in poor thiamine (vitamin B1) status in both juvenile and spawning Baltic salmon. The high energy density of lipids increases the need for thiamine in the metabolism, and the high content of highly unsaturated fatty acids (n–3 HUFAs), like docosahexaenoic acid (DHA, 22:6n–3), in marine fish lipids increases the rate of lipid peroxidation, which consumes thiamine as it acts as an antioxidant against lipid peroxidation. The review presents information that could be used in planning possible future research on the topic. Full article

Based on four datasets (ERA5, JRA-55, MERRA-2, and OAFlux) and the evaporation decomposition method, this study examines the principal spatiotemporal characteristics of North Atlantic evaporation during the cold season (December–May) and warm season (June–November) from 1980 to 2015. The results indicate that during the cold season, all four datasets consistently exhibit a meridional triple pattern, driven primarily by the wind speed term (U*) and the stability term (S*). All datasets reveal a synchronous interdecadal shift around the late 1990s, underscoring the high reliability of cold season evaporation features. In contrast, the dominant evaporation modes during the warm season diverge significantly across datasets. ERA5 and JRA-55 display a dominant zonal triple pattern, whereas this pattern emerges only as a secondary mode in MERRA-2 and OAFlux, with notable discrepancies in both spatial structure and temporal evolution. Warm season patterns are mainly controlled by the relative humidity term (RH*), and the associated uncertainties can be attributed to differences in how the various datasets characterize RH* under global warming. This study demonstrates that the cold season evaporation characteristics over the North Atlantic are highly credible, offering a robust foundation for mechanistic studies. Conversely, warm season results exhibit sensitivity to dataset selection, necessitating rigorous uncertainty assessment in future studies. Our findings provide a scientific basis for data selection and seasonal differential analysis in related research. Full article

This review synthesizes current knowledge on the biology and ecology of the small cyclopoid copepod Oithona similis, a prevalent planktonic species in the Barents Sea, during the period of Arctic warming since the early 2000s. The region serves as an effective model system for examining the influence of different water masses on Arctic zooplankton dynamics. The highest abundances and biomass of Oithona similis are observed in Murmansk Coastal Waters (MCW) and Arctic Waters (ArW). Although its contribution to total zooplankton biomass is generally lower than that of higher copepod taxa, it can account for up to 27–35% seasonally and regionally. Ovigerous females are most abundant in Novaya Zemlya Waters (NZW) and ArW. Egg production rates exhibit a decreasing trend from south to north across the sea. Morphometric analyses reveal an increase in prosome length for both sexes, while relative antenna size diminishes from the south (MCW) to the north (ArW). The highest mortality rates occur during summer, coinciding with peak abundances of Oithona similis, its predators, and parasites, as well as increased interspecific competition. Based on morphological and reproductive parameters, three distinct populations are delineated within the Barents Sea: southern (MCW), central (Atlantic Water/Barents Sea Water), and northern/eastern (ArW/NZW), with respective life cycle durations of 11–12, 9–10, and 11 months, and typically one to two generations per year. The primary environmental drivers influencing population abundance, biomass, size, and reproduction are temperature and salinity, while chlorophyll a concentration predominantly affects mortality rates. Full article

Background: Nearshoring has risen after shocks and policy shifts. We synthesize evidence in a compact loop linking triggers (trade frictions, supply-chain risk, new agreements) to location choices mediated by multidimensional proximity (geographic, institutional, organizational, social, cognitive, functional) to components (manufacturing footprint, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), employment) and outcomes (spillovers, productivity, innovation) conditioned by absorptive capacity and institutions. Methods: We conducted a literature review using major bibliographic databases. A staged screening pipeline (deduplication, pre-eligibility, and title–abstract screening) preceded full-text coding aligned with the review framework (triggers, proximity, components, outcomes, mediators). Studies were appraised with a five-criterion checklist, and themes were consolidated with basic bibliometric checks. Results: Evidence is North Atlantic and manufacturing-centric. Supply-chain disruptions dominate triggers; non-geographic proximity strongly moderates relocation. FDI anchors ecosystems, while employment effects are lagged and compositional. Strong capability and policy mixes yield broader spillovers; otherwise, benefits remain enclave-like. Sustainability and transformative outcomes are rarely assessed. Conclusions: The loop clarifies feedback from outcomes to future siting. Firms should build proximity beyond geography and pair early FDI with supplier and skills upgrading; policymakers should align instruments to governance, capability formation, and logistics. Research should expand Global South coverage and integrate environmental and inclusion metrics. Full article

Nudging remains a cost-effective data assimilation technique in coupled climate models, yet conventional schemes with fixed spatial strengths struggle to represent heterogeneous ocean processes. This study introduces an adaptive nudging framework in which a spatially varying gain matrix dynamically balances model and observational errors, providing a more physically consistent determination of nudging coefficients. Implemented in the SPEEDY-NEMO coupled model, the method is systematically evaluated against a traditional latitude-dependent scheme. Results show substantial improvements in subsurface temperature assimilation across key regions, including the Niño3.4, tropical Indian Ocean, North Pacific, North Atlantic, and northeastern Pacific. The most pronounced gains occur above and within the thermocline, where strong stratification renders fixed nudging strengths inadequate, yielding a 20–30% reduction in RMSE and a 30–50% increase in correlation. In mid- to high-latitude regions, improvements extend to greater depths, consistent with deeper thermocline structures. The adaptive framework corrects both systematic bias and variance, enhancing not only the mean state but also variability representation. Additional benefits are found in salinity, currents, and sea surface height, demonstrating that spatially adaptive nudging provides a more effective and practical alternative for improving ocean state estimation in coupled models. Full article

Invasive species are a recurring global problem, and the water hyacinth (Pontederia crassipes) is a well-known example. Various strategies have been explored to manage its spread, including its use as an agricultural amendment. However, when P. crassipes biomass is incorporated into soil and undergoes degradation, it may increase soil conductivity and promote metal leaching, potentially affecting soil biota, particularly microbiota. Saprophytic fungi play a key role in the decomposition and renewal of organic matter, and their resilience to stressors is crucial for maintaining soil function. Thus, the aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of P. crassipes biomass extracts on the saprophytic fungus Trametes versicolor by evaluating fungal growth and metabolic changes [including sugar content, phosphatase enzymatic activity, and reactive oxygen species (ROS) production]. The fungus was exposed for 8 days to a dilution series of extracts (100%—undiluted, to 3.13%) prepared from P. crassipes biomass collected at five locations in Portuguese wetlands. Two sites were in the south, within a Mediterranean climate (Sorraia and Estação Experimental António Teixeira), and three were in the north, within an Atlantic climate (São João de Loure, Pateira de Fermentelos, and Vila Valente), representing both agricultural-runoff–impacted areas and recreational zones. Extracts were used to simulate a worst-case scenario. All extracts have shown high conductivity (≥15.4 mS/cm), and several elements have shown a high soluble fraction (e.g., K, P, As, or Ba), indicating substantial leaching from the biomass to the extracts. Despite this, T. versicolor growth rates were generally not inhibited, except for exposure to the São João de Loure extract, where an EC₅₀ of 45.3% (extract dilution) was determined and a significant sugar content decrease was observed at extract concentrations ≥25%. Possibly due to the high phosphorous leachability, both acid and alkaline phosphatase activities increased significantly at the highest percentages tested (50% and 100%). Furthermore, ROS levels increased with increasing extract concentrations, yet marginal changes were observed in growth rates, suggesting that T. versicolor may efficiently regulate its intracellular redox balance under stress conditions. Overall, these findings indicate that the degradation of P. crassipes biomass in soils, while altering chemical properties and releasing soluble elements, may not impair and could even boost microbiota, namely saprophytic fungi. This resilience highlights the potential ecological benefit of saprophytic fungi in accelerating the decomposition of invasive plant residues and contribution to soil nutrient cycling and ecosystem recovery. Full article

This study investigates five catastrophic historical floods of the Tripero stream, a small tributary of the Guadiana River that flows through Villafranca de los Barros (Extremadura, Spain), occurring between 1865 and 1952. Despite their devastating impacts on the local population and infrastructure, these events have received little scientific attention. By combining historical documentary evidence with meteorological reanalysis data from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CRv3), this research reconstructs the circumstances and atmospheric mechanisms associated with each event. The results reveal a notable diversity of synoptic configurations, reflecting both seasonal variability and the distinct meteorological origins of the floods. The 1865 and 1876 events were associated with large-scale Atlantic disturbances—the former linked to a cut-off low and moisture transport resembling an atmospheric river, and the latter to a strongly negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase and other atmospheric river, producing widespread flooding across southwestern Iberia. In contrast, the floods of 1903, 1949, and 1952 were triggered by intense convective activity, typical of late spring and summer thunderstorms, fueled by local moisture and instability. The combination of historical sources and modern reanalysis provides valuable insights into the climatological context of extreme hydrometeorological events in small Mediterranean basins, contributing to improved understanding of local flood risks in historically understudied regions. Full article

Large-scale climatic oscillations (COs) modulate extreme climate events (ECEs) globally and can trigger the Indian summer monsoons and associated ECEs. In this study, we introduced a Time-dependent Intrinsic Correlation (TDIC) analysis to quantify teleconnections between five major COs—the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)—and multiple extreme climate indices (ECIs) over the southern Indian Peninsula. Complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) was employed to decompose COs and ECIs into intrinsic mode functions across varying timescales, enabling a dynamic TDIC assessment. The results revealed statistically significant correlations between COs and ECIs, with the strongest influences in low-frequency modes (>10 years). Distinct COs predominantly modulate specific ECIs (e.g., ENSO with monsoon rainfall extremes; AMO and PDO with temperature extremes). These findings advance the understanding of Indian climate system dynamics and support the development of improved ECE forecasting models. Full article

The South China Sea (SCS) sea surface temperature (SST) plays a crucial modulating effect on the climate of East Asia. While the interannual variability of South China Sea SST has been extensively examined, the decadal-scale linkages and underlying physical mechanisms between South China Sea SST and the three major ocean basins (the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans) remain inadequately comprehended. To fill the gap, the study investigates the decadal variability of winter SST in the SCS during 1940–2023, utilizing long-term observational datasets and methods such as empirical orthogonal function decomposition, regression analysis, and teleconnections analysis. The first dominant mode of this decadal variability is characterized by basin-warming across the SCS, which is mainly driven by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO, r = 0.62, p < 0.05). Specifically, the AMO imposes its remote influence on the SCS through three distinct pathways: the tropical Pacific pathway, the North Pacific pathway, and the tropical Indian Ocean pathway. These pathways collectively trigger an anomalous cyclone in the western North Pacific and SCS, and further induce basin-wide SST warming via a positive feedback that includes SST, sea level pressure, cloud cover, and longwave radiation. The second leading mode of SCS winter SST decadal variability displays a north–south dipole pattern, which is positively correlated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO, r1 = 0.85, p1 < 0.05). Notably, this South China Sea SST dipole–IPO relationship weakened significantly after 1985 (r2 = 0.23, p2 < 0.05), related to the strengthening of the anomalous anticyclone over the SCS and the weakening of the anomalous cyclone over the tropical Indian Ocean. Furthermore, both the AMO and IPO influence the SST in the northern SCS by regulating wind field anomalies in the bifurcation region of the North Equatorial Current. This wind-driven modulation subsequently affects the intensity of Kuroshio intrusion into the SCS. These findings provide a novel mechanistic pathway for interpreting decadal-scale climate variability over East Asia, with implications for improving long-term climate prediction in the region. Full article

The causes of Arctic surface air temperature rise and the corresponding sea ice decline in the early 20th century are still a matter of debate. One hypothesis, considering the major contribution of the internal variability to the early warming event, is the leading one. This study aims to assess the contributions of the Northern Hemisphere’s leading natural variability modes to winter temperature changes in the Arctic during 20th century. Two methodologies were compared to remove externally forced signals from Arctic SAT observations—linear detrending and subtracting the multi-model ensemble mean, thereby isolating internal variability. The study introduces a novel perspective on regional evaluation across four equal-area Arctic sectors (European, Asian, Pacific, and North Atlantic), uncovering a heterogeneous spatial pattern of the Arctic SAT modulation by climate indices. Statistical analysis reveals northern extratropical modes explain 66% (median) of total variance, with dominance of AMO index in HadCRUT5 detrended observations and only 30% with PDO index prominent in observations-CMIP6 residuals. It is revealed that forced-signal removal data outperforms the detrending procedure in isolating unforced internal dynamics. AMO’s susceptibility to external forcings like greenhouse gases/aerosols is also underscored by the results of the study. Future directions advocate dynamic approaches like large initial-condition ensembles prescribing sea surface temperature/sea ice or isolating modes for causal attribution beyond statistical links. Full article

Lagrangian Coherent Structures (LCSs) in the mesoscale circulation of the Western Equatorial Atlantic (WEA), a region governed by the North Brazil Current (NBC) and its retroflection, are analyzed. Observations from 63 surface drifters deployed between 2018 and 2019 were combined with ocean analysis/forecast fields. The Finite-Time Lyapunov Exponent (FTLE) was computed using 15- and 90-day integrations to identify transport barriers and persistent structures. FTLE ridges showed strong seasonal correspondence with drifter trajectories, with 34–74% of drifter positions lying within 0.25° of attracting or repelling LCSs. Characteristic FTLE magnitudes reached ~0.3 d⁻¹, implying particle separation e-folding times of approximately 3.3 days. Spatial agreement between drifter-derived and model-based FTLE fields exhibited similar variability across seasons, with the highest correspondence during periods of intensified frontal activity. These results indicate that a substantial portion of the observed drifter motion follows or remains close to FTLE-defined pathways, supporting the robustness of the Lagrangian structures identified in the WEA. Overall, the study provides the first quantitative LCS-based characterization of mesoscale transport in this region, revealing recurrent eddies, instability zones, and flow boundaries associated with the NBC system and its interaction with the North Equatorial Countercurrent. Full article